Big Sky Over/Unders

[Prodigal Cat]

The Bluebloods guys have been doing conference previews and doing every teams O/U games won. They used some different metrics to set the numbers and Zach McKinnell is rapidly approaching Herder in terms of FCS knowledge so I'm using their numbers here. I don't think there is a book out there that sets these numbers to actually bet on.

Starting from the bottom:

2.5 UNC and Cal Poly
I really think Ed Lamb is a good coach and if he would have known the Weber job was going to open with Jay Hill leaving a week after he accepted the UNC job I think he would have much preferred that one. I also think Weber would have continued as a formidable BSC team if he had. But the wheels just spin in Greeley and I there is nothing that says they are building something there. They host Chadron to begin the season and finish with
PSU (more on them later). I think they get 2 but can't find a third. UNDER

Cal Poly gets 2 gimmes in the noncon with San Diego and Western Oregon. They would only need one more and also host PSU. I think they get 3. OVER


3.5 PSU
I don't think there is a team in the Big Sky that has had some of the individual talent the Vikings have had and done less with it. Part of that is the nonconference schedule they get forced to play every year and this is year is no different. 2 FBS and 2 top or near top 25 FCS. Chachere is gone and a bunch of other talent including their best LB to the griz. I have a hard time finding 2 sure wins and they could be the bottom of the conference. UNDER


4.5 ISU
The Bengals are one of the few teams that return a QB with starting experience and they are much better roster than what was the Ragle disaster. I actually think they will win a game or 2 that would be pegged as a loss preseason. They have Lincoln on their schedule, host Cal Poly and Weber, and play UNC. 5-7 6-6 isn't a stretch. OVER


5.5 Weber and EWU
Man what a decline for what used to be the 2 powers of the Conference not that long ago.

You could say that Weber was inconsistent last season but really they were just bad. It's tough to win in Wagriz but they just exposed what was a really bad defense. Props. It was a blip and Mental is probably on his way out. I think he's in over his head and Weber continues its slide. UNDER

EWU has 2 tough matchups to begin but then play the worst MVFC team not named Murray State in UNI and Western Ill. They host PSU, UNC and go to Cal Poly. They always win a game on the red turf they shouldn't. OVER


7.5 Idaho, Davis, and NAU
Idaho does return some Oline talent and some lettermen from last years team. but 2 FBS in the noncon and not sure they have replaced the talent they lost in the last couple seasons. I think 7-5 is the number so. UNDER

Davis is in my mind one of the most disrespected teams in this conference this year. Yeah they lost Larison and Hastings. They still bring back 2 all conference offensive lineman, wideout and tight end, and oh, the preseason defensive player of year. I think Plough will bring the young QB up to speed and be the hottest coach not named Vigen by the end of the season. OVER

NAU is the opposite of Davis. They hit the schedule jackpot last year by not playing Davis and MSU. Every time they played a team with a winning record they lost and mostly got stomped. It seems like every handful of years they become the hot team in the off-season to be good and they always fall short. Pennington is fine but I wouldn't book playoffs because of him. Schedule is harder this year. UNDER (Bet of the year for me)


7.5 Sac St
Who knows. The expected outcome of this team is about as wide as any team in the Conference, no country. They could gel and be one of the best teams in the FCS or it could be a fun to watch implosion. I wouldn't bet on this one but if I did it's that they lose the first 2 (SDSU and Nevada) but get on a roll after. OVER


8.5 UM
This is a 7 or 8 win team with a competitive schedule. Its been posted on here how much this team is going to be completely new from last season. I guess I think they lose in Sac St and against the Cats. Do they have 2 other losses? UND and one of the Idaho teams? I think they do. I think 8-4 is likely. 2023 happened because they 4 and 5 year guys on defense all over the 2 deep and teams kept kicking to Bergen. Other than that they have been a 5-3 BSC team under Hauck 2.0. 8-4 is the number so. UNDER Yeah I'm biased


9.5 Cats
Lose to OU yes but I don't think the Cats lose to both SDSU and UM. Maybe one of those but not both. OVER

[MSUBobcat04]

The Bluebloods guys have been doing conference previews and doing every teams O/U games won. They used some different metrics to set the numbers and Zach McKinnell is rapidly approaching Herder in terms of FCS knowledge so I'm using their numbers here. I don't think there is a book out there that sets these numbers to actually bet on.

