Top 2 path

[Catprint]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

[onceacat]

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

Dude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?

a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.

Context matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).

If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.

If you believe what the committee says about their process for selecting seeds this is completely wrong. They vote based on resumes, not potential matchups, at least that's what they say the process is. SOOOOO

Did NDSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = yes and they lost it at home
Did NDSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = no, they were undefeated in the FCS

I'm not sure what else to say. The 2022 Montana State Bobcats were seeded below a team the lost an FCS game at home despite being undefeated. Further Sac St was undefeated vs the FCS and had an FBS win to finish 11-0, one win better than 10-1 SDSU and also had beaten a common opponent (UNI) by a larger margin.

Every time in the last handful of years that the BSC winner has finished tied or 1 win/loss better than an xDSU's, the MVFC team was seeded higher. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Yet somehow a bunch of posters here thinks it'll be different this time. They are right, this time the committee will have a head to head to factor in. One where the Cats LOST. Last season the Cats were undefeated and were the 3 until SDSU picked up a 2nd loss in the marker and didn't get the 1 till the Bison lost their 2nd in the final game. It wasn't until the Cats had 2 extra D1 wins over them before they jumped them.

Lets look at resume's for the Jacks vs the Cats if the Jacks lost the Marker and to ILST.
Cats will be 10-2, 10-1 vs the FCS, with 3 ranked wins
Jacks will be 10-2, 10-2 vs the FCS with 5 ranked wins AND the head to head win vs the Cats. More ranked wins, plays in the MVFC, and the head to head. Winner despite the extra loss.

So keep telling me how i'm wrong but not bringing any sort of historical data. I keep showing the instances that prove what I'm saying is true and you all keep saying "no way" with zero evidence to back it up.

You are wrong because you are ignoring Strength of Schedule. That’s important.

Also ignoring that it turned out that the committee was 100% proven correct by some pretty embarrassing BSC losses in the playoffs.

[RKMCMT]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

We'll be 2 or 3 if we win out. Especially in the fashion we've been winning since Mercyhurst.

Less than zero chance we're outside the top 4.

[onceacat]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

We'll be 2 or 3 if we win out. Especially in the fashion we've been winning since Mercyhurst.

Less than zero chance we're outside the top 4.

Yeah, Catprint is a little off base here IMO. 99%+ chance Cats are Top 4 if they win out. Theres no team below the Cats that has a SOS that gets them to jump the Cats. More likely than not a 10-2 Cats team jumps Tarelton for the #3 spot.

A 9-3 Cats team with a close loss to the #1/#2, Top 10 Oregon, and #4 seed the gris is EASILY a Top 8 seed. Probably the #5, but again, 99% chance of a Top 8. The other potential undefeated teams (Tenn Tech, Harvard, Lehigh) are going to be a stretch to jump the Cats. I just don't see any voter, either in the polls or on the committee punishing the currently #5 Cats for losing on the road in the Brawl...MAYBE if one of these teams is undefeated AND the Cats lose the Brawl by 30+ and aren't rolling teams like Davis & NAU.

People are forgetting the way human psychology works. When a team starts high in the polls in the pre-season, they need to do something to make the voters drop the team in the polls. Likewise, a team that starts low needs to do something to make a pollster move them up.

Theres just not a scenario in which voters drop the 4/5 team multiple spots for losing to the other 4/5 team. Same thing at the top. Pollsters aren't going to drop the loser of the Marker significantly unless theres something else going on.

[MSUBobcat04]

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

Dude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?

a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.

Context matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).

If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.

If you believe what the committee says about their process for selecting seeds this is completely wrong. They vote based on resumes, not potential matchups, at least that's what they say the process is. SOOOOO

Did NDSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = yes and they lost it at home
Did NDSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = no, they were undefeated in the FCS

I'm not sure what else to say. The 2022 Montana State Bobcats were seeded below a team the lost an FCS game at home despite being undefeated. Further Sac St was undefeated vs the FCS and had an FBS win to finish 11-0, one win better than 10-1 SDSU and also had beaten a common opponent (UNI) by a larger margin.

