The Realignment Options from the Pac-6 and Mountain West Perspective.

[Prodigal Cat]

Welcome to your new Big Sky Conference Nevada, Wyoming, and UNM. (kicks UNC, PSU and Cal Poly out the back door)

[BelgradeBobcat]

Mountain West Conference on life support! They could be toast. With Utah State jumping and UNLV maybe jumping (very fluid), it leaves only 5 full members: Air Force (which still could go to AAC); Nevada, New Mexico; San Jose State and Wyoming. Hawaii makes six football members but MWC needs at least 3 more members to be an NCAA recognized conference. Gloria played her hand; thought she had it "straight" but she was "flushed" out by the cagey Pac-12.

What is a card player to do? Gloria needs at at 3 more face cards and maybe 4 or 6 to have a "Full House"

AAC - All the good teams are off the table as they turned down Pac-12 invites. Invite some of the dregs - North Texas; Tulsa; UAB?

MAC - No go.

Sun Belt - Would any team leave? For less money and longer travel. Not a chance in my opinion. Maybe Texas State and Arkansas State? But huge long shot

What is Left? Four Options

1. Conference USA draw- UTEP, New Mexico State, Sam Houston. Texas teams with some followings but all very poor football AND basketball programs. If they do this, the MWC might compete with the MAC as the most irrelevant FBS conference in the future (The Rockets Zip by like a Golden Flash to soar like a Redhawk.... bet you can't name those teams without a dance card!)

2. FCS Pickup - MSU, UM, SDSU, NDSU. As proposed before, take the best from the FCS. Keep Regional. Have high-quality teams. Could also make a play for Sac State or UC Davis instead.

3. Know when to fold them - Disband and let the free spirits try to find a landing place. Not likely but what does the MWC have to offer? Playing in the cold? No Media contract after 2025? Only the worst teams from prior glory

4. Get Lucky - Hold em - Maybe UNLV and Airforce stay. Leaving both Pac-12 and MWC at 7 (6 full members at MWC). So they each need at least one. If this plays out, looks like the Pac-12 is being stilted at the altar. Poetic justice if they can't get to 8 or only get there with Conference USA castaways and then get a crappy TV deal - like $5 million a year. Now wouldn't that be something. MWC teams jump for LESS money than they are getting now.

I think it will be option one. The MWC could also grab a couple of basketball schools to shore that up-gotta protect that auto bid. Utah Valley, Grand Canyon, Cal Baptist come to my mind. UNLV might just like the idea of being the big dog in a smaller MWC. They already host the basketball tournament so an easier route to the NCAA's, and football winning seasons for a bowl game.

[coloradocat]

Mountain West Conference on life support! They could be toast. With Utah State jumping and UNLV maybe jumping (very fluid), it leaves only 5 full members: Air Force (which still could go to AAC); Nevada, New Mexico; San Jose State and Wyoming. Hawaii makes six football members but MWC needs at least 3 more members to be an NCAA recognized conference. Gloria played her hand; thought she had it "straight" but she was "flushed" out by the cagey Pac-12.

What is a card player to do? Gloria needs at at 3 more face cards and maybe 4 or 6 to have a "Full House"

AAC - All the good teams are off the table as they turned down Pac-12 invites. Invite some of the dregs - North Texas; Tulsa; UAB?

MAC - No go.

Sun Belt - Would any team leave? For less money and longer travel. Not a chance in my opinion. Maybe Texas State and Arkansas State? But huge long shot

What is Left? Four Options

1. Conference USA draw- UTEP, New Mexico State, Sam Houston. Texas teams with some followings but all very poor football AND basketball programs. If they do this, the MWC might compete with the MAC as the most irrelevant FBS conference in the future (The Rockets Zip by like a Golden Flash to soar like a Redhawk.... bet you can't name those teams without a dance card!)

2. FCS Pickup - MSU, UM, SDSU, NDSU. As proposed before, take the best from the FCS. Keep Regional. Have high-quality teams. Could also make a play for Sac State or UC Davis instead.

3. Know when to fold them - Disband and let the free spirits try to find a landing place. Not likely but what does the MWC have to offer? Playing in the cold? No Media contract after 2025? Only the worst teams from prior glory

4. Get Lucky - Hold em - Maybe UNLV and Airforce stay. Leaving both Pac-12 and MWC at 7 (6 full members at MWC). So they each need at least one. If this plays out, looks like the Pac-12 is being stilted at the altar. Poetic justice if they can't get to 8 or only get there with Conference USA castaways and then get a crappy TV deal - like $5 million a year. Now wouldn't that be something. MWC teams jump for LESS money than they are getting now.

