Will Ah Yat Struggle

[BOBCATBORN]

I’m a bit surprised to not see this talked about at all yet. But considering Ah Yat arguably had one of the worst games of the season against the Cats at home I figured it was worth a discussion.

1. This is truly his first hostile crowd all year. Its going to be loud, it has even higher stakes than game 1. This generally leads to rushed pre-snap reads, late protection adjustments, heavier reliance on first read, and fewer deep-developig concepts.

2. Prior game stats taken into account. He threw 1 interception (one of the few balls he threw over the middle). Note that lot of his passes were short dump off routes that were “given” to the offense. He took 2 sacks in that game and I would think he takes that many or more due to item #1 above in this upcoming game. He performed less than his season averages at home, so do we think he’ll perform better on the road? Tough battle there.

3. MSUs strength and pressure profile matches his weakness. We all know we win with 4 and don’t blitz. We collapse the pocket and rush QB’s into throwing sooner than they want. That generally makes protections become simpler, hot routes get rushed, and edge pressures arrive “unexpectedly” due to late snaps. And again to point #1 - noise makes this worse.

4. Converting 3rd and longs. UM got us on a few 3rd and longs in the first game, the above items are going to make it harder in game 2. If we stop a couple of those the game isn’t nearly as close.

With all that said, my estimation for his performance -
- Completion percentage to drop 10-12% - make it around 68-70%
- 2-4 sacks (also into the coldest turf hes played on all year)
- 1-2 turnovers (fumble sack or an interception)
- 190 - 220 yards passing
- a 120 Rating

[GoodTimesAllTheTime]

It’s such a small sample size, but his stats have been worse on the road than at home. I’m curious to see how their offense operates on the whole. During the first Cat-Griz, they had a ton of high snaps, and I noticed the same issue last week. In front of a hostile crowd, do one or two of those become fumbles?

[cats2506]

Add in:

Since Cat/Griz he has been wearing a knee brace, I guess the injury happened in our game. One of the key plays in their game was a 18 yd TD run from him. Now he is in a brace, he knows these are the guys that wacked him and he doesn't run as much since then. He has become more of a stationary QB much like Vidlak or Bauman, I think it plays in his head and is beneficial to our defensive front.

[Catsrgrood]

I wouldn’t expect him to necessarily struggle, but I would expect him to perform below his season averages.

It’s a valid thing to bring up that their offense has been good this year, but 10 of those 14 games have been in the friendly confines of wagriz. And the other 4 have not exactly been historically tough places to play. This will be unlike anything they’ve experienced this year.

That’s why it’s important for the fans to be extra engaged Saturday. Make sure it’s an environment they never forget.

[TomCat88]

Bobcatnation.com is the only place this will be discussed. Carry on.

[BOBCATBORN]

Bobcatnation.com is the only place this will be discussed. Carry on.

100% truth. Last go round it was all about how Lamson would do. But according to Tootell since the teams have already played the crowd/environment will have zero impact on the gris - because thats logical.

[WalkOn79]

He'll struggle if we hit him about 25 times.

[aucat]

Frankly, I was really surprised that SFA didn't seem to be affected by our crowd. There were plenty of times that the crowd was yelling our heads off prior to the snap but they had no problems---no false starts. We, on the other hand, had SEVEN false starts, though my understanding is it was because SFA was illegally yelling and clapping at the line of scrimmage.

Of course, the crowd noise this Saturday will be at a different level.

[GoldstoneCat]

Bobcatnation.com is the only place this will be discussed. Carry on.

100% truth. Last go round it was all about how Lamson would do. But according to Tootell since the teams have already played the crowd/environment will have zero impact on the gris - because thats logical.

So illogical. But here's my take. Going into missoula, we knew both QBs were good, accurate, and had a good handle on the offense. The pressure was on Lamson to prove not only that he's good, but that he's "him" as the kids say. Lamson proved that that day. He's got the street cred now that a win over there confers. Ah Yat added another data point that day that he's a very good QB that can execute a game plan. But there's no evidence that he's a leader of men capable of carrying his unit to a win in a hostile environment or in upset fashion. Personally I think if we can show him a different picture post- snap a few times, take his first read away and hit him early, I think he could melt. Maybe he'll come in and be dominant and earn that street cred but I'll take my chances with Lamson.

