Facts Vs. Narrative

[MrGoodKat]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

[Colter_Nuanez]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

[MrGoodKat]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

And I love you.

[CelticCat]

On one hand the Griz tout the importance of WA Griz and how hard it is to win there but on the other hand they completely dismiss the fact that hardly anybody wins in Bozeman either. I've read and listened to a lot of Griz chat so far and it's rarely been mentioned.

[jhopmsu79]

Damn those are great facts!

[MSUcat44]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

@HookedOnGriz here’s all the comments griz fans are talking about… thought I’d let you in on it. You probably have read it already since you live on this website

[Bobcat Sig]

I'm smellin' what you're cookin'!

While there is pressure on our boys being at home and the favorite, it's only a small part, as you've astutely outlined.

Cats by 14

[TomCat88]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

Dang it!! I wanted to use it on our podcast.

[MrGoodKat]

I'm smellin' what you're cookin'!

While there is pressure on our boys being at home and the favorite, it's only a small part, as you've astutely outlined.

Cats by 14

I think there's a ton of pressure on both teams.

This has never happened and it's for maybe the best shot at a chipper that either team will ever see.

[BlueAndGoldNation]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

It was such a good post in fact that I used it in a response to a Griz fan on one of your YouTube comment sections Colter! I told him even though the Griz are fully capable of pulling an upset, he should not to be too confident, and presented him with these facts beautifully listed up above. He didn't seem to be a fan of it. Pointing to the fact they beat a "FULLY HEALTHY" SDSU team that beat us at home earlier in the year... He also stated the fact they should have won in Missoula by 14... He also thought that Yale was sh** even though they have 5 All Americans, and that we beat a bad TARLETON team...(Yeah... I know... Big brain) My word some people just don't listen to facts and like to make up fantasies don't they?

[MrGoodKat]

On one hand the Griz tout the importance of WA Griz and how hard it is to win there but on the other hand they completely dismiss the fact that hardly anybody wins in Bozeman either. I've read and listened to a lot of Griz chat so far and it's rarely been mentioned.

Yeah, it's bizarre.

Griz fans told me heading into Brawl 1.0 that Wa. Griz is worth at least 7 points. And I actually agree with them and it made me incredibly uncertain of a victory over there. But then after the game was over, the narrative was "well, it was only a 3 point game so we're basically even." The notion that the home field is worth a touchdown had evaporated.

[BelligerentBobcat]

I'm smellin' what you're cookin'!

While there is pressure on our boys being at home and the favorite, it's only a small part, as you've astutely outlined.

Cats by 14

I think there's a ton of pressure on both teams.

This has never happened and it's for maybe the best shot at a chipper that either team will ever see.

Both coaches, and players from both teams, have really tried to downplay the rivalry aspect of this game. They're very much focusing on the fact that whoever wins gets to go to the Natty. I'm sure some of that is just media talking points for them, but they definitely know what's at stake. For any fan to say there's no pressure on either team is wild.

[cats2506]

I'm smellin' what you're cookin'!

While there is pressure on our boys being at home and the favorite, it's only a small part, as you've astutely outlined.

Cats by 14

I think there's a ton of pressure on both teams.

This has never happened and it's for maybe the best shot at a chipper that either team will ever see.

Both coaches, and players from both teams, have really tried to downplay the rivalry aspect of this game. They're very much focusing on the fact that whoever wins gets to go to the Natty. I'm sure some of that is just media talking points for them, but they definitely know what's at stake. For any fan to say there's no pressure on either team is wild.

That is because this is the NATIONAL SEMI-FINALS, yes it is against our rival, but it is primarily the semi finals game

[wbtfg]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

And I love you.

Get a room!

[PortlandCat90]

Statistics/Odds of Events

93% - Brent Vigen winning a conference game
67% - Being involved in a drunk driving accident
66% - Bobby Hauck winning a conference game
51% - Getting divorced
33% - Developing cancer
33% - Season wins vacated by the Pandas cheating scandal in 2011
33% - Having your home catch fire
23% - Bobby Hauck winning any game as UNLV coach
17% - Getting food poisoning from a restaurant
10% - Developing Alzheimer’s disease
2.8% - Chances that a 30-year-old male has never had sex
0.6% - Getting robbed at gunpoint
0.3% - Testing a perfect SAT
0.2% - Being born with 11 fingers or toes
0.0% - Odds of you dating a Supermodel
0.0% - Panda’s road playoff wins since O.J. Simpson was sentenced
0.0% - Bobby Hauck wins in Bozeman since Michael Jackson’s death

[aucat]

Just RUN the damn ball!! That last 8 minute drive in Missoula was a thing of beauty

[cats2506]

Just RUN the damn ball!! That last 8 minute drive in Missoula was a thing of beauty

Nothing hurts like having a team do an 8 min drive and kneel it in the redzone as time expires.

[tdub]

I'm smellin' what you're cookin'!

While there is pressure on our boys being at home and the favorite, it's only a small part, as you've astutely outlined.

Cats by 14

I think there's a ton of pressure on both teams.

This has never happened and it's for maybe the best shot at a chipper that either team will ever see.

Both coaches, and players from both teams, have really tried to downplay the rivalry aspect of this game. They're very much focusing on the fact that whoever wins gets to go to the Natty. I'm sure some of that is just media talking points for them, but they definitely know what's at stake. For any fan to say there's no pressure on either team is wild.

That is because this is the NATIONAL SEMI-FINALS, yes it is against our rival, but it is primarily the semi finals game

I totally concur with this. This whole thing feels different to me than The Brawl. During the regular season, it’s 100% about winning the rivalry game. There’s benefits that come along with that, but that’s the primary goal. Own the state, get the trophy, bragging rights, recruiting, all that jazz. Now this time around, the primary goal is to get to Nashville, it just happens to be against your rival. I think ‘who’ each team is playing against is far less important to the teams than it is to us fans.

I actually find myself having more natural respect for the gris in the semis coming into Bobcat Stadium this time around. Way more so than their 2023 run where it felt like they lucked (or “Bergened”) their way to the title game. It feels like they belong in this game. I, strangely, kinda like it this way.

[OldGriz]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

I disregard the narrative — the spin you say you are hearing out of Missoula. As for the 8 facts that you list, your so-called objective arguments — arguments for what? I mean, do any of the 8 facts have a material impact (statistical or otherwise) on a future game outcome? I’m searching for what you’re trying to say.

[ilovethecats]

On one hand the Griz tout the importance of WA Griz and how hard it is to win there but on the other hand they completely dismiss the fact that hardly anybody wins in Bozeman either. I've read and listened to a lot of Griz chat so far and it's rarely been mentioned.

Because in Missoula it’s still 2000 and the Mecca is the only stadium that provides a lot of noise and a hostile environment.