Starting from the bottom:

2.5 UNC and Cal Poly
I really think Ed Lamb is a good coach and if he would have known the Weber job was going to open with Jay Hill leaving a week after he accepted the UNC job I think he would have much preferred that one. I also think Weber would have continued as a formidable BSC team if he had. But the wheels just spin in Greeley and I there is nothing that says they are building something there. They host Chadron to begin the season and finish with
PSU (more on them later). I think they get 2 but can't find a third. UNDER

Cal Poly gets 2 gimmes in the noncon with San Diego and Western Oregon. They would only need one more and also host PSU. I think they get 3. OVER


3.5 PSU
I don't think there is a team in the Big Sky that has had some of the individual talent the Vikings have had and done less with it. Part of that is the nonconference schedule they get forced to play every year and this is year is no different. 2 FBS and 2 top or near top 25 FCS. Chachere is gone and a bunch of other talent including their best LB to the griz. I have a hard time finding 2 sure wins and they could be the bottom of the conference. UNDER


4.5 ISU
The Bengals are one of the few teams that return a QB with starting experience and they are much better roster than what was the Ragle disaster. I actually think they will win a game or 2 that would be pegged as a loss preseason. They have Lincoln on their schedule, host Cal Poly and Weber, and play UNC. 5-7 6-6 isn't a stretch. OVER


5.5 Weber and EWU
Man what a decline for what used to be the 2 powers of the Conference not that long ago.

You could say that Weber was inconsistent last season but really they were just bad. It's tough to win in Wagriz but they just exposed what was a really bad defense. Props. It was a blip and Mental is probably on his way out. I think he's in over his head and Weber continues its slide. UNDER

EWU has 2 tough matchups to begin but then play the worst MVFC team not named Murray State in UNI and Western Ill. They host PSU, UNC and go to Cal Poly. They always win a game on the red turf they shouldn't. OVER


7.5 Idaho, Davis, and NAU
Idaho does return some Oline talent and some lettermen from last years team. but 2 FBS in the noncon and not sure they have replaced the talent they lost in the last couple seasons. I think 7-5 is the number so. UNDER

Davis is in my mind one of the most disrespected teams in this conference this year. Yeah they lost Larison and Hastings. They still bring back 2 all conference offensive lineman, wideout and tight end, and oh, the preseason defensive player of year. I think Plough will bring the young QB up to speed and be the hottest coach not named Vigen by the end of the season. OVER

NAU is the opposite of Davis. They hit the schedule jackpot last year by not playing Davis and MSU. Every time they played a team with a winning record they lost and mostly got stomped. It seems like every handful of years they become the hot team in the off-season to be good and they always fall short. Pennington is fine but I wouldn't book playoffs because of him. Schedule is harder this year. UNDER (Bet of the year for me)


7.5 Sac St
Who knows. The expected outcome of this team is about as wide as any team in the Conference, no country. They could gel and be one of the best teams in the FCS or it could be a fun to watch implosion. I wouldn't bet on this one but if I did it's that they lose the first 2 (SDSU and Nevada) but get on a roll after. OVER


8.5 UM
This is a 7 or 8 win team with a competitive schedule. Its been posted on here how much this team is going to be completely new from last season. I guess I think they lose in Sac St and against the Cats. Do they have 2 other losses? UND and one of the Idaho teams? I think they do. I think 8-4 is likely. 2023 happened because they 4 and 5 year guys on defense all over the 2 deep and teams kept kicking to Bergen. Other than that they have been a 5-3 BSC team under Hauck 2.0. 8-4 is the number so. UNDER Yeah I'm biased


9.5 Cats
Lose to OU yes but I don't think the Cats lose to both SDSU and UM. Maybe one of those but not both. OVER

I haven't gone over each teams' schedule so I can't give my guess for each over/under, but your reasonings seem pretty sound overall. Couple minor corrections/comments. Poly LOST @ USD just last year and the Toreros are the preseason favorites to win the PFL, so calling the game in San Diego a gimme is a stretch. Next, a correction: WIU is no longer in the MVFC; they joined the OVC in 2024.

