Covid hits MSU athletes

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coloradocat
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by coloradocat » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:03 am

Hawks86 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:55 am
Well that's not a good sign. The Big Sky also postponed their decision until after the NCAA meets next week. Looks like they're still waiting for someone else to make their decisions for them.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by Cataholic » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:29 am

LCH wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:07 am
The Mayo Clinic estimates 94% of the population needs to be immune for herd immunity.
There seems to be lots of opinions on when herd immunity is effective. The University of Texas says 60% to 70% of the population to be effective.

https://www.mdanderson.org/cancerwise/w ... 83523.html

That seems to be reasonable when you think of the flu. I doubt that 94% of the population gets the flu vaccine.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by LCH » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:48 am

The flu vaccine does not produce "herd immunity". First, the flu vaccine is nowhere near 100% effective,closer to 60-70% depending on the year. And 2nd, as you pointed out,not everyone gets the flu vaccine, hence tens of thousands of flu related deaths in a bad year.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by ibleedblue » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:14 pm

LCH wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:48 am
The flu vaccine does not produce "herd immunity". First, the flu vaccine is nowhere near 100% effective,closer to 60-70% depending on the year. And 2nd, as you pointed out,not everyone gets the flu vaccine, hence tens of thousands of flu related deaths in a bad year.
Actually the flu vaccine is only about 60% effective on a good year and can be as bad as 15-20% effective when they completely get it wrong. Only about 45-50% of the population gets the flu vaccine in a given year. Estimates are that will be up quite a bit this year due to the covid scare.

Also most reputable organizations state that about 80% is the key target number for herd immunity.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by Cledus » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:29 pm

ibleedblue wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:14 pm
LCH wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:48 am
The flu vaccine does not produce "herd immunity". First, the flu vaccine is nowhere near 100% effective,closer to 60-70% depending on the year. And 2nd, as you pointed out,not everyone gets the flu vaccine, hence tens of thousands of flu related deaths in a bad year.
Actually the flu vaccine is only about 60% effective on a good year and can be as bad as 15-20% effective when they completely get it wrong. Only about 45-50% of the population gets the flu vaccine in a given year. Estimates are that will be up quite a bit this year due to the covid scare.

Also most reputable organizations state that about 80% is the key target number for herd immunity.
Herd immunity isn't the same for all diseases. How contagious a disease is plays a big part in that threshold. I've read estimates that also put herd immunity for covid around 80%.


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by arvcat2 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:22 pm

The Butcher wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 am
This isn't good, yesterday COVID:

UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568

UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
Again, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???



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Hawks86
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by Hawks86 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:49 pm

The AD's from MSU and um were on Colter's show and I'm going to guess the season moves to spring. This fall will become a hybrid practice session.


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by BleedingBLue » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:43 pm

Hawks86 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:49 pm
The AD's from MSU and um were on Colter's show and I'm going to guess the season moves to spring. This fall will become a hybrid practice session.
Choate will absolutely LOOOOOOVE that.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by onceacat » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:08 pm

arvcat2 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:22 pm
The Butcher wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 am
This isn't good, yesterday COVID:

UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568

UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
Again, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???
Roughly the same as BASE jumping or meth addiction...somewhere around 1% CFR.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by arvcat2 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:06 am

onceacat wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:08 pm
arvcat2 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:22 pm
The Butcher wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 am
This isn't good, yesterday COVID:

UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568

UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
Again, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???
Roughly the same as BASE jumping or meth addiction...somewhere around 1% CFR.
OK, I guess I’m in the ballpark with less than ½ of 1% diagnosed and dying FROM this virus.
Coronamania, shutdowns (businesses/jobs, schools, sports, “nonessential” medical care, religious services-unless you’re a hero of the left), suicides, and on and on, is worse than the corona virus.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by RickRund » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:13 am

arvcat2 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:06 am
onceacat wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:08 pm
arvcat2 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:22 pm
The Butcher wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 am
This isn't good, yesterday COVID:

UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568

UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
Again, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???
Roughly the same as BASE jumping or meth addiction...somewhere around 1% CFR.
OK, I guess I’m in the ballpark with less than ½ of 1% diagnosed and dying FROM this virus.
Coronamania, shutdowns (businesses/jobs, schools, sports, “nonessential” medical care, religious services-unless you’re a hero of the left), suicides, and on and on, is worse than the corona virus.
And I am really worried that the next time a flu virus hits that we will be forced to mask up, maybe even goggle up. They are trying to make us live in fear...



