Griz (and some Cat) Info

[Grizfan7]

1. From the PSU coach:

"Their offense dominated," said Viking Coach Bruce Barnum. "When we had the ball we challenged them in the run, and they won that battle. We probably should have thrown more earlier, but it seemed like the offense never had the ball."

And that's not far from the truth as Montana had four drives during the game of 12 plays or more. Two resulted in touchdowns, one a field goal and one a punt.

"Montana has gotten better each week this season. That's a coaching feat. They are peaking at the right time. In all three phases of the game we got beat, and that doesn't happen very often," Barnum said.

The Griz out-gained the Vikings, 293-105, in the half. They scored on all four of their possessions with lengthy drives of 12, 9, 9 and 12 plays."

2. In last 3 games, UM has outscored opponents 108-17.

3. Cats average 43.8 points per game. UM gives up 15.2 per game. UM has given up 20 TD's. MSU has scored 59 TD's.

4. Cats average 302.5 yards per game (2d in nation). UM has given up 84.8 yards per game (4th in nation). 7.5 yards per carry, to 2.9.

5. Gillman is 3d in rushing has a 5.8 average. Davis is 5th in rushing and has 6.8 average. Chambers, Mellott and McDowell average 8.5, 7.6 and 4.7 per carry. Rushing TD's are 14, 3 and 6.

6. UM receivers are 7, 8 and 18 in conference. MSU's are 28, 33 and 37.

7. Main FG kickers are both about 50%. Their replacements are better, I believe, but I didn't look up.

8. Hill is 3d in tackles. Askelson and O'Reilly and are 1th and 12th.

9. Both teams have injuries. I posted a quote on the UM injuries in another thread, and don't know the Cats' injury situation.

10. Cats have 33 sacks. UM has given up 27, which is a huge amount, but not many of those have involved McDowell. So, UM has improved greatly in that stat in recent games. Both teams have about the same interceptions made, and neither team has had given up many picks. McDowell has only 1 for season. Neither Chambers or Mellott have many either.

11. 3d down conversion: Cats 50%, UM 45%. 4th and 20th in the nation.

12. UM is tied for 7th in nation in red zone defense. MSU is not listed in top 50.

13. MSU has lost 3 fumbles; UM 4. MSU is 9th in nation in TO margin; UM is 11th

14. Weather doesn't look like a factor. Mid-40's for high.

15. Watch out for the slow entrances, especially from the NEZ. Sometimes the west side entrance is a bit better.

[Grizfan7]

Riley Wilson, UM lb, is first in the conference in sacks and TFL. Gerbe is 5th in both. Wilson is 7th and 19th in nation.

[Grizfan7]

“This team continues to get better,” said MSU head coach Brent Vigen, who joined the Cats in 2021. “As you move through November, that’s your barometer: Are you getting better? Are you staying the same? You’ve got to make a conscious decision to keep battling, keep preparing each week. I think this team right now continues to answer the bell.”

“We’re firing on all cylinders,” Sumner said. “Our offense complements our defense. Even special teams, we got a blocked punt today. I think we’re in a good spot.”

It’s highly possible that MSU goes into Missoula next week and suffers another close road loss. It’s unclear just how high MSU’s ceiling stands. But the Cats appear capable of beating anyone in the FCS.

“I feel good. Generally, I feel decent about where our health is at right now,” Vigen said. “I think this is a hungry group, a group that (there’s) no doubt about their willingness to continue to go back to work.”

Missoulian article/Flores.

[Grizfan7]

"These Cats have largely looked better than last year’s team, which beat UM at home 55-21 and didn’t lose to an FCS team until the semifinals. This year's losses at SDSU and Idaho are concerning, but they’re probably not canaries. MSU was inches aways from winning both games." Flores, article.

Do Cat fans agree with this? I don't. I liked last year's Cat team a bit better. To me, losing to Idaho this late in the season was a bad sign. Maybe a canary. But I will defer to the knowledgeable Cat fans on this.

[Montanabob]

little published fact.....
robbie had 3 tfl and had to wear a sack to hide his shame for tackling PSU players.

[tdub]

I firmly believe this year’s MSU team is significantly better than 2022’s. Offense is significantly better and more dynamic. The 2’s and 3’s have played a lot of minutes later in games this season, including the 3rd QB in the entire 2nd half of EWU game. If the 1’s played the same percentage of snaps as last season, the on-paper numbers would jump even higher. They’ve played a much tougher schedule this year and still have improved statistically across the board.

Defense across the board is much more sound and has given up very few big plays compared to last season. Front 4 continues to be the huge strength that drives the success of the defense.

The depth overall is far superior this year as compared to last year. Which is good because it has been tested this year.

