2024 Edition- Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 13 - END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION

[MSU01]

We will know a lot more when the committee releases its initial ranking this week. If they have NDSU at #1 then there's no reason why they wouldn't stay there if they win out. Alternatively if MSU is #1 you could argue the same, as MSU's remaining schedule is certainly on par with NDSU's in terms of strength of remaining opponents.

I also think it's quite unlikely that MSU, SDSU, and NDSU will all win the rest of their games. The DSUs both play South Dakota and a pretty good Missouri State team, plus SDSU still has to go to UND. And we all know about the tough games left on MSU's schedule.

The good news is that this is not going to be another repeat of 2022 when MSU didn't have full control of its seeding spot due to not getting to play Sac State. This year, MSU gets to earn that top 2 seed and I firmly believe they'll get it if they win out.

[Catprint]

Great info! For what it's worth, it makes zero difference to me whether the Cats are the #1 or #2 seed, as long as it's one of them. Zero. Yes I know there would be a slight advantage of 1 versus 2, in terms of the bracket and the potential of playing just one versus two of the DSUs, but again, I don't care. If the Cats can't beat any team in the country in Bozeman, where we have a huge advantage, we don't deserve to make it to Frisco. Then if we can't beat any team in the country on a neutral field, we don't deserve the title. Just my opinions of course.

I almost wonder if we're better off getting the 2 seed and facing SDSU at home and hoping someone can pull off a huge upset against NDSU in Fargo. The upside is we could potentially only have to play one of the teams and it would be at home. The downside is the upset doesn't happen and we have to beat both teams back to back.

IF NDSU gets the #1 seed, I just dont know who would have a punchers chance at knocking them off in Fargo. Yes, upsets happen, and anybody can beat anybody on any given day. But, the likelyhood of that seems almost non existent. Who are the teams that would have a chance? Nobody outside of MSU in the Big Sky. Out of the MVFC, SDSU and USD. I think USD is a huge maybe.

UIW almost did it a couple years ago, so it's entirely possible. I think a solid running team would have a chance. The NDSU D has not been good against the run this year.

Playoffs are all about home field advantage and matchups. Getting the right team to play makes a huge difference. It is part of the reason Sac State lost even though they had a #2 seed. The UIW game was a poor matchup for Sac State. Similarly, i believe the Cats would do better against a Mercer or a South Dakota in a semi-final game than against a SEMO or a NDSU. Typically, in most years, there is one or two teams in the Quarterfinals or even in the semi's who simply don't belong there. I think of Furman last year in the quarters and uAlbany in the semis. Idaho would have given SDSU a much better game in the semi-final. So I think it is highly important to get the right matchups. Under the new rules, we won't see the #6 seed play the #9 seed in the second round simply because of regionalization. And we don't have to beat all the best teams to get win the Natty. SDSU didn't beat NDSU in the playoffs (yes, i know they beat them during the regular season). SDSU practically had a cake walk to the Natty last year because of the matchups. In general, the winner of the Natty didn't beat all the best teams; they beat the teams on their schedule. So I still argue being the #1 seed is a HUGE advantage and gives the Cats better odds of wining the Natty. Frankly, FCS championships reflect that fact.

But I agree if NDSU wins out (likely but not a given), they will get the number 1 seed except in the very odd scenario I laid out in my post. At this point, the Cats do not control their destiny to the #1 seed. But we I am 95% confident we control the #2 seed. The bigger question is if the Cats drop a game and some other teams lose as well. That is a topic for another day.

[Catprint]

Week 10–Cats Best Offense and Defense!; Big Sky Stretch; Playoff Selections

Who We Wanted to Lose

Not a great week for who we wanted to lose but did get three of the games to go our way.

• Gardner-Webb @ SEMO – SEMO TO LOSE - MISSED IT. SEMO continues to Roll
• Maine @ Rhode Island –URI to LOSE. MISSED IT
• New Hampshire @ Nova – NOVA to LOSE. MISSED IT
• W& M @ Stony Brook –W&M to LOSE. GOT IT. Mixed Bag. W&M may miss the bracket
• WCU @ Mercer –WCU to LOSE. GOT IT.
• ETSU @ Wofford –ETSU to LOSE. MISSED IT.
• UIW @ SELA –UIW to LOSE. MISSED IT. UIW really needs a loss.
• South Dakota @ SDSU – USD to LOSE. GOT IT. Follows my MVFC plan to get Cats #1 seed.


Who we want to Lose this week

This week I will limit my preferences to those teams with a clear challenge to a top 8 seed and of course, deal with Big Sky games separately. It is a small set of games this week.

• Monmouth @ URI – URI finds itself at #14 in the Stats Poll with 7 FCS wins and 6 in a row. Unfortunately, none of those wins are against a ranked team and it appears none of their future games will be so. Even so, URI is ranked 16th in Massey which is used by the committee. Monmouth at 4-4 could still get into the playoffs but their schedule is brutal – URI, UNH, Nova and Stony Brook – 4 teams with a combined record of 23-9. There is no way they will win out so we would like URI TO LOSE.

• Towson @ Richmond – Pretty simple. Richmond is hot and moving up into the Top 10 if they keep winning. RICHMOND TO LOSE.

• Chattanooga @ WCU – Now that WCU has lost last week and is 4-4; we need Chattanooga to be cut down to size. Five wins in a row and then a plush schedule after this game, could push Chat up to the Top 10 even with three losses. Frankly, why Chattanooga at 5-3 is #18 and Idaho at 6-3 is #10 is perplexing. I think Chat is going to be an issue come selection Sunday so CHAT TO LOSE.

• ETSU @ Mercer – ETSU is moving up the ladder but they are a long way from the Top 10. Seems like the Mercer mighty D has some holes. Mercer is highly thought of and likely will win but all the more reason for MERCER TO LOSE.

• Houston Christian @ UIW – Maybe this game should not be in my list but since Houston Christian beat Abilene Christian earlier this year, I think the Huskies have a chance. UIW should not be in the TOP 10 Playoff list and they have not beat anyone. So UIW TO LOSE.


CAT-P

The CAT-P continues to have a fairly familiar layout. The top five teams are clearly held in higher regard by the voters, computer rankings and other ranking systems vs the 2nd Tier (#6-#10). The difference between #1 (NDSU) and #5(UC Davis) is 4.67 while #6 (SEMO) is 3.6 points below number 5. Tier 3 has a wider spread and is joined by UND who dropped from Tier 2 to Tier 3 after the devastating loss to YSU. No new teams joined the Top 15 this week.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Best Offense/Defense Stats

• Offense – The Cats are still the best offense in the FCS and it is not even close. In my aggregate stats, The Cats rank a 2.00. The closest team is a tie between NDSU and Central Arkansas at 10.50. Third place is South Dakota at 14.50 which is a significant drop after the defensive battle last week. MSU is the only team that has consistent high ranks across all four categories. It is my contention we are a balanced offense with a high scoring ability. Now, granted, as I write below, the SOS has an impact. The next four games will certainly be a challenge. Also, note I have included Eastern this week in our chart. More about the matchup later.

• Defense – On the other side of the ball, I was surprised what that stats continue to show. Even with two outstanding defensive games involving the Top Three in the MVFC, The Cats still maintain their place as the number one defense in the FCS. While it is a little closer, the Cats have a rank of 10 and the nearest team is USD at 12.75 and SDSU at 13.50. Again, if you look closely at the chart, we are extremely well balanced as we have low ranks in all the categories. Even the #21 passing yards allowed is actually the best of any top 15 ranked team.