I think it will be option one. The MWC could also grab a couple of basketball schools to shore that up-gotta protect that auto bid. Utah Valley, Grand Canyon, Cal Baptist come to my mind. UNLV might just like the idea of being the big dog in a smaller MWC. They already host the basketball tournament so an easier route to the NCAA's, and football winning seasons for a bowl game.

I agree that option one is most likely. I'd order it 1, 4, 2, 3.

I don't think the MWC wants to add any FCS teams unless they have to in order to continue existing. The teams that would make sense to add would probably own the conference in less than a recruiting cycle while also bringing in less tv money. The only reason to add these teams is if the alternative is to disband and crawl over to the PAC/CUSA/AAC for peanuts.

[cats2506]

Have to imagine UNLV and Utah State, maybe Nevada are the next choices for the Pac 6-12. Possibly San Jose State, but not too sure about that one. No desirable teams for the MWC with teams from the AAC clearing wanting to stay. So does the MWC try to add UNM, UTEP and the top FCS schools? Does the MWC and C-USA become one?

They may be SoL if they want another MWC team.

Doesn't necessarily mean they will all re-up though. If you could get 5-10 million more per year in TV revenue and the Pac 6-12 pays your exit fee, why wouldn't you do it? Especially schools like UNLV, UNR, and USU who would benefit for basketball as well.

Exit fee is something like 25 million, Pac is only offering 2.5 million to offset it.

It's 18 million from the MWC I thought I read last week. The Pac is paying that for the 4 MWC already coming over. Seems kind of odd they didn't pony up for schools they really want. I figured they may do it to entice a few more MWC schools since plan A fell through.

Was talking about the ACC temas Memphis, Tulane & USF that declined the PAC invite.

[cats2506]

Have to imagine UNLV and Utah State, maybe Nevada are the next choices for the Pac 6-12. Possibly San Jose State, but not too sure about that one. No desirable teams for the MWC with teams from the AAC clearing wanting to stay. So does the MWC try to add UNM, UTEP and the top FCS schools? Does the MWC and C-USA become one?

They may be SoL if they want another MWC team.

Doesn't necessarily mean they will all re-up though. If you could get 5-10 million more per year in TV revenue and the Pac 6-12 pays your exit fee, why wouldn't you do it? Especially schools like UNLV, UNR, and USU who would benefit for basketball as well.

Exit fee is something like 25 million, Pac is only offering 2.5 million to offset it.

Exit fee for the Mountain West is $18 million. And the MW is working hard to keep their members by paying out money to keep them. Interesting strategy that could keep the conference alive.

https://nevadasportsnet.com/newsletter- ... p-together#

Was talking about the ACC teams that declined the PAC invite

[Cataholic]

Just thinking about these schools that are leaving the G5 to join a P5 conference. If your ultimate goal is to compete for a national championship, which is better: 1. Join a P5 and making the playoffs by navigating a brutal schedule, or 2. Stay in a G5 and run the table with a manageable schedule and get the bid to the playoff? As an example, UNLV (who would have ever imagined it possible) could go undefeated. The highest ranked G5 school right now is Boise State, who UNLV plays later this year. UNLV could get into the playoff as the G5 entry. I don’t think there is any chance of that happening if they are in a P5 conference.

[MSU01]

Just thinking about these schools that are leaving the G5 to join a P5 conference. If your ultimate goal is to compete for a national championship, which is better: 1. Join a P5 and making the playoffs by navigating a brutal schedule, or 2. Stay in a G5 and run the table with a manageable schedule and get the bid to the playoff? As an example, UNLV (who would have ever imagined it possible) could go undefeated. The highest ranked G5 school right now is Boise State, who UNLV plays later this year. UNLV could get into the playoff as the G5 entry. I don’t think there is any chance of that happening if they are in a P5 conference.

Will the new Pac-whatever even qualify as a P5 conference when only two of their teams will have played in the former incarnation that was P5? Either way, I think these schools are considering the almighty dollar ($$$) a lot more than their national championship chances in football when they're making these decisions to stay or move.

[Cataholic]

Just thinking about these schools that are leaving the G5 to join a P5 conference. If your ultimate goal is to compete for a national championship, which is better: 1. Join a P5 and making the playoffs by navigating a brutal schedule, or 2. Stay in a G5 and run the table with a manageable schedule and get the bid to the playoff? As an example, UNLV (who would have ever imagined it possible) could go undefeated. The highest ranked G5 school right now is Boise State, who UNLV plays later this year. UNLV could get into the playoff as the G5 entry. I don’t think there is any chance of that happening if they are in a P5 conference.

