If we win out are we guaranteed at least two home playoff games?

[catatac]

I'm guessing there are discussions about this in other threads but I haven't had a chance to catch up on all of them yet. I'm thinking..... yes, this should be a given..... and YES, I absolutely do think we can win out.

I have a hunch this will be yet another crazy weekend in the Big Sky where we thump a team that thumped the Griz, and the Griz get beat by a team we already beat. We'll see how it all shakes out.

[kennethnoisewater]

Yeah, the only thing that would hurt MSU at this point is if UM lost the next two games and went into Cat-gris outside the top 15. Even then, that's a solid win to add to the resume. But that would make things dicey. To go 3-2 against then-top-10 teams on the road is going to carry a lot of weight.

There are probably other scenarios that could come into play like Furman, Idaho and NDSU winning out that could be factors, but I think it's a fairly solid bet MSU gets a decent seed if they win out.

[Prodigal Cat]

I'm guessing there are discussions about this in other threads but I haven't had a chance to catch up on all of them yet. I'm thinking..... yes, this should be a given..... and YES, I absolutely do think we can win out.

I have a hunch this will be yet another crazy weekend in the Big Sky where we thump a team that thumped the Griz, and the Griz get beat by a team we already beat. We'll see how it all shakes out.

Extremely likely but not guaranteed. If SDSU, Furman, Idaho. and Delaware win out as well there is a chance Cats are the 5.

Related and of course I can't find it now but I saw Chattanooga was favored -1 against Furman this Saturday

[VimSince03]

My prediction is if we win out we get the #3 seed. What's the sweet spot seed? 6th or 7th as upsets always happen in that #2 and #3 seed range so in that case you get a home game in the 1st round and quarters, may get a home semi if #2 or #3 get upset, and you don't have to face SDSU or the 4/5 seed (which are usually strong teams who won their conference).

[91catAlum]

Seeds 1 thru 4 are guaranteed a bye week plus 2 home games, assuming they keep winning of course. So we'd have to be in the top 4, which is pretty likely if we win out.

Seeds 1 and 2 are basically out of the running now with 2 losses.

The 3 seed will be MUCH better than the 4 or 5 seed this year, as 4/5 winner goes to Brookings. If we can't get that 3 seed, I'd rather have the 6 or 7 seed and go on the road to face a Furman or Idaho type of team. Win that and we goto Frisco to face sdsu outside their home stadium, where we'd at least have a puncher's chance to win.

[BleedingBLue]

Now that we have a new thread discussing the playoffs, I'll put my current bracket and thoughts here.




First off, I think the #2 seed is still achievable. Is it probable? No, but who's to say Idaho wins out? Should they? Yes. But if they don't, we jump ahead of them assuming we win out (which I am). I agree with Vim that we can still get the #3 seed, and that it's likely should we win out. The strength of schedule for both Furman and Delaware are far below ours. Although both could end up undefeated vs. the FCS, their resumes aren't impressive, and neither have anything else that will add much to it. Delaware plays one of the softest CAA schedules this year, and the SoCon has good/average teams and bad teams, no in between, which hurts Furman. The FCS has been even more weird than usual this year. My bracket as it currently stands assumes the weirdness will continue. I am saying Chattanooga will beat Furman this weekend, UM will beat Sac State this weekend but lose to PSU next weekend, and the MVFC continues to chew itself up.

So, the reasoning for my seeds.
#1 SDSU - Winning out, no doubt they are here
#2 Idaho - Even though they will have a loss to UM, their FBS win, wins over the Cats and Sac State propel them to #2 at 9-2 overall
#3 MSU - Inches away from beating #1, a 3 point loss to #2 and wins over top 5 teams on the road in Sac State and UM push the Cats to #3 ahead of 10-1 Delaware and 9-2 Furman
#4 Delaware - Could have a case for #3, but not a good enough case. Their weak SOS (currently 61st) should hold them back.
#5 Furman - Even at 9-2, the way the SoCon is playing out gives Furman a good shot at a top 6 seed. They've won some games ugly, and some convincingly. I have them at 5 with the assumption there are no other 9-2 teams out there (could very well change).
#6 Incarnate Word - This hurts me, but I don't see how the committee drops these jokers any lower than #6 when everyone else below them would have 3 losses.
#7 - South Dakota - Of the 3 loss teams in the MVFC and the BSC, I have USD with the best resume. Their loss to Mizzou can be thrown out because of how well Mizzou is playing, so really only 2 FCS losses in this scenario.
#8 Albany - What?! you may say. I had these guys at 6-6 to start the year, and 7-5 after OOC. The reason I have them here is because of their 12th game exception for travelfing to Hawaii. It gives them a chance at a 9th DI win, and a 9-1 record against the FCS.

