Bobcats vs Idaho 3rd round predictions

[SparkCat]

I keep trying to wrap my head around media hyping up the Idaho injuries, especially Lane. But pretty quite on MSU injuries prior or during that game.
Idaho beat Wyoming and almost UCD without Lane. Then after Cats smoke them it's because of that injury. Why couldn't others defenses shut the backup down?

Hype is the right word for it. They're just trying to justify a reason to give Idaho a chance.

Yup, they need to make a story out of it.

[LazyCat]

34 - 17 CATS!

[TomCat88]

Layne is better than Wager/Josifek, but how much better is the question. I think the passer rating difference is partially due to Layne not playing against Wyoming, UCD and MSU. Instead of being 50 points more efficient, it's probably more like 25-30. As Vigen and Eck said, he won the job coming out of camp and there's a reason for that. He's better.

Thomas and Cummings are 1 and 1A at running back. Missing Thomas hurt them, but Cummings is much of a drop off. I don't think the fact Cummings didn't play in the second half was much of a factor.

It's hard to quantify the injuries to Keyshawn and Afalava. Keyshawn didn't seem to miss much of the action, while Afalava didn't seem to play much upon rewatching. The Bertram targeting penalty occurred midway through the second quarter with MSU up 14-0. He's the seventh leading tackler on the team in a reserve/rotational role, so he's a good player. Like Cummings, I don't think Bertram missing the rest of the game was much of a factor.

I don't recall how long MSU was without Schmidt and C. Dowler. A week or two, I believe. MSU lost Danny U late in the half with 21-0 lead and the defense didn't seem to drop off in the second half without him. Dowler being replaced by Polidore is basically a wash with the only effect being depth at safety. Same for Schmidt and Brott.

I don't think Idaho will lose by 31-42 points. I say 42 because MSU had a good chance at a TD before half had it not been for the inadvertent whistle and I'm not sure Idaho scores late and the TD it had might not have been a catch. I'd guess MSU by 17 based on the last game and who's playing/healthy for this game.

[cats2506]

here is my thoughts on Jack Layne, he is being hyped up because he is their only shot at looking good in this game.
He had 1 "big" game against Oregon, he went 11/25 for 168, with 1 td and 1 int.
Not that great, but he was largely playing against Oregon's backups.
He comes back after the injury and has 3 good games against 3 of the weaker defenses in the BSC.
he has a really good game against Lehigh, who was completely outmatched.

Now he goes into Bobcat Stadium against a top 10 defense with a hostile crowd. this kid is still green and I think that we will pressure and confuse him and may even break him. He doesn't seem very mature and this will be the biggest game of his life. I wont be surprised if we see Wagner before the end of the game.

Smoke and mirrors is all that Idaho has to go on for this game.

[CelticCat]

Everyone is focusing on how much better Idaho is offensively with Layne. And it's a story for sure.

I decided to check their defensive stats from their games before and after MSU. I did not use the MSU stats in these. Keep in mind their 1st half schedule was much tougher than their second half schedule:

Rushing Defense:
Pre MSU - 93.3 YPG
Post MSU - 130.67 YPG

Passing Defense:
Pre MSU - 261 YPG
Post MSU - 219.67 YPG

Scoring Defense:
Pre MSU - 19.83 PPG
Post MSU - 23.5 PPG

It looks like teams figured out how to run and score on them, likely because of some film MSU laid out for other teams to use.

I don't know, I don't see how their defensive performance will be that much better unless their offense gets a lot more possessions, which is certainly a possibility and likely a probability. I just don't see this combination swinging the game by more than 21 points, which still means MSU wins by a few scores.

[rfischer94]

Everyone is focusing on how much better Idaho is offensively with Layne. And it's a story for sure.

I decided to check their defensive stats from their games before and after MSU. I did not use the MSU stats in these. Keep in mind their 1st half schedule was much tougher than their second half schedule:

Rushing Defense:
Pre MSU - 93.3 YPG
Post MSU - 130.67 YPG

Passing Defense:
Pre MSU - 261 YPG
Post MSU - 219.67 YPG

Scoring Defense:
Pre MSU - 19.83 PPG
Post MSU - 23.5 PPG

It looks like teams figured out how to run and score on them, likely because of some film MSU laid out for other teams to use.

I don't know, I don't see how their defensive performance will be that much better unless their offense gets a lot more possessions, which is certainly a possibility and likely a probability. I just don't see this combination swinging the game by more than 21 points, which still means MSU wins by a few scores.

The Bobcat hangover?

[Vandaldc1]

Just stopped by to say hi and congrats on a great season. You've got an impressive team that looks to have the potential to win it all this year. Will be cheering for the winner of this game to go all the way. I agree with Eck's comments, it will take a near perfect game for Idaho to win. Tommy M and that offensive line are dominant. I think it's possible Idaho can win but would take some breaks and great execution. Hopefully it's a great game. One note. One poster said U of O's lone was banged up. That's not accurate - they were missing one starter. I live in Eugene and follow UO football pretty closely and was at the game. Honestly they took us for granted as an fcs school with a prediction of winning by 50+ and they got outcoached. Hopefully they do the same for you next year because playing in Autzen is tough sledding. Would live to see MSU represent the Big Sky well. Looking forward to a great game tomorrow!

