Can the Cats & Griz Get It Done?

[bsnwhespen23]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

[Bocephus]

Interesting article in regards to meeting a team twice in the same season. “More sweeps than splits.”

https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/sports ... 42364.html

[MrGoodKat]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

It happens literally all the time.

[tetoncat]

The thing about the interception is that it's normal for a QB to throw them. It is part of the game, and Ah Yat has done a pretty good job of not throwing them this year but he had thrown 7 before that 8th one to Dowler.

Unless your name is Justin Lamson, then throwing interceptions is normal. According to PFF using their TWP% metric (turnover worthy play rate - the % of attempts that have a high % chance to be intercepted), Lamson is second in the FCS at just .8, behind Jacolby Criswell of ETSU who only played 8 games. Ah Yat is 24th (2.1) which is still really good.

I hear you, it wasn’t just the interception. It was the timing of it and the fact that it turned into a pick 6. That was absolutely huge for the cats and devastating for the Griz. The Griz fell behind 17-7 and had scored right before half to get it to 17-14. Scored coming out of half to go up 21-17 and made that stop on defense. I truly believe if they get the ball there and go down and score that might be it. Instead, they throw a pick 6 and it changed everything IMO. even if they have to punt that ball away and make the cats drive again, who knows what could’ve happened. Anyways that’s why I point to that pick 6 being pretty detrimental.

To flip the script if Cats recover Worthams fumble to open 2nd half and score TD it completely changes how the 3rd quarter plays out.

[LynxRufus]

The thing about the interception is that it's normal for a QB to throw them. It is part of the game, and Ah Yat has done a pretty good job of not throwing them this year but he had thrown 7 before that 8th one to Dowler.

Unless your name is Justin Lamson, then throwing interceptions is normal. According to PFF using their TWP% metric (turnover worthy play rate - the % of attempts that have a high % chance to be intercepted), Lamson is second in the FCS at just .8, behind Jacolby Criswell of ETSU who only played 8 games. Ah Yat is 24th (2.1) which is still really good.

I hear you, it wasn’t just the interception. It was the timing of it and the fact that it turned into a pick 6. That was absolutely huge for the cats and devastating for the Griz. The Griz fell behind 17-7 and had scored right before half to get it to 17-14. Scored coming out of half to go up 21-17 and made that stop on defense. I truly believe if they get the ball there and go down and score that might be it. Instead, they throw a pick 6 and it changed everything IMO. even if they have to punt that ball away and make the cats drive again, who knows what could’ve happened. Anyways that’s why I point to that pick 6 being pretty detrimental.

Let's just consider for a moment what might have happened if the tipped ball falls harmlessly to the ground, instead of a pick 6. It's 4th and 4 at the UM 23 - you're punting right? Sounds very similar to when UM punted from their own 20 in the 2nd quarter, which was abruptly followed by a 2 play MSU TD drive. Maybe all the pick 6 did was leave a couple extra minutes on the clock for UM to try to get a stop on that last drive of the game. We'll never know, but I'm sure if a rematch happens both teams will remember that last 7 minutes where UM desperately needed a stop and was unable to get it.

And for the narrative that it's hard to beat a team twice. What examples do we have of a college team losing at home only to get revenge against that team on the road a few weeks later? I honestly don't know. I do recall Weber getting revenge on UM a few years ago, but Weber lost at UM and then beat them at home in the playoffs. Maybe the expression should be "It's hard to beat a team that's better than you, no matter how many times you play". Or, maybe Oregon is happy they don't have MSU on their side of the CFP bracket.

[tetoncat]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

It happens literally all the time.

Cats did it vs Idaho and Weber in recent playoffs. Both times won at home in regular season and playoffs. I can see where maybe lose on road then get playoff game at home it might increase odds?

[MrGoodKat]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

It happens literally all the time.

Cats did it vs Idaho and Weber in recent playoffs. Both times won at home in regular season and playoffs. I can see where maybe lose on road then get playoff game at home it might increase odds?

Yeah it’s extremely common. It’s just an easy thing to say.

[ilovethecats]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

It happens literally all the time.

Cats did it vs Idaho and Weber in recent playoffs. Both times won at home in regular season and playoffs. I can see where maybe lose on road then get playoff game at home it might increase odds?

Yeah it’s extremely common. It’s just an easy thing to say.

It's literally only something that fans of the team that lost the first game say.

[Prodigal Cat]

The thing about the interception is that it's normal for a QB to throw them. It is part of the game, and Ah Yat has done a pretty good job of not throwing them this year but he had thrown 7 before that 8th one to Dowler.

