Playing them again

[nanacat]

Not sure how many watched Bobby's press conference yesterday, it was only 13 minutes long so won't interrupt your day too much, and he basically said nothing, except one thing that kind of stuck out... he mentioned possibly seeing the Cats again in playoffs. In Colter's post about the brawl he highlighted that and wondered what Bobby meant by that? Kind of wish one of the journalists would have jumped on that and asked for clarification.

Obviously the game Saturday comes first, but it's apparent Bobby had looked ahead to the seeding possibilities and sees a way for the Cats and Griz to maybe meet up again. Just thought that was interesting.

[ilovethecats]

Hedging his bet

[MrGoodKat]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

[wbtfg]

Hedging his bet

That’s what i heard too

[nanacat]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

That would be pretty great!!

[damnyoutuesday]

I mean it's not really a mystery that the loser might only drop to #3 while the winner is essentially a lock to be #2.

Tbf it's way more likely that if the Griz lose they drop to #3 than if the Cats lose. Odds are if the Cats lose they'll drop to #4 or #5

[coloradocat]

It seems like the committee understands that the MT teams are 2/3 by a good margin so the only thing that should cause them to change their minds is a 20+ margin of victory. If that happens one of the pretenders could jump the loser but otherwise they should remain 2/3.

[catatac]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Zero chance NDSU loses the #1 unless they lose, if that's what you were suggesting. Zero.

NDSU #1
Winner of Brawl #2

Those things are 100% locks.

Loser of the brawl... if it's UM I think Griz are a lock for #3. If Cats lose, I have no idea if we end up 3,4, 5, or slight chance could be as low as six if they put Lehigh, Tarleton, and Tenn Tech above us. I do not want the #3 or #4. So between #5 and #6... which of those two would go through Fargo? I should know that.

[91catAlum]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Zero chance NDSU loses the #1 unless they lose, if that's what you were suggesting. Zero.

NDSU #1
Winner of Brawl #2

Those things are 100% locks.

Loser of the brawl... if it's UM I think Griz are a lock for #3. If Cats lose, I have no idea if we end up 3,4, 5, or slight chance could be as low as six if they put Lehigh, Tarleton, and Tenn Tech above us. I do not want the #3 or #4. So between #5 and #6... which of those two would go through Fargo? I should know that.

4 and 5 both go thru Fargo. 3 and 6 go thru Bozeman or missoula, whichever gets the 2 seed.

[BOBCATBORN]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Zero chance NDSU loses the #1 unless they lose, if that's what you were suggesting. Zero.

NDSU #1
Winner of Brawl #2

Those things are 100% locks.

Loser of the brawl... if it's UM I think Griz are a lock for #3. If Cats lose, I have no idea if we end up 3,4, 5, or slight chance could be as low as six if they put Lehigh, Tarleton, and Tenn Tech above us. I do not want the #3 or #4. So between #5 and #6... which of those two would go through Fargo? I should know that.

5 would go through Fargo, 6 is on the opposite side of bracket.

[kmax]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Zero chance NDSU loses the #1 unless they lose, if that's what you were suggesting. Zero.

NDSU #1
Winner of Brawl #2

Those things are 100% locks.

Loser of the brawl... if it's UM I think Griz are a lock for #3. If Cats lose, I have no idea if we end up 3,4, 5, or slight chance could be as low as six if they put Lehigh, Tarleton, and Tenn Tech above us. I do not want the #3 or #4. So between #5 and #6... which of those two would go through Fargo? I should know that.

The bolded above makes no sense, or maybe I am misunderstanding. You DON"T want home field advantage for an additional round of the playoffs and would rather go on the road in the quarters? Huh?

[catatac]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Zero chance NDSU loses the #1 unless they lose, if that's what you were suggesting. Zero.

NDSU #1
Winner of Brawl #2

Those things are 100% locks.

Loser of the brawl... if it's UM I think Griz are a lock for #3. If Cats lose, I have no idea if we end up 3,4, 5, or slight chance could be as low as six if they put Lehigh, Tarleton, and Tenn Tech above us. I do not want the #3 or #4. So between #5 and #6... which of those two would go through Fargo? I should know that.

