Big Sky Conference Football: 2012 Spring Power Rankings

[TomCat88]

Well. A-hem. I'll bet the first 5 takers a case of beer that UM makes the playoffs this year.

I'm in.

Haha, you trying to win that money back from last year?

OK, that makes two. One person PM'd me. Now I need to remind you guys that UM plays an all FCS schedule this year, so a 7-4 record will almost certainly get them in the playoffs.

I know this is probably a bad bet, just want to see them have a down year.

I understand.

On another note it's funny how people either wish UM to have a bad year that they look for all the reasons why they might, while others are so afraid UM will have another good year that they're afraid to point out reasons they won't. One thing is for sure and that's that it's hard to have a clear enough mind about the Cats and Griz to give an objective opinion on your outlook for either.

I think the common mistake folks hoping for a Griz downfall make is they put too much weight in the lack of experience their new starters have and not the talent they have. UM always has lots of talent, it's just a question of whether or not that talent is as talented as what they're replacing. They replace McSurdy and Shaw with Tripp and Coyle. Not bad. They replace Johnson, Lisowski, McCord, McKnight, Waldhauser, Fetherston, Sambrano, Moutra, Opperud, etc. with some guys that we'll probably be very familiar with (for better or worse) this fall.

Then there's the folks that just don't want to get burned by getting their hopes up, so they just tell themselves and everyone else that UM is going to kick ass, because they almost always do. Not a bad move, I guess, but that's probably not what they really believe.

[gtapp]

Well. A-hem. I'll bet the first 5 takers a case of beer that UM makes the playoffs this year.

I'm in.

Haha, you trying to win that money back from last year?

OK, that makes two. One person PM'd me. Now I need to remind you guys that UM plays an all FCS schedule this year, so a 7-4 record will almost certainly get them in the playoffs.

I know this is probably a bad bet, just want to see them have a down year.

I understand.

On another note it's funny how people either wish UM to have a bad year that they look for all the reasons why they might, while others are so afraid UM will have another good year that they're afraid to point out reasons they won't. One thing is for sure and that's that it's hard to have a clear enough mind about the Cats and Griz to give an objective opinion on your outlook for either.

I think the common mistake folks hoping for a Griz downfall make is they put too much weight in the lack of experience their new starters have and not the talent they have. UM always has lots of talent, it's just a question of whether or not that talent is as talented as what they're replacing. They replace McSurdy and Shaw with Tripp and Coyle. Not bad. They replace Johnson, Lisowski, McCord, McKnight, Waldhauser, Fetherston, Sambrano, Moutra, Opperud, etc. with some guys that we'll probably be very familiar with (for better or worse) this fall.

Then there's the folks that just don't want to get burned by getting their hopes up, so they just tell themselves and everyone else that UM is going to kick ass, because they almost always do. Not a bad move, I guess, but that's probably not what they really believe.

Or, two other possibilities.

1. After 20 years of dominance you choose to not argue with success.
2. We actually study their roster year to year and make an educated/informed guess (it is still a guess but one based on some research)).

[TomCat88]

Well. A-hem. I'll bet the first 5 takers a case of beer that UM makes the playoffs this year.

I'm in.

Haha, you trying to win that money back from last year?

OK, that makes two. One person PM'd me. Now I need to remind you guys that UM plays an all FCS schedule this year, so a 7-4 record will almost certainly get them in the playoffs.

I know this is probably a bad bet, just want to see them have a down year.

I understand.

On another note it's funny how people either wish UM to have a bad year that they look for all the reasons why they might, while others are so afraid UM will have another good year that they're afraid to point out reasons they won't. One thing is for sure and that's that it's hard to have a clear enough mind about the Cats and Griz to give an objective opinion on your outlook for either.

I think the common mistake folks hoping for a Griz downfall make is they put too much weight in the lack of experience their new starters have and not the talent they have. UM always has lots of talent, it's just a question of whether or not that talent is as talented as what they're replacing. They replace McSurdy and Shaw with Tripp and Coyle. Not bad. They replace Johnson, Lisowski, McCord, McKnight, Waldhauser, Fetherston, Sambrano, Moutra, Opperud, etc. with some guys that we'll probably be very familiar with (for better or worse) this fall.

Then there's the folks that just don't want to get burned by getting their hopes up, so they just tell themselves and everyone else that UM is going to kick ass, because they almost always do. Not a bad move, I guess, but that's probably not what they really believe.

Or, two other possibilities.

1. After 20 years of dominance you choose to not argue with success.
2. We actually study their roster year to year and make an educated/informed guess (it is still a guess but one based on some research)).

