Top 2 path

Discuss anything and everything relating to Bobcat Football here.

Moderators: rtb, kmax, SonomaCat

Post Reply
tetoncat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4066
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:14 pm
Location: Montana

Re: Top 2 path

Post by tetoncat » Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:54 pm

Monymony wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 am
Winning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
Cats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.


Sports is not bigger than life

kwcat
BobcatNation Hall of Famer
Posts: 3280
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:34 am

Re: Top 2 path

Post by kwcat » Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:56 pm

tetoncat wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:54 pm
Monymony wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 am
Winning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
Cats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.
Vigen has to get over the hump of getting himself ready and the team ready. He hasn’t done that yet.



tetoncat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4066
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:14 pm
Location: Montana

Re: Top 2 path

Post by tetoncat » Tue Oct 14, 2025 1:13 pm

kwcat wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:56 pm
tetoncat wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:54 pm
Monymony wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 am
Winning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
Cats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.
Vigen has to get over the hump of getting himself ready and the team ready. He hasn’t done that yet.
Not sure I buy that. I've read the he doesn't understand the rivalry comments in prior years but he has had them plenty ready at home. Has also had them ready for several big road games. I will acknowledge they have been flat on several as well.Griz, at Idaho a couple years ago and last years championship. Common theme has been Cats came out a little conservative and couldn't establish what had worked all year and any adjustments were too late.


Sports is not bigger than life

User avatar
ClowderUp
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 301
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2024 12:29 pm

Re: Top 2 path

Post by ClowderUp » Tue Oct 14, 2025 1:52 pm

I get the conversation on the gris in the hail Mary thread, but it's not really relevant here because we play them. We control that outcome. The really question remains centered on Tarelton St and their FBS win. All eyes should be on that team hoping for a slip up. We can simply assume gris are 11-0 for the Brawl, and they need to be 11-1 afterwards.

The next question will be whether UND and SDSU both beat the NDSU (it's possible). Those parameters cover the Top 2 question in its entirety. Lots of noise on this thread otherwise.



BelligerentBobcat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4176
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:58 am

Re: Top 2 path

Post by BelligerentBobcat » Tue Oct 14, 2025 1:53 pm

tetoncat wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 12:54 pm
Monymony wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 11:22 am
Winning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.
Cats haven't been able to pass the ball well there and special teams have not been very good.
Last couple times we played there we didn’t have a QB who was a very good passer.





/runs away



catapult
BobcatNation Redshirt
Posts: 46
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:54 am
Location: Big Timber, MT

Re: Top 2 path

Post by catapult » Tue Oct 14, 2025 2:20 pm

I see our path to the 2 seed as SDSU losing the marker and losing their last regular season game @ UND. Tarleton slipping up and dropping a game or two? to either West Georgia, @ ACU (best chance) or Austin Peay (2nd best chance). Cats will win the brawl decisively….that happens I see us seeded #2. Of course, this scenario has NDSU and us winning out.



MSUBobcat04
BobcatNation Redshirt
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:24 pm
Location: Billings, MT

Re: Top 2 path

Post by MSUBobcat04 » Tue Oct 14, 2025 5:11 pm

Prodigal Cat wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 10:00 am
MSUBobcat04 wrote:
Mon Oct 13, 2025 1:20 pm
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:27 pm
MSUBobcat04 wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 12:41 pm
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 2:47 pm
WalkOn79 wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 2:24 pm
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:37 am
RockyBearCat wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:28 am
coloradocat wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:15 am
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:52 am


Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.
Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.
You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.
The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.
Dude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?


a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.
Context matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).

If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.
If you believe what the committee says about their process for selecting seeds this is completely wrong. They vote based on resumes, not potential matchups, at least that's what they say the process is. SOOOOO

Did NDSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = yes and they lost it at home
Did NDSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = no, they were undefeated in the FCS

I'm not sure what else to say. The 2022 Montana State Bobcats were seeded below a team the lost an FCS game at home despite being undefeated. Further Sac St was undefeated vs the FCS and had an FBS win to finish 11-0, one win better than 10-1 SDSU and also had beaten a common opponent (UNI) by a larger margin.