In the wins: there haven’t been any games that were really in doubt going into the 4th quarter. So they haven’t had that moment yet this year where they grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat. 2 chances to do so, but neither turned out well.
In the losses:
SDSU: I don’t feel MSU’s offense was nearly as dynamic then as it has evolved into throughout the season. I feel MSU across the board is about on par with SDSU and that game showed it. SDSU was without their top LB and WR, and MSU didn’t play even close to potential on offense (partially due to SDSU’s defense of course). I think a rematch would have a similar margin of score, no matter who wins. This game result was literally an inch and a replay review from going the other way.
Idaho: I think we saw a culmination of factors that led the Cats to a very sub-par performance. Went to SAC and had a late game, back to Bozeman early Sunday morning. Then winter storm hits and definitely affects practice that week. The right back on the road to 2nd top 5 game in a row, with Idaho coming off a bye week and two weeks of prep. Idaho earned the win, but MSU had a lot of non-game hurdles to overcome. But MSU still dang near pulled out a victory.

I expect MSU defensively will game plan similar to Idaho, where they blitzed very little and left virtually no running lanes or roll outs or McCoy. They were very gap sound and it wasn’t until they had been on the field for damn near 40 minutes when they just wore down (see the other factors above). I think UM will find it very hard to run the ball. Their success will come in the quick passing game. MSU has tackled receivers well this year, with not much YAC given up. But I think this is the win/loss formula for the gris offense this week. Longer developing pass routes won’t work as MSU’s very good D-line should overpower an injury-riddled O-line for UM.

On MSU offense: not much to discuss as this all hinges on MSU running the ball and effectively throwing off that and taking advantage of what a very aggressive downhill defense can leave open.

I think MSU wins this game, unless the gris get one or two early major momentum shifting plays that result in MSU being down a couple scores. That’s what UM feeds off of, as well as the crowd. Aside from that happening, I don’t see UM having the depth (like D-line rotation of 8-10 guys) to stay with MSU if it comes down to a 4th quarter game. UM absolutely has a path to win this game too, I’d just put the odds in MSU’s favor.

[catatac]

"These Cats have largely looked better than last year’s team, which beat UM at home 55-21 and didn’t lose to an FCS team until the semifinals. This year's losses at SDSU and Idaho are concerning, but they’re probably not canaries. MSU was inches aways from winning both games." Flores, article.

Do Cat fans agree with this? I don't. I liked last year's Cat team a bit better. To me, losing to Idaho this late in the season was a bad sign. Maybe a canary. But I will defer to the knowledgeable Cat fans on this.

I think this team is significantly better than they were last year. Close loss at SDSU proved that because last year we weren't strong enough on the lines to compete with them. We are now. Yes the Idaho game was a setback for Idaho played out of their minds, we lost some key players, had the rough travel schedule, they were coming off a bye, etc. Have improved every game since, and are getting some players back. Plus, the Cat passing game is better this year, obviously. In fact, I wouldn't doubt if the Cat coaches put this excellent passing performance vs EWU on film partially in preparation for The Brawl. Griz cannot just assume we're running the rock every play like the past few years so they'll have to adjust their schemes in the back. This will allow the rushing attach to thrive, IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cats run it down the Griz throats' again.

[onceacat]

"These Cats have largely looked better than last year’s team, which beat UM at home 55-21 and didn’t lose to an FCS team until the semifinals. This year's losses at SDSU and Idaho are concerning, but they’re probably not canaries. MSU was inches aways from winning both games." Flores, article.

Do Cat fans agree with this? I don't. I liked last year's Cat team a bit better. To me, losing to Idaho this late in the season was a bad sign. Maybe a canary. But I will defer to the knowledgeable Cat fans on this.

This years team is a lot better. Its really not even close.

Cats lost to SDSU on a bad officiating review (I'm not saying Cats were in, but there was clearly no evidence to overturn)...then lost to the #3 team in the country by a FG when Idaho had a bye coming in & Cats were on a short turnaround.

Last years Cat team was good, but it wouldn't have taken those games down to the wire.

[onceacat]

Things that jump out to me:

MSU has the #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and #7 rushers using yards per carry (I excluded 2 guys with <10 carries)

UMs opponents in the last 3 games a combined 11-19, MSUs opponents 15-15...MSU outscored those teams 126-56.

MSU averages 8.0 yards/play, UM averages 5.5

MSU gives up 5.0/play, UM gives up 4.8

MSU is #1 in pass efficiency, UM #6.

End of the day: UM & MSU are almost dead even statistically on Defense...but MSU is substantially better on offense despite having played a MUCH more difficult schedule. The one place where UM shines is red zone defense...which has been a point of frustration for a lot of Cat fans, despite MSU being #1 in the conference.

I like the match up.

[TomCat88]

Anyone else having trouble getting the BSC website to open? It's really slow. Anyway:
Montana State's BSC rankings -
Scoring: #1 Offense 42.3; #2 Defense 19.6
Total: #1 Offense 482.7; #2 Defense 308.8
Rush: #1/#1 Offense 305.6/7.5; #2/#3 Defense 120.2/3.8
Passing: #2 Offense 151.0; #3 Defense 116.5
Sacks: #1 Offense 6; #1 Defense 28

[Grizfan7]

"These Cats have largely looked better than last year’s team, which beat UM at home 55-21 and didn’t lose to an FCS team until the semifinals. This year's losses at SDSU and Idaho are concerning, but they’re probably not canaries. MSU was inches aways from winning both games." Flores, article.