Every time in the last handful of years that the BSC winner has finished tied or 1 win/loss better than an xDSU's, the MVFC team was seeded higher. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Yet somehow a bunch of posters here thinks it'll be different this time. They are right, this time the committee will have a head to head to factor in. One where the Cats LOST. Last season the Cats were undefeated and were the 3 until SDSU picked up a 2nd loss in the marker and didn't get the 1 till the Bison lost their 2nd in the final game. It wasn't until the Cats had 2 extra D1 wins over them before they jumped them.

Lets look at resume's for the Jacks vs the Cats if the Jacks lost the Marker and to ILST.
Cats will be 10-2, 10-1 vs the FCS, with 3 ranked wins
Jacks will be 10-2, 10-2 vs the FCS with 5 ranked wins AND the head to head win vs the Cats. More ranked wins, plays in the MVFC, and the head to head. Winner despite the extra loss.

So keep telling me how i'm wrong but not bringing any sort of historical data. I keep showing the instances that prove what I'm saying is true and you all keep saying "no way" with zero evidence to back it up.

The 3rd place MVFC team is not getting a top-2 seed. No way. If you can't even finish in the top 2 of your own conference, how TF are you #2 in the nation?

You want historical data? How's this:
This millennium, no conference has been awarded both of the top 2 seeds. Ever.
No team has ever received a top 2 seed with 2 FCS losses.
In 2016, SDSU beat NDSU, in Fargo no less. Both were MVFC co-champs (which SDSU could not be this year with 2 losses in-conference). NDSU got the #1, SDSU got #8. Even if SDSU only loses to NDSU, they still need other teams to help them out for both xDSU's to get the #1 and #2. A second FCS loss, the amount of cards that have to fall the right way would be immense.

If H2H is all that matters, why would the hypothetical UND team that beats them not have a leg up on SDSU? How do you square that logic?

[catatac]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

We'll be 2 or 3 if we win out. Especially in the fashion we've been winning since Mercyhurst.

Less than zero chance we're outside the top 4.

Yeah, Catprint is a little off base here IMO. 99%+ chance Cats are Top 4 if they win out. Theres no team below the Cats that has a SOS that gets them to jump the Cats. More likely than not a 10-2 Cats team jumps Tarelton for the #3 spot.

A 9-3 Cats team with a close loss to the #1/#2, Top 10 Oregon, and #4 seed the gris is EASILY a Top 8 seed. Probably the #5, but again, 99% chance of a Top 8. The other potential undefeated teams (Tenn Tech, Harvard, Lehigh) are going to be a stretch to jump the Cats. I just don't see any voter, either in the polls or on the committee punishing the currently #5 Cats for losing on the road in the Brawl...MAYBE if one of these teams is undefeated AND the Cats lose the Brawl by 30+ and aren't rolling teams like Davis & NAU.

People are forgetting the way human psychology works. When a team starts high in the polls in the pre-season, they need to do something to make the voters drop the team in the polls. Likewise, a team that starts low needs to do something to make a pollster move them up.

Theres just not a scenario in which voters drop the 4/5 team multiple spots for losing to the other 4/5 team. Same thing at the top. Pollsters aren't going to drop the loser of the Marker significantly unless theres something else going on.

Completely agree. I think there's a decent chance the Cats get a top two seed if they win out, but that scenario requires one of the DSUs to lose one other game. As for the Cats winning out and not ending up with a top four seed..... that is not a 99% chance deal, it's 100%. Top 4.

[JoeCatsJoe]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

[iaafan]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

It’s annoying but it’s good. I’m glad they’re ranked ahead of us and the media is saying that they’re better and a serious contender for the championship and fawning over them. All that adds motivation to our players. The best thing that can happen is that they’re undefeated for Cat-Griz, ranked ahead of us and favored to win by Vegas.

[Montanabob]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

It’s annoying but it’s good. I’m glad they’re ranked ahead of us and the media is saying that they’re better and a serious contender for the championship and fawning over them. All that adds motivation to our players. The best thing that can happen is that they’re undefeated for Cat-Griz, ranked ahead of us and favored to win by Vegas.

absolutely nothing matters unless we win in the zoo....

[onceacat]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

It’s annoying but it’s good. I’m glad they’re ranked ahead of us and the media is saying that they’re better and a serious contender for the championship and fawning over them. All that adds motivation to our players. The best thing that can happen is that they’re undefeated for Cat-Griz, ranked ahead of us and favored to win by Vegas.

absolutely nothing matters unless we win in the zoo....

