2025 Path to the Playoffs Week 13 - Part 1: BRACKETOLOGY– Auto Bids – Conference Breakdown- Bubble Games

[kwcat]

[Catprint]

WEEK 12 – Top 16 Bracket; Big Sky Predictions; Best Offense/Defense

Way too much going on in life to get much of a post early. But figured people need something to read Saturday waiting for the late, late show. Much more next week before the Brawl.

Who We Want to Lose – Last Week

Great week last week. We got five out of 10 games. The losses damaged the playoff options (Top 8 seed or even getting in) of a number of teams.

1) SDSU@USD –SDSU TO LOSE. GOT IT. SDSU is on the ropes. Have to win this week.

2) NDSU @ UND –NDSU TO LOSE. NOPE. NDSU knows how to win the close games.

3) SIU @ Youngstown –YGU TO LOSE. – NOPE, Brungard is super.

4) UNH @ Monmouth –MONMOUTH TO LOSE. -GOT IT. This will drop Monmouth out of the Top 8 with limited chance to get in.

5) URI @ Elon –– URI TO LOSE. NOPE. URI’s path to CAA auto-bid is theirs for the taking

6) Mercer @ Western Carolina –MERCER TO LOSE. NOPE But what a game. Maybe WCU still gets a playoff spot.

7) SELA @ Lamar –– SELA TO LOSE. GOT IT

8 ) Utah Tech @ ACU –ACU TO LOSE. NOPE

9) UNC @ NAU –UNC to Lose. GOT IT

10) Davis @ Idaho –IDAHO TO LOSE. GOT IT


THIS WEEK

Going to narrow down the bubble teams this week. And maybe cut the MVFC from a 7-bid league (not really going to happen) to a 5 or 6 team league although it is possible only 1 of them gets a Top 8 seed and only 3 get a Top 16 seed. Guess we will see what the committee really thinks about the MVFC over the up and comers from the East and South (Tarleton, Lehigh, Mercer, Monmouth).

1) URI @ MAINE –Who would have thought Maine would be in the playoff conversation? Sitting at 6-4, Maine could be in with two wins. Why not make the CAA total chaos? Plus, we still don’t like the Rams so URI TO LOSE.

2) STONY BROOK @ VILLANOVA – Stony Brook could give Nova a game. More chaos in the CAA so NOVA TO LOSE.

3) USD @ SIU –I really don’t want to face a resurgent South Dakota in the playoffs but this is their last game. I don’t think SIU is playing well enough to get the win. But USD might get a top 16 seed at 8-4. And there could be 5 teams from Missouri Valley who are 8-4. That is going to give a huge headache to the committee and frankly the Cats could end up playing 2 straight MVFC teams in the playoffs. That would be a bummer. So, USD TO LOSE.

4) Illinois State @ SDSU – I can’t figure this game out nor SDSU. Guess I would like the Jacks to lose out so they miss the playoffs. Not likely but we can dream so JACKS TO LOSE.

5) Charleston Southern @ UT Martin – Two bids in the OVC? Only if UT Martin wins out, including beating Tenn. Tech next week. Not great for Big Sky bids plus do we want to play UT Martin again? No way so UTM TO LOSE.

6) LAMAR @ SFA – Lamar winning here will really make a mess of the bubble. SFA could still win the Southland. Certainly, would make it possible for three Southland. Plus, Lamar has a win over South Dakota so do you bring in an 8-4 USD but not a 9-3 Lamar if they lose to SFA? In fact, Lamar could snag a top 16 spot with a win this week and next week. So SFA TO LOSE.

7) SELA @ UIW – Simple here. Let’s create total bubble havoc and make the committee pick a bunch of 8-4 MVFC teams over a 9-3 SELA or 9-3 Lamar. That will make the Internet catch fire on Selection Sunday. So UIW TO LOSE.

8 ) ACU @ EKU – Abilene is one team on the bubble while actually in the running for a Top 16 seed. Two FBS loses, lots of ranked wins, beat Tarleton State. I think it actually helps the Cats for ACU to be a top 16 so EKU TO LOSE.



BEST OFFENSE/BEST DEFENSE

OFFENSE

By adding Mercer to the mix and opening my list to the Top 14, I have brought in two high flying pass happy offenses in the last couple of weeks – Monmouth and Mercer. Surprisingly, the Cats sore to the top of the chart partly due to their dominating win over Weber; partly due to Monmouth’s poor showing against UNH; partly due to Tarleton’s bye and finally partly due to our balance. This week we are #3 in scoring; number 1 in rushing, and #10 in passing. Sure, the numbers are not weighted by SOS or degree of difference but so what? It shows the Cats have a powerful offense compared to other Top 8 or top 10 playoff teams.