Do Cat fans agree with this? I don't. I liked last year's Cat team a bit better. To me, losing to Idaho this late in the season was a bad sign. Maybe a canary. But I will defer to the knowledgeable Cat fans on this.

I think this team is significantly better than they were last year. Close loss at SDSU proved that because last year we weren't strong enough on the lines to compete with them. We are now. Yes the Idaho game was a setback for Idaho played out of their minds, we lost some key players, had the rough travel schedule, they were coming off a bye, etc. Have improved every game since, and are getting some players back. Plus, the Cat passing game is better this year, obviously. In fact, I wouldn't doubt if the Cat coaches put this excellent passing performance vs EWU on film partially in preparation for The Brawl. Griz cannot just assume we're running the rock every play like the past few years so they'll have to adjust their schemes in the back. This will allow the rushing attach to thrive, IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cats run it down the Griz throats' again.

I saw part of the Idaho v. MSU game, and I didn't think Idaho played out of their minds. And, obviously, I saw UM beat Idaho. MSU went 3 and out on first 3 drives. 9 plays and 14 yards. Idaho stuffed MSU. Then, MSU got ball with under 3 minutes to go and drove 56 yards for TD. 19 plays for 67 yards in first half for MSU. Under 6 minutes TOP for MSU in first half.

12-24 passing for MSU. 24-29 for Idaho. MSU stuffed the Idaho run. Davis got going in 2d half and was 11-84. Mellott and Chambers were 9-27 running.

The Cat D didn't stop the Idaho pass, and didn't get any picks like UM did (2).

41.5 to 18.5 TOP for Idaho. Plays were 73-47. No turnovers and few penalties for either team. Cats sacked Idaho 3 times, and were sacked once. 3d/4th down conversions were 9-19 for Idaho and 5-10 for Cats. 4-4 redzone scoring for Idaho.

I don't see the Cats running it down UM's throats. UM will have a much better scheme and will play more disciplined. A couple of the UM linebackers have nice speed, especially Wilson. The game plays of the new DC, Tim Hauck and the other D coaches will be much better this year. The Cat running game has been slowed and even stopped at times. There is learning out there on how to do that.

Thanks for the info and discussion.

[Grizfan7]

I firmly believe this year’s MSU team is significantly better than 2022’s. Offense is significantly better and more dynamic. The 2’s and 3’s have played a lot of minutes later in games this season, including the 3rd QB in the entire 2nd half of EWU game. If the 1’s played the same percentage of snaps as last season, the on-paper numbers would jump even higher. They’ve played a much tougher schedule this year and still have improved statistically across the board. [MSU passing is better, with better accuracy and fewer picks. My limited observation makes me think the run game is a bit inconsistent. In some halves, or more, the run game hasn't been that good.]

Defense across the board is much more sound and has given up very few big plays compared to last season. Front 4 continues to be the huge strength that drives the success of the defense. [I don't think the Cat D is great. UM D is better.]

The depth overall is far superior this year as compared to last year. Which is good because it has been tested this year.

In the wins: there haven’t been any games that were really in doubt going into the 4th quarter. So they haven’t had that moment yet this year where they grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat. 2 chances to do so, but neither turned out well.
In the losses:
SDSU: I don’t feel MSU’s offense was nearly as dynamic then as it has evolved into throughout the season. I feel MSU across the board is about on par with SDSU and that game showed it. SDSU was without their top LB and WR, and MSU didn’t play even close to potential on offense (partially due to SDSU’s defense of course). I think a rematch would have a similar margin of score, no matter who wins. This game result was literally an inch and a replay review from going the other way.
Idaho: I think we saw a culmination of factors that led the Cats to a very sub-par performance. Went to SAC and had a late game, back to Bozeman early Sunday morning. Then winter storm hits and definitely affects practice that week. The right back on the road to 2nd top 5 game in a row, with Idaho coming off a bend two weeks of prep. Idaho earned the win, but MSU had a lot of non-game hurdles to overcome. But MSU still dang near pulled out a victory. [I call BS on the Cat "problems". A good team does let that affect them.]

I expect MSU defensively will game plan similar to Idaho, where they blitzed very little and left virtually no running lanes or roll outs or McCoy. They were very gap sound and it wasn’t until they had been on the field for damn near 40 minutes when they just wore down (see the other factors above). I think UM will find it very hard to run the ball. Their success will come in the quick passing game. MSU has tackled receivers well this year, with not much YAC given up. But I think this is the win/loss formula for the gris offense this week. Longer developing pass routes won’t work as MSU’s very good D-line should overpower an injury-riddled O-line for UM. [UM has tackled better this year than the Cats have.]

On MSU offense: not much to discuss as this all hinges on MSU running the ball and effectively throwing off that and taking advantage of what a very aggressive downhill defense can leave open.