Teams in the mix in order of best argument.
Southern Illinois - They have an FBS win, would own a win over USD in this scenario and conference champs Austin Peay and SE Missouri State. They also have a hard-fought loss to SDSU. The reason I have USD seeded over them - USD has more impressive wins over NDSU and UND.
Sacramento State - They are in the discussion because of their FBS win, and close losses to MSU, Idaho and I'm assuming UM (2 on the road). No true quality wins though in FCS
North Dakota State - A good win over a hot UNI team keeps them in the discussion. The UND loss looks worse now. A win over SIU in the is scenario is a boost as well.
Montana - Not much of an argument with 1 of their 8 wins being DII. Good wins over Idaho and Sac State though.
Lafeyette - They actually have a decent claim at a seed since being undefeated in FCS means something. I have them at 10-1 in this scenario, with wins over Holy Cross and Princeton helping their resume. Holy Cross propping the league up the last couple years may help them.

Now the conference break downs.

BSC - 4 teams are getting in, and all 4 are nearly a lock at his point. Any of the 4 could be seeded, and any of the 4 could be playing on Thanksgiving weekend. If Sac State ins out, they are a top 6 seed, maybe even top 5. If Idaho wins out they are the #2 seed (unless SDSU falls apart and/or UM wins out). Even if they drop another, I think they still get the #7 seed. If UM wins out, they could lay claim to the #2 seed, and maybe even the #1 seed if SDSU falters. If the Cats win out, as I said above, I think the #3 seed is probable. Depending on how things shake out, the BSC could have 3 seeds, and possibly even 4. For now I am going with 1 more loss by Sac State and 2 more by UM.

Big South-OVC - SEMO faltered during their OOC schedule in a few games, otherwise they could be looking at a seed. As it stands now, they avoid Gardner-Webb who just beat UT-Martin, and now have the inside track on the conference title. Probably a 1 bid league with the chaos that has started.

CAA - This conference has beat itself up very badly. Delaware is the clear favorite to win the conference now. They are looking better every week. Lots of teams that could be 7-4, and fewer than I thought who may end up at 8-3, virtually guaranteeing an at large spot. After Albany at 9-3, I have New Hampshire, Villanova, Rhode Island, William & Mary and Richmond all at 7-4. I listed them in order of their shot at getting into the playoffs.

MVFC - These guys are beating each other up this year as well. I see them getting at least 5 teams, with a possibility to get 6. Likely will get 2 seeds, but I don't see them grabbing more. There are still teams that can play themselves out into or out of a seed. SIU, USD and NDSU being the most likely to get a seed.

Southern - Nobody in this conference ever seems to want to take control. Mercer bolstered their resume and playoff hopes with a win over Western Carolina this past weekend. Both of those teams have a good shot at going 8-3 and getting into the playoffs. Furman has a test this weekend against Chattanooga. Should they win, they will most likely lock up a top 4 seed. If they lose a seed is still probable, and Chattanooga gets itself into the playoffs at 8-3. No chance at more than 1 seed.

I'm not going to detail any of the other conferences that are a guaranteed 1 bid. So much football left to play, and so many possibilities. This bracket will be totally wrong come November 19th, I'm sure.

[CodyCat]

If your bracket became reality, that would be a lot of fun!!!! Can you imagine hosting South Dakota or going back to Moscow for the Semi's!!! And to even get that far we'd have to beat NDSU in Bobcat Stadium. That'd be absolutely wild.

[luckyirishguy25]

I'm guessing there are discussions about this in other threads but I haven't had a chance to catch up on all of them yet. I'm thinking..... yes, this should be a given..... and YES, I absolutely do think we can win out.

I have a hunch this will be yet another crazy weekend in the Big Sky where we thump a team that thumped the Griz, and the Griz get beat by a team we already beat. We'll see how it all shakes out.

If we win out we'll get a top 4 seed.

[coloradocat]

Now that we have a new thread discussing the playoffs, I'll put my current bracket and thoughts here.

Would it be more likely that the matchups that feed Idaho and MSU get flipped so that Sac comes to Bozeman and the east coast teams travel to #2 instead of #3?

[BleedingBLue]

Now that we have a new thread discussing the playoffs, I'll put my current bracket and thoughts here.

Would it be more likely that the matchups that feed Idaho and MSU get flipped so that Sac comes to Bozeman and the east coast teams travel to #2 instead of #3?

Possibly. However, travel heavily plays into the bracket, even in the 2nd round. Since nobody has heard anything on the top 16 being seeded (it's with the NCAA's finance committee right now, has been since June) instead of straight up regionalization like they have always done, I went with what would make the most travel sense. Getting into Bozeman is easy for anybody from anywhere. Getting into Moscow, not so much. I figured the Sac State SEMO winner would have an easier time getting to an airport and into Lewiston or Spokane than Western Carolina and Austin Peay winner. The travel for either winner is a bit less this way too. I believe they try to avoid 3 time zone jumps as well.

[CodyCat]

Now that we have a new thread discussing the playoffs, I'll put my current bracket and thoughts here.

Would it be more likely that the matchups that feed Idaho and MSU get flipped so that Sac comes to Bozeman and the east coast teams travel to #2 instead of #3?