Every time in the last handful of years that the BSC winner has finished tied or 1 win/loss better than an xDSU's, the MVFC team was seeded higher. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Yet somehow a bunch of posters here thinks it'll be different this time. They are right, this time the committee will have a head to head to factor in. One where the Cats LOST. Last season the Cats were undefeated and were the 3 until SDSU picked up a 2nd loss in the marker and didn't get the 1 till the Bison lost their 2nd in the final game. It wasn't until the Cats had 2 extra D1 wins over them before they jumped them.

Lets look at resume's for the Jacks vs the Cats if the Jacks lost the Marker and to ILST.
Cats will be 10-2, 10-1 vs the FCS, with 3 ranked wins
Jacks will be 10-2, 10-2 vs the FCS with 5 ranked wins AND the head to head win vs the Cats. More ranked wins, plays in the MVFC, and the head to head. Winner despite the extra loss.

So keep telling me how i'm wrong but not bringing any sort of historical data. I keep showing the instances that prove what I'm saying is true and you all keep saying "no way" with zero evidence to back it up.
The 3rd place MVFC team is not getting a top-2 seed. No way. If you can't even finish in the top 2 of your own conference, how TF are you #2 in the nation?

You want historical data? How's this:
This millennium, no conference has been awarded both of the top 2 seeds. Ever.
No team has ever received a top 2 seed with 2 FCS losses.
In 2016, SDSU beat NDSU, in Fargo no less. Both were MVFC co-champs (which SDSU could not be this year with 2 losses in-conference). NDSU got the #1, SDSU got #8. Even if SDSU only loses to NDSU, they still need other teams to help them out for both xDSU's to get the #1 and #2. A second FCS loss, the amount of cards that have to fall the right way would be immense.

If H2H is all that matters, why would the hypothetical UND team that beats them not have a leg up on SDSU? How do you square that logic?
Finally someone bringing more than just their opinion. Its flawed data but its data.

To your first point, true no conference has ever gotten the top 2 seeds. But just a few of years ago you had JMU(CAA), Sam Houston(Southern), JSU(Ohio Valley) and a bit further back Georgia Southern(SOCON) vying for top seeds. Those teams are all gone now and more and more the top seeds come from just 2 conferences as those other conferences have faded in competitiveness. Last season 6 of the 8 byes and all top 5 seeds came from either the BSC or MVFC. Its only a matter of time before one of those gets the top 2 seeds and the smart money would be on the Valley. So that argument isn't relevant to the FCS as it's constructed today.
This also accounts for the second point of your post. It was easy to put in a 1 loss JSU or CAA team in the top 2 when those conferences had the teams that helped their SOS. Those teams are gone and so is their SOS. Mercer lost 1 FCS game last season in the SOCON but still only got to the 7 seed and was seeded behind a 2 loss UIW. A few years ago a 1 loss SOCON team was a top 4 and maybe top 2 seed every time. Monmouth is undefeated vs the FCS in the CAA and won't be close to a top 4 and might not even be a top 8 tomorrow. THE CAA!!! Now teams like Tarleton or Tennessee St could go undefeated but they won't sniff a top 2 unless all sorts of chaos happens.
The top 8 have become the gathering point for MVFC and BSC teams with a few other invitees. The FCS has been won by 2 teams over the last decade and a half save a couple exceptions and those 2 teams have earned and keep earning respect they get from the committee. If Tarleton drops a game so will their ability to get a top 4, same for the Griz because their SOS/number of D1 and ranked wins they can achieve. So the top 3 will be a decision between NDSU, SDSU, and MSU if the Cats win out. If the Bison win out they are #1 and it will be very hard for the Cats to jump a team that beat them in the regular season that would have the same number of D1 wins and twice as many ranked wins. The resume, despite 2 FCS losses is better.
To your last point UND already has 2 losses and would lose a 3rd to their in state rival in our hypothetical. They also have one the toughest remaining schedules in all of FCS to only lose 1 remaining game. If they did they would have only 9 D-1 wins and would probably be in the 4,5,6, discussion behind the Cats. Probably behind the griz as well due to...... you guessed it, the head to head.