• Aggregate Scores – The Cats are clearly the best team on a pure statistical basis without regard to SOS since stats cannot take that into account. However, if you consider the number of minutes the first team offense and defense have not played this year, it is even more remarkable. With a rank of 6.00, the nearest team is USD at 13.63 and NDSU at 14.38. Fourth in the Aggregate is SDSU. I would argue these combined stats are a surprisingly good indicator as the Top four teams in the poll match my combined statistical analysis.

• As a final comment, I expect our standings in these stats to drop lower over the next four games, even if we play well and win every game. The next four games present their own challenges and it seems unlikely the Cats can maintain a 500 YPG: 42-point scoring average as an example. It will be interesting to see how the stats reflect the nature and outcome of these games.


CLICK TO ENLARGE


Committee Top 10 And Seeds

I won’t beat to death the committees Top 10. Lots to be said about it in nearly every podcast I listened to this week. The consensus is the committee got the first five correct. After that, it is more about the order of the second five and who got left out. The biggest question marks around why URI and Tarleton State are left out with ZERO FCS losses while Gris and Idaho with 2 FCS losses are in the top 10. It appears SOS is the reason because Gris at 30 SOS and Idaho at 5.

Certainly, most of them deserve to be in that list. I thought I would take a look ONLY at win-loss records for the top teams and more specifically, the loss record. Here is my “probably worthy” to be considered for a Top 8 seed list with some discussion.

• Zero Losses -1
o Cats

• Zero FCS Losses/One FBS Loss - 5
o NDSU
o UC Davis
o SEMO
o URI
o Tarleton State

• One FCS Loss Only - 1
o Mercer

• One FCS Loss/One or Two FBS Losses - 7
o Chattanooga
o Richmond
o Villanova
o Stony Brook
o South Dakota
o SDSU
o Central Arkansas

• Two FCS Losses with Strong SOS - 4
o Gris
o Idaho
o Illinois State
o UIW

The total number of teams in consideration here is 18 teams. Nearly all of these teams (sans Stony Brook, Chattanooga, and Illinois State) are in the Top 15 in the Stats poll. The removal of the Stats Poll and the Coaches Poll as a usable data point is controversial. Stats poll was only usable for 1 year (last year) before it was yanked. In its place is Massey, KPI and ESPN FCS Power Index/KPI. The ESPN index is not available to the public. Massey is well respected but this KPI is something not familiar in FCS land. It comes out of Michigan State athletic department and a guy named Kevin Pauga. I can’t pretend to know anything more. And since the ESPN metric is not available, we have NO idea how the committee will come to final seeding decisions.

I still think it is too early to have any sort of bracket that has the remotest chance of being correct but if you want to see one, Go to herosports.com (https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-3-bzbz/) or for real enjoyment, go to https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fc ... acketology where the bracket changes constantly. My point is there could still be 10-12 teams with only 1 FCS loss or even two losses with a great SOS and resume vying for the Top 4 and Top 8 seeds.

What I hope to do this weekend after the games is to create a table with the top 15 teams and how we would like to see their final three games play out to the Cats advantage. I wanted to do it before the 2 Nov games but ran out of time. Few games this week are challenging enough to disturb the lay of the land. It’s possible that none of the top 15 will lose this week.

Playoff Status for the Big Sky

A quick look this week since there were only three games last week. 8 wins is a lock. 7 D-1 wins minimum. More detail next week after a full slate of games.

LOCK (1)
Cats have eight D-1 wins and some company now in the lock category – SEMO: NDSU

SHOULD BE IN (3)
1) Davis - 7 D1 wins but have UM, MSU and Sac State to finish the season. Win out and they are the Big Sky Champ but then so is MSU or the Gris.
2) Gris – 6 D1 wins.
3) Idaho – 6 D1 wins.

SLIM
NO TEAMS – Sac drops out with a loss

ALMOST ZERO – Must Win Out (3)
Mathematically 1 of these teams could get in but a ton of other teams in other conferences have to lose key games for them to be even a smidgeon of hope.
1) Weber OR NAU – Only one can win out. Better chance of NAU but they have a non-counter so 8-4 is only 7-4 to the committee.
2) NAU -play Weber, Cal Poly, UNC and Eastern.
3) Sac State – Win out against the likes of PSU, MSU and UC Davis. Hmmm. And then pray 7 wins gets someone in on the bubble.

OUT (5)
Last week’s addition is EWU with 6 losses joining ISU, PSU, UNC, and Cal Poly as out of the playoffs.

Still looks like this is not great as the Big Sky has only four teams likely to be in the playoffs. More parity in the Sky; more parity in the FCS.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Big Sky Scores and Predictions

• Weber State @ NAU – Loser out. The winner hanging on to a pipe dream for the playoffs but at least hoping for a winning record. Weber has simply been unreal – Up and Down worse than a Yo-Yo. Since we don’t play either team, no real impact on our SOS but I think NAU wins. Plus, this damages Gris SOS because of the Weber Loss. WEBER TO LOSE by 15.

• UNC @ UC Davis – Could Ed Lamb pull a second upset. Odder things have happened. I mean Davis as the 99th rated passing defense. Maybe a fumble or two or three here or there? Overall, I think it more likely Vanderbilt beats Alabama than UNC beats Davis… Well, maybe. Davis by 20 at least.

• Gris @ Cal Poly – Whatever. Gris shows some spine but gives up a few points. Cal Poly to Lose by 18.

• PSU @ Sac State – I can’t believe the total collapse of Sac State. Will they even put up a fight in their last four games? I really was hoping they would be 5-3 and ranked at this point so we could have a ranked win. PSU could win if Sac can’t contain Chachere. Upset Special of the Week – PSU by 7.

First Half vs Second Half Cats Schedule

Lots of conversation in just about every forum/twitter conversation/podcast about MSU’s schedule. Before we look at some specifics, there is a lot of truth to the situation but still some nuances.

First, we can only play who is on our schedule. Certainly, a number of the teams were not as good as originally thought. Maybe every team in the Big Sky will be terrible this year except two or three. That will hurt any winning team’s SOS.

Second, The Cats have done what they can do. They have dominated every FCS game and played the 2nd/3rd team in every game sometimes for upwards of 2 quarters.

Third, lots of the top 15 teams have weak SOS’s or questionable wins. Look at SDSU’s weak victory over a DII team or SEMO’ s Future SOS of 82 yet the playoff committee currently thinks they are a Top 6 seed if the season ended this week.

Fourth, ratings like Massey and Sagarin do take into account SOS but they also use other factors such as win-loss; points scored, etc. to determine their positions. By Massey’s ratings, Cats are #3 in the country. By Sagarin power score, we are 3rd in the FCS ahead of 55 FBS teams.

Now that I got that off my chest, the second half of the Big Sky conference schedule is WAY different than the first half. I am not nearly as optimistic as many who think we will win out. I think one loss is highly probable and two is possible, Let’s look at the schedule and in particular the offense/defense stats. In this look, I have chosen to ONLY look at in-conference stats so we can eliminate the highs and lows of out of conference games.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Here are a few observations for what they are worth.