I think MSU wins this game, unless the gris get one or two early major momentum shifting plays that result in MSU being down a couple scores. That’s what UM feeds off of, as well as the crowd. Aside from that happening, I don’t see UM having the depth (like D-line rotation of 8-10 guys) to stay with MSU if it comes down to a 4th quarter game. UM absolutely has a path to win this game too, I’d just put the odds in MSU’s favor. [UM's d-line depth has gotten pretty good this season. UM lacks beef on the d-line, but it has some speed and fitness. The d-line problem has been that 3 of top 4 lineman have been out all or most of season. That hurt.]

See my comments embedded in brackets/bold above. Good info. Thx.

[Grizfan7]

I keep seeing these Cat comments about MSU having much more talent than UM. Sorry, but I just don't see. More talent, maybe. Much more talent, no way.

UM has good talent and depth on the D. UM linebackers are better than MSU backers. I'm not overly impressed with the MSU secondary either.

The UM running backs and receivers are better than MSU's. MSU's o-line is probably better for the O they run, but the UM o-line has talent too, and depth. UM is down a bunch of guys at left guard right now. MSU has 2 terrific QB's.

[tdub]

I firmly believe this year’s MSU team is significantly better than 2022’s. Offense is significantly better and more dynamic. The 2’s and 3’s have played a lot of minutes later in games this season, including the 3rd QB in the entire 2nd half of EWU game. If the 1’s played the same percentage of snaps as last season, the on-paper numbers would jump even higher. They’ve played a much tougher schedule this year and still have improved statistically across the board. [MSU passing is better, with better accuracy and fewer picks. My limited observation makes me think the run game is a bit inconsistent. In some halves, or more, the run game hasn't been that good.] If averaging 300+ yards on the season and 7.5 per carry is an inconsistent run game, then I sure hope they keep that same inconsistency. I would have figured you knew that run games tend to get stronger as games go on, so some halves don’t look as good.

Defense across the board is much more sound and has given up very few big plays compared to last season. Front 4 continues to be the huge strength that drives the success of the defense. [I don't think the Cat D is great. UM D is better.] A) I didn’t say the Cats D was great. I said much mor sound than last year. B)What does UM’s D have to do with comparing 2022 Cats to this years Cats?

The depth overall is far superior this year as compared to last year. Which is good because it has been tested this year.

In the wins: there haven’t been any games that were really in doubt going into the 4th quarter. So they haven’t had that moment yet this year where they grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat. 2 chances to do so, but neither turned out well.
In the losses:
SDSU: I don’t feel MSU’s offense was nearly as dynamic then as it has evolved into throughout the season. I feel MSU across the board is about on par with SDSU and that game showed it. SDSU was without their top LB and WR, and MSU didn’t play even close to potential on offense (partially due to SDSU’s defense of course). I think a rematch would have a similar margin of score, no matter who wins. This game result was literally an inch and a replay review from going the other way.
Idaho: I think we saw a culmination of factors that led the Cats to a very sub-par performance. Went to SAC and had a late game, back to Bozeman early Sunday morning. Then winter storm hits and definitely affects practice that week. The right back on the road to 2nd top 5 game in a row, with Idaho coming off a bend two weeks of prep. Idaho earned the win, but MSU had a lot of non-game hurdles to overcome. But MSU still dang near pulled out a victory. [I call BS on the Cat "problems". A good team does let that affect them.] B.S.?? If you don’t think all that stuff doesn’t effect student athletes and can impact a game it’s been way too long since you played the game. And another good team having 2 weeks of prep vs. the other team with a weather-impacted week doesn’t also affect a game? These aren’t NFL professionals. They’re young men and and aren’t perfect machines. It’s not an excuse for losing the game, but part of the equation that made up a bad day for the Cats. I said Idaho earned the win. They game-planned very well, and the Cats played flat. There’s a difference between factors and excuses. The Cats didn’t overcome the factors.

I expect MSU defensively will game plan similar to Idaho, where they blitzed very little and left virtually no running lanes or roll outs or McCoy. They were very gap sound and it wasn’t until they had been on the field for damn near 40 minutes when they just wore down (see the other factors above). I think UM will find it very hard to run the ball. Their success will come in the quick passing game. MSU has tackled receivers well this year, with not much YAC given up. But I think this is the win/loss formula for the gris offense this week. Longer developing pass routes won’t work as MSU’s very good D-line should overpower an injury-riddled O-line for UM. [UM has tackled better this year than the Cats have.] What does that have to do with MSU’s defensive game plan and how I think the UM offense can succeed? And again, how do you know this if you don’t know much about the Cats?

On MSU offense: not much to discuss as this all hinges on MSU running the ball and effectively throwing off that and taking advantage of what a very aggressive downhill defense can leave open.