The bolded above makes no sense, or maybe I am misunderstanding. You DON"T want home field advantage for an additional round of the playoffs and would rather go on the road in the quarters? Huh?

Ya, that was dumb, I posted it wrong. If the Cats can't get the #2..... then it doesn't matter where they end up between #3 and infinity, they'll have to go through Fargo or Zoo regardless. So yes, want as many home games as possible, just depends on if we'd rather go back to Zoo for CG2 after they already beat us once, or to Fargo.

[nutman]

This playoff is going to be rife with upsets. There are so many team from weaker conferences with few losses in the top 12. Not a single one of them wants to see Pinnick. And none of them even want to see SDU. I don’t think the jackrabbits make it but can you imagine if they get a spot and come in more healthy?

[91catAlum]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Zero chance NDSU loses the #1 unless they lose, if that's what you were suggesting. Zero.

NDSU #1
Winner of Brawl #2

Those things are 100% locks.

Loser of the brawl... if it's UM I think Griz are a lock for #3. If Cats lose, I have no idea if we end up 3,4, 5, or slight chance could be as low as six if they put Lehigh, Tarleton, and Tenn Tech above us. I do not want the #3 or #4. So between #5 and #6... which of those two would go through Fargo? I should know that.

The bolded above makes no sense, or maybe I am misunderstanding. You DON"T want home field advantage for an additional round of the playoffs and would rather go on the road in the quarters? Huh?

Ya, that was dumb, I posted it wrong. If the Cats can't get the #2..... then it doesn't matter where they end up between #3 and infinity, they'll have to go through Fargo or Zoo regardless. So yes, want as many home games as possible, just depends on if we'd rather go back to Zoo for CG2 after they already beat us once, or to Fargo.

It's a much better draw to have to go back to missoula. If we lost Cat griz it won't be because we aren't good enough to win, we could absolutely win a 2nd game there. If we goto Fargo, that's a death sentence and the end of our season.

So if we happen to lose this weekend, let's hope the committee decides to not punish MSU for playing 2 tough teams OOC and gives us the 3 seed. Otherwise MSU needs to go back to scheduling D2 teams and forget about scheduling the xDsu's for OOC games.

Better yet, let's just win this weekend and not worry about it.

[GoldstoneCat]

It seems like the committee understands that the MT teams are 2/3 by a good margin so the only thing that should cause them to change their minds is a 20+ margin of victory. If that happens one of the pretenders could jump the loser but otherwise they should remain 2/3.

He's lobbying the committee in the event they lose handily imo. Their resume with a loss to us is not entirely dissimilar to tarleton, who has that win over army in their quiver. That plus the recency bias of say a 34-14 game where the Cats just expose them (conjecture of course), with tarleton's loss being a month old and ACU playing well, might lead the Griz to 4 in that scenario. Not impossible, if not likely. I doubt we stay at 3 if we lose.

[catatac]

It seems like the committee understands that the MT teams are 2/3 by a good margin so the only thing that should cause them to change their minds is a 20+ margin of victory. If that happens one of the pretenders could jump the loser but otherwise they should remain 2/3.

He's lobbying the committee in the event they lose handily imo. Their resume with a loss to us is not entirely dissimilar to tarleton, who has that win over army in their quiver. That plus the recency bias of say a 34-14 game where the Cats just expose them (conjecture of course), with tarleton's loss being a month old and ACU playing well, might lead the Griz to 4 in that scenario. Not impossible, if not likely. I doubt we stay at 3 if we lose.

I think we're at #2 currently, committee poll.

[GoldstoneCat]

It seems like the committee understands that the MT teams are 2/3 by a good margin so the only thing that should cause them to change their minds is a 20+ margin of victory. If that happens one of the pretenders could jump the loser but otherwise they should remain 2/3.

