Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

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TomCat88
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Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

Post by TomCat88 » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:03 pm

Currently 166,000, so that would mean about 220,000 deaths so far.

I've tried to explain the deaths over average thing on here a couple times, but this guy does a better job of it.



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Rich K
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Re: Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

Post by Rich K » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:31 am

Why the Smear Campaign Against Hydroxychloroquine?
https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2020/au ... rdMJdDlvKo
How did a drug known for decades as 'safe and effective' suddenly become dangerous?

Hydroxychloroquine is so safe that in several nations it's sold over the counter without a prescription. It's been used for 65 years to treat Malaria and then Lupus. But the media has begun portraying Hydroxychloroquine like a public health menace, and this pharmaceutical smear campaign began around the time President Trump started taking it.

"I'm taking it, Hydroxychloroquine. Right now, yeah, a couple of weeks ago I started taking it," Trump told reporters on May 18, "Because I think it's good. I've heard a lot of good stories......."


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iaafan
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Re: Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

Post by iaafan » Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:23 am

TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:03 pm
Currently 166,000, so that would mean about 220,000 deaths so far.

I've tried to explain the deaths over average thing on here a couple times, but this guy does a better job of it.

He sums it up well. He doesn't mention it, but the graph about halfway through shows that deaths were below average the first part of the year. Could be that we were heading for a below average year in deaths, which would mean that the undercount is even greater. 75,000?



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Re: Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

Post by Cataholic » Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:26 am

TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:03 pm
Currently 166,000, so that would mean about 220,000 deaths so far.

I've tried to explain the deaths over average thing on here a couple times, but this guy does a better job of it.

Reasonable theory, but there are issues with this theory as well. Basically, he is using the historic annual experience of deaths as a base to compare the number of deaths incurred this year. As we can all attest to, this year has been anything from ordinary. The closed economy, racial tension, etc have all changed the way we live in 2020. All of these events most likely have impacted annual death rates as well. For example, have suicides, heart attacks or strokes went up this year due to higher stress and less ability to exercise. Another factor could be putting off medical care as procedures have been delayed due to Covid restrictions.

Strangely, even efforts to protect our health can have effects we did not think about. My daughter has been undergoing some tests for asthma. One of the tests is how much oxygen is in her blood. A recent doctor visit showed that her oxygen levels were low. The nurse said let’s retest your levels after removing the mask. The oxygen levels immediately went up. I am not saying that masks are bad (the benefit is probably greater than the negative), but the lower oxygen level was an unintended consequence.



iaafan
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Re: Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

Post by iaafan » Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:13 am

Cataholic wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:26 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:03 pm
Currently 166,000, so that would mean about 220,000 deaths so far.

I've tried to explain the deaths over average thing on here a couple times, but this guy does a better job of it.

Reasonable theory, but there are issues with this theory as well. Basically, he is using the historic annual experience of deaths as a base to compare the number of deaths incurred this year. As we can all attest to, this year has been anything from ordinary. The closed economy, racial tension, etc have all changed the way we live in 2020. All of these events most likely have impacted annual death rates as well. For example, have suicides, heart attacks or strokes went up this year due to higher stress and less ability to exercise. Another factor could be putting off medical care as procedures have been delayed due to Covid restrictions.

Strangely, even efforts to protect our health can have effects we did not think about. My daughter has been undergoing some tests for asthma. One of the tests is how much oxygen is in her blood. A recent doctor visit showed that her oxygen levels were low. The nurse said let’s retest your levels after removing the mask. The oxygen levels immediately went up. I am not saying that masks are bad (the benefit is probably greater than the negative), but the lower oxygen level was an unintended consequence.
Good post.

There are deaths caused directly by Covid and then there are Covid-related deaths. Much of what you listed could be Covid-related. The fact that people are committing suicide at a projected 10% higher rate is in part due to Covid. Obviously, trying to save those, approximately 5,000, people from doing that this year would likely cost the lives of a much larger number of people. Same for relieving Covid induced, stress-related heart attacks and strokes. There are a lot of in-direct deaths from Covid included in that 54,000 number. But a trade off would most likely drive that number much, much higher.



