Cats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.Monymony wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 amWinning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
Top 2 path
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- Golden Bobcat
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Re: Top 2 path
Sports is not bigger than life
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Re: Top 2 path
Vigen has to get over the hump of getting himself ready and the team ready. He hasn’t done that yet.tetoncat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:54 pmCats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.Monymony wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 amWinning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
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Re: Top 2 path
Not sure I buy that. I've read the he doesn't understand the rivalry comments in prior years but he has had them plenty ready at home. Has also had them ready for several big road games. I will acknowledge they have been flat on several as well.Griz, at Idaho a couple years ago and last years championship. Common theme has been Cats came out a little conservative and couldn't establish what had worked all year and any adjustments were too late.kwcat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:56 pmVigen has to get over the hump of getting himself ready and the team ready. He hasn’t done that yet.tetoncat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:54 pmCats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.Monymony wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 amWinning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
Sports is not bigger than life
- ClowderUp
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Re: Top 2 path
I get the conversation on the gris in the hail Mary thread, but it's not really relevant here because we play them. We control that outcome. The really question remains centered on Tarelton St and their FBS win. All eyes should be on that team hoping for a slip up. We can simply assume gris are 11-0 for the Brawl, and they need to be 11-1 afterwards.
The next question will be whether UND and SDSU both beat the NDSU (it's possible). Those parameters cover the Top 2 question in its entirety. Lots of noise on this thread otherwise.
The next question will be whether UND and SDSU both beat the NDSU (it's possible). Those parameters cover the Top 2 question in its entirety. Lots of noise on this thread otherwise.
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Re: Top 2 path
Last couple times we played there we didn’t have a QB who was a very good passer.tetoncat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:54 pmCats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.Monymony wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 amWinning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
/runs away
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Re: Top 2 path
I see our path to the 2 seed as SDSU losing the marker and losing their last regular season game @ UND. Tarleton slipping up and dropping a game or two? to either West Georgia, @ ACU (best chance) or Austin Peay (2nd best chance). Cats will win the brawl decisively….that happens I see us seeded #2. Of course, this scenario has NDSU and us winning out.
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Re: Top 2 path
The MVFC (particularly 2 teams) has been the pinnacle of FCS football for YEARS, yet never got both top seeds. There is a strong likelihood that at least 1 BSC team goes undefeated, either in-conference (MSU) or possibly in FCS play (Davis and UM). One of those teams will get the other top seed, barring stubbing their toe in a game they shouldn't. One only needs to go back 2 seasons for HISTORICAL data. In 2023, the Griz inexplicably lost to NAU, a serious wart on the resume with NAU finishing 5-6 on the season. SDSU went undefeated and got the #1 seed. USD beat 4 playoff participants from the Valley, NDSU and SIU on the road and YSU and UND at home. Their ONLY FCS loss was to undefeated SDSU. Griz beat 3 playoff teams (Idaho on the road, Suck St and MSU in Wa-Griz), had a much, much, much worse FCS loss than USD's loss. Who got the #2 seed? You guessed it.... UM. If ever there was a year for the Valley to get both homefield seeds, that was it.Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑Tue Oct 14, 2025 10:00 amFinally someone bringing more than just their opinion. Its flawed data but its data.MSUBobcat04 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 13, 2025 1:20 pmThe 3rd place MVFC team is not getting a top-2 seed. No way. If you can't even finish in the top 2 of your own conference, how TF are you #2 in the nation?Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:27 pmIf you believe what the committee says about their process for selecting seeds this is completely wrong. They vote based on resumes, not potential matchups, at least that's what they say the process is. SOOOOOMSUBobcat04 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 10, 2025 12:41 pmContext matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 2:47 pmWalkOn79 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 2:24 pmDude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:37 amThe teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.RockyBearCat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:28 amYou beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.coloradocat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:15 amWrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:52 am
Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.
a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.
If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.
Did NDSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = yes and they lost it at home
Did NDSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = no, they were undefeated in the FCS
I'm not sure what else to say. The 2022 Montana State Bobcats were seeded below a team the lost an FCS game at home despite being undefeated. Further Sac St was undefeated vs the FCS and had an FBS win to finish 11-0, one win better than 10-1 SDSU and also had beaten a common opponent (UNI) by a larger margin.
