So is Weber sneaky?

[cats2506]

I will agree with TC that WSU defense may be "good". Based solely on a subjective eye test. Their offense is atrocious. I don't think that their D is "good enough" to seriously give MSU O many problems. Godley is a good back too, I don't think he played against um. They got a pretty good kicker too.

WSU has always been my second favorite BSC team, It is really sad what they have become since Hill left.

[TomCat88]

You guys are all such a bunch of kidders! I get it now. Ya got me!! You really got me!

Congrats, you've turned about 3 threads into nearly unreadable.

My apologies. Just trying to lighten the mood.

Anyway, yes, I’m still in the wsu defense is good. Not MSU/NDSU good. But good in the sense that if their offense and STs were better, it wouldn’t look I'm trying to make a hot take.

Vs UM their offense fumbled on the first play. I’m sure the defense was thinking ‘here we go again’ and it showed as they gave up a few gash plays and fell behind 28-3 just a couple minutes into the second quarter. 17 plays, ~240 yards. That’s the definition of terrible.

After that they settled down and only allowed 10 points over the next 30 minutes with main units playing on both sides. WSU outscored UM in this stretch 14-10. 28 plays ~140 yards. That’s not great but it’s good. The most impressive and important part of this is that UM hadn’t put them away during that stretch and you know they want to do that to start the second half. WSU held them scoreless and held Ah Yat to 6-17 67 yards during a stretch from mid 2nd quarter to early 4th quarter. Was able to get it to 31-17 in the meantime. That’s a good, resilient effort against a good offense trying to finish WSU off.

The backups played the last 12 minutes so I’m not counting that but wsu didn’t allow any points.

In summary, a real rough start that was partially due to the offense and then a very good middle 30 minutes, then garbage time that was basically irrelevant to the point of discussion.

I’m expecting to do a story on Weber this week and I plan on trying to track down a player from MSU’s 1983 team to get his perspective.

[TomCat88]

I will agree with TC that WSU defense may be "good". Based solely on a subjective eye test. Their offense is atrocious. I don't think that their D is "good enough" to seriously give MSU O many problems. Godley is a good back too, I don't think he played against um. They got a pretty good kicker too.

WSU has always been my second favorite BSC team, It is really sad what they have become since Hill left.

Nor do I. I think it'll be a lopsided game. Their offense plays right into MSU's defense and that just makes it that much more difficult for WSU's defense. Add in that WSU might be in 'mail-it-in' mode, and the game could get out of hand.

[RickRund]

I will agree with TC that WSU defense may be "good". Based solely on a subjective eye test. Their offense is atrocious. I don't think that their D is "good enough" to seriously give MSU O many problems. Godley is a good back too, I don't think he played against um. They got a pretty good kicker too.

WSU has always been my second favorite BSC team, It is really sad what they have become since Hill left.

Nor do I. I think it'll be a lopsided game. Their offense plays right into MSU's defense and that just makes it that much more difficult for WSU's defense. Add in that WSU might be in 'mail-it-in' mode, and the game could get out of hand.

And oldgris will say that they just weakened Weebs for us…

[CATSJUNKIE]

Cats will be wearing military camo uniforms this weekend for military appreciation game.

[DMMDCats]

So sneaky MSU needs extra help on the field this week:
https://montanastate.evenue.net/events/FOT

$500 per spot

Semper Fi

[TomCat88]

Cats will be wearing military camo uniforms this weekend for military appreciation game.

That’s because Veterans Day is on next Tuesday. It should be America’s biggest, most celebrated holiday.
That’s cool. I hope local businesses get involved.

[MrGoodKat]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

[TomCat88]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

Remove the two blowouts to two quality fbs teams and Weber is fifth in total D, run D and pass D out of 12 teams.

Their offense is second to last in scoring, last in offense. Their punting is last. The Thinking that their O and STs aren’t further hindering the D is hard for me to grasp.