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Re: Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

Post by BigBruceBaker » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:54 pm

iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:13 am
Cataholic wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:26 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:03 pm
Currently 166,000, so that would mean about 220,000 deaths so far.

I've tried to explain the deaths over average thing on here a couple times, but this guy does a better job of it.

Reasonable theory, but there are issues with this theory as well. Basically, he is using the historic annual experience of deaths as a base to compare the number of deaths incurred this year. As we can all attest to, this year has been anything from ordinary. The closed economy, racial tension, etc have all changed the way we live in 2020. All of these events most likely have impacted annual death rates as well. For example, have suicides, heart attacks or strokes went up this year due to higher stress and less ability to exercise. Another factor could be putting off medical care as procedures have been delayed due to Covid restrictions.

Strangely, even efforts to protect our health can have effects we did not think about. My daughter has been undergoing some tests for asthma. One of the tests is how much oxygen is in her blood. A recent doctor visit showed that her oxygen levels were low. The nurse said let’s retest your levels after removing the mask. The oxygen levels immediately went up. I am not saying that masks are bad (the benefit is probably greater than the negative), but the lower oxygen level was an unintended consequence.
Good post.

There are deaths caused directly by Covid and then there are Covid-related deaths. Much of what you listed could be Covid-related. The fact that people are committing suicide at a projected 10% higher rate is in part due to Covid. Obviously, trying to save those, approximately 5,000, people from doing that this year would likely cost the lives of a much larger number of people. Same for relieving Covid induced, stress-related heart attacks and strokes. There are a lot of in-direct deaths from Covid included in that 54,000 number. But a trade off would most likely drive that number much, much higher.
I'm not arguing here; preventing a persons suicide leads to a larger loss of life than if they had just committed suicide? So if I prevent a suicide of a family member most likely 2 people will die because of it?

Maybe it was just worded funky. :shrug:


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TomCat88
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Re: Deaths over average shows Covid deaths undercounted by 54,000

Post by TomCat88 » Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:44 pm

BigBruceBaker wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:54 pm
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:13 am
Cataholic wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:26 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:03 pm
Currently 166,000, so that would mean about 220,000 deaths so far.

I've tried to explain the deaths over average thing on here a couple times, but this guy does a better job of it.

Reasonable theory, but there are issues with this theory as well. Basically, he is using the historic annual experience of deaths as a base to compare the number of deaths incurred this year. As we can all attest to, this year has been anything from ordinary. The closed economy, racial tension, etc have all changed the way we live in 2020. All of these events most likely have impacted annual death rates as well. For example, have suicides, heart attacks or strokes went up this year due to higher stress and less ability to exercise. Another factor could be putting off medical care as procedures have been delayed due to Covid restrictions.

Strangely, even efforts to protect our health can have effects we did not think about. My daughter has been undergoing some tests for asthma. One of the tests is how much oxygen is in her blood. A recent doctor visit showed that her oxygen levels were low. The nurse said let’s retest your levels after removing the mask. The oxygen levels immediately went up. I am not saying that masks are bad (the benefit is probably greater than the negative), but the lower oxygen level was an unintended consequence.
Good post.

There are deaths caused directly by Covid and then there are Covid-related deaths. Much of what you listed could be Covid-related. The fact that people are committing suicide at a projected 10% higher rate is in part due to Covid. Obviously, trying to save those, approximately 5,000, people from doing that this year would likely cost the lives of a much larger number of people. Same for relieving Covid induced, stress-related heart attacks and strokes. There are a lot of in-direct deaths from Covid included in that 54,000 number. But a trade off would most likely drive that number much, much higher.
I'm not arguing here; preventing a persons suicide leads to a larger loss of life than if they had just committed suicide? So if I prevent a suicide of a family member most likely 2 people will die because of it?

Maybe it was just worded funky. :shrug:
Think he’s trying to say if you remove all the Covid protection in order to save people from killing them selves that the loss of life to Covid would greatly exceed the number of suicides.


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