Every time in the last handful of years that the BSC winner has finished tied or 1 win/loss better than an xDSU's, the MVFC team was seeded higher. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Yet somehow a bunch of posters here thinks it'll be different this time. They are right, this time the committee will have a head to head to factor in. One where the Cats LOST. Last season the Cats were undefeated and were the 3 until SDSU picked up a 2nd loss in the marker and didn't get the 1 till the Bison lost their 2nd in the final game. It wasn't until the Cats had 2 extra D1 wins over them before they jumped them.
Lets look at resume's for the Jacks vs the Cats if the Jacks lost the Marker and to ILST.
Cats will be 10-2, 10-1 vs the FCS, with 3 ranked wins
Jacks will be 10-2, 10-2 vs the FCS with 5 ranked wins AND the head to head win vs the Cats. More ranked wins, plays in the MVFC, and the head to head. Winner despite the extra loss.
So keep telling me how i'm wrong but not bringing any sort of historical data. I keep showing the instances that prove what I'm saying is true and you all keep saying "no way" with zero evidence to back it up.
You want historical data? How's this:
This millennium, no conference has been awarded both of the top 2 seeds. Ever.
No team has ever received a top 2 seed with 2 FCS losses.
In 2016, SDSU beat NDSU, in Fargo no less. Both were MVFC co-champs (which SDSU could not be this year with 2 losses in-conference). NDSU got the #1, SDSU got #8. Even if SDSU only loses to NDSU, they still need other teams to help them out for both xDSU's to get the #1 and #2. A second FCS loss, the amount of cards that have to fall the right way would be immense.
If H2H is all that matters, why would the hypothetical UND team that beats them not have a leg up on SDSU? How do you square that logic?
To your first point, true no conference has ever gotten the top 2 seeds. But just a few of years ago you had JMU(CAA), Sam Houston(Southern), JSU(Ohio Valley) and a bit further back Georgia Southern(SOCON) vying for top seeds. Those teams are all gone now and more and more the top seeds come from just 2 conferences as those other conferences have faded in competitiveness. Last season 6 of the 8 byes and all top 5 seeds came from either the BSC or MVFC. Its only a matter of time before one of those gets the top 2 seeds and the smart money would be on the Valley. So that argument isn't relevant to the FCS as it's constructed today.
This also accounts for the second point of your post. It was easy to put in a 1 loss JSU or CAA team in the top 2 when those conferences had the teams that helped their SOS. Those teams are gone and so is their SOS. Mercer lost 1 FCS game last season in the SOCON but still only got to the 7 seed and was seeded behind a 2 loss UIW. A few years ago a 1 loss SOCON team was a top 4 and maybe top 2 seed every time. Monmouth is undefeated vs the FCS in the CAA and won't be close to a top 4 and might not even be a top 8 tomorrow. THE CAA!!! Now teams like Tarleton or Tennessee St could go undefeated but they won't sniff a top 2 unless all sorts of chaos happens.
The top 8 have become the gathering point for MVFC and BSC teams with a few other invitees. The FCS has been won by 2 teams over the last decade and a half save a couple exceptions and those 2 teams have earned and keep earning respect they get from the committee. If Tarleton drops a game so will their ability to get a top 4, same for the Griz because their SOS/number of D1 and ranked wins they can achieve. So the top 3 will be a decision between NDSU, SDSU, and MSU if the Cats win out. If the Bison win out they are #1 and it will be very hard for the Cats to jump a team that beat them in the regular season that would have the same number of D1 wins and twice as many ranked wins. The resume, despite 2 FCS losses is better.
To your last point UND already has 2 losses and would lose a 3rd to their in state rival in our hypothetical. They also have one the toughest remaining schedules in all of FCS to only lose 1 remaining game. If they did they would have only 9 D-1 wins and would probably be in the 4,5,6, discussion behind the Cats. Probably behind the griz as well due to...... you guessed it, the head to head.
Heres how I would predict the order in this hypothetical
1. NDSU 12-0
2. SDSU 10-2
3. MSU 10-2
4. UM 11-1
5. Tarleton 11-1
6. UND 9-3
7. UC Davis 9-2
8. Tenn Tech 11-1
There is no way, no how SDSU gets the #2 seed with 2 FCS losses over an MSU team with just 1 FCS loss, even if they have the H2H (which was a double OT game anyway). The head to head gives them a slight edge in that comparison. Not losing another FCS game to a team is a much bigger edge over SDSU than losing that 2nd FCS game. Essentially, it would be MSU lost to a top 2-4 team; SDSU would have lost to the #1 AND.... #6? #8? One animal is not like the other.