Will the new Pac-whatever even qualify as a P5 conference when only two of their teams will have played in the former incarnation that was P5? Either way, I think these schools are considering the almighty dollar ($$$) a lot more than their national championship chances in football when they're making these decisions to stay or move.

There is no question that $$$$ are driving these decisions. I just thought it was crazy that certain schools have a better chance at competing for a national title by staying in a G5. Not only UNLV, but Boise State and Fresno State as well.

Nobody really knows if the Pac will maintain P5 status for the playoffs. I read that they are contractually tied into the playoff system as a P5, but I fully expect another evolution of P5 conferences is ahead of us where the NCAA won’t be included in discussions. They will be a new self governing entity and some schools will be excluded from the party. I am guessing that the PAC and G5’s will get screwed.

[onceacat]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

[BleedingBLue]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

UVU has always talked about adding football, but hasn't done it. I'm not sure they'd add and go straight FBS. Grand Canyon has nowhere to put a stadium. Their campus is tiny and full up. They'd be basketball only schools, which is fine unless you lose a football member at some point. I think C-USA and the MWC are going to have to think really hard about adding FCS schools (more in the case of C-USA) to ensure they survive.

[onceacat]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

UVU has always talked about adding football, but hasn't done it. I'm not sure they'd add and go straight FBS. Grand Canyon has nowhere to put a stadium. Their campus is tiny and full up. They'd be basketball only schools, which is fine unless you lose a football member at some point. I think C-USA and the MWC are going to have to think really hard about adding FCS schools (more in the case of C-USA) to ensure they survive.

UVU wouldn't go straight to FBS for sure. But they are probably thinking more strategically. Grand Canyon has lots of options other than building its own stadium. And obviously not a short term issue either.

I forgot that Conference USA is adding Delaware and Missouri State next year in addition to Kennesaw State this year. (Kennesaw State didn't start a football program until 2015). Pretty much the entire conference is recent FCS move ups...Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee & FIU (ok, that was 20+ years ago).

At any rate, any of the 8 teams I mentions would likely run the table in Conf-USA.

I think MW has some tough choices to make. FCS has already been gutted beyond repair, so unless the MWC & Conf USA (and MAC and Sun Belt) are dropping back to FCS where they belong, MSU needs to be working on the jump.

[tetoncat]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

UVU has always talked about adding football, but hasn't done it. I'm not sure they'd add and go straight FBS. Grand Canyon has nowhere to put a stadium. Their campus is tiny and full up. They'd be basketball only schools, which is fine unless you lose a football member at some point. I think C-USA and the MWC are going to have to think really hard about adding FCS schools (more in the case of C-USA) to ensure they survive.

UVU wouldn't go straight to FBS for sure. But they are probably thinking more strategically. Grand Canyon has lots of options other than building its own stadium. And obviously not a short term issue either.

I forgot that Conference USA is adding Delaware and Missouri State next year in addition to Kennesaw State this year. (Kennesaw State didn't start a football program until 2015). Pretty much the entire conference is recent FCS move ups...Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee & FIU (ok, that was 20+ years ago).

At any rate, any of the 8 teams I mentions would likely run the table in Conf-USA.

I think MW has some tough choices to make. FCS has already been gutted beyond repair, so unless the MWC & Conf USA (and MAC and Sun Belt) are dropping back to FCS where they belong, MSU needs to be working on the jump.

Seems like a common thought but I am wondering what you and other posters think can be worked on. It is all about an invite. Also your examples show it isn't about a competitive program or history, just because the MT and DSU schools are top of FCS doesn't make them most attractive targets.

[BleedingBLue]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

UVU has always talked about adding football, but hasn't done it. I'm not sure they'd add and go straight FBS. Grand Canyon has nowhere to put a stadium. Their campus is tiny and full up. They'd be basketball only schools, which is fine unless you lose a football member at some point. I think C-USA and the MWC are going to have to think really hard about adding FCS schools (more in the case of C-USA) to ensure they survive.

UVU wouldn't go straight to FBS for sure. But they are probably thinking more strategically. Grand Canyon has lots of options other than building its own stadium. And obviously not a short term issue either.

I forgot that Conference USA is adding Delaware and Missouri State next year in addition to Kennesaw State this year. (Kennesaw State didn't start a football program until 2015). Pretty much the entire conference is recent FCS move ups...Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee & FIU (ok, that was 20+ years ago).

At any rate, any of the 8 teams I mentions would likely run the table in Conf-USA.

I think MW has some tough choices to make. FCS has already been gutted beyond repair, so unless the MWC & Conf USA (and MAC and Sun Belt) are dropping back to FCS where they belong, MSU needs to be working on the jump.