[catatac]

Frankly, I was really surprised that SFA didn't seem to be affected by our crowd. There were plenty of times that the crowd was yelling our heads off prior to the snap but they had no problems---no false starts. We, on the other hand, had SEVEN false starts, though my understanding is it was because SFA was illegally yelling and clapping at the line of scrimmage.

Of course, the crowd noise this Saturday will be at a different level.

Ya, the false starts are a whole different discussion. But, the crowd noise isn't just about causing them to false start, there's a lot more to it than that - and it definitely impacted the game. It will definitely impact the game this weekend, even if it doesn't cause them to jump\false start (I'd bet a lot of money they will in this one).

[TomCat88]

Bobcatnation.com is the only place this will be discussed. Carry on.

100% truth. Last go round it was all about how Lamson would do. But according to Tootell since the teams have already played the crowd/environment will have zero impact on the gris - because thats logical.

Lamson got that treatment because he's a fiery, transfer from California playing in WGS. True freshmen Lulay and Murray, RS frosh McGhee and true soph Andersen have four of the five wins at WGS in the last 8 games there (junior Bleskin, junior McKay and junior Mellott lost). QBs to win in Bozeman are sophomore Jordan Johnson in 2011 and 2013, and Brady Gustafson (junior?) in 2015. QBs that lost: Jensen, Sneed, Johnson, Fife.

[BlueAndGoldNation]

So, do we go press-man and send a blitz on 3rd down to make him uncomfortable? I know that is risky if the pressure doesn't get there fast enough, but I don't think we did that at all during 1.0... that led to AhYat throwing short underneath routes on 3rd down to convert relatively easily on our soft zone CBs playing 10 yards off the line. I feel like playing press to disrupt the rhythm of the quick throws, combined with the pressure of 5-6 rushers, and the hostile noise of Bobcat Stadium, it might lead to some big change of momentum sacks/INTs/fumbles.

Ah Yat has definitely never been away at a place like Bobcat Stadium, nor has he ever played in such a high stakes game(neither has Wortham or half of their team of transfer starters)... I do think he is on pace to be the Griz best QB of the last 10-15 years. But I'd be surprised if we don't see some growing pains in this game for him

[ClowderUp]

Yes. Not for the entirety of the afternoon, but he will struggle.

[rfischer94]

Bobcatnation.com is the only place this will be discussed. Carry on.

100% truth. Last go round it was all about how Lamson would do. But according to Tootell since the teams have already played the crowd/environment will have zero impact on the gris - because thats logical.

Marty said something similar on Colter's show on Monday. Basically, since the home team lost last time, home field doesn't matter. Now let's be clear -- Marty has forgotten more about football than I will ever know. But this one is just wishful thinking, plain and simple.

[Randy M Drivel]

So, do we go press-man and send a blitz on 3rd down to limit the time he has to throw? I know that is risky if the pressure doesn't get there fast enough, but I don't think we did that at all during 1.0...

Actually we did it on the pick six. Maybe not straight press coverage, but we blitzed off the left side and he forced it to Wortham - clearly his first read - when Shafer was wide open on the other side due to the blitz.

[seataccat]

So, do we go press-man and send a blitz on 3rd down to make him uncomfortable? I know that is risky if the pressure doesn't get there fast enough, but I don't think we did that at all during 1.0... that led to AhYat throwing short underneath routes on 3rd down to convert relatively easily on our soft zone CBs playing 10 yards off the line. I feel like playing press to disrupt the rhythm of the quick throws, combined with the pressure of 5-6 rushers, and the hostile noise of Bobcat Stadium, it might lead to some big change of momentum sacks/INTs/fumbles.