Heres how I would predict the order in this hypothetical
1. NDSU 12-0
2. SDSU 10-2
3. MSU 10-2
4. UM 11-1
5. Tarleton 11-1
6. UND 9-3
7. UC Davis 9-2
8. Tenn Tech 11-1
The MVFC (particularly 2 teams) has been the pinnacle of FCS football for YEARS, yet never got both top seeds. There is a strong likelihood that at least 1 BSC team goes undefeated, either in-conference (MSU) or possibly in FCS play (Davis and UM). One of those teams will get the other top seed, barring stubbing their toe in a game they shouldn't. One only needs to go back 2 seasons for HISTORICAL data. In 2023, the Griz inexplicably lost to NAU, a serious wart on the resume with NAU finishing 5-6 on the season. SDSU went undefeated and got the #1 seed. USD beat 4 playoff participants from the Valley, NDSU and SIU on the road and YSU and UND at home. Their ONLY FCS loss was to undefeated SDSU. Griz beat 3 playoff teams (Idaho on the road, Suck St and MSU in Wa-Griz), had a much, much, much worse FCS loss than USD's loss. Who got the #2 seed? You guessed it.... UM. If ever there was a year for the Valley to get both homefield seeds, that was it.

There is no way, no how SDSU gets the #2 seed with 2 FCS losses over an MSU team with just 1 FCS loss, even if they have the H2H (which was a double OT game anyway). The head to head gives them a slight edge in that comparison. Not losing another FCS game to a team is a much bigger edge over SDSU than losing that 2nd FCS game. Essentially, it would be MSU lost to a top 2-4 team; SDSU would have lost to the #1 AND.... #6? #8? One animal is not like the other.

Lastly, I wasn't saying UND would be in the running for a top 2 seed (I said teams with 2 FCS losses can't achieve that, remember?). As I stated in a different response, if SDSU is going to lose a 2nd FCS game, odds are good that it will be to UND in Grand Forks (Massey gives them 85% or better odds to beat the others). If, hypothetically, UND is good enough to take down SDSU, their only MVFC loss would be to NDSU (should be resolved this weekend, as SIU is their only remaining challenge outside the xDSU's). So NDSU would be 8-0, UND 7-1, SDSU 6-2. There is not a snowball's chance in hell that a team that finishes 3rd in their own damn conference is getting a #2 seed in the entire country.

It's honestly wild that you think losing to FBS Oregon as your 2nd loss is more detrimental to a teams resume than losing to a 2nd FCS team.



User avatar
ClowderUp
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 301
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2024 12:29 pm

Re: Top 2 path

Post by ClowderUp » Tue Oct 14, 2025 5:19 pm

I'm resigned to the fact we are on the road for a semifinal even if we win out. As we get closer to the end of the season, the analysis should be on how we avoid the Fargodome. Brookings will be a better alternative, and Tarleton, TX would be a gift.



User avatar
coloradocat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6369
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 pm

Re: Top 2 path

Post by coloradocat » Tue Oct 14, 2025 5:28 pm

ClowderUp wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 5:19 pm
I'm resigned to the fact we are on the road for a semifinal even if we win out. As we get closer to the end of the season, the analysis should be on how we avoid the Fargodome. Brookings will be a better alternative, and Tarleton, TX would be a gift.
NDSU, Tarleton, MSU, SDSU, griz is the dream scenario because the only other way to go to TX instead of a Dakota is to fall to the 6 seed and I just don't see Lehigh getting the 5. But SDSU probably has to at a minimum lose to NDSU by 20 (or lose 2x which is even less likely) for us to jump them.


Eastwood, did not make it. Ball out! Recovered, by Montana State!! The Bobcats hold!!! The Bobcats hold!!!

User avatar
grizzh8r
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 7401
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 11:23 pm
Location: Billings via Livingston

Re: Top 2 path

Post by grizzh8r » Tue Oct 14, 2025 6:34 pm

ClowderUp wrote:
Tue Oct 14, 2025 5:19 pm
I'm resigned to the fact we are on the road for a semifinal even if we win out. As we get closer to the end of the season, the analysis should be on how we avoid the Fargodome. Brookings will be a better alternative, and Tarleton, TX would be a gift.
All depends on conditions. That ice bowl game in Brookings was BRUTAL. Would have much rather played NDSU in the Fargo Dome that day than SDSU.