You hear Vigen talk about playing complimentary football and this IMHO opinion is just the opposite of that.

Their STs gave up a safety and muffed a punt to allow for a 1 play, 2-yard TD drive vs EWU two weeks ago and the offense fumbled the ball away on the first play va UM.

[ClowderUp]

Over/under on the number of Weber long snaps sailing for a safety or Bobcat TD? I think it should be 0.5. Maybe 1.5.

[MrGoodKat]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

Remove the two blowouts to two quality fbs teams and Weber is fifth in total D, run D and pass D out of 12 teams.

Their offense is second to last in scoring, last in offense. Their punting is last. The Thinking that their O and STs aren’t further hindering the D is hard for me to grasp.

You hear Vigen talk about playing complimentary football and this IMHO opinion is just the opposite of that.

Their STs gave up a safety and muffed a punt to allow for a 1 play, 2-yard TD drive vs EWU two weeks ago and the offense fumbled the ball away on the first play va UM.

You don't need to remove the two FBS blowouts from my numbers, because I only included BSC results.

In conference games, Weber has allowed 22 touchdown drives. The average length of drive is 63. They have been put in bad positions a few times, but 18/22 touchdowns they allowed were drives of 50+.

I think two things are true: they don't play good complementary football AND their defense is bad.

[TomCat88]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

Remove the two blowouts to two quality fbs teams and Weber is fifth in total D, run D and pass D out of 12 teams.

Their offense is second to last in scoring, last in offense. Their punting is last. The Thinking that their O and STs aren’t further hindering the D is hard for me to grasp.

You hear Vigen talk about playing complimentary football and this IMHO opinion is just the opposite of that.

Their STs gave up a safety and muffed a punt to allow for a 1 play, 2-yard TD drive vs EWU two weeks ago and the offense fumbled the ball away on the first play va UM.

You don't need to remove the two FBS blowouts from my numbers, because I only included BSC results.

In conference games, Weber has allowed 22 touchdown drives. The average length of drive is 63. They have been put in bad positions a few times, but 18/22 touchdowns they allowed were drives of 50+.

I think two things are true: they don't play good complementary football AND their defense is bad.

I think we get a higher confidence when n=7 vs n=5.

Three of their five conference games were against three of the top four offenses in the league.

Also, wsu is slightly better (basically a dead heat) than UM in yards allowed per game vs FCS only. I also think that a team in the top five in the BSC is probably in the top 25% of the FCS.

[MrGoodKat]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

Remove the two blowouts to two quality fbs teams and Weber is fifth in total D, run D and pass D out of 12 teams.

Their offense is second to last in scoring, last in offense. Their punting is last. The Thinking that their O and STs aren’t further hindering the D is hard for me to grasp.

You hear Vigen talk about playing complimentary football and this IMHO opinion is just the opposite of that.

Their STs gave up a safety and muffed a punt to allow for a 1 play, 2-yard TD drive vs EWU two weeks ago and the offense fumbled the ball away on the first play va UM.

You don't need to remove the two FBS blowouts from my numbers, because I only included BSC results.

In conference games, Weber has allowed 22 touchdown drives. The average length of drive is 63. They have been put in bad positions a few times, but 18/22 touchdowns they allowed were drives of 50+.

I think two things are true: they don't play good complementary football AND their defense is bad.

I think we get a higher confidence when n=7 vs n=5.

Also, wsu is slightly better (basically a dead heat) than UM in yards allowed per game vs FCS only. I also think that a team in the top five in the BSC is probably in the top 25% of the FCS.

I would rather use a smaller sample of results that I actually understand than base my assessment of a team on these random OOC contests. People generally use stats from OOC games to mean whatever they want them to mean to forward a narrative. If you want to throw out the FBS blowouts-- which is fair-- I don't see why I should care about McNeese State and Butler.

In conference play, WEB has allowed 35 PPG, which is 10 point worse than UM's defense in-conference, and UM's isn't even very good to begin with. Games are decided by points, not yards.

