Can the Cats & Griz Get It Done?

[TomCat88]

Losing the first home game to an opponent and then winning the second game away against the same opponent in the same season—is rare but has happened. The last time it happened was in 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks (lost to Saints in Week 3 home, beat them in Week 13 away), demonstrating a team's ability to adapt and flip the script in a rematch, often in the playoffs or later in the season.

It's only happened four times in the NFL since 2007.

[TomCat88]

Who has a better chance of winning their quarterfinal game, and why? The Cats or the Griz?

[Montanabob]

Losing the first home game to an opponent and then winning the second game away against the same opponent in the same season—is rare but has happened. The last time it happened was in 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks (lost to Saints in Week 3 home, beat them in Week 13 away), demonstrating a team's ability to adapt and flip the script in a rematch, often in the playoffs or later in the season.

It's only happened four times in the NFL since 2007.

I think it happened in the FCS this year with a playoff team.

[iaafan]

Losing the first home game to an opponent and then winning the second game away against the same opponent in the same season—is rare but has happened. The last time it happened was in 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks (lost to Saints in Week 3 home, beat them in Week 13 away), demonstrating a team's ability to adapt and flip the script in a rematch, often in the playoffs or later in the season.

It's only happened four times in the NFL since 2007.

I think it happened in the FCS this year with a playoff team.

Sooooo….it won’t happen again until 2029?

[catatac]

There's a lot to decide before this game happens. I do know it's very tough to beat the same team twice.

It happens literally all the time.

Ya, that's always just been an urban legend.

[catatac]

Who has a better chance of winning their quarterfinal game, and why? The Cats or the Griz?

That's a great question. I know a lot of us are in the same boat, somewhat concerned with the performance against Yale. I'm not one of those fans all ticked off because it wasn't a blowout, but I am concerned with some of the performance we saw out of our team. That said, I think it was a minor blip, and we still won, and sans a couple plays it would have been about a 3 score win. I also think some of the lackluster play was due to just a weird vibe to that game, getting adjusted to a couple key defensive players being out, sick players, etc.

Considering the huge amount of trust I have in Vigen and this coaching staff, I think they come out ready to roll and take it to SFA. As one other poster pointed out, I don't think we're the best match up for them and I don't think they're going to be able to stop our running game.

As for the Griz game, another one that is tough for me to call. I haven't watched USD much but it looks like they're on a bit of a roll. They have a pretty good defense based on some of the scores I've seen, and their lines are probably as good if not better than UM. I did watch their first playoff game and their defenders were all over ACU all night. Linebackers looked pretty damn good. I'll predict a closer game here than our Cats, to long answer to your short question, The Cats have a better chance at winning this weekend than the Griz.

[91catAlum]

Who has a better chance of winning their quarterfinal game, and why? The Cats or the Griz?

Tough question, as I think both teams have at least an 80% chance to win this weekend.

Weird things can happen, but barring a bunch of turnovers or defensive/ST scores, both the Cats and griz win this weekend.

[MrGoodKat]

Who has a better chance of winning their quarterfinal game, and why? The Cats or the Griz?

The Cats by a lot. They’re a horrible matchup for SFA. It’s going to be a bloodbath.

The Griz should win, but they have to overcome another team that outclasses them on the lines.

[RyeCat]

I think Yale was the most physical team we saw all year and will probably (knock on wood) see again. The nerds also had a good game plan and not unlike what was said about why the Griz lost to us, if one or two more plays (stupid ass fake field goal or third down conversion ) goes our way, we’ve got momentum and score at least once more. After watching SFA play a few times, I feel good about this game. They are quick and Vlidak is accurate as hell and they like the big chunk plays like the Griz. Their #3 ranked defense just gave up over 400 yards of offense to ACU, including 200+ on the ground. They’re good or they wouldn’t be in the Quarterfinals, but I think Yale is a tougher out just from an eye test.

Cats had a good wake up call last week and we’ve had fantastic Friday night lights games in the playoffs.