No. 1 for sure, but that's basically what I already said. No. 2, uhh, I haven't seen too many of those. I think you're sliding into another dimension of not really believing what you're saying. Because if you studied UM this year, you'd have to come away not having much of a clue, then revert back to No. 1. That's my guess!

[Silenoz]

Yes, both coordinators are new

And saying 7-4 at best is pretty ridiculous... I think most of you will agree with that

UM had a new HC and coordinators in 2010, and struggled to 7-4, and didn't lose nearly as many starters. This year, the Griz face 3 top 10-15 teams in EWU, MSU and App State, and play AT Weber, where the Griz have lost the last two against the Wildcats.

Preseason rankings mean nothing. That same UM team was #1 in week 2. And 2010 had the worst QB play at UM in decades, an abysmal turnover margin (6 turnovers against EWU alone), and laughable special teams. Three things that are usually UM strengths. And yet we still barely lost 3 of those4 games.

Not saying we won't got 6-5, or 7-4, or possibly worse if JJ is gone. But we have 6 home games in Wa-Griz. We haven't lost by more than 17 (to an FCS team) since the '90s. Weber is dealing with turmoil itself. 9-2 or 8-3 is more than do-able


Where's my $50? I'd offer double or nothing on this year's matchup, but I figure it would really be nothing or nothing

[gtapp]

Well. A-hem. I'll bet the first 5 takers a case of beer that UM makes the playoffs this year.

I'm in.

Haha, you trying to win that money back from last year?

OK, that makes two. One person PM'd me. Now I need to remind you guys that UM plays an all FCS schedule this year, so a 7-4 record will almost certainly get them in the playoffs.

I know this is probably a bad bet, just want to see them have a down year.

I understand.

On another note it's funny how people either wish UM to have a bad year that they look for all the reasons why they might, while others are so afraid UM will have another good year that they're afraid to point out reasons they won't. One thing is for sure and that's that it's hard to have a clear enough mind about the Cats and Griz to give an objective opinion on your outlook for either.

I think the common mistake folks hoping for a Griz downfall make is they put too much weight in the lack of experience their new starters have and not the talent they have. UM always has lots of talent, it's just a question of whether or not that talent is as talented as what they're replacing. They replace McSurdy and Shaw with Tripp and Coyle. Not bad. They replace Johnson, Lisowski, McCord, McKnight, Waldhauser, Fetherston, Sambrano, Moutra, Opperud, etc. with some guys that we'll probably be very familiar with (for better or worse) this fall.

Then there's the folks that just don't want to get burned by getting their hopes up, so they just tell themselves and everyone else that UM is going to kick ass, because they almost always do. Not a bad move, I guess, but that's probably not what they really believe.

Or, two other possibilities.

1. After 20 years of dominance you choose to not argue with success.
2. We actually study their roster year to year and make an educated/informed guess (it is still a guess but one based on some research)).

No. 1 for sure, but that's basically what I already said. No. 2, uhh, I haven't seen too many of those. I think you're sliding into another dimension of not really believing what you're saying. Because if you studied UM this year, you'd have to come away not having much of a clue, then revert back to No. 1. That's my guess!

I definetely fall into point number 1. When I listed number 2 I was not refering to me but there are many posters on this site (Cat and griz) that spend a reasonable amount of time researching our opponents and their guess is probably more based on that research than when the rest of us guess!

[LongTimeCatFan]

I just like buying beer for such a nice guy.

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[LongTimeCatFan]

Actually, I'm counting on NCAA sanctions because there is no way UM goes 6-5.

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[allcat]

Actually, I'm counting on NCAA sanctions because there is no way UM goes 6-5.

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If there are sanctions, I think next year.

[TomCat88]

Actually, I'm counting on NCAA sanctions because there is no way UM goes 6-5.

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Umm, oh yeah. I forgot about that. Guess I should've researched this bet a little better.

[WSUWILDCAT]

Yes, both coordinators are new

And saying 7-4 at best is pretty ridiculous... I think most of you will agree with that

UM had a new HC and coordinators in 2010, and struggled to 7-4, and didn't lose nearly as many starters. This year, the Griz face 3 top 10-15 teams in EWU, MSU and App State, and play AT Weber, where the Griz have lost the last two against the Wildcats.

Preseason rankings mean nothing. That same UM team was #1 in week 2. And 2010 had the worst QB play at UM in decades, an abysmal turnover margin (6 turnovers against EWU alone), and laughable special teams. Three things that are usually UM strengths. And yet we still barely lost 3 of those4 games.

