Illinois State

[aucat]

How much of an underdog were we last year? WE should have won last year. I love Coach Vigen but I will always fault his call in going for it on 4th and 5 from the 50 with 2 minutes left in the first half. We were already down 14-3 BUT Tommy had a bad first half PLUS we were going to receive the 2nd half kickoff. The obvious call was to PUNT but he went for it, didn't make it and NDSU goes in to score to go up 21-3. We ended up losing by only 3. If we had only punted MSU would have won that game.

As for Illinois State: any team that can go into Fargo and beat NDSU on their home field especially given how impressive NDSU has played all year, has all of my respect. Plus ISU appears to be on a roll with very impressive wins so far in the playoffs. We may be favored but it will absolutely take our A game to win. I fear that WAY too many Bobcats are too overconfident. But I know our players and coaches will have the right mindset. Go Cats.

[ilovethecats]

Illinois State will be good and we’re going to win by 14.

That’s what I’m thinking too. Obviously Illinois state is coming to play. Obviously they think they can win. I think all of that kinda goes without saying. All of that can be said about our team as well. I just think we’re better. I think our experience in the title game and the preparation that goes with it will be vital.

Nothing I say matters. The team will be prepared. I thought we’d beat the griz by around 20. I feel like we’ll beat ISU by 14+.

[BelligerentBobcat]

Illinois State will be good and we’re going to win by 14.

That’s what I’m thinking too. Obviously Illinois state is coming to play. Obviously they think they can win. I think all of that kinda goes without saying. All of that can be said about our team as well. I just think we’re better. I think our experience in the title game and the preparation that goes with it will be vital.

Nothing I say matters. The team will be prepared. I thought we’d beat the griz by around 20. I feel like we’ll beat ISU by 14+.

I just don’t see this team losing. They are so motivated and they’ve largely all been here before. They understand it the stakes.

[TomCat88]

MSU held what was arguably the top offense in the nation to 25.5 points, which is 15.5 points below their average. UM averaged 457/game and 6.6 yards per play on the season, including* vs MSU. MSU held UM to 350/game and 5.6 ypp. 107/game and 1.0/play below its average. There was very little variation from 1.0 to 2.0. UM had 60 plays, 364 yards, 28 points in 1.0; 67, 347, 23 in 2.0.

The most points MSU allowed in regulation vs FCS teams (14) is 28 (at UM; SFA).

Illinois St. averages 30 ppg, which is right at what it's averaging in the playoffs.

Obviously, stats don't determine who wins.

* - UM was probably around 43 ppg, 480/game, 6.8/play vs non-MSU teams.

[84CatGrad]

I would assume Oregon was as big or bigger. Hopefully we are quicker.

Yeah, Oregon was as big or bigger. I don't think you even need to look it up.

I think the two biggest OLs out of the FCS teams were:
SDSU was 300-305-310-315-320
Yale 313-300-310-310-285

Held SDSU under 300 (4.6 ypp) yards and 17 points (in regulation)
Held Yale to 351 (4.7 ypp) and 13 points.

Weber was huge a few years ago when they were relevant and it didn't do them much good against us.

[Nickisch]

Vigen said it best post-game when he said "We're not done yet" The team will play their most complete game in Nashville and hang a banner.

[KMPC1]

The week break may be a disadvantage to ISU. They have been on a roll.

Interesting point. We’ll take any advantage we get (assuming the above works in our favor)!

[CodyCat]

I’ve been really impressed this season how MSU can seemingly dig out of anything. Obviously Lamson to Taco sticks out. But, over and over again this team has overcome penalties or sacks to pick up first downs. Or last week’s drive after the gris scored 20 unanswered. Nothing flashy, just business like. However Vigen and Co have created this resiliency is impressive. It’s a huge reason I thought they’d roll the gris and will win the Natty.

[TomCat88]

I would assume Oregon was as big or bigger. Hopefully we are quicker.

Yeah, Oregon was as big or bigger. I don't think you even need to look it up.

I think the two biggest OLs out of the FCS teams were:
SDSU was 300-305-310-315-320
Yale 313-300-310-310-285

Held SDSU under 300 (4.6 ypp) yards and 17 points (in regulation)
Held Yale to 351 (4.7 ypp) and 13 points.

Weber was huge a few years ago when they were relevant and it didn't do them much good against us.

2022
335-330-295-285-365

WSU had 38 points in the first game but 14 on punt and kickoff returns. 25 points in second game.

[89Cat]

I coached for 22 years and I’ve been watching football for over 50. One thing I’ve noticed, at any level is that before teams can get over the hump, they usually take some hard losses, often in prior years as they build a program. We’ve been to the natty twice and have lost both times. I think it’s our turn. Rarely do you see a team come out of nowhere, get hot one year, and win it all, whether that’s high school, college, or the pros.

[catatac]

I would assume Oregon was as big or bigger. Hopefully we are quicker.

Yeah, Oregon was as big or bigger. I don't think you even need to look it up.