He's lobbying the committee in the event they lose handily imo. Their resume with a loss to us is not entirely dissimilar to tarleton, who has that win over army in their quiver. That plus the recency bias of say a 34-14 game where the Cats just expose them (conjecture of course), with tarleton's loss being a month old and ACU playing well, might lead the Griz to 4 in that scenario. Not impossible, if not likely. I doubt we stay at 3 if we lose.

I think we're at #2 currently, committee poll.

We are, that's correct. I guess i always viewed that as at least some projection from the committee but I suppose one could infer that we don't fall past 3 since they currently view us as ahead of them. Definitely possible. Margin and optics will matter, both directions.

[onceacat]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Only way that UM gets the #1 seed is if NDSU loses to St Thomas this weekend AND the Pandas win by 3+ scores. Could happen, but doubt it.

Hard to know what the committee does if MUS loses...If it's a close game, its hard to see the Cats falling to #4. If it's a big blowout, I could see Tarleton or Lehigh or any number of teams jumping the Cats.

Likewise, if the Cats curbstomp the Pandas ( ) I could easily see any of those teams jumping the gris too.

Regardless, theres not a conceivable scenario where I would prefer the Cats end up on the Bizen side of the bracket. We 100% want the road to Nashville to either have a SF game in Zootown or Bozeman.

[catatac]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Only way that UM gets the #1 seed is if NDSU loses to St Thomas this weekend AND the Pandas win by 3+ scores. Could happen, but doubt it.

Hard to know what the committee does if MUS loses...If it's a close game, its hard to see the Cats falling to #4. If it's a big blowout, I could see Tarleton or Lehigh or any number of teams jumping the Cats.

Likewise, if the Cats curbstomp the Pandas ( ) I could easily see any of those teams jumping the gris too.

Regardless, theres not a conceivable scenario where I would prefer the Cats end up on the Bizen side of the bracket. We 100% want the road to Nashville to either have a SF game in Zootown or Bozeman.

I guess I'm coming around to that..... but dang - the pain of playing them in Missoula and losing TWICE is almost too much to comprehend. So we all know the absolute best case scenario here. Just beat them on Saturday and pray they get the #3 seed. If we beat them in Missoula, I think we all agree there is an almost zero chance they're coming into our house and beating us in Bozeman. Can you imagine the crowd for that one...

[onceacat]

If UM loses, they're probably the 3 seed, which would mean that their path to the chipper would run through Bozeman.

If MSU loses, they're probably the 4 seed, which most likely means that their path would run through Fargo. However, there are two other possibilities that, while less likely, I could envision:

1) MSU only drops to the 3 and thus their road is through Missoula.

2) MSU drops to the 4 and UM gets the #1, meaning that their road is through Missoula.

Personally, I would LOVE to beat them this weekend and see them again in Bozeman.

Only way that UM gets the #1 seed is if NDSU loses to St Thomas this weekend AND the Pandas win by 3+ scores. Could happen, but doubt it.

Hard to know what the committee does if MUS loses...If it's a close game, its hard to see the Cats falling to #4. If it's a big blowout, I could see Tarleton or Lehigh or any number of teams jumping the Cats.

Likewise, if the Cats curbstomp the Pandas ( ) I could easily see any of those teams jumping the gris too.

Regardless, theres not a conceivable scenario where I would prefer the Cats end up on the Bizen side of the bracket. We 100% want the road to Nashville to either have a SF game in Zootown or Bozeman.

I guess I'm coming around to that..... but dang - the pain of playing them in Missoula and losing TWICE is almost too much to comprehend. So we all know the absolute best case scenario here. Just beat them on Saturday and pray they get the #3 seed. If we beat them in Missoula, I think we all agree there is an almost zero chance they're coming into our house and beating us in Bozeman. Can you imagine the crowd for that one...

I get that. But hear me out:

The Cats are 2.5 point favorites. That implies a 55-60% chance of winning. So even if the Cats lose, barring some sort of catastrophe, like an injury to Lamson or a Dowler, if the Cats go back, they should still be at a similar chance of winning.

I just think thats a decent scenario...the Pandas would have to beat a superior team twice in 2 months. Sure, those things happen. But I'd rather be the Cats right now than the gris.