Eric Curry STILL makes me sad.
94VegasCat wrote:Are you for real? That is just a plain ol dumb paragraph! You just nailed every note in the Full grizidiot - yep , that includes you GRIZFNZ - sing-a-long choir!!!
:rofl:

User avatar
coachouert
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4254
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2005 6:49 am
Location: Bozeman

Re: Top 2 path

Post by coachouert » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:16 pm

Since we're talking paths, here's the initial playoff committee rankings bottom half of the top 10:



Cat_stache_fever listens to Nickelback...and enjoys it.

Image

User avatar
coachouert
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4254
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2005 6:49 am
Location: Bozeman

Re: Top 2 path

Post by coachouert » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm

Full first top ten from the committee:

1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech


Cat_stache_fever listens to Nickelback...and enjoys it.

Image

User avatar
coloradocat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6369
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 pm

Re: Top 2 path

Post by coloradocat » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm

coachouert wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm
Full first top ten from the committee:

1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech
OldGriz in shambles :lol:


Eastwood, did not make it. Ball out! Recovered, by Montana State!! The Bobcats hold!!! The Bobcats hold!!!

User avatar
D-Wreck
Honorable Mention All-BobcatNation
Posts: 834
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:23 am
Location: The Magic City

Re: Top 2 path

Post by D-Wreck » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:34 pm

coloradocat wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm
coachouert wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm
Full first top ten from the committee:

1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech
OldGriz in shambles :lol:
Well this ranking isn't coaches and writer so the committee is too dumb to see the truth obviously.



Prodigal Cat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2325
Joined: Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:50 am

Re: Top 2 path

Post by Prodigal Cat » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:47 pm

Pretty loud message from the committee. Don't schedule D2's and the way you win (eye test) means something.

Griz might not even have a top 2 seed in their control. If they win out and the Dakota States teams only loss is in the Marker, a 12-0 (11-0 vs D1) UM with only a couple ranked wins might not jump the losing xDSU.


Brewer/Owner Copper Furrow Brewing

User avatar
catatac
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 9861
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 1:37 pm

Re: Top 2 path

Post by catatac » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:47 pm

coloradocat wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm
coachouert wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm
Full first top ten from the committee:

1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech
OldGriz in shambles :lol:
LOL. Let's just say there may be some strongly worded emails sent.


Great time to be a BOBCAT!

nanacat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2352
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 2:14 pm

Re: Top 2 path

Post by nanacat » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:52 pm

D-Wreck wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:34 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm
coachouert wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:23 pm
Full first top ten from the committee:

1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton State
4. Montana State
5. Montana
6. UC Davis
7. Lehigh
8. UND
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech
OldGriz in shambles :lol:
Well this ranking isn't coaches and writer so the committee is too dumb to see the truth obviously.
:lol:



Catprint
Honorable Mention All-BobcatNation
Posts: 855
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 8:05 pm

Re: Top 2 path

Post by Catprint » Wed Oct 15, 2025 12:57 pm

Actually, pretty pleasant surprise. Resume does mean something. Strength of Schedule does mean something. Eye test does mean something. Only surprise to me was Lehigh at #7. They are 12 in Massey and SOS is 86th. Don't see how they are better than #8-10 or SIU or Abilene Christian or even Ill. State. Good position for the Cats. Still don't see a top 2 path UNLESS 1) UTT loses a game by a lot and 2) SDSU loses marker AND one other game. But then have to watch out if UND could jump too far up. Other option is if SDSU loses marker by 20 or more and barely wins a couple of games. Just hard to see SDSU getting blown out at home with the longest FCS home winning streak.



smith427
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 101
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:29 pm
Location: Eugene, OR
Contact:

Re: Top 2 path

Post by smith427 » Wed Oct 15, 2025 1:04 pm

I just hope our team doesn't get complacent and walk into missoula over-confident this year. Reminds me of Tommy winning the Payton the night before the natty. Let's hope Vigen keeps the boys hungry.


First and goal, clock winding down. That's Humphrey! It's TOUCHDOWN MONTANA STATE!

tetoncat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4066
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:14 pm
Location: Montana

Re: Top 2 path

Post by tetoncat » Wed Oct 15, 2025 1:09 pm

smith427 wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2025 1:04 pm
I just hope our team doesn't get complacent and walk into missoula over-confident this year. Reminds me of Tommy winning the Payton the night before the natty. Let's hope Vigen keeps the boys hungry.
So your saying Tommy was over confident because he won?


Sports is not bigger than life

Post Reply