Weber is certainly NOT a top 5 BSC team right now. They're in the bottom 3. But even if they were in the top 25% of the FCS, it wouldn't move the needle for me at all. The vast majority of the FCS is terrible; being ~30th in the subdivision means you're an awful team.

[TomCat88]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

Remove the two blowouts to two quality fbs teams and Weber is fifth in total D, run D and pass D out of 12 teams.

Their offense is second to last in scoring, last in offense. Their punting is last. The Thinking that their O and STs aren’t further hindering the D is hard for me to grasp.

You hear Vigen talk about playing complimentary football and this IMHO opinion is just the opposite of that.

Their STs gave up a safety and muffed a punt to allow for a 1 play, 2-yard TD drive vs EWU two weeks ago and the offense fumbled the ball away on the first play va UM.

You don't need to remove the two FBS blowouts from my numbers, because I only included BSC results.

In conference games, Weber has allowed 22 touchdown drives. The average length of drive is 63. They have been put in bad positions a few times, but 18/22 touchdowns they allowed were drives of 50+.

I think two things are true: they don't play good complementary football AND their defense is bad.

I think we get a higher confidence when n=7 vs n=5.

Also, wsu is slightly better (basically a dead heat) than UM in yards allowed per game vs FCS only. I also think that a team in the top five in the BSC is probably in the top 25% of the FCS.

I would rather use a smaller sample of results that I actually understand than base my assessment of a team on these random OOC contests. People generally use stats from OOC games to mean whatever they want them to mean to forward a narrative. If you want to throw out the FBS blowouts-- which is fair-- I don't see why I should care about McNeese State and Butler.

In conference play, WEB has allowed 35 PPG, which is 10 point worse than UM's defense in-conference, and UM's isn't even very good to begin with. Games are decided by points, not yards.

Weber is certainly NOT a top 5 BSC team right now. They're in the bottom 3. But even if they were in the top 25% of the FCS, it wouldn't move the needle for me at all. The vast majority of the FCS is terrible; being ~30th in the subdivision means you're an awful team.

Hmm? A smaller sample that consists of three of the top four offenses in the BSC vs a larger sample that countermeasures playing those three solid offensive teams. I think that skews their stats in a negative way, don't you?

Yes, games are decided by points. I think that we all know that. Not sure why you're bringing that into the conversation. Teams are evaluated on how well they play offense and defense, and one way to measure that is statistically and by taking into consideration externalities that effect how an individual unit might perform. In this case when you control some of the outliers for all teams, WSU shows well.

Fifth, statistically, in total defense in the BSC is good when considering it includes three of the top four offenses in the BSC. Total defense per game/per play is probably a better way to evaluate how good a defense is than points since points allowed can be directly related to misplays by the offense and special teams. Yards allowed per game/play eliminates those miscues by the offense/STs but can still be negatively affected by the offense/STs even without miscues.

[tetoncat]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

Remove the two blowouts to two quality fbs teams and Weber is fifth in total D, run D and pass D out of 12 teams.

Their offense is second to last in scoring, last in offense. Their punting is last. The Thinking that their O and STs aren’t further hindering the D is hard for me to grasp.

You hear Vigen talk about playing complimentary football and this IMHO opinion is just the opposite of that.

Their STs gave up a safety and muffed a punt to allow for a 1 play, 2-yard TD drive vs EWU two weeks ago and the offense fumbled the ball away on the first play va UM.

You don't need to remove the two FBS blowouts from my numbers, because I only included BSC results.

In conference games, Weber has allowed 22 touchdown drives. The average length of drive is 63. They have been put in bad positions a few times, but 18/22 touchdowns they allowed were drives of 50+.

I think two things are true: they don't play good complementary football AND their defense is bad.

I think we get a higher confidence when n=7 vs n=5.

Also, wsu is slightly better (basically a dead heat) than UM in yards allowed per game vs FCS only. I also think that a team in the top five in the BSC is probably in the top 25% of the FCS.

