2025 Cat-Griz Prediction Thread

[MSU Toddler]

Your Montana State Fighting Bobcats: 36
Them: 27

Basis
MSU - Average of MSU offense 47.4 average conference PPG & UM defense 24.3 conference average PPG = 35.85
Them - Average of UM offense 41.4 average conference PPG & MSU defense 11.7 conference average PPG = 26.55

[GoldstoneCat]

We have not allowed more than 17 to any FCS opponent. That may change slightly but not dramatically. I think we win 38-20.

[MrGoodKat]

I predict that this game is going to be decided by the presence or absence of big plays.

The Griz live on explosives. By my count, they have 61 touchdown drives on the season. 34 of them have come on five plays or fewer. If you take out the short drives that have resulted from turnovers and big returns, they have 21 drives this season of 50+ yards on 5 or fewer plays. On those 21 drives, they average over 18 yards/play.

On the other hand, the Cats have allowed four touchdown drives on the season on five plays or less. Three of them were against SDSU, and they were short fields. They allowed a 21 yd drive on two plays after the blocked punt and two 25 yard TD drives in overtime. They have only allowed a drive or 50+ on five or fewer one time: Cooke's two play, 75 yard strike against ISU.

So you have one team that practically lives off of explosives and another team that almost never allows them. Something will have to give and I think whichever side has their way in this regard will win the game.

[Mtcatfan]

35-0 Cats.

[MrGoodKat]

I predict that this game is going to be decided by the presence or absence of big plays.

The Griz live on explosives. By my count, they have 61 touchdown drives on the season. 34 of them have come on five plays or fewer. If you take out the short drives that have resulted from turnovers and big returns, they have 21 drives this season of 50+ yards on 5 or fewer plays. On those 21 drives, they average over 18 yards/play.

On the other hand, the Cats have allowed four touchdown drives on the season on five plays or less. Three of them were against SDSU, and they were short fields. They allowed a 21 yd drive on two plays after the blocked punt and two 25 yard TD drives in overtime. They have only allowed a drive or 50+ on five or fewer one time: Cooke's two play, 75 yard strike against ISU.

So you have one team that practically lives off of explosives and another team that almost never allows them. Something will have to give and I think whichever side has their way in this regard will win the game.

Another way to look at it:

The Griz, by my count, have produced 17 plays of 40+ yards on the season.

The Cats, outside of Oregon, have allowed 2 such plays, both to Jordan Cooke and ISU: a 40 yd pass and a 69 yd pass.

[RockyBearCat]

34-11 Bobcats over pandaz

[TomCat88]

I predict that this game is going to be decided by the presence or absence of big plays.

The Griz live on explosives. By my count, they have 61 touchdown drives on the season. 34 of them have come on five plays or fewer. If you take out the short drives that have resulted from turnovers and big returns, they have 21 drives this season of 50+ yards on 5 or fewer plays. On those 21 drives, they average over 18 yards/play.

On the other hand, the Cats have allowed four touchdown drives on the season on five plays or less. Three of them were against SDSU, and they were short fields. They allowed a 21 yd drive on two plays after the blocked punt and two 25 yard TD drives in overtime. They have only allowed a drive or 50+ on five or fewer one time: Cooke's two play, 75 yard strike against ISU.

So you have one team that practically lives off of explosives and another team that almost never allows them. Something will have to give and I think whichever side has their way in this regard will win the game.

Another way to look at it:

The Griz, by my count, have produced 17 plays of 40+ yards on the season.

The Cats, outside of Oregon, have allowed 2 such plays, both to Jordan Cooke and ISU: a 40 yd pass and a 69 yd pass.

How many 40+ does MSU's offense have? How many 40+ has UM allowed?

I see MSU's 40+ allowed were to Idaho State. Who were the 17 40+ plays by UM against?

What is it if you include INT, fumble, punt and kickoff returns?

[MrGoodKat]

I predict that this game is going to be decided by the presence or absence of big plays.

The Griz live on explosives. By my count, they have 61 touchdown drives on the season. 34 of them have come on five plays or fewer. If you take out the short drives that have resulted from turnovers and big returns, they have 21 drives this season of 50+ yards on 5 or fewer plays. On those 21 drives, they average over 18 yards/play.

On the other hand, the Cats have allowed four touchdown drives on the season on five plays or less. Three of them were against SDSU, and they were short fields. They allowed a 21 yd drive on two plays after the blocked punt and two 25 yard TD drives in overtime. They have only allowed a drive or 50+ on five or fewer one time: Cooke's two play, 75 yard strike against ISU.

So you have one team that practically lives off of explosives and another team that almost never allows them. Something will have to give and I think whichever side has their way in this regard will win the game.

Another way to look at it:

The Griz, by my count, have produced 17 plays of 40+ yards on the season.

The Cats, outside of Oregon, have allowed 2 such plays, both to Jordan Cooke and ISU: a 40 yd pass and a 69 yd pass.

How many 40+ does MSU's offense have? How many 40+ has UM allowed?

I see MSU's 40+ allowed were to Idaho State. Who were the 17 40+ plays by UM against?

What is it if you include INT, fumble, punt and kickoff returns?

OK, I may be missing 1 or 2 here or there, but this is what I've got.

I'm throwing out Oregon and so consequently, I'm also throwing out Central Washington for UM (the stats in the play-by-play are wonky for that game anyways).