[Catgotmytung]

Thanks, Idaho. Ditto. There's a lot of comments here and a lot of stats but one thing for sure is come game time, none of it really matters - you still have to get it done on the field. A couple of turnovers, penaltys, who knows what can change the course of a game. I know coach Eck will put together a great game plan and if the Bobcats win, they will have to earn it. Looking forward to a great game also.

[centralmtfan]

I believe we control this game and win 41-14. My biggest concern with Idaho is their tall receivers, as we struggled at times with big receivers. If the D-Line can swarm the QB and make it tough to throw a good pass, Idaho is in trouble.

[CodyCat]

Just stopped by to say hi and congrats on a great season. You've got an impressive team that looks to have the potential to win it all this year. Will be cheering for the winner of this game to go all the way. I agree with Eck's comments, it will take a near perfect game for Idaho to win. Tommy M and that offensive line are dominant. I think it's possible Idaho can win but would take some breaks and great execution. Hopefully it's a great game. One note. One poster said U of O's lone was banged up. That's not accurate - they were missing one starter. I live in Eugene and follow UO football pretty closely and was at the game. Honestly they took us for granted as an fcs school with a prediction of winning by 50+ and they got outcoached. Hopefully they do the same for you next year because playing in Autzen is tough sledding. Would live to see MSU represent the Big Sky well. Looking forward to a great game tomorrow!

Thanks for coming over and posting. Appreciate it. I agree with everything you've said. Its hard to even wrap my head around the Cats losing this one. But, Eck is a tremendous coach. And upsets happen all the time in sports. Idaho being great is good for the Big Sky and the FCS landscape. So, I hope that continues. If you are coming over, travel safe. And Go Cats.

[Long Time Cat]

The Idaho fan board is Egriz but with about 10 posters. I went over there and made a couple comments. They are predicting they win by scores like 24-17 or 28-24 and I pointed out that the Cat's are averaging 45 points at home so holding them to a 1/3 or 1/2 of that is not a reasonable expectation. Nothing but trashing the MSU fanbase. No football discussion at all. Won't be going back.

I can’t stand the Vandal fans. They’ve been terrible since joining the Big Sky. The are on par with gris fans.

This is a bad take! I live in Idaho and wear Cats gear lots. Even here the only smack I get is from gris fans. (Quite a few here.) Even at games in Moscow they’re decent. Most are glad to be back in the Big Sky and most hate the gris.

[CodyCat]

The Idaho fan board is Egriz but with about 10 posters. I went over there and made a couple comments. They are predicting they win by scores like 24-17 or 28-24 and I pointed out that the Cat's are averaging 45 points at home so holding them to a 1/3 or 1/2 of that is not a reasonable expectation. Nothing but trashing the MSU fanbase. No football discussion at all. Won't be going back.

I can’t stand the Vandal fans. They’ve been terrible since joining the Big Sky. The are on par with gris fans.

This is a bad take! I live in Idaho and wear Cats gear lots. Even here the only smack I get is from gris fans. (Quite a few here.) Even at games in Moscow they’re decent. Most are glad to be back in the Big Sky and most hate the gris.

Thats fantastic to hear. Just different experiences. Now, if I were making this post back in my college days, I can guarantee you that I brought it all on. But now, I just live in my own little world.

[RickRund]

The Idaho fan board is Egriz but with about 10 posters. I went over there and made a couple comments. They are predicting they win by scores like 24-17 or 28-24 and I pointed out that the Cat's are averaging 45 points at home so holding them to a 1/3 or 1/2 of that is not a reasonable expectation. Nothing but trashing the MSU fanbase. No football discussion at all. Won't be going back.

I can’t stand the Vandal fans. They’ve been terrible since joining the Big Sky. The are on par with gris fans.

This is a bad take! I live in Idaho and wear Cats gear lots. Even here the only smack I get is from gris fans. (Quite a few here.) Even at games in Moscow they’re decent. Most are glad to be back in the Big Sky and most hate the gris.

Gotta agree. The banter with Vandal fans has been 100% positive. "Normal" gris fans also OK. The "others", not so much.

[BelgradeBobcat]

Just stopped by to say hi and congrats on a great season. You've got an impressive team that looks to have the potential to win it all this year. Will be cheering for the winner of this game to go all the way. I agree with Eck's comments, it will take a near perfect game for Idaho to win. Tommy M and that offensive line are dominant. I think it's possible Idaho can win but would take some breaks and great execution. Hopefully it's a great game. One note. One poster said U of O's lone was banged up. That's not accurate - they were missing one starter. I live in Eugene and follow UO football pretty closely and was at the game. Honestly they took us for granted as an fcs school with a prediction of winning by 50+ and they got outcoached. Hopefully they do the same for you next year because playing in Autzen is tough sledding. Would live to see MSU represent the Big Sky well. Looking forward to a great game tomorrow!