[tetoncat]

Who do you think compares to SFA that Cats have played. ISU, Davis ?

[RyeCat]

ISU compares to some degree but SFA has smaller quicker receivers similar to UCD’s Gbatu. Vlidak likes to stand in the pocket and throw similar to Cooke. He doesn’t move around hardly at all and isn’t anything like Pinnick. Against ACU, he ran to the sideline a few times and maybe up the middle once.

[GoodTimesAllTheTime]

Losing the first home game to an opponent and then winning the second game away against the same opponent in the same season—is rare but has happened. The last time it happened was in 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks (lost to Saints in Week 3 home, beat them in Week 13 away), demonstrating a team's ability to adapt and flip the script in a rematch, often in the playoffs or later in the season.

It's only happened four times in the NFL since 2007.

Did you pull this “fact” from AI? Because this is totally wrong. The only time an NFL team would play a team twice is when they are in the same division or they meet in the playoffs, and neither of those apply to the 2019 Seahawks and Saints. I’m sure it’s happened more often than 4 times since 2007, considering that there are so many divisional rematches every year.

[MSUcat44]

Losing the first home game to an opponent and then winning the second game away against the same opponent in the same season—is rare but has happened. The last time it happened was in 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks (lost to Saints in Week 3 home, beat them in Week 13 away), demonstrating a team's ability to adapt and flip the script in a rematch, often in the playoffs or later in the season.

It's only happened four times in the NFL since 2007.

Did you pull this “fact” from AI? Because this is totally wrong. The only time an NFL team would play a team twice is when they are in the same division or they meet in the playoffs, and neither of those apply to the 2019 Seahawks and Saints. I’m sure it’s happened more often than 4 times since 2007, considering that there are so many divisional rematches every year.

It actually happened to the Vikings this year. We beat the bears week one at soldier field, then last month lost at home on a game winning field goal.

[Bocephus]

Losing the first home game to an opponent and then winning the second game away against the same opponent in the same season—is rare but has happened. The last time it happened was in 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks (lost to Saints in Week 3 home, beat them in Week 13 away), demonstrating a team's ability to adapt and flip the script in a rematch, often in the playoffs or later in the season.

It's only happened four times in the NFL since 2007.

Did you pull this “fact” from AI? Because this is totally wrong. The only time an NFL team would play a team twice is when they are in the same division or they meet in the playoffs, and neither of those apply to the 2019 Seahawks and Saints. I’m sure it’s happened more often than 4 times since 2007, considering that there are so many divisional rematches every year.

It actually happened to the Vikings this year. We beat the bears week one at soldier field, then last month lost at home on a game winning field goal.

Did you just compare the Cats to the Vikings?! Blasphemy!! lol.

[TomCat88]

Losing the first home game to an opponent and then winning the second game away against the same opponent in the same season—is rare but has happened. The last time it happened was in 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks (lost to Saints in Week 3 home, beat them in Week 13 away), demonstrating a team's ability to adapt and flip the script in a rematch, often in the playoffs or later in the season.

It's only happened four times in the NFL since 2007.

Did you pull this “fact” from AI? Because this is totally wrong. The only time an NFL team would play a team twice is when they are in the same division or they meet in the playoffs, and neither of those apply to the 2019 Seahawks and Saints. I’m sure it’s happened more often than 4 times since 2007, considering that there are so many divisional rematches every year.

It actually happened to the Vikings this year. We beat the bears week one at soldier field, then last month lost at home on a game winning field goal.

Did you just compare the Cats to the Vikings?! Blasphemy!! lol.

Well, leave it to me to have this end up in a comparison of the Cats and Vikings!! The Vikings haunt me.
Yes, I did pull it from AI. Guilty as charged! I plagiarized AI, LOL! I should've known it was all f'd up because I knew its first entry was wrong. I'm a towel.

