Big Sky Over/Unders

Discuss anything and everything relating to Bobcat Football here.

Moderators: rtb, kmax, SonomaCat

User avatar
catatac
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 9004
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 1:37 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by catatac » Mon Jul 08, 2024 2:47 pm

Common Cat wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:40 pm
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 8:50 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:34 pm
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 5:19 pm


UM 10.5
Honestly the only reason I think the ranking is so high is due to the way the season went last year. This isn't last year and for a decade and a half the Griz have really underperformed. This season they have significant questions at some of the most important spots on the field.


UNDER
I think the ranking is high because UM has a really good defensive scheme. It doesn't seem to matter who they plug in to the spots, it just works for them. It's been like that for a few years, so I imagine the players have really bought into it. So, despite the high turnover on that side of the ball, the expectation is for that to be the case in 2025.

The offense was stale through the Idaho game, but that win sparked them and they amazingly averaged nearly 500 ypg through the rest of the regular season -- an uptick of about 200 ypg. They came back to earth in the playoffs and it's really tough to say what that will look like on offense this season. The special teams carried them vs Furman and NDSU.

No idea what the transfer portal has done for them so far. Perhaps they've picked up some players there, which is adding to the optimism.
This is the same scheme that in '22 had MSU, NDSU, and Idaho put up 55, 49, 30 against it respectively.
Last year was the aberration, not the norm and I give quite a bit of the credit to Gubner. The way he played in the Brawl last season was the main reason why he won MVP.
Well yes and no. Still the 3-3-5 stack but they ran different coverages in the back end last year. They also had different coaches including Tim Hauck and a certain Roger Cooper. They were improved last year on defense.
I agree, they had a pretty damn good D last year. I also believe they will take a step back in 2024. As was pointed out, I think to make that 3-3-5 REALLY effective you really need that beast in there like they had in Gubner. They're not replacing him, just like we're likely not replacing Seabass. Also, they lost a LOT of excellent players off that defense, specifically in the back end.


Great time to be a BOBCAT!

User avatar
coloradocat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4998
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by coloradocat » Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am

Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.


Eastwood, did not make it. Ball out! Recovered, by Montana State!! The Bobcats hold!!! The Bobcats hold!!!

User avatar
BleedingBLue
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6236
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:00 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by BleedingBLue » Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm

coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.



CodyCat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2159
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:49 pm
Location: Cody, WY

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by CodyCat » Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am

BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.


Hating the griz since 02.

User avatar
coloradocat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4998
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by coloradocat » Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:16 am

CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.
I think saying PSU will win 3 road games is too bullish. I'd be surprised if they win 3 games total.


Eastwood, did not make it. Ball out! Recovered, by Montana State!! The Bobcats hold!!! The Bobcats hold!!!

Colter_Nuanez
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 9766
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:55 pm
Location: Big Sky Country
Contact:

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by Colter_Nuanez » Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:59 am

CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.
I think talent-wise, especially with QB Dante Chachere and RB Quincy Craig, DL Kennedy Freeman, Portland State is atop the third tier in the Big Sky. Top tier is Montana State & Montana; second tier is UC Davis, Sac State and Idaho; Portland State is on par or better in terms of talent than Weber State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona and certainly better than Idaho State, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado.

They MUST win at Weber in Week 2 and at Idaho State Week 7 for their season to have any momentum. When Bruce Barnum's teams have some steam, they are always a tough out. When they don't, they roll over and pack it in.

If Portland State can get to the Montana State week with a 3-4 record, they will be in it during that MSU-Sac-Idaho-UM gauntlet. But if you start 0-6, which is totally feasible, or even 1-5, going into that murder's row....good luck!

The over-under win totals (which I'm thrilled is generating discussion) are not my picks for how many games I think PSU will win. I'm playing the book. I am the house. I'm setting the line. Portland State being at 2.5 is actually generous by book standards....going into the season, I bet the only game they are definitely favored in is Northern Colorado at home. Could be at Chattanooga or at Idaho State....but I would say a Vegas book would have it -6.5 for Chattanooga (a playoff team last year) and -3.5 for Idaho State. PSU will be 7-9 point dogs at Weber as well and double-digit dogs in every other game.

They totally could win 5 games. But the over-under win total should actually be 1.5



Colter_Nuanez
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 9766
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:55 pm
Location: Big Sky Country
Contact:

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by Colter_Nuanez » Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:40 am

IF the book gave over/under win totals (they don't, which says a lot about the FCS but also says alot about the FCS followers....the book knows they would lose their asses because there's so many die-hards haha)....here's what we think the over/under win totals would be:

Montana - 10.5
Montana State - 9.5
UC Davis - 8.5
Idaho - 7.5
Sac State - 7.5
Weber State 6.5
NAU 5.5
Eastern Washington 5.5
Idaho State - 4.5
Portland State 2.5
Cal Poly 2.5
Northern Colorado 2.5


Again, this is based on schedule and easy/certain victories, not who we think will be better. For example: UC Davis might be the darkhorse to win the league....but they play at Cal, at Montana and at Sac State. If you consider Idaho a coin flip game and you think Montana State will win in Davis, that's five loseable games. If they go 2-3 in those games, they'll go 9-3 and hit the over. They go 1-4, that's 8-4 and it's under. They go 3-2, they have 10 wins and a playoff seed. If Davis goes 4-1 in those games, they are a top 4 seed. But the total should be right at 8.5.