Unfortunately, with what Idaho almost did to them, the Ducks probably won't be taking Bobcats for granted. Oh well, it should still be fun and a nice paycheck.

[canyoncat]

Have to admit this game worries me. Hard to beat a team twice and as we all know Eck is a heck of a coach. However Cats are home large very load crowd. Close at half, but the Cats pull away and win 38 - 24.

[tetoncat]

Just stopped by to say hi and congrats on a great season. You've got an impressive team that looks to have the potential to win it all this year. Will be cheering for the winner of this game to go all the way. I agree with Eck's comments, it will take a near perfect game for Idaho to win. Tommy M and that offensive line are dominant. I think it's possible Idaho can win but would take some breaks and great execution. Hopefully it's a great game. One note. One poster said U of O's lone was banged up. That's not accurate - they were missing one starter. I live in Eugene and follow UO football pretty closely and was at the game. Honestly they took us for granted as an fcs school with a prediction of winning by 50+ and they got outcoached. Hopefully they do the same for you next year because playing in Autzen is tough sledding. Would live to see MSU represent the Big Sky well. Looking forward to a great game tomorrow!

Unfortunately, with what Idaho almost did to them, the Ducks probably won't be taking Bobcats for granted. Oh well, it should still be fun and a nice paycheck.

Big time FBS will always overlook FCS. Statistically Oregon dominated, just not on scoreboard. Hard for those teams to emotionally get up for these games. Similar discussion on crowd noise, UTM compared atmosphere to SEC and Idaho did to Oregon. It may be louder for that game but it is because those FBS fans are not into it expecting a blowout.

[catatac]

As stated earlier, I am nervous for this game as well, but that's the same for every game, lol. One thing that does not make me nervous the whole, hard to beat a team twice narrative. I don't even think that's a thing, but I've heard coaches say it so who knows.

[BelgradeBobcat]

Just stopped by to say hi and congrats on a great season. You've got an impressive team that looks to have the potential to win it all this year. Will be cheering for the winner of this game to go all the way. I agree with Eck's comments, it will take a near perfect game for Idaho to win. Tommy M and that offensive line are dominant. I think it's possible Idaho can win but would take some breaks and great execution. Hopefully it's a great game. One note. One poster said U of O's lone was banged up. That's not accurate - they were missing one starter. I live in Eugene and follow UO football pretty closely and was at the game. Honestly they took us for granted as an fcs school with a prediction of winning by 50+ and they got outcoached. Hopefully they do the same for you next year because playing in Autzen is tough sledding. Would live to see MSU represent the Big Sky well. Looking forward to a great game tomorrow!

Unfortunately, with what Idaho almost did to them, the Ducks probably won't be taking Bobcats for granted. Oh well, it should still be fun and a nice paycheck.

Big time FBS will always overlook FCS. Statistically Oregon dominated, just not on scoreboard. Hard for those teams to emotionally get up for these games. Similar discussion on crowd noise, UTM compared atmosphere to SEC and Idaho did to Oregon. It may be louder for that game but it is because those FBS fans are not into it expecting a blowout.

I think that bit us in 2022 against Oregon State. The Beavers had lost to Sac State I believe the season or two before. It did not go well against a pretty loaded OSU team-especially offense.

[coloradocat]

Just stopped by to say hi and congrats on a great season. You've got an impressive team that looks to have the potential to win it all this year. Will be cheering for the winner of this game to go all the way. I agree with Eck's comments, it will take a near perfect game for Idaho to win. Tommy M and that offensive line are dominant. I think it's possible Idaho can win but would take some breaks and great execution. Hopefully it's a great game. One note. One poster said U of O's lone was banged up. That's not accurate - they were missing one starter. I live in Eugene and follow UO football pretty closely and was at the game. Honestly they took us for granted as an fcs school with a prediction of winning by 50+ and they got outcoached. Hopefully they do the same for you next year because playing in Autzen is tough sledding. Would live to see MSU represent the Big Sky well. Looking forward to a great game tomorrow!

Unfortunately, with what Idaho almost did to them, the Ducks probably won't be taking Bobcats for granted. Oh well, it should still be fun and a nice paycheck.

Big time FBS will always overlook FCS. Statistically Oregon dominated, just not on scoreboard. Hard for those teams to emotionally get up for these games. Similar discussion on crowd noise, UTM compared atmosphere to SEC and Idaho did to Oregon. It may be louder for that game but it is because those FBS fans are not into it expecting a blowout.

I think that bit us in 2022 against Oregon State. The Beavers had lost to Sac State I believe the season or two before. It did not go well against a pretty loaded OSU team-especially offense.

To be fair, that was an unusually good Oregon State team. They are usually a beatable team but we happened to get them in the one year they could actually play FBS-level football.

[ike11ike]

As stated earlier, I am nervous for this game as well, but that's the same for every game, lol. One thing that does not make me nervous the whole, hard to beat a team twice narrative. I don't even think that's a thing, but I've heard coaches say it so who knows.

catatac always on the fence