DEFENSE

Defense is no surprise. NDSU sits at the top of the Top teams. Harvard still sitting at number 2 and the Cats at # 3. What is interesting for us as Cats fans is that UC Davis sits at number 12 and Gris at number 13. When I listen and read about Davis and Gris, I hear their defenses are solid, good, and so on. The numbers nationally of top teams don’t necessarily support that position. Gris are near the bottom of every category among the top 14 – 14th in passing D; 10th in rushing D; 13th in scoring D. Davis is solidly at #12 in almost every defense category. There have been lots of posts about the stats when only Big Sky conference games are considered. Those stats are pretty similar. Gris are 2nd in scoring D but 7 points more than the Cats; 5th in Total Defense and dead last in passing defense. Davis is 11th in passing D and 6th in total defense. I imagine we may see more passing in those two games than we typically see. Maybe.



COMBINED RANK

The Cats balance on offense and defense finally has pushed us to the top of the heap. Part of the reason is the lame offensive performance of NDSU last week against UND and Tennessee Tech’s drop back in the last couple of weeks. The Cats’ strong performance on offense playing UNC and Weber while a consistent strong defense demonstrates a balance that gives us the #1 position this week. Does it mean much? No, it doesn’t mean much.




BRACKET OF TOP 16

Way too hard to do a full bracket this week. You can look at the various FCS experts (Herder, McKinnell, Haley, etc.) and will see lots of variation on bubble teams. At this point, there are at least 21 teams in the running for what I think are maybe 8 at-large spots truly available. It is a crap shoot so it’s better to wait a week.

What I will do is share my Top 8 predictions and my Top 16 seeds. This is a slightly safer to put out there.

TOP 8 SEEDS



My Top 8 is no particular surprise. I have Cats at #2 and Gris at #3 based on winning the Brawl. If it goes the wrong way, Cats might end up at #4. I think Lehigh hangs at #4 and I don’t think they necessarily pass the loser of the Brawl. Tarleton State is at #5 and they could push past Lehigh with a couple of strong showings. Spots 6 -8 are a somewhat a mix. Mercer replaced Monmouth after the latter’s loss to UNH last week. I do think it is possible Monmouth, URI or Davis could sneak into the Top 8 given the right combination of games going their way.

2nd 16 Seeds


The 2nd 8 is really just throwing a dart at the target. There are still too many games. I don’t have Ill. State in the top 16 because I think they might lose their last two games - but they could be there with a win over SDSU. I have UND at 15 but they have to win their last game against the Jacks. I have Youngstown at 13 because they have the easiest schedule of bubble team MVFC teams in the last two weeks. They will be 8-4 and have given a run for NDSU’s money. Why do I have ACU at #16? I am 90% sure they win their last two games and they have two FBS losses and 4 ranked wins (2 now ranked – Tarleton and SFA). That means a lot to the committee. That said, it is even possible they would be on the bubble. There are other possible teams such as SDSU, Lamar, USD, and Illinois State who could nab a 2nd 8 seed depending on this weeks games.

BIG SKY PREDICTIONS



So last week, I went 6-0 with predictions. But it is hard to believe the Gris pulled another rabbit out of the hat. But hey, maybe next year Eastern will be someone to contend with if this quarterback sticks around. There are still 5 teams technically alive for a playoff berth. The reality is that the Big Sky might only get 3 teams in the bracket but can’t get more than 4 in my opinion. Sac State has to win out to get in and that means Davis ends up at 7-4 which likely keeps them out. There are too many teams on the bubble. This week….

UNC @ EWU – I was going to stick with my earlier predictions that UNC beats Eastern. However, the reality is Eastern seems to be on the uptick and Northern Colorado is not showing the early season promise. What is amazing is that if Eastern can beat UNC and then finish the season with a win at Cal Poly, they end up at 5-3 and likely in a tie for 4th place. Simply unthinkable when they opened conference play with a 57-3 loss to the Cats. But they didn’t play Idaho, Davis or NAU so they missed #3, #4, and #7 best teams. Their schedule really helped them out. EWU 24 – UNC 14

Cal Poly @ NAU – The Jacks have their backs against the wall. Poly is not showing their early season promise. NAU needs style points so they try to run up the score. NAU 38 – Cal Poly 17

Weber @ Idaho State – Feel bad for Weber’s coach getting canned but it has been a very quick slide from top of the top of the Big Sky for three years (2017-2019) to cellar dwellers. Idaho State has some moxie. The Bengals should pull off a victory at home - ISU 31 – Weber 13

Idaho @ Sacramento State – Might be an interesting game. Sac is still hoping for a winning season and a slight chance of a playoff spot. I think they could lose both games but that depends on whether Idaho can generate any offense. I will stick with my pick of Idaho upsetting Sac State only because I really want Sac to be no better than 6-6. If wishes were fishes. It should be the Lumber Classic – The mouth of Sac State’s president – Luke Wood vs the arm of the Vandals quarterback – Joshua Woods. Maybe the stronger club will win! Idaho 35 – Sac State 33.