Sort of. Although theres a case to be made that the loser of the Brawl (if everything goes chalk) plays a semifinal game at Tarleton State.

Massey's fancy computer matchup algorithm says that the Cats are significantly favored against the Texans (UM is a push). So even if the Cats lose the Brawl, they are the 5 seed & go to 4 see UTT for the best road game imaginable.

No disrespect to the Texans, but this is not the Bearkat team that the Cats beat in 2021.

[iaafan]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

It’s annoying but it’s good. I’m glad they’re ranked ahead of us and the media is saying that they’re better and a serious contender for the championship and fawning over them. All that adds motivation to our players. The best thing that can happen is that they’re undefeated for Cat-Griz, ranked ahead of us and favored to win by Vegas.

absolutely nothing matters unless we win in the zoo....

I don’t see us losing there. We’ve won four out the last 7 there. Nau is better than UM, a tougher venue and we won there by 24.

They’re just not very good and our offense is a terrible matchup for them. Please blitz and do the Casino Royale business because Lamson will eat that up alive.

Our defense is a bad matchup for everyone. We’ve played a variety of offenses and aside from a few plays have completely shut them all down. UM doesn’t do anything great on offense. It’s very inconsistent.

[onceacat]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

It’s annoying but it’s good. I’m glad they’re ranked ahead of us and the media is saying that they’re better and a serious contender for the championship and fawning over them. All that adds motivation to our players. The best thing that can happen is that they’re undefeated for Cat-Griz, ranked ahead of us and favored to win by Vegas.

absolutely nothing matters unless we win in the zoo....

I don’t see us losing there. We’ve won four out the last 7 there. Nau is better than UM, a tougher venue and we won there by 24.

They’re just not very good and our offense is a terrible matchup for them. Please blitz and do the Casino Royale business because Lamson will eat that up alive.

Our defense is a bad matchup for everyone. We’ve played a variety of offenses and aside from a few plays have completely shut them all down. UM doesn’t do anything great on offense. It’s very inconsistent.

This is a good point. Lamson is the first real passer the Cats have had at QB in over a decade. Lots can happen when bodies start flying...but I like Lamsons quickness, accuracy, and decision making against the gris.

[Catprint]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

It’s annoying but it’s good. I’m glad they’re ranked ahead of us and the media is saying that they’re better and a serious contender for the championship and fawning over them. All that adds motivation to our players. The best thing that can happen is that they’re undefeated for Cat-Griz, ranked ahead of us and favored to win by Vegas.

absolutely nothing matters unless we win in the zoo....

Sort of. Although theres a case to be made that the loser of the Brawl (if everything goes chalk) plays a semifinal game at Tarleton State.

Massey's fancy computer matchup algorithm says that the Cats are significantly favored against the Texans (UM is a push). So even if the Cats lose the Brawl, they are the 5 seed & go to 4 see UTT for the best road game imaginable.

No disrespect to the Texans, but this is not the Bearkat team that the Cats beat in 2021.

You are talking about a quarterfinal game here - #1 vs #8; #2 vs #7; #3 vs #6; #4 vs #5. Quite possible. Then winner of UTT vs Cats goes to Fargo Dome to play NDSU. Not the best matchup or place to play a semi-final game for sure. But have to take it.

[Catprint]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

We'll be 2 or 3 if we win out. Especially in the fashion we've been winning since Mercyhurst.

Less than zero chance we're outside the top 4.

Yeah, Catprint is a little off base here IMO. 99%+ chance Cats are Top 4 if they win out. Theres no team below the Cats that has a SOS that gets them to jump the Cats. More likely than not a 10-2 Cats team jumps Tarelton for the #3 spot.

A 9-3 Cats team with a close loss to the #1/#2, Top 10 Oregon, and #4 seed the gris is EASILY a Top 8 seed. Probably the #5, but again, 99% chance of a Top 8. The other potential undefeated teams (Tenn Tech, Harvard, Lehigh) are going to be a stretch to jump the Cats. I just don't see any voter, either in the polls or on the committee punishing the currently #5 Cats for losing on the road in the Brawl...MAYBE if one of these teams is undefeated AND the Cats lose the Brawl by 30+ and aren't rolling teams like Davis & NAU.