1) The YPG of the First Half Cats opponents is 354 YPG. The current YPG of our Second Half Schedule is over 469. This is a difference of 115 YPG or a 32% improvement. There is no question we are facing teams with a higher offensive output in conference games.
2) However, three of the four teams we played all had their lowest offensive output against the Cats. In simple terms, a part of the reason our first half schedule has fewer YPG is because the Cats held them way below their average. As an example, Idaho State averages 434 YPG outside of our game where we held them to 276 YPG which is 150 below their average.
3) The yards given up by our first four opponents is actually about the same as the next four. Only about 7 years difference a game. Statistically insignificant. This indicates that the defenses of Eastern, Sac State, Davis and Gris are not any better than the teams we have already faced. And again, in three of our first four games, our offense produced the most YPG the opponent gave up so far this season.
4) These defensive numbers pretty much line up with the aggregate stats in my earlier chart. Gris and Davis rank in the mid 55’s while Eastern has one of the worst defenses in the FCS. And contrary to recent articles I have read, they are not getting better. They cannot stop the run or the pass.
5) Finally, we have held 3 out of 4 opponents to below their season offensive average and in 3 out of 4 games our offense gained more yards than any other opponents. Overall, this gives me some sense of balance in the schedule and what could happen in the next four games. Not to say we will roll over all the remaining opponents. I don’t see that happening at all. Just that these teams do not show to be statistically significantly better than those we have already faced; at least not in aggregate.

CATS VS EASTERN

Pretty much every game from here on out scares me. Clearly, the best path to a Natty is 8 straight wins. On top of the 8 the Cats already have put on the table; this becomes a 16-win season which by my search has only happened once in FCS history. (2019 NDSU). This would simply be a once in a lifetime achievement. In my economy of football, I think one regular season loss, still securing a number 2 seed (hard to do) and winning 4 in a row in the playoffs is a much more realistic scenario. I just can’t see any team putting together a 16 game winning streak this year.

That said, the game against Eastern is not that one loss. We need to win this game. The Red Turf has proven to be a difficult place to play for the Cats. The last two games in Cheney, we won by 3 points each time. The previous three games we lost, mostly by large margins. But look at this year. The Gris had never beaten the Eagles on the red turf until this year and UC Davis had never beaten Eastern on any turf until this year. So maybe, the past will not be a prologue of the future.

Eastern will be a challenge. They will score. They have had success in the air and on the ground. They have run more than 200 YPG in multiple games. At this point, their offensive score in my aggregate statistics is better than Davis, Idaho, SDSU, Mercer, Tarleton State, UIW and SEMO – All teams in the Top 15. Holding Eastern to 400 yards would be a tremendous success.

Countering the Eagles proliferation on offense is their missing defense. Ranked at around 118, there are only a handful of teams with a worse defense. This will be the key to the game. Cats have to score touchdowns at least on every other possession and avoid field goals. It will come down to more stops on our part than Eastern gets. I can see a 10-17 point victory but Eastern still scoring 21-28 points. Even though our First Team Defense has never given up more than 17 points (against UNM), we easily could give up 28 points to Eastern but still win easily. Otherwise, I am not capable of breaking down the game. But Vigen and the players know it is 1-0 mentality. If Cats are good, we will win this game. Can’t have a down game against a 2-6 Eastern no matter how close they played the last four ranked teams they played.

But this game concerns me way more than the Sac State game.

GO CATS!

[Catprint]

WEEK 11 – Top 8 Seeds; Who we want to Lose; Big Sky Playoff Status and Predictions

After we review our standard features (who lost; who we want to lose; The CAT-P; Aggregate Stats), we will look at the top teams in the FCS and make two sets of predictions for the TOP 8 seeds. Next week, I will introduce my full bracket with emphasis on how the Cats are situated.

Who We Wanted to Lose

I guess I need to open up the playbook for the possibilities. I didn’t put three games on the list last week because I did not see them as possible. But Utah Tech got their first win of the year by downing #11 Central Arkansas 34-21. Utah Tech, the punching bag for the Big Sky in non-conference play (lost 3 games by a combined 108-38), came out smoking and was up on UCA 24-7 before halftime. While Utah Tech outgained the Bears, it was the 6 turnovers that killed UCA. Then in the night cap, EKU toppled the Texas Darling – Tarleton State, who was undefeated in the FCS. Both of these losses help out Big Sky teams, particularly the Gris and Idaho. Even with the tough games ahead, it is possible for the Big Sky to get 4 teams in the Top 8 but almost guaranteed 4 teams seeded in the Top 16 and maybe top 12. The advantage to the Cats is the higher the Gris are ranked, the better for our resume when we win the brawl. However, UND’s loss to Cellar Dweller Indiana State really bruises the SOS of the Gris. UND will no longer be ranked after they lose to SDSU this week. More on that later.

• Monmouth @ URI –URI TO LOSE. MISSED IT even though Monmouth led in the 4th.
• Towson @ Richmond –RICHMOND TO LOSE. MISSED IT. I see Richmond as a tough team to play come post season.
• Chattanooga @ WCU –CHAT TO LOSE. GOT THIS ONE. Really messes up the SoCon and who gets in the playoffs. Hard to see they get 3 in.
• ETSU @ Mercer –MERCER TO LOSE.MISSED IT. Bright side is ETSU likely to end the season unranked, hurting NDSU’s SOS.
• Houston Christian @ UIW – UIW TO LOSE. Missed it

Who we want to lose this week

Open the playbook. Anything is possible. I do cover the top teams again in a special seeding chart for the last three weeks of games. But I will review by conference here.

Big South/OVC
• SEMO @ Lindenwood –Been wishing upon a star to defeat SEMO all year but maybe it comes from 4-6 Lindenwood. Maybe SEMO gets surprised on the way to 11-1. SEMO TO LOSE.

CAA – Loaded with opportunities. Not sure any team in the CAA is Top 10 worthy but 3-5 will make it into the playoffs.
• UAlbany @ Stony Brook – UAlbany has not been anything resembling good since early season “Too high” rankings. But Stony Brook has proven to be beatable. I mean, how do you go from 0-11 last year to 7-2 with a chance to be 9-3? Good Coaching for sure. STONY BROOK TO LOSE.

• URI @ Delaware – FINALLY, a team that might be able to beat URI. Talk about a low bar when it comes to the schedule. URI has beaten no one that could be called a quality win. If they pulled off the upset at Delaware, this certainly could be one. With no FCS losses, we need URI TO LOSE.

• Richmond @ Campbell – This is really stretching credibility but hey, Campbell did beat Western Carolina and we all know how good WCU is from hearing from the Gris fans! Truth be known, WCU is darn good. Does Campbell have one more steamer in the tank so we can say RICHMOND TO LOSE?

MVFC – More to come but lots of good teams but few good games this week.
• SDSU @ UND – Yes, the Alerus Center is a tough place to play. Just ask Coach Choate. That said, UND is sliding down the Red River to its source faster than you can say Indiana State. But what the heck, SDSU TO LOSE.

• Indiana State @ USD – Could the Sycamores stick like sycamores on defense two weeks in a row? Maybe, just maybe. USD TO LOSE

Southern (SoCon) – seems harder every week to see if someone wants to win the SoCon. Five teams with 1 or 2 losses but three of them are 5-4. Will be some more losers for sure.

• WCU @ ETSU – This is a playoff elimination game. Both teams are 5-4 and a 7-5 record is NOT going to get anyone into the bracket. Want ETSU to lose so NDSU’s SOS looks worse but want WCU to lose so Gris SOS looks worse. Hmm, so many choices – But because it helps the Cats the most, I’ll pick ETSU TO LOSE.

• Chattanooga @ The Citadel – The Citadel is 4-5 and Chat is only 5-4. Lose this one and Chattanooga is out of the playoffs leaving from for NAU to sneak in. CHAT TO LOSE.

Southland – No one seems to want to challenge UIW for the crown. SELA and SFA might try to make a run for an AT-Large bid.