Gris @ PSU – why bother? Just phone it in Bobbie. Even in Providence Park downtown, the Vikings will look downtrodden. Any chance of an upset? Don’t think so. I read Bobbie is 13-0 in games before the Brawl so never seems to have a trap game… Still, ahh – NO. Gris 42 – PSU 10


Davis @ Cats – Everyone (FCS podcasters; beat writers; McKinnell, Herder, etc.) predicting a win; all by double figures; some even a blowout. All makes me nervous but seems warranted. I will settle for a 33-17 win.

[Montanabob]

Murray St ahead of UND 9-7 halftime.
First time this season 0-10 Murray was ahead of an opponent.

[RickRund]

YSU and Indi St 28-26 YSU with a minute left in the 2nd quarter.

[Montanabob]

and Harvard losing.

[RickRund]

and Harvard losing.

Losing 27-21 at the half.

Halftime with YSU up 31-26.

[OutlanderCatAlum]

Just listening to the Jackrabbit game with Illinois St. Jacks down 28-0 in second quarter.

[OutlanderCatAlum]

SDSU 0 Illinois St. 35

(still 2nd qtr)

[Montanabob]

Sagarin current top 4.....
ndsu
msu
tarlington
pandas

so i can see this happening when we take care of business in zoola. gris drop to 4 and have UND rematch at home to get to play in Fargo.

lose in zoola and i we either drop to 3 and play again in dark pink area or more likely drop to 4 and play in fargo...

[MSU01]

Sagarin current top 4.....
ndsu
msu
tarlington
pandas

so i can see this happening when we take care of business in zoola. gris drop to 4 and have UND rematch at home to get to play in Fargo.

lose in zoola and i we either drop to 3 and play again in dark pink area or more likely drop to 4 and play in fargo...

I highly doubt the Griz will drop all the way to #4 behind Tarleton if they both end up 11-1. The committee had them ahead of Tarleton even when both teams were still undefeated and surely a loss to MSU wouldn't hurt them more than Tarleton's loss to Abilene Christian did.

[blueandgoldblitz]

I've been wondering if some of you could help me with history of seeding. A lot of you don't think we'll drop very far with a loss (and that the Gris won't with a loss either) but wasn't it 2021 that the Cats were undefeated going into Cat-Gris? We lost that game and ended up #8 and on the road to #1 SHSU. Why do you guys think we dropped so far that time, but won't drop very far this time? Is it really all because so many other programs have moved up? Some other reason? And to clarify, I'm not calling anyone out. I'm just curious to know your rationale

[catatac]

I've been wondering if some of you could help me with history of seeding. A lot of you don't think we'll drop very far with a loss (and that the Gris won't with a loss either) but wasn't it 2021 that the Cats were undefeated going into Cat-Gris? We lost that game and ended up #8 and on the road to #1 SHSU. Why do you guys think we dropped so far that time, but won't drop very far this time? Is it really all because so many other programs have moved up? Some other reason? And to clarify, I'm not calling anyone out. I'm just curious to know your rationale

Yes, different year. There are no other FCS teams good enough to warrant being in the top four, with the possible exception of Lehigh. Tarleton has a bad loss. NDSU, MSU, and UM do not.

I'm biased but personally I think NDSU and MSU are clearly #1 and #2, then there's a gap to UM and Lehigh, and perhaps Tarleton? Then from there there's a 1,000 mile gap to everyone else.

[onceacat]

I've been wondering if some of you could help me with history of seeding. A lot of you don't think we'll drop very far with a loss (and that the Gris won't with a loss either) but wasn't it 2021 that the Cats were undefeated going into Cat-Gris? We lost that game and ended up #8 and on the road to #1 SHSU. Why do you guys think we dropped so far that time, but won't drop very far this time? Is it really all because so many other programs have moved up? Some other reason? And to clarify, I'm not calling anyone out. I'm just curious to know your rationale

Yes, different year. There are no other FCS teams good enough to warrant being in the top four, with the possible exception of Lehigh. Tarleton has a bad loss. NDSU, MSU, and UM do not.