Unless your name is Justin Lamson, then throwing interceptions is normal. According to PFF using their TWP% metric (turnover worthy play rate - the % of attempts that have a high % chance to be intercepted), Lamson is second in the FCS at just .8, behind Jacolby Criswell of ETSU who only played 8 games. Ah Yat is 24th (2.1) which is still really good.

I hear you, it wasn’t just the interception. It was the timing of it and the fact that it turned into a pick 6. That was absolutely huge for the cats and devastating for the Griz. The Griz fell behind 17-7 and had scored right before half to get it to 17-14. Scored coming out of half to go up 21-17 and made that stop on defense. I truly believe if they get the ball there and go down and score that might be it. Instead, they throw a pick 6 and it changed everything IMO. even if they have to punt that ball away and make the cats drive again, who knows what could’ve happened. Anyways that’s why I point to that pick 6 being pretty detrimental.

Let's just consider for a moment what might have happened if the tipped ball falls harmlessly to the ground, instead of a pick 6. It's 4th and 4 at the UM 23 - you're punting right? Sounds very similar to when UM punted from their own 20 in the 2nd quarter, which was abruptly followed by a 2 play MSU TD drive. Maybe all the pick 6 did was leave a couple extra minutes on the clock for UM to try to get a stop on that last drive of the game. We'll never know, but I'm sure if a rematch happens both teams will remember that last 7 minutes where UM desperately needed a stop and was unable to get it.

And for the narrative that it's hard to beat a team twice. What examples do we have of a college team losing at home only to get revenge against that team on the road a few weeks later? I honestly don't know. I do recall Weber getting revenge on UM a few years ago, but Weber lost at UM and then beat them at home in the playoffs. Maybe the expression should be "It's hard to beat a team that's better than you, no matter how many times you play". Or, maybe Oregon is happy they don't have MSU on their side of the CFP bracket.

*cough Illinois St/NDSU *cough

[MrGoodKat]

If the Cats won the first game at home by pulling out all the stops and finding ways to take UM off guard AND the second game was in Missoula, I could see the argument.

But the fact is that the first game was on their field and they were the ones needing to get creative to overcome LOS discrepancies.

Now it will be in Bozeman and the Cats have already seen how they will try to work around their offensive line. The factors all favor the Cats. They know this and they’re scared.

[OldGriz]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

It happens literally all the time.

Cats did it vs Idaho and Weber in recent playoffs. Both times won at home in regular season and playoffs. I can see where maybe lose on road then get playoff game at home it might increase odds?

Yeah it’s extremely common. It’s just an easy thing to say.

It's literally only something that fans of the team that lost the first game say.

Agree. But there are some interesting citations if you AI this one (e.g., ask Chat GPT “is it hard to beat a team twice in a college football revenge game?”). Their answer is the team that won the first game has somewhere between a 60% and 70% chance of winning the second game, unless (interestingly), the first game was played on the losing team’s home field. In that case, the odds flip to 50% (dead even) when the rematch for the loser is either on the road or a neutral field. I don’t necessarily believe in this hocus pocus, but you can easily check it out for yourselves.

[LynxRufus]

The thing about the interception is that it's normal for a QB to throw them. It is part of the game, and Ah Yat has done a pretty good job of not throwing them this year but he had thrown 7 before that 8th one to Dowler.

Unless your name is Justin Lamson, then throwing interceptions is normal. According to PFF using their TWP% metric (turnover worthy play rate - the % of attempts that have a high % chance to be intercepted), Lamson is second in the FCS at just .8, behind Jacolby Criswell of ETSU who only played 8 games. Ah Yat is 24th (2.1) which is still really good.

I hear you, it wasn’t just the interception. It was the timing of it and the fact that it turned into a pick 6. That was absolutely huge for the cats and devastating for the Griz. The Griz fell behind 17-7 and had scored right before half to get it to 17-14. Scored coming out of half to go up 21-17 and made that stop on defense. I truly believe if they get the ball there and go down and score that might be it. Instead, they throw a pick 6 and it changed everything IMO. even if they have to punt that ball away and make the cats drive again, who knows what could’ve happened. Anyways that’s why I point to that pick 6 being pretty detrimental.

Let's just consider for a moment what might have happened if the tipped ball falls harmlessly to the ground, instead of a pick 6. It's 4th and 4 at the UM 23 - you're punting right? Sounds very similar to when UM punted from their own 20 in the 2nd quarter, which was abruptly followed by a 2 play MSU TD drive. Maybe all the pick 6 did was leave a couple extra minutes on the clock for UM to try to get a stop on that last drive of the game. We'll never know, but I'm sure if a rematch happens both teams will remember that last 7 minutes where UM desperately needed a stop and was unable to get it.