Lastly, I wasn't saying UND would be in the running for a top 2 seed (I said teams with 2 FCS losses can't achieve that, remember?). As I stated in a different response, if SDSU is going to lose a 2nd FCS game, odds are good that it will be to UND in Grand Forks (Massey gives them 85% or better odds to beat the others). If, hypothetically, UND is good enough to take down SDSU, their only MVFC loss would be to NDSU (should be resolved this weekend, as SIU is their only remaining challenge outside the xDSU's). So NDSU would be 8-0, UND 7-1, SDSU 6-2. There is not a snowball's chance in hell that a team that finishes 3rd in their own damn conference is getting a #2 seed in the entire country.
It's honestly wild that you think losing to FBS Oregon as your 2nd loss is more detrimental to a teams resume than losing to a 2nd FCS team.
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Re: Top 2 path
I'm resigned to the fact we are on the road for a semifinal even if we win out. As we get closer to the end of the season, the analysis should be on how we avoid the Fargodome. Brookings will be a better alternative, and Tarleton, TX would be a gift.
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Re: Top 2 path
NDSU, Tarleton, MSU, SDSU, griz is the dream scenario because the only other way to go to TX instead of a Dakota is to fall to the 6 seed and I just don't see Lehigh getting the 5. But SDSU probably has to at a minimum lose to NDSU by 20 (or lose 2x which is even less likely) for us to jump them.
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Re: Top 2 path
All depends on conditions. That ice bowl game in Brookings was BRUTAL. Would have much rather played NDSU in the Fargo Dome that day than SDSU.
Eric Curry STILL makes me sad.

94VegasCat wrote:Are you for real? That is just a plain ol dumb paragraph! You just nailed every note in the Full grizidiot - yep , that includes you GRIZFNZ - sing-a-long choir!!!

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Re: Top 2 path
Since we're talking paths, here's the initial playoff committee rankings bottom half of the top 10:
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Re: Top 2 path
Full first top ten from the committee:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech
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Re: Top 2 path
OldGriz in shamblescoachouert wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pmFull first top ten from the committee:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech

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Re: Top 2 path
Well this ranking isn't coaches and writer so the committee is too dumb to see the truth obviously.coloradocat wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pmOldGriz in shamblescoachouert wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pmFull first top ten from the committee:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech![]()
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Re: Top 2 path
Pretty loud message from the committee. Don't schedule D2's and the way you win (eye test) means something.
Griz might not even have a top 2 seed in their control. If they win out and the Dakota States teams only loss is in the Marker, a 12-0 (11-0 vs D1) UM with only a couple ranked wins might not jump the losing xDSU.
Griz might not even have a top 2 seed in their control. If they win out and the Dakota States teams only loss is in the Marker, a 12-0 (11-0 vs D1) UM with only a couple ranked wins might not jump the losing xDSU.
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Re: Top 2 path
LOL. Let's just say there may be some strongly worded emails sent.coloradocat wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pmOldGriz in shamblescoachouert wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pmFull first top ten from the committee:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech![]()
Great time to be a BOBCAT!
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Re: Top 2 path
D-Wreck wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:34 pmWell this ranking isn't coaches and writer so the committee is too dumb to see the truth obviously.coloradocat wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pmOldGriz in shamblescoachouert wrote: ↑Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pmFull first top ten from the committee:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech![]()

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Re: Top 2 path
Actually, pretty pleasant surprise. Resume does mean something. Strength of Schedule does mean something. Eye test does mean something. Only surprise to me was Lehigh at #7. They are 12 in Massey and SOS is 86th. Don't see how they are better than #8-10 or SIU or Abilene Christian or even Ill. State. Good position for the Cats. Still don't see a top 2 path UNLESS 1) UTT loses a game by a lot and 2) SDSU loses marker AND one other game. But then have to watch out if UND could jump too far up. Other option is if SDSU loses marker by 20 or more and barely wins a couple of games. Just hard to see SDSU getting blown out at home with the longest FCS home winning streak.
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Re: Top 2 path
I just hope our team doesn't get complacent and walk into missoula over-confident this year. Reminds me of Tommy winning the Payton the night before the natty. Let's hope Vigen keeps the boys hungry.
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Re: Top 2 path
So your saying Tommy was over confident because he won?
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