I think MSU wins this game, unless the gris get one or two early major momentum shifting plays that result in MSU being down a couple scores. That’s what UM feeds off of, as well as the crowd. Aside from that happening, I don’t see UM having the depth (like D-line rotation of 8-10 guys) to stay with MSU if it comes down to a 4th quarter game. UM absolutely has a path to win this game too, I’d just put the odds in MSU’s favor. [UM's d-line depth has gotten pretty good this season. UM lacks beef on the d-line, but it has some speed and fitness. The d-line problem has been that 3 of top 4 lineman have been out all or most of season. That hurt.]
3 or 4 guys out, hence current lack of depth. I’m friends with the Nuce family and was super bummed when Hank went down this year. Love that guy, great kid. But now they don’t have 8-10 guys that can effectively rotate without much drop off. Gubner doesn’t come off much. Even a stud like him can get worn down late. That’s why I’m saying if it comes down to a 4th quarter slugfest, advantage Cats.

See my comments embedded in brackets/bold above. Good info. Thx.

For saying you know very little about the Cats team, you sure jump to conclusions pretty quick about comparing the Cats and gris. You asked is the Cats this year are better than last. Most of what I said was comparing seasons. In fact, I didn’t compare any MSU unit to a UM unit (like MSU D vs. UM D).

But since you went there, my answers are in italics after your bolds.

[Joe Bobcat]

I saw part of the Idaho v. MSU game, and I didn't think Idaho played out of their minds.

I completely understand what you're saying there and where you're coming from. I saw part of the Mount Saint Helens volcanic eruption, and I didn't think it was that big of a geologic event.

[TomCat88]

Anyone else having trouble getting the BSC website to open? It's really slow. Anyway:
Montana State's BSC rankings -
Scoring: #1 Offense 42.3; #2 Defense 19.6
Total: #1 Offense 482.7; #2 Defense 308.8
Rush: #1/#1 Offense 305.6/7.5; #2/#3 Defense 120.2/3.8
Passing: #2 Offense 151.0; #3 Defense 116.5
Sacks: #1 Offense 6; #1 Defense 33

2022 Defense vs 2023 Defense
..........2022............2023
Scoring 26.6.............19.6
Total...359.9...........308.8
YPerP.... 5.7..............5.0
Rush ..139.7............120.2
YPerC...4.3................3.8
Pass Eff 137.1..........120.5
Sacks... 32(14 games)..33(10 games)

[Grizfan7]

Things that jump out to me:

MSU has the #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and #7 rushers using yards per carry (I excluded 2 guys with <10 carries)

UMs opponents in the last 3 games a combined 11-19, MSUs opponents 15-15...MSU outscored those teams 126-56.

MSU averages 8.0 yards/play, UM averages 5.5

MSU gives up 5.0/play, UM gives up 4.8

MSU is #1 in pass efficiency, UM #6.

End of the day: UM & MSU are almost dead even statistically on Defense...but MSU is substantially better on offense despite having played a MUCH more difficult schedule. The one place where UM shines is red zone defense...which has been a point of frustration for a lot of Cat fans, despite MSU being #1 in the conference.

I like the match up.

These stats show UM with better defensive stats. I don't see this as any big deal, one way or another. Just interesting to some extent.

Scoring given up - 15.2 (UM) to 19 - 4th and 16th in nation

Rushing give up - 85 (UM) to 114.5

9th (UM) and 14th in nation on 3d down conversion D

19th (UM) and not in top 50 on 4th down conversion D

Red zone D - 7th in nation (UM) and not listed in top 50

TFL - 37th in nation (UM) and not listed in top 50

TO margin - about the same

Passing yards given up - 233 (MSU) to 227

20 (UM) to 25 TD's given up

MSU has good leads on sacks; UM has 1 more interception

Total D: 312 (UM) to 317

[Grizfan7]

I firmly believe this year’s MSU team is significantly better than 2022’s. Offense is significantly better and more dynamic. The 2’s and 3’s have played a lot of minutes later in games this season, including the 3rd QB in the entire 2nd half of EWU game. If the 1’s played the same percentage of snaps as last season, the on-paper numbers would jump even higher. They’ve played a much tougher schedule this year and still have improved statistically across the board. [MSU passing is better, with better accuracy and fewer picks. My limited observation makes me think the run game is a bit inconsistent. In some halves, or more, the run game hasn't been that good.] If averaging 300+ yards on the season and 7.5 per carry is an inconsistent run game, then I sure hope they keep that same inconsistency. I would have figured you knew that run games tend to get stronger as games go on, so some halves don’t look as good.

Defense across the board is much more sound and has given up very few big plays compared to last season. Front 4 continues to be the huge strength that drives the success of the defense. [I don't think the Cat D is great. UM D is better.] A) I didn’t say the Cats D was great. I said much mor sound than last year. B)What does UM’s D have to do with comparing 2022 Cats to this years Cats?

The depth overall is far superior this year as compared to last year. Which is good because it has been tested this year.