Ah Yat has definitely never been away at a place like Bobcat Stadium, nor has he ever played in such a high stakes game(neither has Wortham or half of their team of transfer starters)... I do think he is on pace to be the Griz best QB of the last 10-15 years. But I'd be surprised if we don't see some growing pains in this game for him

This is my though process as well. It seems the conventional wisdom is to sit in cover 2 and make the griz earn every yard. Hoping they will make a mistake. But this IMHO is not the best strategy to play at home. The chances that their skill players make something out of nothing are just as high as them making mistakes as the cats sit in soft zone. The bobcat secondary players are good tacklers and capable of playing man. I say play press man predominantly and let them try to execute under pressure instead of waiting for a mistake. Let the guys fly around and play loose.

[mslacatfan]

Well it goes without saying that Ah Yat is vastly overrated, struggled mightily in cat/griz round 1, and will most likely have a bad day this weekend.

I think even most griz fans would agree with that…

[VimSince03]

If he does, the Griz have no shot. If he plays good (which I thought he played for the first game), the Griz defense will still have to uphold its end of the bargain. If he plays great, MSU's offense will have to have a great day OR limit possessions and value scoring on every one of theirs.

[VimSince03]

So, do we go press-man and send a blitz on 3rd down to make him uncomfortable? I know that is risky if the pressure doesn't get there fast enough, but I don't think we did that at all during 1.0... that led to AhYat throwing short underneath routes on 3rd down to convert relatively easily on our soft zone CBs playing 10 yards off the line. I feel like playing press to disrupt the rhythm of the quick throws, combined with the pressure of 5-6 rushers, and the hostile noise of Bobcat Stadium, it might lead to some big change of momentum sacks/INTs/fumbles.

Ah Yat has definitely never been away at a place like Bobcat Stadium, nor has he ever played in such a high stakes game(neither has Wortham or half of their team of transfer starters)... I do think he is on pace to be the Griz best QB of the last 10-15 years. But I'd be surprised if we don't see some growing pains in this game for him

This is my though process as well. It seems the conventional wisdom is to sit in cover 2 and make the griz earn every yard. Hoping they will make a mistake. But this IMHO is not the best strategy to play at home. The chances that their skill players make something out of nothing are just as high as them making mistakes as the cats sit in soft zone. The bobcat secondary players are good tacklers and capable of playing man. I say play press man predominantly and let them try to execute under pressure instead of waiting for a mistake. Let the guys fly around and play loose.

Ah Yat also has a bad knee right now and is NOT looking to run in any formidable way. That was a big part of their success in 1.0 as he picked up several first downs with his legs and scored a brilliant touchdown on the ground. Sit in that shelf and make them earn every f***ing yard.

[seataccat]

So, do we go press-man and send a blitz on 3rd down to make him uncomfortable? I know that is risky if the pressure doesn't get there fast enough, but I don't think we did that at all during 1.0... that led to AhYat throwing short underneath routes on 3rd down to convert relatively easily on our soft zone CBs playing 10 yards off the line. I feel like playing press to disrupt the rhythm of the quick throws, combined with the pressure of 5-6 rushers, and the hostile noise of Bobcat Stadium, it might lead to some big change of momentum sacks/INTs/fumbles.

Ah Yat has definitely never been away at a place like Bobcat Stadium, nor has he ever played in such a high stakes game(neither has Wortham or half of their team of transfer starters)... I do think he is on pace to be the Griz best QB of the last 10-15 years. But I'd be surprised if we don't see some growing pains in this game for him

This is my though process as well. It seems the conventional wisdom is to sit in cover 2 and make the griz earn every yard. Hoping they will make a mistake. But this IMHO is not the best strategy to play at home. The chances that their skill players make something out of nothing are just as high as them making mistakes as the cats sit in soft zone. The bobcat secondary players are good tacklers and capable of playing man. I say play press man predominantly and let them try to execute under pressure instead of waiting for a mistake. Let the guys fly around and play loose.

Ah Yat also has a bad knee right now and is NOT looking to run in any formidable way. That was a big part of their success in 1.0 as he picked up several first downs with his legs and scored a brilliant touchdown on the ground. Sit in that shelf and make them earn every f***ing yard.

I guess we'll agree to disagree. Having less mobility is all the more reason to put the pressure on him. I guess we shall see what happens.