People are forgetting the way human psychology works. When a team starts high in the polls in the pre-season, they need to do something to make the voters drop the team in the polls. Likewise, a team that starts low needs to do something to make a pollster move them up.

Theres just not a scenario in which voters drop the 4/5 team multiple spots for losing to the other 4/5 team. Same thing at the top. Pollsters aren't going to drop the loser of the Marker significantly unless theres something else going on.

Completely agree. I think there's a decent chance the Cats get a top two seed if they win out, but that scenario requires one of the DSUs to lose one other game. As for the Cats winning out and not ending up with a top four seed..... that is not a 99% chance deal, it's 100%. Top 4.

So my premise where the Cats could not get a Top 4 seed was a scenario that died this weekend. It was based on SIU beating NDSU; NDSU beating SDSU and all three teams win out otherwise. Results in 3 MVFC teams with 1 FCS loss only to each other. I don't necessarily look down on the Texans as many posters do here. At 12-0; with 3 or 4 ranked wins and an FBS win and they don't get a Top 4 seed? This is same complaint about how could the Cats last year not get the #1 (or #2) seed. I just am more of a odds maker - nothing is 100%. But at this point, if the Cats win out seems no one is going to jump the Cats - even some teams who can still finish undefeated in the FCS if the Cats win out (Tennessee Tech; Monmouth; Harvard; Lehigh;) So we will find out what the committee thinks this week. Here is my guess since my post won't be done by the time the committee releases their Top 10 on Wednesday : 1) NDSU, 2) SDSU, 3) Gris, 4) Tarleton, 5) Cats, 6) Davis, 7) UND, 8 ) Ill State, 9) Tenn Tech, 10) Monmouth. Mind you this is NOT who I think are the 10 best teams in order; only what I think the committee will do at this point in the season. I don't have any issue with the teams on the list; only the order of a few of them.

[kwcat]

[JoeCatsJoe]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

It’s annoying but it’s good. I’m glad they’re ranked ahead of us and the media is saying that they’re better and a serious contender for the championship and fawning over them. All that adds motivation to our players. The best thing that can happen is that they’re undefeated for Cat-Griz, ranked ahead of us and favored to win by Vegas.

absolutely nothing matters unless we win in the zoo....

I don’t see us losing there. We’ve won four out the last 7 there. Nau is better than UM, a tougher venue and we won there by 24.

They’re just not very good and our offense is a terrible matchup for them. Please blitz and do the Casino Royale business because Lamson will eat that up alive.

Our defense is a bad matchup for everyone. We’ve played a variety of offenses and aside from a few plays have completely shut them all down. UM doesn’t do anything great on offense. It’s very inconsistent.

We’ve had some back and forth, I’m more cautiously optimistic about the game in Missoula than you are. There have been a few times I’ve thought there’s no way we get embarrassed over there, only for us to get inexplicably snowballed on in a way I never would have predicted. But one thing we can agree on is that it can only be good for this Cat team to be under ranked and not talked about and the Gris to get pandered to, in the polls and the media. That would make a potential victory all the more sweet.

[nanacat]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

I agree with your thoughts and it's been really tiresome to hear all the kudos to them for all their comeback wins. Against WHO?? Sure, finding a way to win is a big thing, like the Cats win over New Mexico last year. But to "come back" from being down to ISU and Cal Poly? Really? And then no love for the Cats smoking ISU, beating NAU - IN THEIR HOUSE!, it's just annoying!
I'm guessing it's all records based right now. The griz are currently undefeated, doesn't matter, to all those who vote, who their opponents were. I also wonder if the Cats aren't getting much respect due to the story lines regarding how much the Cats lost last year: Tommy, a plethora of senior players and transfers, coaches, etc. Perhaps, despite the dominant wins, there's a thought that the Cats are not who they were before and won't sustain success this season because of that. Like these games they've been winning are somehow flukes?
I'm sure I'm overthinking it, and honestly I know that polls mean nothing on one hand, but with seeding potential they kinda do. Though from reading what you guys all say, who know way more than me about this stuff, SOS also plays a role, and the Cats sure have that!
Prove it on the field, that's the best way. This Cats team has been really fun to watch. So different from many recent years. It sure seems like they're gelling, figuring each other out, and the new coaches too. Like Adam said in his interview, they'll be tough to stop. Beat the griz in zoo town and that'll remove all doubts.