In the wins: there haven’t been any games that were really in doubt going into the 4th quarter. So they haven’t had that moment yet this year where they grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat. 2 chances to do so, but neither turned out well.
In the losses:
SDSU: I don’t feel MSU’s offense was nearly as dynamic then as it has evolved into throughout the season. I feel MSU across the board is about on par with SDSU and that game showed it. SDSU was without their top LB and WR, and MSU didn’t play even close to potential on offense (partially due to SDSU’s defense of course). I think a rematch would have a similar margin of score, no matter who wins. This game result was literally an inch and a replay review from going the other way.
Idaho: I think we saw a culmination of factors that led the Cats to a very sub-par performance. Went to SAC and had a late game, back to Bozeman early Sunday morning. Then winter storm hits and definitely affects practice that week. The right back on the road to 2nd top 5 game in a row, with Idaho coming off a bend two weeks of prep. Idaho earned the win, but MSU had a lot of non-game hurdles to overcome. But MSU still dang near pulled out a victory. [I call BS on the Cat "problems". A good team does let that affect them.] B.S.?? If you don’t think all that stuff doesn’t effect student athletes and can impact a game it’s been way too long since you played the game. And another good team having 2 weeks of prep vs. the other team with a weather-impacted week doesn’t also affect a game? These aren’t NFL professionals. They’re young men and and aren’t perfect machines. It’s not an excuse for losing the game, but part of the equation that made up a bad day for the Cats. I said Idaho earned the win. They game-planned very well, and the Cats played flat. There’s a difference between factors and excuses. The Cats didn’t overcome the factors.

I expect MSU defensively will game plan similar to Idaho, where they blitzed very little and left virtually no running lanes or roll outs or McCoy. They were very gap sound and it wasn’t until they had been on the field for damn near 40 minutes when they just wore down (see the other factors above). I think UM will find it very hard to run the ball. Their success will come in the quick passing game. MSU has tackled receivers well this year, with not much YAC given up. But I think this is the win/loss formula for the gris offense this week. Longer developing pass routes won’t work as MSU’s very good D-line should overpower an injury-riddled O-line for UM. [UM has tackled better this year than the Cats have.] What does that have to do with MSU’s defensive game plan and how I think the UM offense can succeed? And again, how do you know this if you don’t know much about the Cats?

On MSU offense: not much to discuss as this all hinges on MSU running the ball and effectively throwing off that and taking advantage of what a very aggressive downhill defense can leave open.

I think MSU wins this game, unless the gris get one or two early major momentum shifting plays that result in MSU being down a couple scores. That’s what UM feeds off of, as well as the crowd. Aside from that happening, I don’t see UM having the depth (like D-line rotation of 8-10 guys) to stay with MSU if it comes down to a 4th quarter game. UM absolutely has a path to win this game too, I’d just put the odds in MSU’s favor. [UM's d-line depth has gotten pretty good this season. UM lacks beef on the d-line, but it has some speed and fitness. The d-line problem has been that 3 of top 4 lineman have been out all or most of season. That hurt.]
3 or 4 guys out, hence current lack of depth. I’m friends with the Nuce family and was super bummed when Hank went down this year. Love that guy, great kid. But now they don’t have 8-10 guys that can effectively rotate without much drop off. Gubner doesn’t come off much. Even a stud like him can get worn down late. That’s why I’m saying if it comes down to a 4th quarter slugfest, advantage Cats.

See my comments embedded in brackets/bold above. Good info. Thx.

For saying you know very little about the Cats team, you sure jump to conclusions pretty quick about comparing the Cats and gris. You asked is the Cats this year are better than last. Most of what I said was comparing seasons. In fact, I didn’t compare any MSU unit to a UM unit (like MSU D vs. UM D).

But since you went there, my answers are in italics after your bolds.

I don't recall saying that I didn't know much about the Cats, as opposed to some position groups. If I said that, then I amend to say that I do know a decent amount about the Cats overall. Mostly from talking to former and current Big Sky coaches and high school coaches. For example, if I happened to know something like Pflu, and talked to him from time to time, and we discussed Big Sky football, then I would learn something about Big Sky football. I would also ask how you can compare MSU's strength and talent to UM's, if you don't know much about UM's strength and talent? The "significant more talent" of MSU comment still hasn't been explained enough to me.

1. The inconsistency of the run game is from half to half. Stats for a season don't show inconsistencies.

2. I will look at some Cat D stats that I think may be more important. MSU has lost 2 of its 3 toughest games, and only beat SS by 12 points.

3. If Mayginness comes back for the game, UM's o-line won't be injury-riddled.

4. The title of the thread is UM and MSU info. It is not limited to MSU. And threads evolve.

5. UM generally plays 3 down d-lineman. UM doesn't 8-10 d-lineman for depth. In any event, UM does rotate a number of d-linemen during games. Gubner plays a lot, and I assume there's drop off behind him because he is so good a disruptive.

6. If you Cats think MSU's D is better this year than last, that's good enough for me.

[Grizfan7]

Shaun Rainey
@ShaunRainey
And here’s the initial Brawl of the Wild lines

Griz 3.5 underdogs at home on
@SportsBetMT

[tdub]

I firmly believe this year’s MSU team is significantly better than 2022’s. Offense is significantly better and more dynamic. The 2’s and 3’s have played a lot of minutes later in games this season, including the 3rd QB in the entire 2nd half of EWU game. If the 1’s played the same percentage of snaps as last season, the on-paper numbers would jump even higher. They’ve played a much tougher schedule this year and still have improved statistically across the board. [MSU passing is better, with better accuracy and fewer picks. My limited observation makes me think the run game is a bit inconsistent. In some halves, or more, the run game hasn't been that good.] If averaging 300+ yards on the season and 7.5 per carry is an inconsistent run game, then I sure hope they keep that same inconsistency. I would have figured you knew that run games tend to get stronger as games go on, so some halves don’t look as good.