• Lamar @ UIW – No questions taken – UIW TO LOSE

• SFA @ Texas A&M Commerce – SFA is making a season out of moving back to the Southland. They are 6-3 and play UIW next week. Maybe an upset here will motivate them to knock UIW off their pedestal – SFA TO LOSE.

UAC – In the wonderful world of UAC, no one wants to take control of the conference. Utah Tech was headed for FCS record of 0-12 when they stumbled atop of a UCA and sucked the life out of them. Not much for great news but we need somebody to lose – ACU, Tarleton State, SUU, or CA

• UCA @ EKU – Two in a row for EKU? That would be really wild odds but UCA TO LOSE

• ACU @ Austin Peay – This is going to be a difficult game for Abilene Christian and they could lose. A loss would severely hurt ACUs chance for a conference championship and even a top 16 seed. So ACU TO LOSE.

TOP OFFENSE/DEFENSE IN THE FCS

As expected, Cats maintain our #1 position on offense but take a hit on defense. This is partly due to USD having a bye and the whipping SDSU put on Murray State. Overall, Cats actually kept EWU below their offensive YPG average in Big Sky games by 50 yards (393 vs 445). The Cats offense was right on their average and just slightly less than Eastern has been giving up each game. Tougher opponents are, well, tougher.

Offense: The Cats actually improved their offensive aggregate score to 1.75. We are number 1 in scoring and total offense and 2nd in Rushing (slowing closing in on Davidson with the Triple Option) and #3 in passing efficiency. #2 remains NDSU with a score of 10.25 and USD is tied with the Gris at 14.25. We need to be aware that the Gris have a way better offense than Eastern and Eastern put up 28 points against us. It is possible The Brawl could be an offensive shoot out in the realms of 49-42.

Defense: As expected, we dropped slightly overall. We dropped from #1 last week to #3. We dropped to #20 in rushing defense and #8 in total defense. Again, part of that was USD had a bye so they gave up no yards. #1 is SDSU and #2 is South Dakota. # 5 is NDSU.

When we look at the combined offense/defense score, MSU is #1; USD #2; NDSU #3 and SDSU #4. Pretty much chalk with the top 4 teams in the polls and in the CAT-P. My semi-scientific method shows there is a pretty huge disparity between the top 5 teams and the rest of the FCS. Whether that is true on the field in a broader picture of games, we will see in the next three weeks and during the playoffs.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


CAT-P

Our aggregate poll is holding steady. The top 5 teams show a clear separation from the rest of the pack. Again, this week, USD is rated #4 in the CAT-P vs #5 in the Stats poll. The knowledgeable voters seem to think more highly of South Dakota than they do Davis. This may change this week with Davis playing at WaGris. Davis’s challenge in the Big Sky and non-conference games this year rates fairly low. Similar to the argument about the Cats. Davis has a Massey SOS of 36 compared to 40 for the Cats. Both teams have a similar other teams record of 22/25 – 47/48.

The middle tier is clearly rated lower than the top tier with 3.6 points separating #5 from #6. The main mover in this tier is Idaho moving to #8 from #10 in the Stats poll. This closely mirrors the committees’ ranking of Idaho at #7. Frankly, that still seems high to me based on the top-rated offenses and defenses. Idaho’s offense ranks as the second worst in the top 15 and unbelievably, their defense ranks low as well. It actually ranks as the worst defense in the Top 15 in our aggregate numbers. Sure seems like Idaho is nothing to write home about and I wonder if at 6-3, they are really a 7th ranked team in the FCS. The numbers just don’t support it – Jack Layne back or not.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


TOP FCS Teams by losses

The list of times with no FCS loss or only one FCS loss has shortened this week. It will make the playoff committee’s choices in the middle of the seeds very difficult as the teams bunch up.


• Zero Losses -1
o Cats

• Zero FCS Losses/One FBS Loss- 4
o NDSU
o UC Davis
o SEMO
o URI

• One FCS Loss Only - 1
o Mercer

• One FCS Loss and One FBS Loss - 6
o Richmond
o Tarleton State
o Villanova
o Stony Brook
o South Dakota
o SDSU

• Two FCS Losses highly ranked - 6
o Gris
o Idaho
o Illinois State
o UIW
o Abilene Christian
o Central Arkansas

TOP 8 SEED PREDICTIONS

To put together my top teams list, I took the Top 10 in the Stats poll which matches the committees Top 10 and throw in a couple of Wild Cards – URI and Richmond. I have created a table of each remaining game and what the results will be and what the committee will do. Of course, nothing of the sort will happen but it is fun to dream and to predict and adjust as the last four weeks play out. I have two charts. One is Predictive – what I think will happen in the next three weeks. The second is Preferred – what I would like to happen in the games in the next three weeks. Both of these are based on my observation and metrics as I see them and want to see them. I think the last 3 weeks of the season can go in many directions as there are so many key games.

Predicted Seeds/End of Season Games

In my predicted chart, I have NDSU winning out. NDSU has a bye this week and then plays MOST at home and travels to South Dakota. I believe this is the easiest schedule of the Top 5 teams. The Bison will not have issue with Missouri State at home. I also will state here that South Dakota is not a top 4 team. Currently, they have no quality wins and might end up with only 7 D-1 wins and 1 quasi quality win against UND (who may end the season at 5-7 taking the wind out of the Gris’ loss to UND). Winning out gives NDSU the #1 seed no matter what the Cats do.

I have Davis losing to the Gris and beating the Cats. Cats win the brawl. I have SDSU winning out and ending up 10-2. This combination of win-loss by these top teams will leave the committee in a difficult situation. Whoever gets 2-4 seed is going to be a guessing game. Does the committee give the #2 seed to Davis for beating the Cats and winning the autobid? Does SDSU get it with 9 D-1 wins but a close loss to NDSU? Do the Cats get the number 2 seed ahead of Davis even though Davis beat them?

My prediction is Davis – 2; Cats – 3 and SDSU-4. I think the D-1 wins; resume; # of losses, ranked wins would justify this seeding. After that, SEMO is #5 and then Gris at #6 based on quality wins and SOS over Mercer. But I think it is quite possible Mercer could get the #6 seed and Gris #7. Finally, the last seed goes to…UIW? That seems like a stretch but they will win out and the committee had them in the Top 10 at number 9. I don’t believe Idaho is really as good as advertised. Their offense is like 50th in my aggregate stats and their defense is not nearly as stout as every seems to think so. I think Idaho, USD and URI all get left out of a Top 8 Seed. I do think it is possible URI or Richmond could squeak into the #8 seed if either team wins out but I just don’t see it.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Preferred End of Season/Top 8 seeds.

So why not wish for the stars and put something together that would be ideal. Obviously, I have the Cats winning out. That is the base line for the preferred path. After that assumption, here is how it would play out.

First, NDSU loses to USD in the final game. This moves NDSU off the #1 seed.

Next, SDSU still wins out and ending at 10-2. This gives them the #3 seed even though they only have 9 D-1 wins.

The real difficulty is what to do with the Gris-Davis game. Part of me wants the Gris to win so that Davis can be cast as beatable when Cats play them. But then I come around to my senses and realize we want to Gris to lose to Davis and then Cats beat Davis. This drops Gris out of the seeding discussion in my opinion and puts them at 10-11 seed. Davis with only 1 loss would likely get the 4th seed. In this scenario, we get a rematch at home against Davis in the semi-finals which is as best as we can hope for. I believe it best to avoid Gris and both DSUs in the semi-finals.