And for the narrative that it's hard to beat a team twice. What examples do we have of a college team losing at home only to get revenge against that team on the road a few weeks later? I honestly don't know. I do recall Weber getting revenge on UM a few years ago, but Weber lost at UM and then beat them at home in the playoffs. Maybe the expression should be "It's hard to beat a team that's better than you, no matter how many times you play". Or, maybe Oregon is happy they don't have MSU on their side of the CFP bracket.

*cough Illinois St/NDSU *cough

Ha! That's fair. I guess I manifested my argument a week ago

[MrGoodKat]

The data doesn’t point to anything either way. You have to assess every game in its own.

Who is better between the two? MSU.

Where will the game be? Bozeman.

Who is most likely to win? The Cats.

[ilovethecats]

If the Cats won the first game at home by pulling out all the stops and finding ways to take UM off guard AND the second game was in Missoula, I could see the argument.

But the fact is that the first game was on their field and they were the ones needing to get creative to overcome LOS discrepancies.

Now it will be in Bozeman and the Cats have already seen how they will try to work around their offensive line. The factors all favor the Cats. They know this and they’re scared.

Guess it just depends on ones outlook. I just read yet another poster over there that is convinced the Cats played their best game of the season in Missoula! I guess if you truly believe that, then at the very least you have to like your chances in a rematch.

I just didn't see it that way. Lamson played great but overall we just didn't look great. And I'll give the credit to the griz for some of that for sure. But all this talk that the griz are going to play so much better and we'll play worse than the best we've ever played is just bizarre.

I'll never suggest that the griz couldn't win in Bozeman. They're a good team that is well coached. I'll just personally be very confident if we're lucky enough to get that matchup.

[WalkOn79]

I’m excited at the possibility but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t be nervous as hell about it.

I think the Cats are the better team. They played a good, not great game in Missoula and won. The griz played their best game of the year to date and lost, at home.

But there is clearly not a huge gap between them. Anything can happen on any Saturday. Sure as hell glad it’d be at home.

It would be the sweetest of Cat/gris wins or the absolute worst of Cat/gris losses.
The winner will be the favorite to win it all. That’s a lot riding on a game that is already about as intense as they come.

I keep reading this perspective over here that the Griz played their best game to date against the cats. I would argue I watch way more Griz football than anyone over here, unless you also watch every single play of every single game both live and then back on TV. That was far from the Griz Best game. FFS they threw a pick 6 when they had all the momentum to put the game away, then got a field goal blocked and had a touchdown called back from a pretty weak hold call. Then they couldn’t get off the field on that last 6 minute Cats drive How does any of that contribute to one of their best games? I give their performance against the cats a solid B minus but it definitely was not an A or A plus. Not really close.

Agreed. Could strongly argue SDSU was full throttle for Griz offense once they got the momentum. I think our offense played one of their best games against the Griz but defensively not even close. Would say B- as well. That's why it's such an intriguing match up...and I hope it happens again to see who is "right"!

I think that’s a fair statement

It's not just Cat fans that say it was their best game to date. Colter and Gus have been saying that for 2 weeks, and they watch EVERY Griz game.

[TomCat88]

I’m excited at the possibility but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t be nervous as hell about it.

I think the Cats are the better team. They played a good, not great game in Missoula and won. The griz played their best game of the year to date and lost, at home.

But there is clearly not a huge gap between them. Anything can happen on any Saturday. Sure as hell glad it’d be at home.

It would be the sweetest of Cat/gris wins or the absolute worst of Cat/gris losses.
The winner will be the favorite to win it all. That’s a lot riding on a game that is already about as intense as they come.

I keep reading this perspective over here that the Griz played their best game to date against the cats. I would argue I watch way more Griz football than anyone over here, unless you also watch every single play of every single game both live and then back on TV. That was far from the Griz Best game. FFS they threw a pick 6 when they had all the momentum to put the game away, then got a field goal blocked and had a touchdown called back from a pretty weak hold call. Then they couldn’t get off the field on that last 6 minute Cats drive How does any of that contribute to one of their best games? I give their performance against the cats a solid B minus but it definitely was not an A or A plus. Not really close.