I would rather use a smaller sample of results that I actually understand than base my assessment of a team on these random OOC contests. People generally use stats from OOC games to mean whatever they want them to mean to forward a narrative. If you want to throw out the FBS blowouts-- which is fair-- I don't see why I should care about McNeese State and Butler.

In conference play, WEB has allowed 35 PPG, which is 10 point worse than UM's defense in-conference, and UM's isn't even very good to begin with. Games are decided by points, not yards.

Weber is certainly NOT a top 5 BSC team right now. They're in the bottom 3. But even if they were in the top 25% of the FCS, it wouldn't move the needle for me at all. The vast majority of the FCS is terrible; being ~30th in the subdivision means you're an awful team.

Hmm? A smaller sample that consists of three of the top four offenses in the BSC vs a larger sample that countermeasures playing those three solid offensive teams. I think that skews their stats in a negative way, don't you?

Yes, games are decided by points. I think that we all know that. Not sure why you're bringing that into the conversation. Teams are evaluated on how well they play offense and defense, and one way to measure that is statistically and by taking into consideration externalities that effect how an individual unit might perform. In this case when you control some of the outliers for all teams, WSU shows well.

Fifth, statistically, in total defense in the BSC is good when considering it includes three of the top four offenses in the BSC. Total defense per game/per play is probably a better way to evaluate how good a defense is than points since points allowed can be directly related to misplays by the offense and special teams. Yards allowed per game/play eliminates those miscues by the offense/STs but can still be negatively affected by the offense/STs even without miscues.

Maybe those top 3 offenses have not played many top defenses so numbers are skewed?

While YPP is good, giving up big plays can lead to poi nts, as can a team that gives up low YPP but can't get off field. OP showed that 18 of 22 drives were were longer so likely not due to the O or ST

[BelligerentBobcat]

Could it be that those teams are ranked high on offensive stats because they’ve played bad teams like Weber? UM’s starters killed them, Sac went over their average rushing yards per game by 100 yards and 2 YPC, UC Davis was right at their average, PSU was right at their average, and UM was 70 over their average only because they’ve played backups early.

That’s not a sign of a good defense. A good defense holds teams under their averages. You can try whatever reasoning you want, but none of it holds up. Weber is bad. Bad on offense, bad on defense, bad overall.

[catatac]

Could it be that those teams are ranked high on offensive stats because they’ve played bad teams like Weber? UM’s starters killed them, Sac went over their average rushing yards per game by 100 yards and 2 YPC, UC Davis was right at their average, PSU was right at their average, and UM was 70 over their average only because they’ve played backups early.

That’s not a sign of a good defense. A good defense holds teams under their averages. You can try whatever reasoning you want, but none of it holds up. Weber is bad. Bad on offense, bad on defense, bad overall.

Let me get this straight. Is Tom still trying to convince people that Weber State has a good defense? Wow. I guess we'll know more on Saturday.

[kwcat]

In BSC play, Weber has allowed 177 total points, or 35.4 PPG (coincidentally, this is the same exact number as the Cats' average margin of victory in BSC play). Only 2 of the 177 points allowed were scored by an opposing defense (a safety, obviously). I only see three drives in the five games in which the opposing team's TD drive was less than 50 yards.

There's nothing sneaky about these guys. They're just flat out bad and the Cats are going to beat them by 40+. They will be the 6th BSC team that the Cats have faced and are pretty firmly the worst team of the six.

Remove the two blowouts to two quality fbs teams and Weber is fifth in total D, run D and pass D out of 12 teams.

Their offense is second to last in scoring, last in offense. Their punting is last. The Thinking that their O and STs aren’t further hindering the D is hard for me to grasp.

You hear Vigen talk about playing complimentary football and this IMHO opinion is just the opposite of that.