Not saying we won't got 6-5, or 7-4, or possibly worse if JJ is gone. But we have 6 home games in Wa-Griz. We haven't lost by more than 17 (to an FCS team) since the '90s. Weber is dealing with turmoil itself. 9-2 or 8-3 is more than do-able


Where's my $50? I'd offer double or nothing on this year's matchup, but I figure it would really be nothing or nothing

I wouldnt say turmoil at Weber, the only thing that happened at Weber was the loss of a head coach who got replaced like a week later Weber's attitude toward that incident is That's that lets move on, If Weber's players buy into Sear's system and come out wanting to make a statement, added to the favorable schedule, Weber is more than capable of going 9-2 this year. Likely? probably not but it's not out of the realm of possibilities

[allcat]

Yes, both coordinators are new

And saying 7-4 at best is pretty ridiculous... I think most of you will agree with that

UM had a new HC and coordinators in 2010, and struggled to 7-4, and didn't lose nearly as many starters. This year, the Griz face 3 top 10-15 teams in EWU, MSU and App State, and play AT Weber, where the Griz have lost the last two against the Wildcats.

Preseason rankings mean nothing. That same UM team was #1 in week 2. And 2010 had the worst QB play at UM in decades, an abysmal turnover margin (6 turnovers against EWU alone), and laughable special teams. Three things that are usually UM strengths. And yet we still barely lost 3 of those4 games.

Not saying we won't got 6-5, or 7-4, or possibly worse if JJ is gone. But we have 6 home games in Wa-Griz. We haven't lost by more than 17 (to an FCS team) since the '90s. Weber is dealing with turmoil itself. 9-2 or 8-3 is more than do-able


Where's my $50? I'd offer double or nothing on this year's matchup, but I figure it would really be nothing or nothing

I wouldnt say turmoil at Weber, the only thing that happened at Weber was the loss of a head coach who got replaced like a week later Weber's attitude toward that incident is That's that lets move on, If Weber's players buy into Sear's system and come out wanting to make a statement, added to the favorable schedule, Weber is more than capable of going 9-2 this year. Likely? probably not but it's not out of the realm of possibilities

Not likely, even if they buy in to the system, the personel have to fit the system and you have to execute. It will be tough for upperclassmen to adjust to a new system. The good news for you is that I think McBride taught the fundamentals very well.

[WSUWILDCAT]

Yes, both coordinators are new

And saying 7-4 at best is pretty ridiculous... I think most of you will agree with that

UM had a new HC and coordinators in 2010, and struggled to 7-4, and didn't lose nearly as many starters. This year, the Griz face 3 top 10-15 teams in EWU, MSU and App State, and play AT Weber, where the Griz have lost the last two against the Wildcats.

Preseason rankings mean nothing. That same UM team was #1 in week 2. And 2010 had the worst QB play at UM in decades, an abysmal turnover margin (6 turnovers against EWU alone), and laughable special teams. Three things that are usually UM strengths. And yet we still barely lost 3 of those4 games.

Not saying we won't got 6-5, or 7-4, or possibly worse if JJ is gone. But we have 6 home games in Wa-Griz. We haven't lost by more than 17 (to an FCS team) since the '90s. Weber is dealing with turmoil itself. 9-2 or 8-3 is more than do-able


Where's my $50? I'd offer double or nothing on this year's matchup, but I figure it would really be nothing or nothing

I wouldnt say turmoil at Weber, the only thing that happened at Weber was the loss of a head coach who got replaced like a week later Weber's attitude toward that incident is That's that lets move on, If Weber's players buy into Sear's system and come out wanting to make a statement, added to the favorable schedule, Weber is more than capable of going 9-2 this year. Likely? probably not but it's not out of the realm of possibilities

Not likely, even if they buy in to the system, the personel have to fit the system and you have to execute. It will be tough for upperclassmen to adjust to a new system. The good news for you is that I think McBride taught the fundamentals very well.

In Reality, I see Weber finishing either 6-5, 7-4 or 8-3 this year. Weber has EWU, Cal Poly and UM at home, and I believe they will beat at least one of those teams, and our hardest road game is Southern Utah. I cant wait till football season starts, I am very excited to see how this season shakes out

[LongTimeCatFan]

Actually, I'm counting on NCAA sanctions because there is no way UM goes 6-5.

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If there are sanctions, I think next year.

The investigation should be over at the end of this month. Punishment should be doled out by August. This bet could be decided before the season even starts.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

[catatac]

Well. A-hem. I'll bet the first 5 takers a case of beer that UM makes the playoffs this year.

I'm in.

Haha, you trying to win that money back from last year?

OK, that makes two. One person PM'd me. Now I need to remind you guys that UM plays an all FCS schedule this year, so a 7-4 record will almost certainly get them in the playoffs.