Defense across the board is much more sound and has given up very few big plays compared to last season. Front 4 continues to be the huge strength that drives the success of the defense. [I don't think the Cat D is great. UM D is better.] A) I didn’t say the Cats D was great. I said much mor sound than last year. B)What does UM’s D have to do with comparing 2022 Cats to this years Cats?

The depth overall is far superior this year as compared to last year. Which is good because it has been tested this year.

In the wins: there haven’t been any games that were really in doubt going into the 4th quarter. So they haven’t had that moment yet this year where they grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat. 2 chances to do so, but neither turned out well.
In the losses:
SDSU: I don’t feel MSU’s offense was nearly as dynamic then as it has evolved into throughout the season. I feel MSU across the board is about on par with SDSU and that game showed it. SDSU was without their top LB and WR, and MSU didn’t play even close to potential on offense (partially due to SDSU’s defense of course). I think a rematch would have a similar margin of score, no matter who wins. This game result was literally an inch and a replay review from going the other way.
Idaho: I think we saw a culmination of factors that led the Cats to a very sub-par performance. Went to SAC and had a late game, back to Bozeman early Sunday morning. Then winter storm hits and definitely affects practice that week. The right back on the road to 2nd top 5 game in a row, with Idaho coming off a bend two weeks of prep. Idaho earned the win, but MSU had a lot of non-game hurdles to overcome. But MSU still dang near pulled out a victory. [I call BS on the Cat "problems". A good team does let that affect them.] B.S.?? If you don’t think all that stuff doesn’t effect student athletes and can impact a game it’s been way too long since you played the game. And another good team having 2 weeks of prep vs. the other team with a weather-impacted week doesn’t also affect a game? These aren’t NFL professionals. They’re young men and and aren’t perfect machines. It’s not an excuse for losing the game, but part of the equation that made up a bad day for the Cats. I said Idaho earned the win. They game-planned very well, and the Cats played flat. There’s a difference between factors and excuses. The Cats didn’t overcome the factors.

I expect MSU defensively will game plan similar to Idaho, where they blitzed very little and left virtually no running lanes or roll outs or McCoy. They were very gap sound and it wasn’t until they had been on the field for damn near 40 minutes when they just wore down (see the other factors above). I think UM will find it very hard to run the ball. Their success will come in the quick passing game. MSU has tackled receivers well this year, with not much YAC given up. But I think this is the win/loss formula for the gris offense this week. Longer developing pass routes won’t work as MSU’s very good D-line should overpower an injury-riddled O-line for UM. [UM has tackled better this year than the Cats have.] What does that have to do with MSU’s defensive game plan and how I think the UM offense can succeed? And again, how do you know this if you don’t know much about the Cats?

On MSU offense: not much to discuss as this all hinges on MSU running the ball and effectively throwing off that and taking advantage of what a very aggressive downhill defense can leave open.

I think MSU wins this game, unless the gris get one or two early major momentum shifting plays that result in MSU being down a couple scores. That’s what UM feeds off of, as well as the crowd. Aside from that happening, I don’t see UM having the depth (like D-line rotation of 8-10 guys) to stay with MSU if it comes down to a 4th quarter game. UM absolutely has a path to win this game too, I’d just put the odds in MSU’s favor. [UM's d-line depth has gotten pretty good this season. UM lacks beef on the d-line, but it has some speed and fitness. The d-line problem has been that 3 of top 4 lineman have been out all or most of season. That hurt.]
3 or 4 guys out, hence current lack of depth. I’m friends with the Nuce family and was super bummed when Hank went down this year. Love that guy, great kid. But now they don’t have 8-10 guys that can effectively rotate without much drop off. Gubner doesn’t come off much. Even a stud like him can get worn down late. That’s why I’m saying if it comes down to a 4th quarter slugfest, advantage Cats.

See my comments embedded in brackets/bold above. Good info. Thx.

For saying you know very little about the Cats team, you sure jump to conclusions pretty quick about comparing the Cats and gris. You asked is the Cats this year are better than last. Most of what I said was comparing seasons. In fact, I didn’t compare any MSU unit to a UM unit (like MSU D vs. UM D).

But since you went there, my answers are in italics after your bolds.

I don't recall saying that I didn't know much about the Cats, as opposed to some position groups. If I said that, then I amend to say that I do know a decent amount about the Cats overall. Mostly from talking to former and current Big Sky coaches and high school coaches. For example, if I happened to know something like Pflu, and talked to him from time to time, and we discussed Big Sky football, then I would learn something about Big Sky football. I would also ask how you can compare MSU's strength and talent to UM's, if you don't know much about UM's strength and talent? The "significant more talent" of MSU comment still hasn't been explained enough to me.