As far as the remaining seeds, I still want to see Idaho lose one game as well as USD lose to UND and NDSUS. This would result in SEMO, Mercer, URI and UIW getting the last four seeds with URI at the #8 seed. This would give the Cats a game against URI and then Davis. An ideal scenario, I think.



BIG SKY Playoff Predictions and Games

This week my record was 5-0. I even picked the PSU upset over Sac State as well as the Caulk games. My record is now 24-7 or 77% picking the winner. I take that. Expect it to get worse next week but hey that is what I said last week.


Playoff Status for the Big Sky

A quick look this week since there were only three games last week. 8 wins is a lock. 7 D-1 wins minimum. More detail next week after a full slate of games.

LOCK (2)

Cats and Davis have eight D-1 wins and some company now in the lock category – SEMO: NDSU

SHOULD BE IN (2)

1) Gris – 7 D1 wins. No easy games coming up but should win at least PSU game?
2) Idaho – 6 D1 wins. Need two more wins but play ISU, Weber, and PSU

SLIM (0)

ALMOST ZERO – Must Win Out (1)

NAU is hanging on with a thread. Sure, they beat Weber. But even if they win out, they will be 8-4 but they will only have 7 D-1 wins because they played a NAIA team. I still believe there will be enough 8 D-1 win teams to choose from. NAU’s best bet is for the CAA to continue to beat itself up. Right now, the CAA could have 6 or 7 teams with 8 D-1 wins. At this point. Love to see 4 or 5 CAA teams in the playoffs so there are some easy games for Big Sky/MVFC teams to beat up on.

OUT (7)

Sac State and Weber join the bottom putting 7 Big Sky teams out of the running for the playoffs. Big Sky parity is a mixed bag. Too many in the middle showing no consistency. Still looks like no more than 5 teams with a winning record. And it could be just four.




BIG SKY GAMES PREDICTION

Eastern @ UNC – I think Eastern is middle of the pack – not back of the pack. They will play strong to the end and shred UNC with their run game and Efton Chisolm. UNC TO LOSE by 20.

Idaho State @ Weber – Which Weber will show up? The one that beat the Gris? Or the one that got destroyed by NAU last week? I think Weber has given up. They need to rebuild. Idaho State is showing some Moxie, although not a lot. But enough for us to say WEBER TO LOSE by 10.

Idaho @ Portland State – So who is the PSU quarterback? This guy who last week laid on 5 TDs and over 400 yards of offense on Sac State? The guy who against MSU at home the week before has 68 yards of offense and 1 end of game touchdown pass? National player of the week one week; 68 anemic yards the next; 400 yards and Big Sky player of the week. C’mon! What is this? Maybe Chachere shows up big against Idaho. I am inclined to call for an upset but Chachere only plays big on the road. So, I have IDAHO to WIN by 14.

NAU @ Cal Poly – NAU needs this win to keep their faint playoff hopes alive and they will get it. NAU to WIN by 20.

UC Davis @ Gris – As I said earlier, this is a tough call. There are good reasons to pick either team to win or to hope either team wins. Both teams have excellent offensives churning out 450 yards a game. Their defenses held opponents to 250 YPG. The questions about each team’s challenges are pretty clear.
• Can the Griz stop Miles Hastings and the prolific passing attack? Davis is the #1 passing offense in the league at 325 per game. Hastings has many receivers including All-American Larison. Gris pass defense is their weak link. They will have to step up to avoid a 52-49 shootout.
• Can UC Davis provide enough stops on defense, particularly against the run duo of Ostmo and Gillman? And keep Bergen out of the end zone on kick-off and punt returns.

I have not seen a betting line and I would be a fool to put much on this game. I will say that if Davis can handle the WaGris crowd and spread the ball around the field, they could win. Davis comes out a winner will surely indicate the Cats will have their hands full next week at Davis. But I am not sure Davis is as good as their record. And as much as it pains me to say it, I think the Gris are improving and their defense will be difficult for any opponent the next three weeks. Gris 34 – Davis 27.


Cats vs Sac State

I called last week’s game as much tougher than any other Big Sky game and even called the number of points Eastern would score (28). Beginners luck but you could see the pattern in Eastern’s performances. Never out of it. With Sac State, we have no such pattern. They hang with two FBS games for at least 3 quarters and crush a decent Nicholls team. Sac puts up points most weeks but can’t seem to keep from the opponents running up the score. Shades of Eastern without the intensity.

Sac State has a decent offense heavily reliant on the Pass (60-40). Conklin can keep receivers active all game. This will give the Cats secondary a real challenge. Without Danny U, the linebacker core is certainly not as strong.

The game will come down to who can stop whom from scoring. The Sac state defense is middle of the road but seems to have gotten worse. If we only look at the last five Big Sky games, Sac State is giving up 460 yards of offense and over 200 yards rushing. If there is no breakdown on the O-line and the Cats truly take a 1-0 mentality, the game will start slow but the Cats will prevail. However, I cannot see anything like 406sports writers have Cats socre 52,56 or 62. This won’t happen because we seem to start slow; Sac is not that bad and Vigen always calls off the dogs. Look for something more like the PSU Game – CATS 44 - Sad Sac 17.

GO CATS!

[Catprint]

WEEK 12 – BRACKETOLOGY; TOP SEEDS, BIG SKY GAMES

I am hopeful my late post finds some readers who are trying to pass the time Saturday morning and afternoon waiting for the night game. I simply could not find the time and energy to put all this together earlier in the week. Hope there is something of interest in my seeds and brackets. Call me a fool but do it online with your opinions please!

Who Lost?

Quite a week as we got quite a few losses to throw the seeding into disarray – particularly for seeds 9-16. A quick review:
Big South/OVC
• SEMO @ Lindenwood –SEMO TO LOSE. GOT IT. Semo had not lost to an FCS team then lost to Lindenwood, 204th rated by Sagarin

CAA
• UAlbany @ Stony Brook - STONY BROOK TO LOSE. MISSED IT
• URI @ Delaware URI TO LOSE. GOT IT. Another undefeated team against the FCS goes down in flames.
• Richmond @ Campbell RICHMOND TO LOSE? MISSED IT

MVFC –
• SDSU @ UND – SDSU TO LOSE. MISSED IT
• Indiana State @ USD –USD TO LOSE. MISSED IT

Southern (SoCon) –
• WCU @ ETSU –ETSU TO LOSE. MISSED IT. Hurts the Gris Resume.
• Chattanooga @ The Citadel –CHAT TO LOSE. MISSED IT

Southland –
• Lamar @ UIW – No questions taken – UIW TO LOSE. NOPE
• SFA @ Texas A&M Commerce – SFA TO LOSE. NOPE
UAC –
• UCA @ EKU –UCA TO LOSE. GOT IT. UCA may miss the playoffs after being in the Top 10.
• ACU @ Austin Peay –ACU TO LOSE. MISSED IT

WHO WE WANT TO LOSE THIS WEEK?

At this point, I am rooting for upsets so that in the scenario Cats lose to UC Davis, we still stay near the Top 4 seeds. More on this in the seed’s discussion

Big South
• Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin – UTM has a chance to win its last two and potentially be in the discussion for a top 8 or top 12 seed at 9-3 so UTM TO LOSE.