I'll look for a better source. When I rephrased the question, all I got was this:
"While a precise total count is elusive without deep historical database access, it's a relatively rare but recurring event in the NFL when the road team wins both games in a single season series (like AFC/NFC East rivals), with examples existing across many decades, but it's hard to pinpoint an exact number because it's not a tracked, headline statistic; it happens maybe once every few years across the entire league." (Source: Google AI)


The point I'm making, which I think is self-evident, is that most of the "tough to beat a team twice" correct assessment is because NFL teams that are in the same division often win the home game and lose the road game, which leads to this misleading saying. The NFL is fairly balanced, despite that it doesn't happen much that the road team wins both games. The NFL has about a 53% home field edge, while college is around 63%. This is almost entirely due to their being more parity in the NFL, which makes sense as you've whittled the best players in the world into a pot of 1,600 players down from 30,000(?) college players.

More AI sez: About 20-30% of the time one team wins both games. 57.6% of the time the home teams win. So that leaves 13-23% for the road teams to win both games. Average is 18%. So, that's fairly regularly.

^^^For the record: I'm not one that likes to point out homefield being a big advantage even though coaches always refer to it and urge fans to get out to the game. I like to think that if the home team wins, that it's mainly because they're good on their own. I think giving the crowd too much credit is kind of selling the players short. But I not saying that I think it has no effect at all.

[rfischer94]

The gris are very explosive offensively, and having their start CB back certainly improves their defense. I still like our chances because the gris try to win with smoke and mirrors. The Cats try to win with superior line play.

[Prodigal Cat]

Who do you think compares to SFA that Cats have played. ISU, Davis ?

They are ISU with a better D. Good passing game and ok run. Odd front D with some playmakers. They tout their CB and they have some extremely good ones but the problem for them is we aren't dependent on 1 or 2 WR's. Sure Demmings can lock down Taco (although he wont because we move him in formation so much) and they can put Mayo on Long, but who's covering Steele? or King? or Jones out of the backfield? Or the TE's? They actually matchup better against the gris. We are a bad matchup for them.

[Joe Bobcat]

Who do you think compares to SFA that Cats have played. ISU, Davis ?

They are ISU with a better D. Good passing game and ok run. Odd front D with some playmakers. They tout their CB and they have some extremely good ones but the problem for them is we aren't dependent on 1 or 2 WR's. Sure Demmings can lock down Taco (although he wont because we move him in formation so much) and they can put Mayo on Long, but who's covering Steele? or King? or Jones out of the backfield? Or the TE's? They actually matchup better against the gris. We are a bad matchup for them.

And you haven't even mentioned Woods yet! Oh yeah there's also this running back that tends to come out of the backfield and catches a pass for a TD when you least expect it. Name withheld to preserve the surprise.

[Catprint]

Late Thursday so putting this in two threads since not much time to read it before Friday night.

Never one to be overly optimistic after a game such as Yale. Just seemed to me we are dismissing the game as a one-off. So i thought a bit about the conference games and first playoff game. My sense was in the last three games the O was not as strong or just off. So here is my chart and observation about the First Six Conference Games and the Last Three Games. Yes, I get it that the competition is tougher in the last three games but I think the defense has held up about the same.



Observations
1) 21 fewer points per game
2) 125 fewer yards per game
3) About same yards per play. Its just we have fewer plays and time of possession.
4) Biggest stat - Averaging 122 fewer passing yards. All lost yards are from passing. Our run game is generating the same number of yards but the passing attack is almost half as much.

Conclusions? Nothing I would hang my hat on but I see SFA trying to keep this from being a tit for tat high scoring game.
1) I think SFA stacks the box after getting beaten up on the run by ACU last week. They will dare us to pass.
2) They will play lots of man with their top corners and try to keep out anything deep.
3) By stacking the box, they will work to put pressure on Lamson and keep their hands up given we had 3 or 4 tipped passes last week.
4) It will be up to our O line and Davis and Jones to make or break the game.
5) I think our D can keep SFA in the low 20's.

Just my observation. I still think we can run the ball.

[technoCat]

We did not have 343 passing yards against Weber. Says 183 on ESPN.