With that, the Cats have 13 offensive plays of 40+ yards:

-45 yd TD Pass Vs. USD
-45 yd run vs. MH
-42 yd TD Pass Vs. EW
-45 yd TD Pass Vs. EW
-52 yd Pass Vs. EW
-54 yd run vs. EW
-79 yd TD Pass @NAU
-49 yd Pass @NAU
-45 yd Pass @UNC
-67 yd TD Pass @UNC
-44 yd run @UNC
-52 yd TD Run Vs. WEB
-48 yd run Vs UCD

They've allowed 2 such plays:

-40 yd pass Vs. ISU
-69 yd TD pass Vs. ISU

Minus Central Washington, the Griz have 12 offensive plays of 40+ yards:

-56 yd pass vs. UND
-69 yd TD run vs. INDST
-62 yd TD pass vs. INDST
-54 yd pass @ISU
-43 yd TD pass vs. SH
-51 yd TD pass vs. SH
-49 yd TD pass vs. SH
-64 yd TD pass @SAC
-62 yd TD pass @WEB
-61 yd pass @WEB
-60 yd pass @WEB
-60 yd TD run @PSU

They have allowed 11 such plays on the season:

-40 yd run, UND
-51 yd TD pass, INDST
-55 yd TD run, INDST
-79 yd TD run, INDST
-62 yd pass, ID
-47 yd pass, ID
-45 yd pass, ID
-44 yd pass, CP
-63 yd TD pass, SAC
-48 yd pass, SAC
-75 yd TD run, PSU

I'm not going to put in the time to comb for the rest of it.

So the Cats have been similarly explosive on offense, but far better at preventing explosives. However, the other key difference I see is that the Cats are less reliant on explosive plays because their ground game is so much better.

[Catsrgrood]

I predict that whoever gets the score correct or even close to correct will be by way of dumb luck.

This game has been so unpredictable I don’t know how anyone can claim to be confident in how it will go.

I feel strongly that we have the better team and should come out on top. What that looks like? No clue.

I would not be surprised to win by 20, I would not be surprised to win by 3.
I’d be disappointed but not surprised if we lose by 3.

The only outcome I’d be surprised, but in no way shocked by, would be if we lose by 14+

I think the Cats are better than that, but look no further than the last two trips to Missoula to know that it can happen.

[91catAlum]

Anybody know the opening line on the game yet?

My guess is griz -3.5 to open.

[catatac]

Anybody know the opening line on the game yet?

My guess is griz -3.5 to open.

Yep, I was thinking 2.5.

[coloradocat]

Lamson will be the deciding factor in which team wins the game.

[Montanabob]

35-14 cats

[91catAlum]

Lamson will be the deciding factor in which team wins the game.

I was also thinking this.

The Cats defense is good enough to hold the griz to 24 or fewer points. The Cats offense is plenty good enough to score more than that against a mediocre griz D. But it totally depends on Lamson. If he comes out pressing and the offense sputters early as we saw yesterday and at NAU etc, then he could melt down in the hostile environment and we lose. If he can find some composure early, complete some balls and find his groove, then the Cats should have their way.

[LTown Cat]

Cats 30
pandas 23

[nanacat]

Lamson will be the deciding factor in which team wins the game.

I was also thinking this.

The Cats defense is good enough to hold the griz to 24 or fewer points. The Cats offense is plenty good enough to score more than that against a mediocre griz D. But it totally depends on Lamson. If he comes out pressing and the offense sputters early as we saw yesterday and at NAU etc, then he could melt down in the hostile environment and we lose. If he can find some composure early, complete some balls and find his groove, then the Cats should have their way.

I agree with this too. Lamson is extremely competitive but also emotional in that, gets chirppy, in your face, and particularly, the crowd could get to him.

Tommy was super competitive also but so much more stoic, more businesslike, and last year's team followed Tommy's lead of being humble, serious, stoic. Not that being that way is bad, since it led to an undefeated season until the NC.

That being said, this year's team is salty, has alot of swagger, and Lamson's leadership is likely a part of that. Perhaps it's going to take that type of attitude, personality, to win over there.

[coloradocat]

Lamson will be the deciding factor in which team wins the game.

I was also thinking this.

The Cats defense is good enough to hold the griz to 24 or fewer points. The Cats offense is plenty good enough to score more than that against a mediocre griz D. But it totally depends on Lamson. If he comes out pressing and the offense sputters early as we saw yesterday and at NAU etc, then he could melt down in the hostile environment and we lose. If he can find some composure early, complete some balls and find his groove, then the Cats should have their way.

I agree with this too. Lamson is extremely competitive but also emotional in that, gets chirppy, in your face, and particularly, the crowd could get to him.

Tommy was super competitive also but so much more stoic, more businesslike, and last year's team followed Tommy's lead of being humble, serious, stoic. Not that being that way is bad, since it led to an undefeated season until the NC.

That being said, this year's team is salty, has alot of swagger, and Lamson's leadership is likely a part of that. Perhaps it's going to take that type of attitude, personality, to win over there.

He admitted that his emotions impacted his start last night and that was with the most favorable environment possible. The game had special meaning to him because of the opponent and his family being at the game and I imagine the bright lights of ESPN may have also played a role.

The guys have been telling him about how big the game is and I'm kind of scared that he'll understand that too well. He may be the one guy that will overreact rather than underreact to the game.

The key to the game will be how quickly he can settle in and how much damage the griz can inflict before he calms down. After that I expect us to roll but who knows what the scoreboard will look like at that point.

[OldGriz]

Montana — 31
Cats — 21

[KIX]

UC Davis game came at an opportune time. Saw a good offense with a scrambling QB likely better than AhYawn. Big play ability was there with UCD keeping cats aware of #0 and #8. UCD D was solid but we finally broke them. dUMb D may be on par but I feel lesser overall (Dline/DB's).
Good Guys 35
Buttheads 21
P.S. keep heads on a swivel for Boobies cheap shots.

[mule]

All pressure is on them we need to just go play ball and kick their donkeys. 34 to 21 CATS!