I also do not have the same faith as you that EWU beats UNI in Cedar Falls. EWU is tabbed as the 8th/9th best team in the Big Sky, while UNI is the 8th best team in the MVFC. I'm not confident that the 8th best BSC team beats the 8th best MVFC team when the MVFC is the slightly better conference, especially on their field with an EWU team whose only road wins last year were against the 2 of the worst teams in the conference (Sac and UNC). Looking at their schedule, I take the UNDER for EWU. Possibly even under 4.5.

[Prodigal Cat]

The Bluebloods guys have been doing conference previews and doing every teams O/U games won. They used some different metrics to set the numbers and Zach McKinnell is rapidly approaching Herder in terms of FCS knowledge so I'm using their numbers here. I don't think there is a book out there that sets these numbers to actually bet on.

Starting from the bottom:

2.5 UNC and Cal Poly
I really think Ed Lamb is a good coach and if he would have known the Weber job was going to open with Jay Hill leaving a week after he accepted the UNC job I think he would have much preferred that one. I also think Weber would have continued as a formidable BSC team if he had. But the wheels just spin in Greeley and I there is nothing that says they are building something there. They host Chadron to begin the season and finish with
PSU (more on them later). I think they get 2 but can't find a third. UNDER

Cal Poly gets 2 gimmes in the noncon with San Diego and Western Oregon. They would only need one more and also host PSU. I think they get 3. OVER


3.5 PSU
I don't think there is a team in the Big Sky that has had some of the individual talent the Vikings have had and done less with it. Part of that is the nonconference schedule they get forced to play every year and this is year is no different. 2 FBS and 2 top or near top 25 FCS. Chachere is gone and a bunch of other talent including their best LB to the griz. I have a hard time finding 2 sure wins and they could be the bottom of the conference. UNDER


4.5 ISU
The Bengals are one of the few teams that return a QB with starting experience and they are much better roster than what was the Ragle disaster. I actually think they will win a game or 2 that would be pegged as a loss preseason. They have Lincoln on their schedule, host Cal Poly and Weber, and play UNC. 5-7 6-6 isn't a stretch. OVER


5.5 Weber and EWU
Man what a decline for what used to be the 2 powers of the Conference not that long ago.

You could say that Weber was inconsistent last season but really they were just bad. It's tough to win in Wagriz but they just exposed what was a really bad defense. Props. It was a blip and Mental is probably on his way out. I think he's in over his head and Weber continues its slide. UNDER

EWU has 2 tough matchups to begin but then play the worst MVFC team not named Murray State in UNI and Western Ill. They host PSU, UNC and go to Cal Poly. They always win a game on the red turf they shouldn't. OVER


7.5 Idaho, Davis, and NAU
Idaho does return some Oline talent and some lettermen from last years team. but 2 FBS in the noncon and not sure they have replaced the talent they lost in the last couple seasons. I think 7-5 is the number so. UNDER

Davis is in my mind one of the most disrespected teams in this conference this year. Yeah they lost Larison and Hastings. They still bring back 2 all conference offensive lineman, wideout and tight end, and oh, the preseason defensive player of year. I think Plough will bring the young QB up to speed and be the hottest coach not named Vigen by the end of the season. OVER

NAU is the opposite of Davis. They hit the schedule jackpot last year by not playing Davis and MSU. Every time they played a team with a winning record they lost and mostly got stomped. It seems like every handful of years they become the hot team in the off-season to be good and they always fall short. Pennington is fine but I wouldn't book playoffs because of him. Schedule is harder this year. UNDER (Bet of the year for me)


