WEEK 11 – PART 2 – MVVC Playoff Spots?; Big Sky Predictions; Best offense/Defense
Ran out of time this week with work and writing early. This is really late but I always want the information for comparison even if you don’t read it before the games on Saturday. So making it shorter and skipping some segments and leaving them until next week.
MVFC LOOK IN
So, there are still writers and FCS experts projecting 7 MVFC teams getting into the playoffs. I think that is just about impossible. So, I decided to look at some scenarios of the last three games. There are simply too many teams playing each other for there to be good enough resumes at 7-5. My chart
Look at some basic points
• Youngstown State and USD both have 4 losses. If they both win out, they will be 8-4. I don’t believe either of these teams get in at 7-5.
• South Dakota has to play the Jacks and SIU. The odds of winning out are not good. But if they beat SIU, then SIU will have 4 losses.
• But SIU also plays Youngstown State this weekend, so one of them will have 5 losses in this scenario.
• SIU has to win out to stay alive because they have a D-II game. But that will take Youngstown out and USD out of the playoffs.
• If USD beats SIU, then SIU will be out because they can’t get to 8 D-1 wins.
• Just looking at these games, 1 team will be at only 7 wins and likely 2 wins.
If you look at the options in my chart, you can see that it is possible 4 teams could end up 7-5. Could 1 or 2 of them get into the playoffs? Possible but not a given. But NO WAY four 7-5 MFVC teams get into the playoffs.
If you look at option 2, which is maybe more likely, 5 teams get in from MFVC and two are out (YGU and Ill, State). If you flip games so SIU basically loses out, you could get 6 teams in but under no circumstance can the MVFC get 7 teams in especially in any scenario 1 or 2 of those teams will be on a 3 game losing streak or have lost 3 of 4 or even 4 of 5 (SDSU).
CLICK TO ENLARGE
Best Offense and Defense
Just providing an update. I added Harvard to the list and expanded it to 13. What is interesting is that Harvard shows up in the stats. On offense, they are #5 just behind MSU. On defense, they are number 1, pushing NDSU to second. On my overall best team in the CAT-P Combined ranking, they are #2, ahead of the Cats and just below NDSU. Now, the question is whether playing only 2 non-con games and playing only 10 games will be comparable. Since this is the first time the Ivy League is participating in the playoffs, we will find out on the field. Only other point I want to make is the Gris are 12th out of 13 in the defensive ranking. Are they really that bad? Hard to say but they are 11 in scoring D, 9th in rushing D and 12th in passing D. Yet, somehow, they are 9-0?
BEST OFFENSE
BEST DEFENSE
COMBINED RANKING
Big Sky Predictions – Week 11 – Short and Sweet.
Going to be quick. No way did anyone predict (that I could find) for Idaho to beat NAU AND Idaho State to beat Davis. Maybe they did in Manhattan as the Seed Potato Capital!! I think it is possible that Big Sky will get only 2 teams in the playoffs as opposed to 5 last year. That would be a bad look for the conference. The resurgence of Idaho is only serving to knock other teams out of the playoffs and damage the value of Big Sky play in the committee’s eyes. Not good for Cats; maybe not even good for the Gris depending on how the end of the year breaks out.
Davis @ Idaho – It is an even money game on the betting line. Idaho is holding open its smoldering playoff chances with a win. Davis knows they lose this game and come in cold to Bobcat stadium, they may be looking at being 6-4 going into the last game of the year. Currently Davis is #10 in the committee’s rankings. That seems awfully high. Can they bounce back and play a decent game? And what about Idaho? They are 4-3 against the FCS. IF they win out, is 7-3 against the FCS good enough to nab an at large. I have already explained a number of times why we need Davis to win. I have no idea if they have the fortitude.
Davis 44 – Idaho 42 - 2OT – win by a 2-point conversion.
EWU @ Gris – Can Eastern pull the upset? Not a chance. I don’t think the Gris are great but Eastern has only beaten WIU (2-7); PSU (1-8), Weber (3-6) and Idaho (4-5 – and that was with Joshua Wood out of the game.) I don’t think it will be even kind of close –
Gris 44 – Grounded Eagles – 13.
Cal Poly @ Idaho State – Face saving game. I think ISU slings it all over Cal Poly. Pushes the score up.
ISU – 38 – Cal Poly 17
UNC @ NAU – Every game is a playoff game for NAU. Don’t win the next three – almost certainly out with 5 losses. Northern Colorado is improved but were exposed last week by the Cats. NAU must win:
NAU 27 – UNC – 14
Sac State @ PSU – Don’t bother. No upset.
Sac State 42 – PSU - 10
WEBER @ MSU – I don’t predict and there is only one result that works for us – high scoring victory.
GO CATS!