CAA
• Richmond @ Hampton – Trap Game? Could RICHMOND LOSE?
• Villanova @ Monmouth – This could happen. Nova’s offense is offensive and they can’t seem to get it together. Monmouth is trying to finish strong. NOVA TO LOSE
• Stony Brook @ UNH – Hmm, not sure who to pick in this one. Both teams are in the hunt. But Stony Brook is surging. Can you believe it – last year 0-10 and crushed in 9 of those – to 8-2 with two winnable games left. STONY TO LOSE
• UAlbany @ URI – Simple- URI TO LOSE

MVFC
• USD @ UND – Want UND to lose so Gris’s lose looks even worse. Want USD to lose so there is weaker TOP 4 competition. But always side with making the Gris look bad. UND TO LOSE.
• SIU @ SDSU – Not much chance but hey, SIU had the biggest comeback in school history last week. SDSU TO LOSE
• Mo State @ NDSU – I once found a four-leaf clover, bet on straight fours, and won the Powerbal.....NOT. More likely than MOST beating NDSU but still NDSU TO LOSE.

SOUTHERN
• Furman @ ETSU – ETSU loses they are out of the playoffs and NDSU’s miracle win suddenly has less “quality” to it. ETSU TO LOSE.
• VMI @ Western Carolina – See item above on USD vs UND. Re: Gris look bad. WCU TO LOSE.

SOUTHLAND
• UIW @ SFA – Still burns in my throat when I think of SFA stiffing the Cats. Still, I would rather see UIW lose and not get a top 8 seed. I just don’t want to face their passing attack although I can see the Cats running up the score in a potential matchup. UIW TO LOSE
UAC (The UnAbleConference – no one wants to the ring)
• EKU @ Austin Peay – I like the underdogs so AUSTIN PEAY to LOSE.

• SUU @ UCA – Simple – UCA was everyone’s darling. Oh, no one wants to meet this team in the playoffs but how about that – No one will since they have played themselves right out of the playoffs. UCA to LOSE

• ACU @ Tarleton State – I don’t like Texas but these teams are both from Texas. I think Tarleton State thinks of themselves as hot shot newcomers who will own the FCS. TARLETON TO LOSE.

TOP OFFENSE/DEFENSE IN THE FCS

The Cats continue to shine in my combined stats on both sides of the ball. On offense, we continue to be the best offense in all of FCS regardless of whether I only include Top 15 teams or ALL FCS teams. As the number one team in scoring, rushing and total offense, we are at the top by a significant margin. Cats are number 3 in offensive pass efficiency and this gives us an aggregate score of 6 which is only 2 points from a perfect 4. Our 1.50 average is the best of any team since week 5 when there were enough data points to track. Does this mean we can’t be stopped? No, not really. It just depends on the day and the matchup and how the wind blows. I know when hubris takes over and we all say “NO one can stop our run game (like most of us did in 2022), we can be proven wrong.

On defense, we continue to be strong but not the best the last two weeks. This week we are number 3 after USD and SDSU with number 4 being NDSU. You can see the MVFC defensive bias in these numbers. Our rating of 12.75 is still good and far superior to Idaho’s (58.50), UC Davis (43.75) and Gris (52.25). You can see in the ratings that both the Cats and UC Davis are good at stopping the rush but the Cats total defense is 9th in the FCS compared to 47th for UC Davis. Again, stats are stats and I don’t see it means we will stop Davis in their tracks (or even the Gris the following week). As expected, the Cats aggregate score is the best in the country although USD is a remarkably close second. Guess we will see how these numbers hold up after this week and next.




Bracketology, Auto bids and At-Large teams

I promised a bracket this week and even though midnight on Friday, I did not want to fail. This year, I am taking a different approach until Saturday night before selection Sunday. My charts here outline the playoffs in a different fashion than most brackets. Follow along.



AutoBids



The only auto bid determined is Mercer for the Southland. The rest of my predictions are based on current records and the remaining games. Breaking it down further, the three unseeded conferences (Patriot, Pioneer, NEC) are all currently not secured by any team but whatever team gets the auto bid will simply replace my prediction. These conferences are all guaranteed only one-bid.

In the Big Sky, MVFC and CAA, the number of almost guaranteed bids is four and this includes all of the teams who might win the auto bid. So, while the auto bid could change, it won’t change which teams get in of the four in any of these conferences.

This leaves three conferences where the auto bid might result in another team left out of the playoffs. First, in the Big South, SEMO and UT-Martin are the leaders but Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State technically are in the running and there are scenarios where there could be a four-way tie. The best the Big South will do is get 2 bids but come hell or high water not sure how anyone could guess who they will be after SEMO’s dismal loss to Lindenwood.

Next, the Southland is almost assured of having UIW as the auto bid. Yes, SELA and SFA (the darlings of the football “SSS” acronyms both have a chance. It is a safe bet UIW will be king and maybe one other team gets in.

Finally, the UAC is almost as much of a mess as the CAA. At this point two teams are in the driver’s seat – Abilene Christian and Tarleton State. But Southern Utah and Eastern Kentucky both could tie for the conference title. Not really sure who will win this but I am predicting Tarleton State. Only think one other team gets in from the UAC.

Top 8 Seeds


I have been tracking top teams for a couple of weeks.
I believe 6 of the top 8 seeds are locked in baring some sort of monumental collapse by one of these teams. I see NDSU, MSU, SDSU, UC Davis, Mercer and USD have a clear path to a Top 8 seed. Sure, there will be some losses due to head-to-head games. But a 10-2 Davis team or a 10-2 NDSU team and so on are not going to drop out of the Top 8. I will admit the wild card is South Dakota who could lose their last two games and drop out. However, I expect the Yotes to manage UND and then be competitive at NDSU. IF so, their 8-3 record with FCS losses to only two of the top three FCS teams will be thought of strongly.

This leaves only 2 spots open for competition. Various podcasts and brackets have only a handful of teams that could fill the final two spots. They are UIW, Idaho, SEMO, Richmond, Villanova, Tarleton State and Gris. I can pretty much guarantee a couple of things, First, SEMO and Tarleton State will not get in due to their recent poor losses. Second, the committee has tied their hands by including Idaho and Incarnate Word in their first and only Top 10 Release. Both Idaho and UIW seem destined to win out since the release. It would defy logic to drop them out of the Top 8 after their initial inclusion and all they do is handle business and win.

So, in my mind, the Top 8 is pretty cut and tried unless A) South Dakota suffers two losses or B) Idaho or UIW loses one of their next two games which of course is possible but not likely.

However, the order of the seeds is totally up in the air and I will provide some insight in my next section on TOP FOUR SEEDS.



Bottom 8 Seeds


The next 8 seeds and a first-round home game is much more of a crap shoot. The huge tie up in the CAA makes it difficult for the committee to evaluate the strength of the top teams because for the most part they don’t play each other. At this point, my projections are mostly an educated guess. Some of the selections such as Richmond, Tarleton State, Nova and Illinois State appear to be a reasonable. My other four selections: SEMO, Gris, URI and ACU; are all a higher degree of risk. Not much can be said about these teams other than they likely will be in.

At-Large Bubble Teams



Finally, the bubble teams and what a bubble it is! It would make Joe Bazooka smile with pride at its size. I have 13 teams on the bubble competing for only 5 spots. This means 8 teams are going to be left out. I would hate to be on the committee and make the choice. At this point, I don’t have the time, energy, or insight to pick the bubble. So, what I have done is put the teams in three groups – High, Medium, Low. This is my hedge about who might get in.

High: In this group is UT Martin, Chattanooga and ETSU. I think with their remaining schedules and combination of ranked or quality wins, each of these teams has a strong chance of making the bracket. More to be said after this week.

Medium: Composed of NAU, W&M, SELA, EKU, and Southern Utah; these teams are on the edge. Some like NAU lack quality wins but have a strong SOS. Others like SUU would have a couple of quality wins and close losses to ranked teams. But it is a crap shoot. I will update after this week’s games. Only two of these five teams would make the bracket if my first group all make the playoffs.