I know this is probably a bad bet, just want to see them have a down year.

I understand.

On another note it's funny how people either wish UM to have a bad year that they look for all the reasons why they might, while others are so afraid UM will have another good year that they're afraid to point out reasons they won't. One thing is for sure and that's that it's hard to have a clear enough mind about the Cats and Griz to give an objective opinion on your outlook for either.

I think the common mistake folks hoping for a Griz downfall make is they put too much weight in the lack of experience their new starters have and not the talent they have. UM always has lots of talent, it's just a question of whether or not that talent is as talented as what they're replacing. They replace McSurdy and Shaw with Tripp and Coyle. Not bad. They replace Johnson, Lisowski, McCord, McKnight, Waldhauser, Fetherston, Sambrano, Moutra, Opperud, etc. with some guys that we'll probably be very familiar with (for better or worse) this fall.

Then there's the folks that just don't want to get burned by getting their hopes up, so they just tell themselves and everyone else that UM is going to kick ass, because they almost always do. Not a bad move, I guess, but that's probably not what they really believe.

Or, two other possibilities.

1. After 20 years of dominance you choose to not argue with success.
2. We actually study their roster year to year and make an educated/informed guess (it is still a guess but one based on some research)).

I think Tom and Gary bring up some good points... begs some questions in my mind. Are the Cats still considerably behind the Griz in terms of overall talent and depth in the program? If so... why? Have we not been fairly even with them in recruiting over the past 5 years? We've had good continuity and we all know Ash knows how to run a program. Is our strength and conditioning program up to par? Isn't our entire coaching staff as good as what the Griz have for the most part?

So if we had just lost 10 starters on Defense, 5 or 6 more on offense, including several players that are now in the NFL, our AD, Head Coach, and both the O and D coordinator, possibly losing our star QB, facing a difficult beginning schedule, and lastly dealing with all the turmoil during Spring drills, and possibly facing penalties by the NCAA... would everyone be saying, "Yes, but the Cats still have a good shot at winning the Big Sky, and doing worse than 8-3 is unlikely."? I don't think so. So what is it? I guess it must go back to recruiting... and maybe we haven't been as equal with them as we think over the past five years. We'll see how this year plays out, but if they go 8-3 or better and are a solid playoff team, I think that will basically reinforce that their talent level is still considerably better than us. My $.02.

[TomCat88]

I think Tom and Gary bring up some good points... begs some questions in my mind. Are the Cats still considerably behind the Griz in terms of overall talent and depth in the program? If so... why? Have we not been fairly even with them in recruiting over the past 5 years? We've had good continuity and we all know Ash knows how to run a program. Is our strength and conditioning program up to par? Isn't our entire coaching staff as good as what the Griz have for the most part?

So if we had just lost 10 starters on Defense, 5 or 6 more on offense, including several players that are now in the NFL, our AD, Head Coach, and both the O and D coordinator, possibly losing our star QB, facing a difficult beginning schedule, and lastly dealing with all the turmoil during Spring drills, and possibly facing penalties by the NCAA... would everyone be saying, "Yes, but the Cats still have a good shot at winning the Big Sky, and doing worse than 8-3 is unlikely."? I don't think so. So what is it? I guess it must go back to recruiting... and maybe we haven't been as equal with them as we think over the past five years. We'll see how this year plays out, but if they go 8-3 or better and are a solid playoff team, I think that will basically reinforce that their talent level is still considerably better than us. My $.02.

It's hard to say with a known amount of certainty since recruiting is an odd animal and we don't know much about a class until 2-3 years go by. A simple answer would be that MSU is still a little behind UM in that area due to their facility, fan base and recent winning tradition still being larger than MSU's. Their other edge is recruiting the NW. They tend to win recruiting battles there (see John Kanongata'a) against us due to their proximity. UM is sort of boxing MSU out really well for NW players. A couple more years of winning and another addition to the stadium will take another bite out of the first issue. As for the second issue the only way to negate that is to continue to hit Texas. I'd rather have UM 200 miles south of MSU than 200 miles west.

[ilovethecats]

my take: the griz will eventually be down. no program in the history of sports, college or pro, has ever remained on the top forever. in the 90's there were people who thought nebraska would win every title until the earth explodes. it just doesn't work that way. as much as guys like hammer like to think the griz will always dominate because "they're the griz"....it's just not sound logic. that said....i'll believe it when i see it. every year we hear the same thing. every year the griz are "going to have a down year". and every year they exceed expectations. 2 years ago we thought that might be it. they missed the playoffs. then they follow it up by embarrassing us at home and rolling in the playoffs losing a close one in the semifinals. like i said....i'll believe it when i see it. griz are still the team to beat.