[JoeCatsJoe]

Maybe I'm too much of a fan and I can only see through blue and gold glasses. But I really do not understand the national media's take on the Cats and the Gris this year. I just got done listening to the Bluebloods podcast with Zach McKinnell and Timothy Rosario, and I was both bewildered and a little incredulous at their commentary. Last week, they were sooo impressed at how the Gris "roared back" and "closed out a Big Sky win on the road", against a "potent and explosive" ISU squad. This week, they were drooling over them shutting out CAL FREAKING POLY in the second half, and credited the O for turning it around. Not a blip about how dominant the D was against the "potent and explosive" ISU squad. Not a blip about the ground game looking like last year's. In fact, the only time they mentioned the Cats(other than a quick nod early in the episode to our D being top 3) was to dismissively say that Montana will be the 3 seed, and the Cats the 5. Then to say our strength of schedule is really only propped up by the Oregon game. If you think that the Gris will win and Missoula and take the 3 seed, that's fine. Not a ridiculous take. But it was almost a given between the two hosts, an afterthought that the Gris are better. IDK what the result will be at the end of the season, it may play out that way, but idk how in the world anyone sees it as such an open and shut case at this point at all. But it's getting me fired up for November. I hope we shut up all the loudmouths, both inside this state and out. I'll hop off my soapbox now.

I agree with your thoughts and it's been really tiresome to hear all the kudos to them for all their comeback wins. Against WHO?? Sure, finding a way to win is a big thing, like the Cats win over New Mexico last year. But to "come back" from being down to ISU and Cal Poly? Really? And then no love for the Cats smoking ISU, beating NAU - IN THEIR HOUSE!, it's just annoying!
I'm guessing it's all records based right now. The griz are currently undefeated, doesn't matter, to all those who vote, who their opponents were. I also wonder if the Cats aren't getting much respect due to the story lines regarding how much the Cats lost last year: Tommy, a plethora of senior players and transfers, coaches, etc. Perhaps, despite the dominant wins, there's a thought that the Cats are not who they were before and won't sustain success this season because of that. Like these games they've been winning are somehow flukes?
I'm sure I'm overthinking it, and honestly I know that polls mean nothing on one hand, but with seeding potential they kinda do. Though from reading what you guys all say, who know way more than me about this stuff, SOS also plays a role, and the Cats sure have that!
Prove it on the field, that's the best way. This Cats team has been really fun to watch. So different from many recent years. It sure seems like they're gelling, figuring each other out, and the new coaches too. Like Adam said in his interview, they'll be tough to stop. Beat the griz in zoo town and that'll remove all doubts.

You’re right. The pundits will pontificate, and for whatever reason this year the narrative has been slanted, despite the games on the field speaking loudly. But that’s ok, cuz we have an opportunity to shut em up over in Missoula. Then, the narrative will turn. And narratives don’t impact the game anyway, so the bluster will blow over. If we do what I think we can, and have a game over there that looks similar to what we did to NAU, the top will once again separate themselves from the middle. I love the attitude that our guys seem to have, as well as our trajectory. If we keep it up, this can be another special team.

[Prodigal Cat]

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

Dude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?

a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.

Context matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).

If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.

If you believe what the committee says about their process for selecting seeds this is completely wrong. They vote based on resumes, not potential matchups, at least that's what they say the process is. SOOOOO

Did NDSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = yes and they lost it at home
Did NDSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = no, they were undefeated in the FCS

I'm not sure what else to say. The 2022 Montana State Bobcats were seeded below a team the lost an FCS game at home despite being undefeated. Further Sac St was undefeated vs the FCS and had an FBS win to finish 11-0, one win better than 10-1 SDSU and also had beaten a common opponent (UNI) by a larger margin.

Every time in the last handful of years that the BSC winner has finished tied or 1 win/loss better than an xDSU's, the MVFC team was seeded higher. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Yet somehow a bunch of posters here thinks it'll be different this time. They are right, this time the committee will have a head to head to factor in. One where the Cats LOST. Last season the Cats were undefeated and were the 3 until SDSU picked up a 2nd loss in the marker and didn't get the 1 till the Bison lost their 2nd in the final game. It wasn't until the Cats had 2 extra D1 wins over them before they jumped them.