Possibly. However, travel heavily plays into the bracket, even in the 2nd round. Since nobody has heard anything on the top 16 being seeded (it's with the NCAA's finance committee right now, has been since June) instead of straight up regionalization like they have always done, I went with what would make the most travel sense. Getting into Bozeman is easy for anybody from anywhere. Getting into Moscow, not so much. I figured the Sac State SEMO winner would have an easier time getting to an airport and into Lewiston or Spokane than Western Carolina and Austin Peay winner. The travel for either winner is a bit less this way too. I believe they try to avoid 3 time zone jumps as well.

Im pretty sure they tabled the 16 seeds talk until next year. I believe this year is same ol same ol.

[BleedingBLue]

Now that we have a new thread discussing the playoffs, I'll put my current bracket and thoughts here.

Would it be more likely that the matchups that feed Idaho and MSU get flipped so that Sac comes to Bozeman and the east coast teams travel to #2 instead of #3?

Possibly. However, travel heavily plays into the bracket, even in the 2nd round. Since nobody has heard anything on the top 16 being seeded (it's with the NCAA's finance committee right now, has been since June) instead of straight up regionalization like they have always done, I went with what would make the most travel sense. Getting into Bozeman is easy for anybody from anywhere. Getting into Moscow, not so much. I figured the Sac State SEMO winner would have an easier time getting to an airport and into Lewiston or Spokane than Western Carolina and Austin Peay winner. The travel for either winner is a bit less this way too. I believe they try to avoid 3 time zone jumps as well.

Im pretty sure they tabled the 16 seeds talk until next year. I believe this year is same ol same ol.

The Competition Committee voted to put it in place for this season. The NCAA finance committee has to vote on it now since they pay for the travel, and without regionalization it would cost them more money. Not very surprising they've had it on their desk for 4 1/2 months and done nothing with it.

[Montanabob]

no.

[PapaG]

If not and if both Idaho and SDSU win out, scheduling a power like SDSU or NDSU or even a UND or USD makes no sense in future OOC games at all. Play a D2 team at home instead for an extra home game, win closely, and get rewarded for it.

[catatac]

I'm guessing there are discussions about this in other threads but I haven't had a chance to catch up on all of them yet. I'm thinking..... yes, this should be a given..... and YES, I absolutely do think we can win out.

I have a hunch this will be yet another crazy weekend in the Big Sky where we thump a team that thumped the Griz, and the Griz get beat by a team we already beat. We'll see how it all shakes out.

If we win out we'll get a top 4 seed.

Yes, it's sounding like that's the resounding answer, and that makes me happy! Three incredibly important games from here on, but I think these Cats have it in them to win out. Is there any universe that would end up with the Griz a higher seed than the Cats if we win out and they win the next two but obv get beat by Cats? I would say there is zero chance of that happening, but I also know the committee loves them, they are currently ranked higher than us, they beat Idaho and we didn't, etc.

[luckyirishguy25]

I'm guessing there are discussions about this in other threads but I haven't had a chance to catch up on all of them yet. I'm thinking..... yes, this should be a given..... and YES, I absolutely do think we can win out.

I have a hunch this will be yet another crazy weekend in the Big Sky where we thump a team that thumped the Griz, and the Griz get beat by a team we already beat. We'll see how it all shakes out.

If we win out we'll get a top 4 seed.

Yes, it's sounding like that's the resounding answer, and that makes me happy! Three incredibly important games from here on, but I think these Cats have it in them to win out. Is there any universe that would end up with the Griz a higher seed than the Cats if we win out and they win the next two but obv get beat by Cats? I would say there is zero chance of that happening, but I also know the committee loves them, they are currently ranked higher than us, they beat Idaho and we didn't, etc.

Our resume and SoS if far beyond the gris, I'd also say 0 chance.

[thefrank1]

Only the first game is a sure thing, we have to win the first one to get more.

[tetoncat]

Yeah, the only thing that would hurt MSU at this point is if UM lost the next two games and went into Cat-gris outside the top 15. Even then, that's a solid win to add to the resume. But that would make things dicey. To go 3-2 against then-top-10 teams on the road is going to carry a lot of weight.

There are probably other scenarios that could come into play like Furman, Idaho and NDSU winning out that could be factors, but I think it's a fairly solid bet MSU gets a decent seed if they win out.

Everyone seems to be hinging Cats hopes on the Griz ranking. I don't agree. Win out Cats will be a top 4 seed, 2 last second losses to top seeds on the road with some solid wins

[tetoncat]

Only the first game is a sure thing, we have to win the first one to get more.

not sure any posters knew that. Thanks for pointing it out

[onceacat]

I'm guessing there are discussions about this in other threads but I haven't had a chance to catch up on all of them yet. I'm thinking..... yes, this should be a given..... and YES, I absolutely do think we can win out.

I have a hunch this will be yet another crazy weekend in the Big Sky where we thump a team that thumped the Griz, and the Griz get beat by a team we already beat. We'll see how it all shakes out.

Extremely likely but not guaranteed. If SDSU, Furman, Idaho. and Delaware win out as well there is a chance Cats are the 5.

Related and of course I can't find it now but I saw Chattanooga was favored -1 against Furman this Saturday

Its certainly possible, but Delawares terrible strength of schedule is going to be a limiting factor.