For those who wonder why Montana State is a win less than Montana (even though I'm on the record saying I think both teams will be very good and have no clue who will be better this year), it's because the Cats play an FBS in New Mexico Week 0, go to Davis while the Griz host Davis and have to play Idaho, which the Griz do not.

What do you all think!



User avatar
BleedingBLue
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6236
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:00 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by BleedingBLue » Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:51 am

I would absolutely take the over on Idaho, Sac State and Idaho State. Idaho has, in my opinion, one of the easiest conference schedules this year. I think 9-3 is very realistic for that team, even with all the guys they lost.



User avatar
coloradocat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4998
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by coloradocat » Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:53 am

Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:59 am
CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.
I think talent-wise, especially with QB Dante Chachere and RB Quincy Craig, DL Kennedy Freeman, Portland State is atop the third tier in the Big Sky. Top tier is Montana State & Montana; second tier is UC Davis, Sac State and Idaho; Portland State is on par or better in terms of talent than Weber State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona and certainly better than Idaho State, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado.

They MUST win at Weber in Week 2 and at Idaho State Week 7 for their season to have any momentum. When Bruce Barnum's teams have some steam, they are always a tough out. When they don't, they roll over and pack it in.

If Portland State can get to the Montana State week with a 3-4 record, they will be in it during that MSU-Sac-Idaho-UM gauntlet. But if you start 0-6, which is totally feasible, or even 1-5, going into that murder's row....good luck!

The over-under win totals (which I'm thrilled is generating discussion) are not my picks for how many games I think PSU will win. I'm playing the book. I am the house. I'm setting the line. Portland State being at 2.5 is actually generous by book standards....going into the season, I bet the only game they are definitely favored in is Northern Colorado at home. Could be at Chattanooga or at Idaho State....but I would say a Vegas book would have it -6.5 for Chattanooga (a playoff team last year) and -3.5 for Idaho State. PSU will be 7-9 point dogs at Weber as well and double-digit dogs in every other game.

They totally could win 5 games. But the over-under win total should actually be 1.5
Can you respond to CodyCat saying that you (may have) said that the middle teams in the BSC could win most other FCS conferences and based on that PSU could go on the road and beat Chat? PSU would fall in the middle of the BSC conference but it's one thing to beat most other FCS teams at home and another to fly the equivalent of 2500 road miles and play a team 3 time zones away and win. I doubt even the tier 2 teams could do that, much less tier 3. Also, Chat has a bye before they host PSU so they'll be rested whereas PSU will be coming off playing a night game against FBS Boise State.


Eastwood, did not make it. Ball out! Recovered, by Montana State!! The Bobcats hold!!! The Bobcats hold!!!

CodyCat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2159
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:49 pm
Location: Cody, WY

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by CodyCat » Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:01 am

coloradocat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:53 am
Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:59 am
CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.
I think talent-wise, especially with QB Dante Chachere and RB Quincy Craig, DL Kennedy Freeman, Portland State is atop the third tier in the Big Sky. Top tier is Montana State & Montana; second tier is UC Davis, Sac State and Idaho; Portland State is on par or better in terms of talent than Weber State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona and certainly better than Idaho State, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado.

They MUST win at Weber in Week 2 and at Idaho State Week 7 for their season to have any momentum. When Bruce Barnum's teams have some steam, they are always a tough out. When they don't, they roll over and pack it in.

If Portland State can get to the Montana State week with a 3-4 record, they will be in it during that MSU-Sac-Idaho-UM gauntlet. But if you start 0-6, which is totally feasible, or even 1-5, going into that murder's row....good luck!

The over-under win totals (which I'm thrilled is generating discussion) are not my picks for how many games I think PSU will win. I'm playing the book. I am the house. I'm setting the line. Portland State being at 2.5 is actually generous by book standards....going into the season, I bet the only game they are definitely favored in is Northern Colorado at home. Could be at Chattanooga or at Idaho State....but I would say a Vegas book would have it -6.5 for Chattanooga (a playoff team last year) and -3.5 for Idaho State. PSU will be 7-9 point dogs at Weber as well and double-digit dogs in every other game.

They totally could win 5 games. But the over-under win total should actually be 1.5
Can you respond to CodyCat saying that you (may have) said that the middle teams in the BSC could win most other FCS conferences and based on that PSU could go on the road and beat Chat? PSU would fall in the middle of the BSC conference but it's one thing to beat most other FCS teams at home and another to fly the equivalent of 2500 road miles and play a team 3 time zones away and win. I doubt even the tier 2 teams could do that, much less tier 3. Also, Chat has a bye before they host PSU so they'll be rested whereas PSU will be coming off playing a night game against FBS Boise State.
Colter did not say that PSU would beat Chat. But last fall on several occasions he and Andrew(?) said the middle of the road BSC teams would win most other FCS conference. But, It would be great for Colter to confirm and/or elaborate on this.