Lets look at resume's for the Jacks vs the Cats if the Jacks lost the Marker and to ILST.
Cats will be 10-2, 10-1 vs the FCS, with 3 ranked wins
Jacks will be 10-2, 10-2 vs the FCS with 5 ranked wins AND the head to head win vs the Cats. More ranked wins, plays in the MVFC, and the head to head. Winner despite the extra loss.

So keep telling me how i'm wrong but not bringing any sort of historical data. I keep showing the instances that prove what I'm saying is true and you all keep saying "no way" with zero evidence to back it up.

The 3rd place MVFC team is not getting a top-2 seed. No way. If you can't even finish in the top 2 of your own conference, how TF are you #2 in the nation?

You want historical data? How's this:
This millennium, no conference has been awarded both of the top 2 seeds. Ever.
No team has ever received a top 2 seed with 2 FCS losses.
In 2016, SDSU beat NDSU, in Fargo no less. Both were MVFC co-champs (which SDSU could not be this year with 2 losses in-conference). NDSU got the #1, SDSU got #8. Even if SDSU only loses to NDSU, they still need other teams to help them out for both xDSU's to get the #1 and #2. A second FCS loss, the amount of cards that have to fall the right way would be immense.

If H2H is all that matters, why would the hypothetical UND team that beats them not have a leg up on SDSU? How do you square that logic?

Finally someone bringing more than just their opinion. Its flawed data but its data.

To your first point, true no conference has ever gotten the top 2 seeds. But just a few of years ago you had JMU(CAA), Sam Houston(Southern), JSU(Ohio Valley) and a bit further back Georgia Southern(SOCON) vying for top seeds. Those teams are all gone now and more and more the top seeds come from just 2 conferences as those other conferences have faded in competitiveness. Last season 6 of the 8 byes and all top 5 seeds came from either the BSC or MVFC. Its only a matter of time before one of those gets the top 2 seeds and the smart money would be on the Valley. So that argument isn't relevant to the FCS as it's constructed today.
This also accounts for the second point of your post. It was easy to put in a 1 loss JSU or CAA team in the top 2 when those conferences had the teams that helped their SOS. Those teams are gone and so is their SOS. Mercer lost 1 FCS game last season in the SOCON but still only got to the 7 seed and was seeded behind a 2 loss UIW. A few years ago a 1 loss SOCON team was a top 4 and maybe top 2 seed every time. Monmouth is undefeated vs the FCS in the CAA and won't be close to a top 4 and might not even be a top 8 tomorrow. THE CAA!!! Now teams like Tarleton or Tennessee St could go undefeated but they won't sniff a top 2 unless all sorts of chaos happens.
The top 8 have become the gathering point for MVFC and BSC teams with a few other invitees. The FCS has been won by 2 teams over the last decade and a half save a couple exceptions and those 2 teams have earned and keep earning respect they get from the committee. If Tarleton drops a game so will their ability to get a top 4, same for the Griz because their SOS/number of D1 and ranked wins they can achieve. So the top 3 will be a decision between NDSU, SDSU, and MSU if the Cats win out. If the Bison win out they are #1 and it will be very hard for the Cats to jump a team that beat them in the regular season that would have the same number of D1 wins and twice as many ranked wins. The resume, despite 2 FCS losses is better.
To your last point UND already has 2 losses and would lose a 3rd to their in state rival in our hypothetical. They also have one the toughest remaining schedules in all of FCS to only lose 1 remaining game. If they did they would have only 9 D-1 wins and would probably be in the 4,5,6, discussion behind the Cats. Probably behind the griz as well due to...... you guessed it, the head to head.

Heres how I would predict the order in this hypothetical
1. NDSU 12-0
2. SDSU 10-2
3. MSU 10-2
4. UM 11-1
5. Tarleton 11-1
6. UND 9-3
7. UC Davis 9-2
8. Tenn Tech 11-1

[Monymony]

Winning in Missoula will be challenging. The gris have some explosive receivers that will test our secondary. If we can limit number 6 and stuff the run I really like our chances, but that won’t be easy. I think the biggest deciding factor will be striking early and quieting the fans. We haven’t been able to do that recently in Missoula and it has caused the head scratching struggles.