7.5 Sac St
Who knows. The expected outcome of this team is about as wide as any team in the Conference, no country. They could gel and be one of the best teams in the FCS or it could be a fun to watch implosion. I wouldn't bet on this one but if I did it's that they lose the first 2 (SDSU and Nevada) but get on a roll after. OVER


8.5 UM
This is a 7 or 8 win team with a competitive schedule. Its been posted on here how much this team is going to be completely new from last season. I guess I think they lose in Sac St and against the Cats. Do they have 2 other losses? UND and one of the Idaho teams? I think they do. I think 8-4 is likely. 2023 happened because they 4 and 5 year guys on defense all over the 2 deep and teams kept kicking to Bergen. Other than that they have been a 5-3 BSC team under Hauck 2.0. 8-4 is the number so. UNDER Yeah I'm biased


9.5 Cats
Lose to OU yes but I don't think the Cats lose to both SDSU and UM. Maybe one of those but not both. OVER

I haven't gone over each teams' schedule so I can't give my guess for each over/under, but your reasonings seem pretty sound overall. Couple minor corrections/comments. Poly LOST @ USD just last year and the Toreros are the preseason favorites to win the PFL, so calling the game in San Diego a gimme is a stretch. Next, a correction: WIU is no longer in the MVFC; they joined the OVC in 2024.

I also do not have the same faith as you that EWU beats UNI in Cedar Falls. EWU is tabbed as the 8th/9th best team in the Big Sky, while UNI is the 8th best team in the MVFC. I'm not confident that the 8th best BSC team beats the 8th best MVFC team when the MVFC is the slightly better conference, especially on their field with an EWU team whose only road wins last year were against the 2 of the worst teams in the conference (Sac and UNC). Looking at their schedule, I take the UNDER for EWU. Possibly even under 4.5.

I worded that poorly. I know WIU isn't in the MVFC. I was trying to say that EWU is playing UNI as the worst team besides Murray St in the MVFC and also plays WIU. UNI went 3-9 last season and is going through a coaching change after their longtime coach retired (probably forced out).

Also Drake beat EWU last year so yeah sometimes a non-scholly team beats a BSC team. That said, the Big Sky team should always be a favorite against a Pioneer team.

[Montanabob]

The Bluebloods guys have been doing conference previews and doing every teams O/U games won. They used some different metrics to set the numbers and Zach McKinnell is rapidly approaching Herder in terms of FCS knowledge so I'm using their numbers here. I don't think there is a book out there that sets these numbers to actually bet on.

Starting from the bottom:

2.5 UNC and Cal Poly
I really think Ed Lamb is a good coach and if he would have known the Weber job was going to open with Jay Hill leaving a week after he accepted the UNC job I think he would have much preferred that one. I also think Weber would have continued as a formidable BSC team if he had. But the wheels just spin in Greeley and I there is nothing that says they are building something there. They host Chadron to begin the season and finish with
PSU (more on them later). I think they get 2 but can't find a third. UNDER

Cal Poly gets 2 gimmes in the noncon with San Diego and Western Oregon. They would only need one more and also host PSU. I think they get 3. OVER


3.5 PSU
I don't think there is a team in the Big Sky that has had some of the individual talent the Vikings have had and done less with it. Part of that is the nonconference schedule they get forced to play every year and this is year is no different. 2 FBS and 2 top or near top 25 FCS. Chachere is gone and a bunch of other talent including their best LB to the griz. I have a hard time finding 2 sure wins and they could be the bottom of the conference. UNDER


4.5 ISU
The Bengals are one of the few teams that return a QB with starting experience and they are much better roster than what was the Ragle disaster. I actually think they will win a game or 2 that would be pegged as a loss preseason. They have Lincoln on their schedule, host Cal Poly and Weber, and play UNC. 5-7 6-6 isn't a stretch. OVER


5.5 Weber and EWU
Man what a decline for what used to be the 2 powers of the Conference not that long ago.

You could say that Weber was inconsistent last season but really they were just bad. It's tough to win in Wagriz but they just exposed what was a really bad defense. Props. It was a blip and Mental is probably on his way out. I think he's in over his head and Weber continues its slide. UNDER

