Facts Vs. Narrative

[Colter_Nuanez]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

In case you didn't see this -Ryan Tootell on several of these subjects
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KeFvz ... 77d09c4f71

[Cledus]

On one hand the Griz tout the importance of WA Griz and how hard it is to win there but on the other hand they completely dismiss the fact that hardly anybody wins in Bozeman either. I've read and listened to a lot of Griz chat so far and it's rarely been mentioned.

Because in Missoula it’s still 2000 and the Mecca is the only stadium that provides a lot of noise and a hostile environment.

Clearly. Why is this even a question?

[BOBCATBORN]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

In case you didn't see this -Ryan Tootell on several of these subjects
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KeFvz ... 77d09c4f71

Maybe I missed something but what I took from this podcast:

Yes, those are stats - no they don’t matter.
- Missoula got better and the cats got worse (not that the competitor was better than what they had over the hill). SFA was far and above better than sdsu and usd - which did get acknowledged but then went on to say the cats weren’t playing better?? We easily beat SFA
- home field doesn’t matter much because we’ve played this year? I don’t get this
- the home record was played off as doesn’t matter much (39-2) because the competition I guess?
- Bobby is the better coach and this team is significantly better than what they were in the last meetings because Bobby is back
- the griz made a bunch of mistakes and still made it a close game (no mention that we left points on the field and also could have scored on the last drive).

I appreciate the content but honestly nothing seemed to be “important” unless it was a Gris thing.
-

[iaafan]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

In case you didn't see this -Ryan Tootell on several of these subjects
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KeFvz ... 77d09c4f71

Maybe I missed something but what I took from this podcast:

Yes, those are stats - no they don’t matter.
- Missoula got better and the cats got worse (not that the competitor was better than what they had over the hill). SFA was far and above better than sdsu and usd - which did get acknowledged but then went on to say the cats weren’t playing better?? We easily beat SFA
- home field doesn’t matter much because we’ve played this year? I don’t get this
- the home record was played off as doesn’t matter much (39-2) because the competition I guess?
- Bobby is the better coach and this team is significantly better than what they were in the last meetings because Bobby is back
- the griz made a bunch of mistakes and still made it a close game (no mention that we left points on the field and also could have scored on the last drive).

I appreciate the content but honestly nothing seemed to be “important” unless it was a Gris thing.
-

Everything, everywhere is like this. Did no one see Gilman yank Brott’s facemask on the long TD? The Cats are getting zero respect in the media. At least the LUCKY blocked FG and pick 6 were legal plays. The UC call against Eiden was another bad call. The guys helmet was already off his head and that probably cost us 4 points cuz it was going to be third and nine. ??????

[84CatGrad]

Let's face it. After Saturday, one fan base will be right, and one will be wrong.

[iaafan]

Let's face it. After Saturday, one fan base will be right, and one will be wrong.

The Gris fans will say double or nothing again if they lose.

[TomCat88]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

[ilovethecats]

This is all just par for the course. We’ll sit back and listen to griz fans talking about how much better they are and how lucky we were to beat them. They have the same arrogance they did in 2001 except with the success.

The Cats will handle business Saturday like they always do at home. We’ll listen to griz fans saying despite going 0-2 they’re obviously the better team. Sadly we’ll have to listen to that nonsense all the way to Nashville. And I already know what the narrative will be then but like all of this, it won’t matter.

[84CatGrad]

"After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here)."

Nice work there.

[cat_stache_fever]

Here's my greatest hits of gris fans' musings over the last 4 weeks:

-Prior cat/griz, SDSU wasn't very good and Cats lost to them. Fast foward 2 weeks, SDSU is an excellent team; a thoroughbred that the mighty gris destroyed at home.
-Cats played a perfect game in Missoula but still only won by 3. Plus the gris had a TD called back by a bad call.
-prior Cat/gris, WaGris is the most brutal away atmosphere the Cats will see this year, plus the home team dominates this series lately. Fast forward 3 weeks: home field advantage doesn't matter; it's the playoffs stupid!
-Kyon Loud is back. The absence of this ONE player alone is the reason the gris lost in Missoula.
-beating a team twice in a year is hard....
-the Dakota teams are good teams. They just got overwhelmed by playing a great team on the road(no irony here)
-Bobcat Stadium is nothing like WaGris. A couple hours later: there should be an NCAA rule allotting more tickets to visiting fans; this isn't fair!

Last but not least,
-Bobby was most definitely was holding something back last game. He's gonna pull out all the stops THIS Saturday...

All these make a ton of sense...if you're not the thinkin type

[OldGriz]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

MSU isn’t playing very good? LOL. Sandbagger extraordinaire!

What next? Here’s what’s next:

The Cats are favored in this game for good reason. The Cats will probably win. However, IF the Griz defense executes at the level they exhibited against SDSU & USD, and IF the Griz win the turnover battle, AND, IF the Griz succesfully complete one trick play, the Griz win. That’s a lot of ifs. It’s why the Cats are rightly favored. But if the Griz do it, then they’re the better team.

[Cats92]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

MSU isn’t playing very good? LOL. Sandbagger extraordinaire!

What next? Here’s what’s next:

The Cats are favored in this game for good reason. The Cats will probably win. However, IF the Griz defense executes at the level they exhibited against SDSU & USD, and IF the Griz win the turnover battle, AND, IF the Griz succesfully complete one trick play, the Griz win. That’s a lot of ifs. It’s why the Cats are rightly favored. But if the Griz do it, then they’re the better team.