[TomCat88]

my take: the griz will eventually be down. no program in the history of sports, college or pro, has ever remained on the top forever. in the 90's there were people who thought nebraska would win every title until the earth explodes. it just doesn't work that way. as much as guys like hammer like to think the griz will always dominate because "they're the griz"....it's just not sound logic. that said....i'll believe it when i see it. every year we hear the same thing. every year the griz are "going to have a down year". and every year they exceed expectations. 2 years ago we thought that might be it. they missed the playoffs. then they follow it up by embarrassing us at home and rolling in the playoffs losing a close one in the semifinals. like i said....i'll believe it when i see it. griz are still the team to beat.

The FCS is a different animal than the BCS and NFL IMO. UM and ASU and maybe a few others are different because of the huge disparity between the support they get and the rest (especially UM vs. the Big Sky) get. I think teams like NDSU and MSU are on the rise and will probably get there, but are still a few years away. Unlike FCS there are numerous BCS teams that get huge support that parrellels one another. PSU, UF, Tenn, Bama, ND, OSU, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, FSU, Clemson, LSU, Georgia and others, which bring about some parity among those top teams. The NFL is built for parity.

I think we just saw a down period for UM. They went 7-4 and got off to a rough start in 2011 (they were 9-7 for a stretch from 2009 title game to SSU in 2011) appearing set to finish 8-3 and bow out of the playoffs early, but they caught fire at the right time. They will have down years, but few will be able to predict them.

[grizcountry420]

my take: the griz will eventually be down. no program in the history of sports, college or pro, has ever remained on the top forever. in the 90's there were people who thought nebraska would win every title until the earth explodes. it just doesn't work that way. as much as guys like hammer like to think the griz will always dominate because "they're the griz"....it's just not sound logic. that said....i'll believe it when i see it. every year we hear the same thing. every year the griz are "going to have a down year". and every year they exceed expectations. 2 years ago we thought that might be it. they missed the playoffs. then they follow it up by embarrassing us at home and rolling in the playoffs losing a close one in the semifinals. like i said....i'll believe it when i see it. griz are still the team to beat.

The FCS is a different animal than the BCS and NFL IMO. UM and ASU and maybe a few others are different because of the huge disparity between the support they get and the rest (especially UM vs. the Big Sky) get. I think teams like NDSU and MSU are on the rise and will probably get there, but are still a few years away. Unlike FCS there are numerous BCS teams that get huge support that parrellels one another. PSU, UF, Tenn, Bama, ND, OSU, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, FSU, Clemson, LSU, Georgia and others, which bring about some parity among those top teams. The NFL is built for parity.

I think we just saw a down period for UM. They went 7-4 and got off to a rough start in 2011 (they were 9-7 for a stretch from 2009 title game to SSU in 2011) appearing set to finish 8-3 and bow out of the playoffs early, but they caught fire at the right time. They will have down years, but few will be able to predict them.

Both of you guys, excellent posts!

[Cat Grad]

This fall is going to be--another football season My thoughts reflect this guys: http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnf ... /index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm glad I don't have to worry about the performance of of a bunch of 17-21 year-old kids, but I like the teachers/coaches we have in Bozo.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Yes, both coordinators are new

And saying 7-4 at best is pretty ridiculous... I think most of you will agree with that

UM had a new HC and coordinators in 2010, and struggled to 7-4, and didn't lose nearly as many starters. This year, the Griz face 3 top 10-15 teams in EWU, MSU and App State, and play AT Weber, where the Griz have lost the last two against the Wildcats.

Preseason rankings mean nothing. That same UM team was #1 in week 2. And 2010 had the worst QB play at UM in decades, an abysmal turnover margin (6 turnovers against EWU alone), and laughable special teams. Three things that are usually UM strengths. And yet we still barely lost 3 of those4 games.

Not saying we won't got 6-5, or 7-4, or possibly worse if JJ is gone. But we have 6 home games in Wa-Griz. We haven't lost by more than 17 (to an FCS team) since the '90s. Weber is dealing with turmoil itself. 9-2 or 8-3 is more than do-able


Where's my $50? I'd offer double or nothing on this year's matchup, but I figure it would really be nothing or nothing

I wouldnt say turmoil at Weber, the only thing that happened at Weber was the loss of a head coach who got replaced like a week later Weber's attitude toward that incident is That's that lets move on, If Weber's players buy into Sear's system and come out wanting to make a statement, added to the favorable schedule, Weber is more than capable of going 9-2 this year. Likely? probably not but it's not out of the realm of possibilities

9-2 is never possible with a Sears D. Good luck.