Low: The four teams in this group are UNH, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State and UCA. These teams all need to low SOS; few if any quality wins and need to win out to be considered. Some of them nosedived like UCA. I don’t see any of these teams getting into the bracket without a huge combination of losses by other bubble teams.

TOP FOUR SEEDS

This topic has been beaten to death in the various podcasts and FCS websites. I am only concerned about teams that could get a top 4 seed in my opinion. So, I am presenting a number of scenarios here that involve only 5 teams – NDSU, SDSU, MSU, Davis and USD. I think the odds are 4 of these 5 teams will secure the top 4 seeds. So, I look at win out and 1 loss options from MSU’s standpoint. I will discuss some of the reasoning. But first, could other teams make the final four? Surely, it is possible but unlikely. At this point, I am making some assumptions about these teams and the teams close to a top 4 seed. First, I really don’t see any of these five teams losing their next two games. Second, with MSU @ UC Davis and USD @ NDSU in the next two weeks, 2 of the teams will pick up a loss. However, I don’t see either losing team dropping more than a spot or two in the polls due to D-1 wins, SOS and ranking. Finally, there just aren’t very many other teams with the D-1 wins and the SOS to replace one of these five teams as a Top 4 seed. Mercer and Idaho look like the most likely if there are huge stumbles by at least 2 of my Top 5 teams. For now, I will call it a long shot.

So here are my various scenarios. Take your pick. I think the seeds are pretty darn close based on the results of the top 3 teams over the next three weeks.





BIG SKY PREDICTIONS

Last week I went 4-2 so 28-9 for a 76% prediction rate. Still should have bet. Two more weeks to go. Quick run down

• Weber @ Idaho – Sure would like to see an upset but just not going to happen. Idaho is looking to go undefeated at home for the first time in a billion years. Weber looks like a train wreck on top of a shipwreck. But another one of the Gris’s defeats that is not holding up well. Both the UND and Weber losses are going to drag down the Gris SOS and quality losses. But back to Weber. I don’t think Idaho is all that great but Weber is worse. IDAHO to WIN
• NAU @ UNC – A battle of the Northerns. I think NAU will take it to the house. Keeps them in the race for a Bubble Bracket Buster. Still low chance due to only 7 D1 wins possible NAU TO WIN.
• Sac State @ Cal Poly – Someone will have to win this game. Both teams only have 1 BSC victory. I am not sure either team is capable of a win but I will go with SAC TO WIN.
• ISU @ EWU – Boy, I thought ISU would win maybe 1 or 2 games but they are 3-3 and could give Eastern a challenge. But ultimately, Eastern has some offense and the red turf is just too scary – EWU to WIN.
• PSU @ Gris – A number of FCS podcasts expressed concern that PSU could trip up the Gris. Chachere is the greatest, very explosive, no one can stop him… Except when the Cats gave up 6 yards rushing and 65 yards passing to Unstoppable Chachere. I think the Gris handle it at home BUT if they don’t, they are toast. GRIS TO WIN.



CATS vs DAVIS

I write this after midnight on Friday. Listened to 5 different podcasts, read a dozen or so articles, talked to numerous people; did a deep mediation with the Yoga Master to try to get a read on this.

• Lots of people talk about Davis being a great running team. But they only average 144 yards per game and are 73rd in the country. I think people think of Larison and just assume Davis is a great running team. They are not.
• Cats are #1 rushing in the FCS at 333 YPG; Davis is #22 rushing defense giving up only 118 YPG. Something is going to give. Davis did a pretty darn decent job stopping the Gris run game. But most think Davis can slow us but not stop us. The key is whether they can slow us enough.
• Hastings is good and the Aggies depend on a significant passing game – dinging down the field with 5, 10, 15 years per catch. There has to be pressure and there has to be more than an occasional stop. Passes to Larison are essentially like a run so the stats are a little deceiving when the running back is the leading receiver.
• Cats overall defense is better than last year but secondary is still the weak point. We can stop the run but Davis doesn’t rely on the run much. However, playing too many deep might give Larison a chance to have a banner day on the ground.
• How much will Tommy pass and how much will the coaches let him run? I would not be surprised if the first series we pass more than 50% of the time no matter the length of the drive.
• Tommy has to play one of his better games
• The Defense for each side will likely be the key.
• Crowds are not often an issue at Davis but it might be Saturday. They could have 12,000 to 15,000 there. It might be a minor factor.
• Cats have not trailed for 36 quarters. That is clearly some sort of record. But we could trail to Davis; still keep our cool and come out on top.
• In matchups of this magnitude, I am always nervous. I just think there are so many ways to lose and the Cats have just not matched up well with NDSU, SDSU in the last many years. But I do recognize the Cats are good this year and well rounded. We won’t play mistake free ball but we can play at the top of our game and not panic no matter the moment.
• A loss while very sad, will still likely keep us in the Top 4 for 2 home games. and who knows what else will happen.

Go Cats

[Joe Bobcat]

Thanks for all that work Catprint. It's very informative and puts so much information together that is clear and concise.

Concerning the crowd, I hope there is a full house and that somewhere near 3000 are Cat fans. That many Cat fans in a crowd of 15000 would most likely tip the noise factor in favor of the Cats.

[Long Time Cat]

Great write up. I don’t always read the entire thing but did this morning. I too am nervous about today’s game and haven’t really been nervous since UNM. One correction that could help the Cats is that NDSU is @ USD for the final game.

[Long Time Cat]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

[Joe Bobcat]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

[MSU01]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

I agree. There's always a chance that MSU could move up to #1 with two blowout wins this week and next, but I think ultimately the committee has already told us what they're going to do if NDSU and MSU both win out. Maybe if SDSU loses one of its last two games that could move the needle a tiny bit by making NDSU's win over them appear a little less impressive than it did at the time. I doubt it though.

[catatac]

Great write up, but I don't understand how anyone can call our secondary weak. Our secondary is damn good. Even with Dowler out for the season, we are damn solid back there... and we have some good depth. Not sure which of our starting corners, safeties, or nickel you could call weak.

[BleedingBLue]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

I agree. There's always a chance that MSU could move up to #1 with two blowout wins this week and next, but I think ultimately the committee has already told us what they're going to do if NDSU and MSU both win out. Maybe if SDSU loses one of its last two games that could move the needle a tiny bit by making NDSU's win over them appear a little less impressive than it did at the time. I doubt it though.

I disagree the commitee has already told us what they're going to do. Those rankings were based on what had been done to that point. The Cats SOS will have improved by 25+ from then to the end of season. Not to mention the Cats had 1 ranked win at that time. The committee wasn't projecting, they were ranking based on the season so far. Would NDSU be #1 if both of us win out? Probably, but I don't think it's a given.

[catatac]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

I agree. There's always a chance that MSU could move up to #1 with two blowout wins this week and next, but I think ultimately the committee has already told us what they're going to do if NDSU and MSU both win out. Maybe if SDSU loses one of its last two games that could move the needle a tiny bit by making NDSU's win over them appear a little less impressive than it did at the time. I doubt it though.

I disagree the commitee has already told us what they're going to do. Those rankings were based on what had been done to that point. The Cats SOS will have improved by 25+ from then to the end of season. Not to mention the Cats had 1 ranked win at that time. The committee wasn't projecting, they were ranking based on the season so far. Would NDSU be #1 if both of us win out? Probably, but I don't think it's a given.

Yep. On a related topic, does anyone on here still think the Cats could possibly end up seeded worse than #2 if they win out?