From what I've heard, Grand Canyon doesn't have any attractive options, which is why they haven't added football. C-USA clearly doesn't mind adding FCS schools, and I could see them adding more (Tarleton as an example), in order to stay alive. The MWC may have to decide if they're too cool for that, or if being a respectable conference is more important.

[MSU01]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

We should probably consider the MWC as being down to 5 teams and not 6, since Hawaii is a member for football only. Even if they add two members and get back up to 8 for football, they'd only be at 7 for most other sports and would lose their automatic bids in the postseason tournaments for those sports. Given that the MWC has become known recently for its basketball success moreso than for football, I'm sure they'll be thinking about more than football only in terms of their future viability as a conference.

[onceacat]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

UVU has always talked about adding football, but hasn't done it. I'm not sure they'd add and go straight FBS. Grand Canyon has nowhere to put a stadium. Their campus is tiny and full up. They'd be basketball only schools, which is fine unless you lose a football member at some point. I think C-USA and the MWC are going to have to think really hard about adding FCS schools (more in the case of C-USA) to ensure they survive.

UVU wouldn't go straight to FBS for sure. But they are probably thinking more strategically. Grand Canyon has lots of options other than building its own stadium. And obviously not a short term issue either.

I forgot that Conference USA is adding Delaware and Missouri State next year in addition to Kennesaw State this year. (Kennesaw State didn't start a football program until 2015). Pretty much the entire conference is recent FCS move ups...Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee & FIU (ok, that was 20+ years ago).

At any rate, any of the 8 teams I mentions would likely run the table in Conf-USA.

I think MW has some tough choices to make. FCS has already been gutted beyond repair, so unless the MWC & Conf USA (and MAC and Sun Belt) are dropping back to FCS where they belong, MSU needs to be working on the jump.

Seems like a common thought but I am wondering what you and other posters think can be worked on. It is all about an invite. Also your examples show it isn't about a competitive program or history, just because the MT and DSU schools are top of FCS doesn't make them most attractive targets.

I'm not sure how you think 'getting invited' works, but it's a lot like being recited as an athlete or MSU hiring a new football coach. It's a two way street. You have to work to get an invite (i.e. schmoozing, phone calls to conference pooh-bahs, other ADs, university presidents, the BOR etc)

UNLV largely didn't get an invite in the first round of Pac poaching becasue a move requires a vote of the Nevada board of regents. Similarly, the MWC doesnt really want to extend an invite to MSU if they know that UM/MSU are a package deal & the BOR may not approve a move anyway.

Other than the cost of hotel rooms in Missoula & Bozeman, MSU/UM are 100% as attractive to FBS conferences as Missouri State or Western Kentucky or Delaware or Sam Houston. It's a matter of politicking to make it happen.

[CodyCat]

I understand and agree that the big four FCS schools are most likely not the MWC top options. But, does the fact that all four being State schools provide any value.

For instance, Utah Valley University vs Montana State (Montana, North Dakota State, South Dakota State). It seems like at face value just the school name provides something. Thoughts?

[Camo_Cat]

I understand and agree that the big four FCS schools are most likely not the MWC top options. But, does the fact that all four being State schools provide any value.

For instance, Utah Valley University vs Montana State (Montana, North Dakota State, South Dakota State). It seems like at face value just the school name provides something. Thoughts?

I absolutely think this is a component that comes into play. Even the MWC does not want directional schools. Being the state schools holds value.

[tetoncat]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

UVU has always talked about adding football, but hasn't done it. I'm not sure they'd add and go straight FBS. Grand Canyon has nowhere to put a stadium. Their campus is tiny and full up. They'd be basketball only schools, which is fine unless you lose a football member at some point. I think C-USA and the MWC are going to have to think really hard about adding FCS schools (more in the case of C-USA) to ensure they survive.

UVU wouldn't go straight to FBS for sure. But they are probably thinking more strategically. Grand Canyon has lots of options other than building its own stadium. And obviously not a short term issue either.

I forgot that Conference USA is adding Delaware and Missouri State next year in addition to Kennesaw State this year. (Kennesaw State didn't start a football program until 2015). Pretty much the entire conference is recent FCS move ups...Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee & FIU (ok, that was 20+ years ago).

At any rate, any of the 8 teams I mentions would likely run the table in Conf-USA.

I think MW has some tough choices to make. FCS has already been gutted beyond repair, so unless the MWC & Conf USA (and MAC and Sun Belt) are dropping back to FCS where they belong, MSU needs to be working on the jump.

Seems like a common thought but I am wondering what you and other posters think can be worked on. It is all about an invite. Also your examples show it isn't about a competitive program or history, just because the MT and DSU schools are top of FCS doesn't make them most attractive targets.