I'm biased but personally I think NDSU and MSU are clearly #1 and #2, then there's a gap to UM and Legih, and perhaps Tarleton? Then from there there's a 1,000 mile gap to everyone else.

Yeah, there were a bunch of 1 and 2 loss teams in '21. The CAA was still really good, and a bunch of the minor conferences had teams with good resumes.

And also the Cats lost in a blowout. The Brawl was 29-10, but not nearly as close as the score made it look.

If the Cats get blown out, I think it's possible that they drop multiple spots. But there were 8 legit seeds in '21...with JMU & Sammy (both going FBS) and teams like UIW with future #1 NFL draft pick at QB.

The FCS landscape is totally different this year.

[blueandgoldblitz]

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. We'll see if the committee thinks the same way. I'm guessing they will

[Catprint]

WEEK 13 – Part 1: BRACKETOLOGY– Auto Bids – Conference Breakdown- Bubble Games

Who We Wanted to Lose

3 out of 8. Most of the week went quietly. The best one of the bunch was SDSU losing to Ill. State. I don’t see SDSU falling apart hurting the Cats in the committee’s eyes. They were an entirely different team in early September.

1) URI @ MAINE –URI TO LOSE, NOPE

2) STONY BROOK @ VILLANOVA –NOVA TO LOSE, NOPE

3) USD @ SIU –USD to LOSE, NOPE

4) Illinois State @ SDSU –Jacks to LOSE. GOT ONE!

5) Charleston Southern @ UT Martin – UTM TO LOSE.NOPE

6) LAMAR @ SFA – SFA TO LOSE - NOPE

7) SELA @ UIW -- UIW to lose. GOT TWO!

8 ) ACU @ EKU – EKU TO LOSE – GOT THREE


Bracketology of All Bracketologies

I do things a little differently. Trying to predict matchups and all the seeds before the last game leaves a lot to be desired. I am going to present my bracket in different pieces. First, I provide my auto bid prediction. Next, I outline all contenders by conference in three groups: the likely auto bid; who is a lock and who is on the bubble. Then I will review bubble teams and their final game.

In a second upload, I will look at Top 8 seeds and 2nd 8 Seeds. In addition, I have a comparison of the common FCS experts brackets and who the Cats will play based on everyone’s prediction. With some discussion about what are good draws and not so good draws.

Auto Bids

There are only three auto-bids clinched before the last game – NDSU (MVFC); Mercer (Southern); SFA (Southland). The remaining eight conferences could all swap out from my prediction. There are four head-to-head games where the winner gets the auto bid including three games that are historic rivalries:

Big Sky (MSU-UM) –Duh...More in Part 2!!!

Big South (Tenn Tech-UT Martin) – UT Martin started out with 5 losses in six games but three of them were FBS games (Why would you schedule 3 FBS games??). Since then, they have won 5 in a row. However, even with a playoff spot and championship on the line, I cannot see UTM beating Tennessee Tech at home. Just not enough fire power. Tennessee Tech has a balanced offense and has shown to be a top defense.

IVY (Harvard-Yale) – The defacto Ivy League championship game is much more intriguing. Harvard is the clear favorite in the 140th meeting between these two teams. Yale is 7-2 with losses to Lehigh and Dartmouth. Harvard is hoping to conclude an undefeated season and snag a Top 8 seed. Based on the committee’s rankings on No 5th, it seems they will get a #7 or #8 seed. I am not in agreement given their 84th future SOS and the lack of ranked wins. Technically, Yale would be a ranked win since they are 25th in the coaches’ poll (even though they are 32 in Stats Poll). But Yale would no longer be ranked as of Sunday morning. However, I think Harvard had their trap game last week against Penn – a game they should have lost if not for a bone-headed decision on the part of the Penn coach to kick with 22 seconds left on the clock. I suppose they were concerned about a sack but a simple roll out and throwing the ball out of bounds might have been a better choice than kicking on 3rd down. But giving up 43 points to the fifth-place team in the Ivy League sure doesn’t speak well of their defense.

Patriot (Lehigh-Lafayette) – Believe it or not, this game has been played 160 times! That goes all the way back to 1884. Didn’t think anyone played back then? Both teams have a low SOS – 93 for Lehigh and 73 for Lafayette. Frankly, I don’t see how Lehigh is ranked #4 by the committee with basically the lowest SOS of any team considered for a seed. Still, it takes some depth and strength to win 12 games in a row. Lehigh’s call to fame is clearly their defense - #2 in scoring defense; #1 in rushing defense; #4 in total defense. It will take some sort of complete collapse for Lafayette to win.


The remaining four auto bids are for the leader to win and clinch. All four of these games the league leader is a favorite

CAA – URI-Hampton – No contest.