1. The inconsistency of the run game is from half to half. Stats for a season don't show inconsistencies.

2. I will look at some Cat D stats that I think may be more important. MSU has lost 2 of its 3 toughest games, and only beat SS by 12 points.

3. If Mayginness comes back for the game, UM's o-line won't be injury-riddled.

4. The title of the thread is UM and MSU info. It is not limited to MSU. And threads evolve.

5. UM generally plays 3 down d-lineman. UM doesn't 8-10 d-lineman for depth. In any event, UM does rotate a number of d-linemen during games. Gubner plays a lot, and I assume there's drop off behind him because he is so good a disruptive.

6. If you Cats think MSU's D is better this year than last, that's good enough for me.

I’m not one that has said the Cats have significantly more talent, so I won’t feed into that comment. There are clearly plenty of very good athletes on both teams. I really don’t care who you talk to. I talk to people too. I do understand how human communication works, but thanks for the explanation. I have played that game, a lot. And that’s a pretty big assumption that I don’t know much about the strengths and talents of UM.

1. Like I said above, or course there isn’t total consistency half to half. Game plans evolve over the course of a game and most times rushing stats, especially when winning, in the first half and 2nd half are vastly different.

2. MSU was up 42-24 with 5 minutes left at Sac and most the 2’s were in at that time and gave up a late TD. Offense sputtered early and then came on strong. 3 score lead late on a top 10 team on the road (maybe top 5 at the time) is nothing to to scoff at.

3. Is Mayginness the only injured regular starter? I though there were more injuries. Was it his backup that went out on crutches against Sac?

4. I thought your injections of comparing were just odd and had absolutely nothing to do with what I said. I didn’t ever discuss which position groups were better. I discussed matchups this weekend I see. But that seems to be what you’re trying to do…get someone to bite on telling you why the Cats are “significantly more talented”, which is nothing but an unsubstantiated opinion as talent isn’t an objective quality. Most of your posts seem to take that tone. If you want to discuss matchups of this game, provide insight on where and how you think UM will (or MSU) find success, I’m in on that discussion. If it’s just about who’s more talented, then I’m out, as that’s a never-ending pissing match.

5. Yes, the 3-3-5 defense. My mistake, had the Cats 4-2-5 stuck on the brain when I wrote that. So 6-8 guys rotating without drop off. Do you think they still have that much quality depth with the injuries?

6. Glad we are on the same page.

Since you seem so hell bent on comparing strengths and talents, I’ll do this, my view of the matchups this weekend. But I won’t compare RB to RB, for example. It’s like comparing apples to broccoli. Both RB rooms would succeed in both offenses. There is no ground to compare, as RB production is typically a result of line play.

Key matchups I see, including why:
Cats O-line vs gris D-line. Most important matchup of the game in my view. If the Cats win this battle, they win the game as everything else launches from here. I think the rushing yards, avg per carry, lack of sacks, and point production all support that the Cats O-line is very, very good. The same metrics can be used for the gris D-line, making this on paper a good matchup. Where I see the Cats having the advantage is the UM d-line being undersized outside of Gubner. The gris are fast, but the Cats aren’t just big road graters that don’t move well. They move very well which is so important in a zone-based run game. And even though the gris run a 3-3-5 defense, it blocks more like a 3-4 where the key is getting the initial block and a d-lineman off their spot and getting to 2nd level to a LB/Safety. And that’s where the gris almost always succeed, using their speed and blitzing to get one guy free from the 2nd level. When it boils down to it, if the Cats handle the gris speed, Cats win. If not, then the gris can slow down MSU’s run game.

UM O-line vs Cats D-line. This one is tough to predict. The gris have been running well. But even just watching the PSU game, the Viks looked slow and consistently had bad run fits. Was the UM scheme or PSU lack of discipline the reason? Tough to tell. There has been inconsistency with the gris O-line this year. Some bad, some good. Definitely more good as of late. If they are down a starter or two, I give Cats D-line the advantage here. They have been rotating 8-10 guys all season and have consistently applied pressure with little/no blitz. Grebe is an absolute force off the edge. You’d be hard-pressed to find someone that goes harder than him whistle to whistle. Part of this matchup will hinge on if the zebras call much holding or not. My guess is they won’t call much, which all year holding Grebe seems to be the way he’s been slowed so I don’t expect anything different. If the refs are fast and loose on the line-play flags it could get interesting.

I not going to go into too much depth on skill position matchups because the vast majority of this game boils down to the lines. I think the gris WR are good. I’m impressed with them. RB’s are solid too, which is a product of the line play. I don’t fear McDowell and the QB run game much as the Cats have done a great job all year with containing the QB playmakers. Even though they lost to Idaho, they did a good job on McCoy. And they see a lot of QB runs all year long even out of season. Which is why I think the key to UM’s success is the short/intermediate pass game, and if they break some of those to big plays.

I’m expecting a good game. Both teams have multiple years of film and experience against each other, which closes the gap.