I'm not sure how you think 'getting invited' works, but it's a lot like being recited as an athlete or MSU hiring a new football coach. It's a two way street. You have to work to get an invite (i.e. schmoozing, phone calls to conference pooh-bahs, other ADs, university presidents, the BOR etc)

UNLV largely didn't get an invite in the first round of Pac poaching becasue a move requires a vote of the Nevada board of regents. Similarly, the MWC doesnt really want to extend an invite to MSU if they know that UM/MSU are a package deal & the BOR may not approve a move anyway.

Other than the cost of hotel rooms in Missoula & Bozeman, MSU/UM are 100% as attractive to FBS conferences as Missouri State or Western Kentucky or Delaware or Sam Houston. It's a matter of politicking to make it happen.

Are you saying then that UM, MSU,NDSU and SDSU haven't been doing anything behind the scenes the last 5-10 years or are they just geographically limited for prospective conferences

[coloradocat]

If I have this right, the Pac will have 8 teams if it adds UNLV & Utah State. MWC would be down to 6...Even if the MWC is able to raid Conf USA (and UTEP & MN State make a ton of sense geographically) then that leaves 3 conferences all with 8 teams.

Eight is far less than ideal for scheduling purposes-it creates a ton of extra OOC games in football & BB both. And 8 teams means every conference is at risk of dissolution if a single team gets raided, which makes it tougher to sign a good TV contract.

It seems to me that even in the #1 scenario listed by Catprint, theres still a 75% or better chance that somebody comes knocking to some combination of the DSSUs, Montanas, and maybe Davis or Sac or the other Dakota schools. (Theres very little doubt that others, like Utah Valley or Tarleton or Gand Canyon have higher aspirations sooner rather than later).

FCS is already too watered down IMO. If FCS were to lose any of those top tier programs, it would get even worse.

IMO, UM & MSU need to be working the system for an invite before we get left behind & games like Maine & Mercyhurst become all thats available at the BCS level.

UVU has always talked about adding football, but hasn't done it. I'm not sure they'd add and go straight FBS. Grand Canyon has nowhere to put a stadium. Their campus is tiny and full up. They'd be basketball only schools, which is fine unless you lose a football member at some point. I think C-USA and the MWC are going to have to think really hard about adding FCS schools (more in the case of C-USA) to ensure they survive.

UVU wouldn't go straight to FBS for sure. But they are probably thinking more strategically. Grand Canyon has lots of options other than building its own stadium. And obviously not a short term issue either.

I forgot that Conference USA is adding Delaware and Missouri State next year in addition to Kennesaw State this year. (Kennesaw State didn't start a football program until 2015). Pretty much the entire conference is recent FCS move ups...Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee & FIU (ok, that was 20+ years ago).

At any rate, any of the 8 teams I mentions would likely run the table in Conf-USA.

I think MW has some tough choices to make. FCS has already been gutted beyond repair, so unless the MWC & Conf USA (and MAC and Sun Belt) are dropping back to FCS where they belong, MSU needs to be working on the jump.

Seems like a common thought but I am wondering what you and other posters think can be worked on. It is all about an invite. Also your examples show it isn't about a competitive program or history, just because the MT and DSU schools are top of FCS doesn't make them most attractive targets.

I'm not sure how you think 'getting invited' works, but it's a lot like being recited as an athlete or MSU hiring a new football coach. It's a two way street. You have to work to get an invite (i.e. schmoozing, phone calls to conference pooh-bahs, other ADs, university presidents, the BOR etc)

UNLV largely didn't get an invite in the first round of Pac poaching becasue a move requires a vote of the Nevada board of regents. Similarly, the MWC doesnt really want to extend an invite to MSU if they know that UM/MSU are a package deal & the BOR may not approve a move anyway.

Other than the cost of hotel rooms in Missoula & Bozeman, MSU/UM are 100% as attractive to FBS conferences as Missouri State or Western Kentucky or Delaware or Sam Houston. It's a matter of politicking to make it happen.

Are you saying then that UM, MSU,NDSU and SDSU haven't been doing anything behind the scenes the last 5-10 years or are they just geographically limited for prospective conferences

Alternatively, is @onceacat saying that there is an amount of effort can overcome economics and the Montana schools aren't doing it? What is that amount?

[CelticCat]

New Mexico State will leave the CUSA to join their buddies New Mexico in the MWC
UTEP is added
UNLV leaves to the Pac
MSU and UM get invited (and get a chunk of money to come)

MWC:
Air Force
Nevada
Wyoming
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Montana
Montana State
Hawaii
UTEP
SJSU

I get my own radio show and quit my day job