Could be wrong here but I think you’re misunderstanding what tomcat is getting at

[OldGriz]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

MSU isn’t playing very good? LOL. Sandbagger extraordinaire!

What next? Here’s what’s next:

The Cats are favored in this game for good reason. The Cats will probably win. However, IF the Griz defense executes at the level they exhibited against SDSU & USD, and IF the Griz win the turnover battle, AND, IF the Griz succesfully complete one trick play, the Griz win. That’s a lot of ifs. It’s why the Cats are rightly favored. But if the Griz do it, then they’re the better team.

Could be wrong here but I think you’re misunderstanding what tomcat is getting at

I easily could have misunderstood. MSU is playing great. He must have been saying there’s a narrative out there to the contrary?

[catsrback76]

I'm hearing a lot of happy talk and narrative spinning coming out of Missoula the last few days. Things like this:

"The Griz have flipped a switch since the first Brawl."

"The Griz were just over-confident last time."

"The homefield isn't as big of a deal anymore since the road team won in November."

"It's super hard to beat a team twice in one season."

"All the pressure is on MSU because they're favored."

But what I'm not hearing are any objective arguments. So here are some examples:

1) The Cats just beat this Montana team three weeks ago in their home stadium, where they rarely lose.

2) Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU).

3) Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (and winning by bigger margins in round 2).

4) UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program.

5) This UM team has not played in a road environment that is even remotely close to what they will face on Saturday.

6) The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since Rob Ash was the head coach, over ten year ago.

7) Hauck 2.0 has not won in Bozeman, period-- he's lost by 34, 34, and 23.

8 ) The betting line opened with MSU favored by 5.5 points.

I am guessing that behind all the bluster and bravado, Griz fans are pretty scared about what's likeliest to happen on Saturday. If they're not, they aren't paying attention.

This is an outstanding post and I'm going to use it for talking points with Tootell today when we go live on Nuanez Now at 4 p.m. Not kidding, I love it!

In case you didn't see this -Ryan Tootell on several of these subjects
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KeFvz ... 77d09c4f71

Spotify doesn’t work in Europe.

[Cledus]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

MSU isn’t playing very good? LOL. Sandbagger extraordinaire!

What next? Here’s what’s next:

The Cats are favored in this game for good reason. The Cats will probably win. However, IF the Griz defense executes at the level they exhibited against SDSU & USD, and IF the Griz win the turnover battle, AND, IF the Griz succesfully complete one trick play, the Griz win. That’s a lot of ifs. It’s why the Cats are rightly favored. But if the Griz do it, then they’re the better team.

If we assign a 50% probability to each condition you mentioned, and all of them must evaluate to true in order for the grizzlies to win, then that means they have exactly 12.5% chance of winning this Saturday.

[Joe Bobcat]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

I don't know what's next Tom. You lost me at "the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"
How can I trust anything you wrote after that? Your grasp of history is

[tdub]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

I don't know what's next Tom. You lost me at "the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"
How can I trust anything you wrote after that? Your grasp of history is

It’s right on par with your grasp of classic movies!

[Joe Bobcat]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

I don't know what's next Tom. You lost me at "the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"
How can I trust anything you wrote after that? Your grasp of history is

It’s right on par with your grasp of classic movies!

Oh oh what am I missing here

[Joe Bobcat]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

I don't know what's next Tom. You lost me at "the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"
How can I trust anything you wrote after that? Your grasp of history is

It’s right on par with your grasp of classic movies!

Oh oh what am I missing here

Oh crap it just came to me. I woke up after a couple of hours of sleep and couldn't get back to sleep.
I should've stayed off the interwebs. My apologies Bluto RIP

[cats2506]

If the season just started two weeks ago and UM had defeated SDSU and USD the first two games the way they did and MSU had defeated Yale and SFA the way they did, then you'd have to think that the Griz are playing better than the Cats.

If you're a Cat fan, you can take solace in the fact that MSU didn't look all that great against Oregon or SDSU and yet it still went undefeated the rest of the way, won the BSC and is in the nat'l semis. The Cats also didn't look all that great against Mercyhurst or Cal Poly, but they looked great in the games right after that.

It's been interesting this year because people have been in a big hurry to write MSU off or discount the success it's had.

After the Cats lost the first two games, it was a rebuilding year. (I'm on a "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" roll here).

Then I recall EWU was the worst team in the league when MSU beat them, but the Eagles proceeded to win their next three games.

Then the Cats were going to lose to NAU and fell behind 7-0 and it was over except they scored the next 34 points and then NAU wasn't good anymore even though they went into the last game of the season with a shot at making the playoffs.

Then MSU was going to struggle at UNC because the Bears had the best pass defense in the conference until Lamson threw for over 300 yards on them.

And then someone said Weber State has a good defense and MSU put up 66 on them.

Then MSU had to play the top two teams in the BSC the last two games but got a lucky Pick6 from Dowler to pull out those games.

Now -- two games after beating UM in Missoula -- MSU isn't playing very good and UM is playing great.

What next?

MSU isn’t playing very good? LOL. Sandbagger extraordinaire!

What next? Here’s what’s next:

The Cats are favored in this game for good reason. The Cats will probably win. However, IF the Griz defense executes at the level they exhibited against SDSU & USD, and IF the Griz win the turnover battle, AND, IF the Griz succesfully complete one trick play, the Griz win. That’s a lot of ifs. It’s why the Cats are rightly favored. But if the Griz do it, then they’re the better team.

If we assign a 50% probability to each condition you mentioned, and all of them must evaluate to true in order for the grizzlies to win, then that means they have exactly 12.5% chance of winning this Saturday.

confusing them with basic math