I agree that the Griz didn't play great. The offense scored 28 points, but the Gillman TD should've been called back and if so, it's unlikely UM gets a first down facing 1st and 25. Hard to say. But easily could've been 21 points for the final score and just over 300 yards of offense, which good vs MSU's defense but well below UM's average. Defensively, UM was unable to stop the run for most of the game and the Pick6 caused MSU to give up an offensive possession, which probably cost it another 40-50 yards. I'm not sure how good UM is at stopping the run but that seemed like it was a significantly sub-par performance.

UM looked really, really good from the time it was 17-7 midway through the second quarter to the Pick6. I thought those two drives were the best two drives against MSU this year. Very impressive. Would be interesting to see how the game would've played out if the Pick6 was just an incomplete pass and UM punted. UM also played very hard and scrappy, which was another plus.

I'm looking mostly at Griz road games to get a sense for how they'll play at MSU. Looked great offensively at SAC and ISU. Hot early against WSU and PSU is a hard read will all the turnovers setting up short fields.

[MrGoodKat]

If the Cats won the first game at home by pulling out all the stops and finding ways to take UM off guard AND the second game was in Missoula, I could see the argument.

But the fact is that the first game was on their field and they were the ones needing to get creative to overcome LOS discrepancies.

Now it will be in Bozeman and the Cats have already seen how they will try to work around their offensive line. The factors all favor the Cats. They know this and they’re scared.

Guess it just depends on ones outlook. I just read yet another poster over there that is convinced the Cats played their best game of the season in Missoula! I guess if you truly believe that, then at the very least you have to like your chances in a rematch.

I just didn't see it that way. Lamson played great but overall we just didn't look great. And I'll give the credit to the griz for some of that for sure. But all this talk that the griz are going to play so much better and we'll play worse than the best we've ever played is just bizarre.

I'll never suggest that the griz couldn't win in Bozeman. They're a good team that is well coached. I'll just personally be very confident if we're lucky enough to get that matchup.

They started spinning that narrative immediately. All the breaks went MSU’s way in terms of luck and officiating. In reality, the breaks were very even. Neither team was luckier than the other.

[msugr8]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

And how do you know that? Based on what? Cats have proven they can do it twice in recent years. 3rd time just around the corner.

[TomCat88]

If the Cats won the first game at home by pulling out all the stops and finding ways to take UM off guard AND the second game was in Missoula, I could see the argument.

But the fact is that the first game was on their field and they were the ones needing to get creative to overcome LOS discrepancies.

Now it will be in Bozeman and the Cats have already seen how they will try to work around their offensive line. The factors all favor the Cats. They know this and they’re scared.

Guess it just depends on ones outlook. I just read yet another poster over there that is convinced the Cats played their best game of the season in Missoula! I guess if you truly believe that, then at the very least you have to like your chances in a rematch.

I just didn't see it that way. Lamson played great but overall we just didn't look great. And I'll give the credit to the griz for some of that for sure. But all this talk that the griz are going to play so much better and we'll play worse than the best we've ever played is just bizarre.

I'll never suggest that the griz couldn't win in Bozeman. They're a good team that is well coached. I'll just personally be very confident if we're lucky enough to get that matchup.

They started spinning that narrative immediately. All the breaks went MSU’s way in terms of luck and officiating. In reality, the breaks were very even. Neither team was luckier than the other.

First thing you have to do is define what a "break" is. I don't really think you can call a PR TD or a KO TD or a INT TD a break. But you also can't count on getting those plays game-in and game-out. If, for instance, MSU only managed 3.2 yards per carry all game and Lamson was just 11-19-0, 144 yards, 1 TD, but MSU got the pick6 and blocked FG, then that's more of a break because those plays made up for the inability to move the ball. If MSU doesn't get the Pick6, it doesn't swing the game back in the UM's favor. It just means MSU now has to drive the field, which is something they did show they could do all game. MSU had five good drives in the game: opening drive for FG, two first half TD drives, drive before half that ended in long FG att., drive after blocked FG, and final drive. If MSU hadn't been able to move the ball like but won the game because it got the pick6 and blocked FG for a 14-13 win, then you might be able to say they were breaks.

[TomCat88]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

And how do you know that? Based on what? Cats have proven they can do it twice in recent years. 3rd time just around the corner.

I would think it would hard to beat a team twice if you beat them at home the first time. Next would be if you beat them at home and then played them at home again because the visiting team would be more used to your environment. If you won the first at home and then had to play the second on the road, that would be tough and I bet that's where most of the 'tough to beat the same team twice' games come into play.

MSU beat Idaho twice last year, the second time was worse than the first; MSU beat WSU twice in 2022 and the second time was a more comfortable win that first when MSU was down 24-9 in the second quarter.