EWU has 2 tough matchups to begin but then play the worst MVFC team not named Murray State in UNI and Western Ill. They host PSU, UNC and go to Cal Poly. They always win a game on the red turf they shouldn't. OVER


7.5 Idaho, Davis, and NAU
Idaho does return some Oline talent and some lettermen from last years team. but 2 FBS in the noncon and not sure they have replaced the talent they lost in the last couple seasons. I think 7-5 is the number so. UNDER

Davis is in my mind one of the most disrespected teams in this conference this year. Yeah they lost Larison and Hastings. They still bring back 2 all conference offensive lineman, wideout and tight end, and oh, the preseason defensive player of year. I think Plough will bring the young QB up to speed and be the hottest coach not named Vigen by the end of the season. OVER

NAU is the opposite of Davis. They hit the schedule jackpot last year by not playing Davis and MSU. Every time they played a team with a winning record they lost and mostly got stomped. It seems like every handful of years they become the hot team in the off-season to be good and they always fall short. Pennington is fine but I wouldn't book playoffs because of him. Schedule is harder this year. UNDER (Bet of the year for me)


7.5 Sac St
Who knows. The expected outcome of this team is about as wide as any team in the Conference, no country. They could gel and be one of the best teams in the FCS or it could be a fun to watch implosion. I wouldn't bet on this one but if I did it's that they lose the first 2 (SDSU and Nevada) but get on a roll after. OVER


8.5 UM
This is a 7 or 8 win team with a competitive schedule. Its been posted on here how much this team is going to be completely new from last season. I guess I think they lose in Sac St and against the Cats. Do they have 2 other losses? UND and one of the Idaho teams? I think they do. I think 8-4 is likely. 2023 happened because they 4 and 5 year guys on defense all over the 2 deep and teams kept kicking to Bergen. Other than that they have been a 5-3 BSC team under Hauck 2.0. 8-4 is the number so. UNDER Yeah I'm biased


9.5 Cats
Lose to OU yes but I don't think the Cats lose to both SDSU and UM. Maybe one of those but not both. OVER

I haven't gone over each teams' schedule so I can't give my guess for each over/under, but your reasonings seem pretty sound overall. Couple minor corrections/comments. Poly LOST @ USD just last year and the Toreros are the preseason favorites to win the PFL, so calling the game in San Diego a gimme is a stretch. Next, a correction: WIU is no longer in the MVFC; they joined the OVC in 2024.

I also do not have the same faith as you that EWU beats UNI in Cedar Falls. EWU is tabbed as the 8th/9th best team in the Big Sky, while UNI is the 8th best team in the MVFC. I'm not confident that the 8th best BSC team beats the 8th best MVFC team when the MVFC is the slightly better conference, especially on their field with an EWU team whose only road wins last year were against the 2 of the worst teams in the conference (Sac and UNC). Looking at their schedule, I take the UNDER for EWU. Possibly even under 4.5.

I worded that poorly. I know WIU isn't in the MVFC. I was trying to say that EWU is playing UNI as the worst team besides Murray St in the MVFC and also plays WIU. UNI went 3-9 last season and is going through a coaching change after their longtime coach retired (probably forced out).

Also Drake beat EWU last year so yeah sometimes a non-scholly team beats a BSC team. That said, the Big Sky team should always be a favorite against a Pioneer team.

and when do we get USD to offer scholarships and are a BSC football team so we can drop UNCO/pSU back to D2?

[iaafan]

The Bluebloods guys have been doing conference previews and doing every teams O/U games won. They used some different metrics to set the numbers and Zach McKinnell is rapidly approaching Herder in terms of FCS knowledge so I'm using their numbers here. I don't think there is a book out there that sets these numbers to actually bet on.