[onceacat]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

I agree. There's always a chance that MSU could move up to #1 with two blowout wins this week and next, but I think ultimately the committee has already told us what they're going to do if NDSU and MSU both win out. Maybe if SDSU loses one of its last two games that could move the needle a tiny bit by making NDSU's win over them appear a little less impressive than it did at the time. I doubt it though.

I disagree the commitee has already told us what they're going to do. Those rankings were based on what had been done to that point. The Cats SOS will have improved by 25+ from then to the end of season. Not to mention the Cats had 1 ranked win at that time. The committee wasn't projecting, they were ranking based on the season so far. Would NDSU be #1 if both of us win out? Probably, but I don't think it's a given.

Even if NDSU only wins in close games, both MoState & USD are Top 5 or 6 teams. That means NDSU would have 3 (!) top 5 wins. I have a hard time seeing how MSU would jump NDSU given only one (maybe 2) Top 10 wins.

[BleedingBLue]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

I agree. There's always a chance that MSU could move up to #1 with two blowout wins this week and next, but I think ultimately the committee has already told us what they're going to do if NDSU and MSU both win out. Maybe if SDSU loses one of its last two games that could move the needle a tiny bit by making NDSU's win over them appear a little less impressive than it did at the time. I doubt it though.

I disagree the commitee has already told us what they're going to do. Those rankings were based on what had been done to that point. The Cats SOS will have improved by 25+ from then to the end of season. Not to mention the Cats had 1 ranked win at that time. The committee wasn't projecting, they were ranking based on the season so far. Would NDSU be #1 if both of us win out? Probably, but I don't think it's a given.

Even if NDSU only wins in close games, both MoState & USD are Top 5 or 6 teams. That means NDSU would have 3 (!) top 5 wins. I have a hard time seeing how MSU would jump NDSU given only one (maybe 2) Top 10 wins.

I don't see it happening, just saying I don't think it's a given. A BSC team going 12-0 with an FBS would be pretty remarkable.

[MSU01]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

I agree. There's always a chance that MSU could move up to #1 with two blowout wins this week and next, but I think ultimately the committee has already told us what they're going to do if NDSU and MSU both win out. Maybe if SDSU loses one of its last two games that could move the needle a tiny bit by making NDSU's win over them appear a little less impressive than it did at the time. I doubt it though.

I disagree the commitee has already told us what they're going to do. Those rankings were based on what had been done to that point. The Cats SOS will have improved by 25+ from then to the end of season. Not to mention the Cats had 1 ranked win at that time. The committee wasn't projecting, they were ranking based on the season so far. Would NDSU be #1 if both of us win out? Probably, but I don't think it's a given.

Even if NDSU only wins in close games, both MoState & USD are Top 5 or 6 teams. That means NDSU would have 3 (!) top 5 wins. I have a hard time seeing how MSU would jump NDSU given only one (maybe 2) Top 10 wins.

I don't see it happening, just saying I don't think it's a given. A BSC team going 12-0 with an FBS would be pretty remarkable.

I don't think anyone has said it's a given. There's always a chance the committee will change its minds, but there appears to be disagreement about how likely that is to happen. Anyway, NDSU appears to be on their way to blowing out Mo State so that part of the initial scenario probably won't happen.

[Catprint]

One question for you since you have a better grasp on this than most. If NDSU struggles but has close wins against MoSU and USD and the Cats roll with 2+ score wins in their final two games. Do you think there’s a realistic chance we jump them for the 1 seed?

I know your ? wasn't to me and I hope Catprint will chime in with a more educated and complete answer. I think the scenario you've given would've made a significant difference in final ranking from the committee last year, but this year it sounds like there's different weight given to other metrics and I have my doubts that your scenario will move the Cats to #1 seed.

I think the Cats only have control over being one of the top 2 teams and no lower. Home field though the semis is good enough.

I agree. There's always a chance that MSU could move up to #1 with two blowout wins this week and next, but I think ultimately the committee has already told us what they're going to do if NDSU and MSU both win out. Maybe if SDSU loses one of its last two games that could move the needle a tiny bit by making NDSU's win over them appear a little less impressive than it did at the time. I doubt it though.

I disagree the commitee has already told us what they're going to do. Those rankings were based on what had been done to that point. The Cats SOS will have improved by 25+ from then to the end of season. Not to mention the Cats had 1 ranked win at that time. The committee wasn't projecting, they were ranking based on the season so far. Would NDSU be #1 if both of us win out? Probably, but I don't think it's a given.

Even if NDSU only wins in close games, both MoState & USD are Top 5 or 6 teams. That means NDSU would have 3 (!) top 5 wins. I have a hard time seeing how MSU would jump NDSU given only one (maybe 2) Top 10 wins.

I don't see it happening, just saying I don't think it's a given. A BSC team going 12-0 with an FBS would be pretty remarkable.

I don't think anyone has said it's a given. There's always a chance the committee will change its minds, but there appears to be disagreement about how likely that is to happen. Anyway, NDSU appears to be on their way to blowing out Mo State so that part of the initial scenario probably won't happen.

Up till 2 with the post. Then up at 7 with three grandchildren all morning! Tough to get online. Some comments.

1) I will revise my comment about our secondary. It is not weak per se. It is the weaker aspect of our defense. That said, we are ranked #15 in passing yards allowed and #10 in Passing Efficiency Defense. That is pretty darn good. I guess I am still channeling last years team.

2) The Committees' ranking was indeed based on "IF the season ended then". So what most of the podcasters say is that if a team wins out, it is unlikely to drop from its position.

3) IF MSU wins out, we should have THREE (3) ranked wins; all of them Top 10 wins (Idaho, UC Davis, UM - assuming Gris don't lose today). NDSU would have FIVE ranked wins and TWO(2) Top 10 ranked wins (SDSU, USD - Mo State is 14th in coaches poll). The overall Future SOS is much higher for NDSU (3) vs MSU (22)

4) However, I agree with @BleedingBLue that a 12-0 team with an FBS win and dominating wins against all FCS teams would be hard to overlook. I think it is possible we could move up to number 1 but not very likely without a loss by NDSU.

5) Most of my effort is concerned with where other teams such as SDSU and USD end up and where the Cats might end up if we lose a game. It is a given that if we win out, the #2 seed is the lowest option.

[BleedingBLue]

I know we all like watching the Griz lose. But, IF we win Cat/Griz next week, there will be one team in the FCS who is 12-0, with THREE currently top 10 wins. That team will also have an FBS win. SOS, KPI, what the hell ever be damned, that team should be #1. I will argue until I'm blue in the face the Cats should be #1 in that case.

[MinnesotaBobcat]

I know we all like watching the Griz lose. But, IF we win Cat/Griz next week, there will be one team in the FCS who is 12-0, with THREE currently top 10 wins. That team will also have an FBS win. SOS, KPI, what the hell ever be damned, that team should be #1. I will argue until I'm blue in the face the Cats should be #1 in that case.

New Mexico just knocked off Washington State….so that win looks a bit better.

I agree that the Bobcats should be number 1, but we had a better resume than the Bison in 2022 and they still seeded them 3 and the Cats 4. Valley teams always get the benefit of the doubt.

[MSU01]

Looks like it's going to be just like 2022 and 2023 with two MVFC teams and two Big Sky teams making up the top 4 seeds. And just like in both of those years I fully expect the committee to set up a bracket for two potential MVFC vs Big Sky semifinals if the higher seeds all win. I'm more interested in who MSU will draw in the second round and quarterfinals as I think it's a near lock that they'll get SDSU or NDSU in the semis.