I think the two biggest OLs out of the FCS teams were:
SDSU was 300-305-310-315-320
Yale 313-300-310-310-285

Held SDSU under 300 (4.6 ypp) yards and 17 points (in regulation)
Held Yale to 351 (4.7 ypp) and 13 points.

Weber was huge a few years ago when they were relevant and it didn't do them much good against us.

This. Size of a team's OL means absolutely nothing. Sure if they're huge AND athletic AND all playing well together, that can be a problem. Other than that, doesn't mean anything. I remember back with the Patriots were dominating teams and winning super bowls, one year I remember their OL averaged like 290 or something.

[Cataholic]

I coached for 22 years and I’ve been watching football for over 50. One thing I’ve noticed, at any level is that before teams can get over the hump, they usually take some hard losses, often in prior years as they build a program. We’ve been to the natty twice and have lost both times. I think it’s our turn. Rarely do you see a team come out of nowhere, get hot one year, and win it all, whether that’s high school, college, or the pros.

SDSU is a great example. Runner up a couple times before winning the big one. Cats will get over the hump on Jan 5.

[Augustus]

Rarely do you see a team come out of nowhere, get hot one year, and win it all, whether that’s high school, college, or the pros.

We did it in '84. Illinois State could do it this year. The Cats had better have their poop in a group.

[catzz]

I coached for 22 years and I’ve been watching football for over 50. One thing I’ve noticed, at any level is that before teams can get over the hump, they usually take some hard losses, often in prior years as they build a program. We’ve been to the natty twice and have lost both times. I think it’s our turn. Rarely do you see a team come out of nowhere, get hot one year, and win it all, whether that’s high school, college, or the pros.

You are not wrong. Very difficult for them to do and we have definitely taken our lumps. We have arrived.

[ZebraCat]

Rarely do you see a team come out of nowhere, get hot one year, and win it all, whether that’s high school, college, or the pros.

We did it in '84. Illinois State could do it this year. The Cats had better have their poop in a group.

I'm surprised you even think we have a chance.

[BFcatfan]

Playing in the natty last year will keep everyone grounded...losing by 3 last year really irked the young men, so I don't see them squandering this moment. I think that is the piece not enough people are factoring in. Almost everyone on the team was in frisco last year. They were good enough to win, and they know it. I see them coming out super focused and ensuring we get the win.

This…

[TomCat88]

Playing in the natty last year will keep everyone grounded...losing by 3 last year really irked the young men, so I don't see them squandering this moment. I think that is the piece not enough people are factoring in. Almost everyone on the team was in frisco last year. They were good enough to win, and they know it. I see them coming out super focused and ensuring we get the win.

Not only most of the team, but also Lamson, who was in the stands watching. His first interview is very interesting to listen to. It’s on YouTube.

[Augustus]

Rarely do you see a team come out of nowhere, get hot one year, and win it all, whether that’s high school, college, or the pros.

We did it in '84. Illinois State could do it this year. The Cats had better have their poop in a group.

I'm surprised you even think we have a chance.

.
Of course we have a chance. A better than average one.

But don't underestimate ISU. They're a cinderella team on a roll with a whole bunch of really big strong guys who believe they can win this thing. And they could, if the Cats don't do everything right.

[CodyCat]

From a poster on the Redbird Forum:

Just watched the UCD @ Mont St game from Nov 15. MSU won 38-17. Couple observations as this score was very misleading. MSU struggled to consistently move the ball against UCD. First some stats:

First downs were UCD 28 to 15. Rush 1st downs were 19 to 7 in favor of UCD ... that was the stunner given Mont St runs so much and so well.

Total Yards were UCD 424 to 377. Not surprisingly, UCD out-passed MST by 234 to 144.

Problem was Pinnick threw 2 picks .. a horrendous throw and pick 6 for 83 yards, and then another pick returned 30+ yards to the 20, that they scored a TD a few plays later. On the pick 6 for 83 yards, down 17-7, UCD had drive to their 26. Could have closed score to 17-10 or 17-14. Instead MSU goes up 21-7.

So it wasn't like UCD was getting beat decisively at all. They were moving the ball far better than MDSU was. IN 12 drives, UCD's best starting field position all game was at 27 twice. But their avg field position all game was the 20 yard line. Ours was slightly worse, just below 18 yard line.

But comparing drive chart stats against UCD is what jumped out the most for me:

- MSU had the following drives against UCD: 80, 75, 63, 56, 25, 23, 20, 9, 6, 2. MSU punted 4 times, and missed a FG.
- ISU had the following top drives against UCD: 94, 93, 80, 80, 75, 67, 33 (pick), 12. ISU punted once, threw a pick, and missed a FG

Games were played 4 weeks apart. MST was playing at Home. We were on the Road of course. To say nothing of what we did to the Bison on the Road. Bison stats are even more dominant than MST.

MSU also struggled to move the ball against SDSU and lost in OT in a low scoring game. Granted that game was week 2. Our was week 11 and QB was out for our game. We jumped to 35-0 lead with some great plays and a little bit of good fortune. Now whether we went conservative much earlier than usual (i assume), or SDSU battled back to lose just 35-21 .. I dont know. But this Bobcat offense has struggled to move the ball against our 2 common opponents.