Their STs gave up a safety and muffed a punt to allow for a 1 play, 2-yard TD drive vs EWU two weeks ago and the offense fumbled the ball away on the first play va UM.

You don't need to remove the two FBS blowouts from my numbers, because I only included BSC results.

In conference games, Weber has allowed 22 touchdown drives. The average length of drive is 63. They have been put in bad positions a few times, but 18/22 touchdowns they allowed were drives of 50+.

I think two things are true: they don't play good complementary football AND their defense is bad.

I think we get a higher confidence when n=7 vs n=5.

Three of their five conference games were against three of the top four offenses in the league.

Also, wsu is slightly better (basically a dead heat) than UM in yards allowed per game vs FCS only. I also think that a team in the top five in the BSC is probably in the top 25% of the FCS.

[MrGoodKat]

Hmm? A smaller sample that consists of three of the top four offenses in the BSC vs a larger sample that countermeasures playing those three solid offensive teams. I think that skews their stats in a negative way, don't you?

Yes, games are decided by points. I think that we all know that. Not sure why you're bringing that into the conversation. Teams are evaluated on how well they play offense and defense, and one way to measure that is statistically and by taking into consideration externalities that effect how an individual unit might perform. In this case when you control some of the outliers for all teams, WSU shows well.

Fifth, statistically, in total defense in the BSC is good when considering it includes three of the top four offenses in the BSC. Total defense per game/per play is probably a better way to evaluate how good a defense is than points since points allowed can be directly related to misplays by the offense and special teams. Yards allowed per game/play eliminates those miscues by the offense/STs but can still be negatively affected by the offense/STs even without miscues.

This is exactly what I meant when I said that people just use/ignore OOC stuff to forward whatever narrative they're trying to run with. You want to throw out the FBS OOC games because they make Weber look bad, but you want to include the FCS OOC games because they help the case you're making by couter-measuring their poor performance in BSC play.

Looking at their conference play alone doesn't skew anything. It just shows us who they are relative to the conference they play in. And it turns out, they're real bad.

The reason I brought up that games are decided by points is that you're trying to support your argument with yardage statistics. As I've demonstrated, Weber's defense has given up touchdowns on a few short fields, but the average and the majority have been long scoring drives.

I am a little surprised to meet such a defender of Weber State's defense, but we don't need to go around in circles. We will see what Saturday brings.

[BelligerentBobcat]

Hmm? A smaller sample that consists of three of the top four offenses in the BSC vs a larger sample that countermeasures playing those three solid offensive teams. I think that skews their stats in a negative way, don't you?

Yes, games are decided by points. I think that we all know that. Not sure why you're bringing that into the conversation. Teams are evaluated on how well they play offense and defense, and one way to measure that is statistically and by taking into consideration externalities that effect how an individual unit might perform. In this case when you control some of the outliers for all teams, WSU shows well.

Fifth, statistically, in total defense in the BSC is good when considering it includes three of the top four offenses in the BSC. Total defense per game/per play is probably a better way to evaluate how good a defense is than points since points allowed can be directly related to misplays by the offense and special teams. Yards allowed per game/play eliminates those miscues by the offense/STs but can still be negatively affected by the offense/STs even without miscues.

This is exactly what I meant when I said that people just use/ignore OOC stuff to forward whatever narrative they're trying to run with. You want to throw out the FBS OOC games because they make Weber look bad, but you want to include the FCS OOC games because they help the case you're making by couter-measuring their poor performance in BSC play.

Looking at their conference play alone doesn't skew anything. It just shows us who they are relative to the conference they play in. And it turns out, they're real bad.

The reason I brought up that games are decided by points is that you're trying to support your argument with yardage statistics. As I've demonstrated, Weber's defense has given up touchdowns on a few short fields, but the average and the majority have been long scoring drives.

I am a little surprised to meet such a defender of Weber State's defense, but we don't need to go around in circles. We will see what Saturday brings.

He’ll just say it doesn’t mean anything because they’ve only played the good BSC offenses.