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by rivercat » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:06 pm

News flash. 116 workers on a Big Sky construction site test positive....and NONE are symptomatic. With all the asymptomatic infections being discovered, the actual mortality rate is estimated well below 1%. Now considering that the great majority of the deaths are in the elderly, the mortality rate for non-elderly individuals is around 0.05% or less. If you remove those who have existing underlying conditions (lung or heart conditions, diabetes, obesity, immune system problems), the mortality rate for healthy, young and middle aged individuals is probably 10x less (<0.005%).

It is insane to not recognize the susceptible individuals in society, do all we can to protect them from contracting Covid AND let the rest of the population go about life as usual. I don't have a problem wearing a mask and employing best practices to limit the spread. The cost and disruption is small compared to potential benefits.

I think the response we see to Covid is corrupted by "political correctness". We don't approach controlling the pandemic based on protecting those that are more likely to die if they are infected. That would be labeling and separating based on age, health, obesity, etc. Those people would be treated differently, God forbid. So the response is to half ass try to protect everyone at huge expense instead of really protecting the vulnerable and limiting the disruption to everyone.

Or I could be wrong, but I doubt it!


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by LCH » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by TomCat88 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:04 pm

LCH wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm
So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by rivercat » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm
So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.
The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.


"...get in 21 personnel and pound people and take their souls and have fun doing that..." coach Choate

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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by rivercat » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:29 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:04 pm
LCH wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm
So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.
And your point is?

LCH was responding to my post where I say I have no problem with wearing a mask and that we all should abide by best practices. I'll go further and state that those spouting liberty over wearing a mask are selfish fools.

My point is that the COVID virus is not deadly for the vast majority of the population.


"...get in 21 personnel and pound people and take their souls and have fun doing that..." coach Choate

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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by codecat » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:42 pm

Cataholic wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:08 pm
seataccat wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:50 pm
seataccat wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:49 am
catatac wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:34 am
The Butcher wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:22 am
The small local college in my town started testing athletes for the fall season. So far they have over 30 positive cases, and not all athletes are in town yet. :(
Doesn't surprise me. I'm sticking with my theory that half the country currently has, or has had this thing.
In that case we will reach herd immunity in about another two weeks and the death numbers will drop to a trickle. I suppose we'll know if your right very soon.
What??? Then that would mean that Trump was right about “this eventually going away”? Hmmm... maybe his handling wasn’t so bad after all.
Yep, in two weeks if it all goes away we'll know Trump was right. In the mean time everyone is playing along with the hoax like Herman Cain.
Pretty f-ing classy Seattacat.

By the way, I never said it was a hoax. I have maintained in multiple posts that it is very dangerous to older people. I have also thought that more people have been infected than we realize and hope we are moving to herd immunity. You seemed to share that hope as well, but just my mention of Trump causes you to lash out. You have a bad case of TDS.
seataccat is RACIST!


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freedom, and seriously erodes the primary constitutional freedom of free enterprise.

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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by LCH » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:08 pm

Basically then rivercat we agree. The only thing I would say is that among people tested (which includes sentinel testing) the rates of positive cases and the rate of death hold. I agree that the numbers may not project to the entire population, however at least 40% of our population has a pre- existing condition of diabetes,cancer,heart disease, or obesity. I don't want to shut down society again and if people just stop being stupid we shouldn't have to.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by rivercat » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:18 pm

LCH wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:08 pm
Basically then rivercat we agree. The only thing I would say is that among people tested (which includes sentinel testing) the rates of positive cases and the rate of death hold. I agree that the numbers may not project to the entire population, however at least 40% of our population has a pre- existing condition of diabetes,cancer,heart disease, or obesity. I don't want to shut down society again and if people just stop being stupid we shouldn't have to.
We're in agreement that we as members of the human race have a responsibility to our fellow man (& woman). Where the final statistics fall will be interesting. Having a BS in microbiology from MSU, I would love to be back in epidemiology class in a year or two.


"...get in 21 personnel and pound people and take their souls and have fun doing that..." coach Choate

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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by TomCat88 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:35 pm

rivercat wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:29 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:04 pm
LCH wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm
So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.
And your point is?

LCH was responding to my post where I say I have no problem with wearing a mask and that we all should abide by best practices. I'll go further and state that those spouting liberty over wearing a mask are selfish fools.

My point is that the COVID virus is not deadly for the vast majority of the population.
He mentioned wearing a mask, so I was busting him with this article. I agree, and I think the entire scientific community agrees, that Covid isn't deadly for the vast majority of the population. I think that's been known for quite a while, hasn't it? I'm not sure why you're pointing that out.


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