Game will still come down to the play in trenches. But their OL isnt big .. just 1 guy over 300 at 315, 2 guys at 300, and then 2 guys around 285-290. Theyve got what looks like their 4 go to guys on offense .. #8 QB true dual threat will run a lot, #32 RB looks more dominant but nowhere near as physical as Dawson or Wright. Then #23 RB looks very solid, and the #14 WR (5'9" 170).

I was also looking at our offensive stats the last 3 games ... sure our defense has stepped up in playoffs. But what I didn't expect was how much offensive improvement against these 3 very good teams. I looked at their historical Comparisons of prior opponent .... ignoring the 2 FBS games (UCD and Nova), our offense outplayed every single opponent (34 teams) except maybe 2 or 3. And for NDSU, it wasn't close for any of their 12 FCS opponents. I was looking at stats like Total Yards, First Downs, Pass vs Rush, etc.

We will have to spy their QB all game, because he will run at any time .. seems like the coach gives him a full green light to take off. He runs pretty well, but straight up a lot. Not super fast or quick, just fast enough and sees field very well at 6'2". Couple big hits on his tall frame could change his attitude about running so much.

I hope our OL is healing up and we get Wenkers Wright back to spell Dawson some. Starting to feel like our physicality and skill play will surprise them a fair amount. To see their offense struggle at Home against a defense we dominated on Road.

[SparkCat]

From a poster on the Redbird Forum:

Just watched the UCD @ Mont St game from Nov 15. MSU won 38-17. Couple observations as this score was very misleading. MSU struggled to consistently move the ball against UCD. First some stats:

First downs were UCD 28 to 15. Rush 1st downs were 19 to 7 in favor of UCD ... that was the stunner given Mont St runs so much and so well.

Total Yards were UCD 424 to 377. Not surprisingly, UCD out-passed MST by 234 to 144.

Problem was Pinnick threw 2 picks .. a horrendous throw and pick 6 for 83 yards, and then another pick returned 30+ yards to the 20, that they scored a TD a few plays later. On the pick 6 for 83 yards, down 17-7, UCD had drive to their 26. Could have closed score to 17-10 or 17-14. Instead MSU goes up 21-7.

So it wasn't like UCD was getting beat decisively at all. They were moving the ball far better than MDSU was. IN 12 drives, UCD's best starting field position all game was at 27 twice. But their avg field position all game was the 20 yard line. Ours was slightly worse, just below 18 yard line.

But comparing drive chart stats against UCD is what jumped out the most for me:

- MSU had the following drives against UCD: 80, 75, 63, 56, 25, 23, 20, 9, 6, 2. MSU punted 4 times, and missed a FG.
- ISU had the following top drives against UCD: 94, 93, 80, 80, 75, 67, 33 (pick), 12. ISU punted once, threw a pick, and missed a FG

Games were played 4 weeks apart. MST was playing at Home. We were on the Road of course. To say nothing of what we did to the Bison on the Road. Bison stats are even more dominant than MST.

MSU also struggled to move the ball against SDSU and lost in OT in a low scoring game. Granted that game was week 2. Our was week 11 and QB was out for our game. We jumped to 35-0 lead with some great plays and a little bit of good fortune. Now whether we went conservative much earlier than usual (i assume), or SDSU battled back to lose just 35-21 .. I dont know. But this Bobcat offense has struggled to move the ball against our 2 common opponents.

Game will still come down to the play in trenches. But their OL isnt big .. just 1 guy over 300 at 315, 2 guys at 300, and then 2 guys around 285-290. Theyve got what looks like their 4 go to guys on offense .. #8 QB true dual threat will run a lot, #32 RB looks more dominant but nowhere near as physical as Dawson or Wright. Then #23 RB looks very solid, and the #14 WR (5'9" 170).

I was also looking at our offensive stats the last 3 games ... sure our defense has stepped up in playoffs. But what I didn't expect was how much offensive improvement against these 3 very good teams. I looked at their historical Comparisons of prior opponent .... ignoring the 2 FBS games (UCD and Nova), our offense outplayed every single opponent (34 teams) except maybe 2 or 3. And for NDSU, it wasn't close for any of their 12 FCS opponents. I was looking at stats like Total Yards, First Downs, Pass vs Rush, etc.

We will have to spy their QB all game, because he will run at any time .. seems like the coach gives him a full green light to take off. He runs pretty well, but straight up a lot. Not super fast or quick, just fast enough and sees field very well at 6'2". Couple big hits on his tall frame could change his attitude about running so much.

I hope our OL is healing up and we get Wenkers Wright back to spell Dawson some. Starting to feel like our physicality and skill play will surprise them a fair amount. To see their offense struggle at Home against a defense we dominated on Road.

Cool, their posters sound like they like to play the transitive property game too. But they seem to leave out is UC Davis had a bad case of the injury bug and also I believe a number of their players literally had the bug when they were playing them. They also got the joy of playing SDSU when their team was completely handicapped.