Starting from the bottom:

2.5 UNC and Cal Poly
I really think Ed Lamb is a good coach and if he would have known the Weber job was going to open with Jay Hill leaving a week after he accepted the UNC job I think he would have much preferred that one. I also think Weber would have continued as a formidable BSC team if he had. But the wheels just spin in Greeley and I there is nothing that says they are building something there. They host Chadron to begin the season and finish with
PSU (more on them later). I think they get 2 but can't find a third. UNDER

Cal Poly gets 2 gimmes in the noncon with San Diego and Western Oregon. They would only need one more and also host PSU. I think they get 3. OVER


3.5 PSU
I don't think there is a team in the Big Sky that has had some of the individual talent the Vikings have had and done less with it. Part of that is the nonconference schedule they get forced to play every year and this is year is no different. 2 FBS and 2 top or near top 25 FCS. Chachere is gone and a bunch of other talent including their best LB to the griz. I have a hard time finding 2 sure wins and they could be the bottom of the conference. UNDER


4.5 ISU
The Bengals are one of the few teams that return a QB with starting experience and they are much better roster than what was the Ragle disaster. I actually think they will win a game or 2 that would be pegged as a loss preseason. They have Lincoln on their schedule, host Cal Poly and Weber, and play UNC. 5-7 6-6 isn't a stretch. OVER


5.5 Weber and EWU
Man what a decline for what used to be the 2 powers of the Conference not that long ago.

You could say that Weber was inconsistent last season but really they were just bad. It's tough to win in Wagriz but they just exposed what was a really bad defense. Props. It was a blip and Mental is probably on his way out. I think he's in over his head and Weber continues its slide. UNDER

EWU has 2 tough matchups to begin but then play the worst MVFC team not named Murray State in UNI and Western Ill. They host PSU, UNC and go to Cal Poly. They always win a game on the red turf they shouldn't. OVER


7.5 Idaho, Davis, and NAU
Idaho does return some Oline talent and some lettermen from last years team. but 2 FBS in the noncon and not sure they have replaced the talent they lost in the last couple seasons. I think 7-5 is the number so. UNDER

Davis is in my mind one of the most disrespected teams in this conference this year. Yeah they lost Larison and Hastings. They still bring back 2 all conference offensive lineman, wideout and tight end, and oh, the preseason defensive player of year. I think Plough will bring the young QB up to speed and be the hottest coach not named Vigen by the end of the season. OVER

NAU is the opposite of Davis. They hit the schedule jackpot last year by not playing Davis and MSU. Every time they played a team with a winning record they lost and mostly got stomped. It seems like every handful of years they become the hot team in the off-season to be good and they always fall short. Pennington is fine but I wouldn't book playoffs because of him. Schedule is harder this year. UNDER (Bet of the year for me)


7.5 Sac St
Who knows. The expected outcome of this team is about as wide as any team in the Conference, no country. They could gel and be one of the best teams in the FCS or it could be a fun to watch implosion. I wouldn't bet on this one but if I did it's that they lose the first 2 (SDSU and Nevada) but get on a roll after. OVER


8.5 UM
This is a 7 or 8 win team with a competitive schedule. Its been posted on here how much this team is going to be completely new from last season. I guess I think they lose in Sac St and against the Cats. Do they have 2 other losses? UND and one of the Idaho teams? I think they do. I think 8-4 is likely. 2023 happened because they 4 and 5 year guys on defense all over the 2 deep and teams kept kicking to Bergen. Other than that they have been a 5-3 BSC team under Hauck 2.0. 8-4 is the number so. UNDER Yeah I'm biased


9.5 Cats
Lose to OU yes but I don't think the Cats lose to both SDSU and UM. Maybe one of those but not both. OVER

MSU's toughest FCS opponents are SDSU and UCD. You're not biased with your 8-4 record for UM. They lost to Weber last year at home. Nearly lost to Missouri State and had trouble with W. Carolina, NAU, PSU and Tenn. St at home. Lost by 16 at home to UC Davis. They don't look any better than they were last year. They have UND, Idaho, EWU and MSU at home. CWU is a good D2 team. They'll struggle at ISU, SAC and Weber this year.