NEC – Central Conn – Mercyhurst - I don’t see any issue with Central Conn taking home the auto bid. But frankly it doesn’t matter. (BTW, Mercyhurst technically could tie for the title if they win but they cannot get the AQ as they are still transitioning from DII).

Pioneer – Drake – Morehead State - Ditto, Drake wins but no seeds or bubble teams involved.

UAC – Tarleton State – Austin Peay – This is a game Tarleton must have in order to a) get the auto bid and b) get a top 5 seed. With a loss, it is possible Tarleton drops to #7 or #8 or maybe even to a #9-#10 seed. Most likely they stay around #7 or #8. As of this writing, Tarleton is a 20.5 favorite on FanDuel but the eye test tells me this game could be a possible upset. Not that I am predicting, just that it could be a challenge for the Texans. That said, I would say Tarleton will most likely handle business as they want one of those top seeds.



Playoff Prediction by Conference

The prediction by conference chart is pretty self-explanatory. You can read tons of write ups on sites like Herosports.com or si/.com/college/fcs where all the options are broken down. I just put everything in a simple chart. Personally, I have eliminated some questionable bubble teams like SIU, Maine, etc. that might meet the 7-win threshold but really have no chance of getting in.

First, for the Big Sky and MVFC to get 4 and 5 in the bracket respectively, they need no bid stealers. That means Harvard, Lehigh, Tarleton State, and Tenn Tech all need to win. If any of these teams lose on Saturday, it almost certainly means teams like NAU, UC Davis (if they lose), Youngstown, loser of UND/SDSU game will all be sweating Sunday morning. In addition, bid stealers will essentially prevent the CAA from getting more than 3 bids or UAC getting in 4 or even 3 teams.

Second, most writers predict there are only five multiple bid leagues – Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, Southland and UAC. The main question is the total count. I think NAU, SDSU and Southern Utah are all at risk. All other 2 bid options depend on a bid stealer. I don’t see it happening but maybe once?

Thirdly, as I predicted a few weeks ago, it is HIGHLY unlikely for the MVFC to get 7 bids (like some places still list). I think 5 is what they get and ONLY 1 Top 8 Seed. More in part 2.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Bubble Games

My final chart in this section is a list of bubble teams, the game they play on Saturday, what happens if they win or lose and what are the odds of getting into the field. There are 18 teams in my opinion, competing for 8 remaining spots. Pretty clear some teams are going to be unhappy Sunday morning even if they win on Saturday. One key consideration in these bubble games is they may significantly affect who the Cats play in a 2nd round game.

Some interesting games (other than the bid stealer conference championship games):

Sac State @ Davis – Big time consequences for both teams and for the Big Sky. Davis wins and they are in for sure. But Sac State has improved as the year has progressed, much to my chagrin. It is not a give me. Most experts have Sac State in if they win but almost everyone predicts a Davis victory at home. If Sac State does win, they probably get in. However, does Davis still get in at 7-4 with the “lost” game in the Kickoff Classic? Frankly, I don’t think it would happen with only 7 wins and losing 3 out of their last 4 games. However, for Davis to get in with a loss, 1) there can be NO bid stealers; 2) UND has to beat SDSU; 3)

UNH @ Maine – It is possible New Hampshire could sneak in as the final team as long as they can take care of business with Maine. At 8-4 they would have the one ranked win against Monmouth which is big. It would give the CAA a fourth team. The problem might be a Dartmouth team sitting at 8-2 who won the head-to-head with UNH. Maybe Dartmouth gets in? UNH also could not have any bid stealers win.

SDSU @ UND – This is perhaps the oddest situation and game. SDSU is riding a 4-game losing streak. If they lose, do they get in at 7-5 with ranked wins over Montana State and Youngstown? I simply find it incredulous that a team on a 5-game losing streak gets into the playoffs over a number of 8 D-1 win teams who are winning at the end of the season. UND is in if they win and maybe they are in consideration for Top 14-16 seed. But what if SDSU pulls off the victory? It seems the committee has to let the Jacks in although I think they are not seeded. Can UND still get in at 7-5 with two ranked wins and close losses to Gris, Yotes, Kansas State and NDSU? Certainly, they played the Bison closer than any other team. Funny thing is UND shot themselves in the foot in 3 of those games. Too many risks early; too many points left on the field; too many mistakes. I think this game is the wild card.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Part 2 – I will look at Top 8 seeds, 2nd 8 seeds, a consolidated bracket and a look at who the Cats could play depending on our seed and who we want to lose on Saturday. Because getting to Nashville is all about matchups on the way - both for us and for some other Top 8 teams to be upset.

GO CATS!