Hating the griz since 02.

Colter_Nuanez
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 9766
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:55 pm
Location: Big Sky Country
Contact:

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by Colter_Nuanez » Wed Jul 10, 2024 12:13 pm

CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:01 am
coloradocat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:53 am
Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:59 am
CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.
I think talent-wise, especially with QB Dante Chachere and RB Quincy Craig, DL Kennedy Freeman, Portland State is atop the third tier in the Big Sky. Top tier is Montana State & Montana; second tier is UC Davis, Sac State and Idaho; Portland State is on par or better in terms of talent than Weber State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona and certainly better than Idaho State, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado.

They MUST win at Weber in Week 2 and at Idaho State Week 7 for their season to have any momentum. When Bruce Barnum's teams have some steam, they are always a tough out. When they don't, they roll over and pack it in.

If Portland State can get to the Montana State week with a 3-4 record, they will be in it during that MSU-Sac-Idaho-UM gauntlet. But if you start 0-6, which is totally feasible, or even 1-5, going into that murder's row....good luck!

The over-under win totals (which I'm thrilled is generating discussion) are not my picks for how many games I think PSU will win. I'm playing the book. I am the house. I'm setting the line. Portland State being at 2.5 is actually generous by book standards....going into the season, I bet the only game they are definitely favored in is Northern Colorado at home. Could be at Chattanooga or at Idaho State....but I would say a Vegas book would have it -6.5 for Chattanooga (a playoff team last year) and -3.5 for Idaho State. PSU will be 7-9 point dogs at Weber as well and double-digit dogs in every other game.

They totally could win 5 games. But the over-under win total should actually be 1.5
Can you respond to CodyCat saying that you (may have) said that the middle teams in the BSC could win most other FCS conferences and based on that PSU could go on the road and beat Chat? PSU would fall in the middle of the BSC conference but it's one thing to beat most other FCS teams at home and another to fly the equivalent of 2500 road miles and play a team 3 time zones away and win. I doubt even the tier 2 teams could do that, much less tier 3. Also, Chat has a bye before they host PSU so they'll be rested whereas PSU will be coming off playing a night game against FBS Boise State.
Colter did not say that PSU would beat Chat. But last fall on several occasions he and Andrew(?) said the middle of the road BSC teams would win most other FCS conference. But, It would be great for Colter to confirm and/or elaborate on this.
Well, there's some nuance here....We do believe that middle of the road Big Sky teams would compete for conference titles in other non-power FCS leagues. Last year, the top team in the Southern Conference was Furman, who was a very good team. I was very impressed with their defense when they came to Missoula and they had a veteran quarterback with savvy that I couldn't' help but think both Bobby Hauck and Jeff Choate would love to have. I'm not sure if the middle teams or even most of the top teams from the Big Sky last year would've won the SoCon last year.

For example, Furman was better than every Big Sky team I saw last year besides the Montana schools...Furman was better than Idaho (who was not better than Montana State despite beating them), as well a full notch above Sac State. I also think the SoCon has navigated attrition way better than conferences like the Southland and the CAA. Losing Georgia Southern, App State etc is really tough. But this season, I expect Furman to be good, Chattanooga to be really good (returns its standout quarterback, two of its top three wide receivers, and three starters on the offensive line; Defense returns seven starters and the top four tacklers) plus Western Carolina (one of the best QBs in the country), Mercer and Samford should all be competitive.

I'd actually take that top 5 teams in a conference over the combination of Villanova, UAlbany, Richmond, Delaware, Elon, William & Mary, New Hampshire, especially with Delaware ineligible for the playoffs this year and Richmond also on its way out.

Chattanooga actually has a very comparable budget to Montana and Montana State. Last year, it was about $21 million. Montana was about $24 million and Montana State was about $26 million.

That's all to say that my take on how the non-elite Big Sky schools would stack up is this: I believe that at least 5 and up to 8 Big Sky Conference teams would contend for or flat run away with the conference title in the Big South, the Ohio Valley (now one league), Ivy League, MEAC, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer, Southland, SWAC, United Athletic Conference.

Sac State, Idaho, UC Davis, Weber State would all roll through those leagues. NAU is a total mystery to me. I think EWU will be down this year. But the Eags would win pretty much all those leagues with only UT Martin in the Ohio Valley, Austin Peay in the UAC, Nicholls/Incarnate Word in the Southland, standing in the way.



Prodigal Cat
2nd Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1478
Joined: Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:50 am

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by Prodigal Cat » Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:00 pm

Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:59 am
CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.
I think talent-wise, especially with QB Dante Chachere and RB Quincy Craig, DL Kennedy Freeman, Portland State is atop the third tier in the Big Sky. Top tier is Montana State & Montana; second tier is UC Davis, Sac State and Idaho; Portland State is on par or better in terms of talent than Weber State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona and certainly better than Idaho State, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado.

They MUST win at Weber in Week 2 and at Idaho State Week 7 for their season to have any momentum. When Bruce Barnum's teams have some steam, they are always a tough out. When they don't, they roll over and pack it in.

If Portland State can get to the Montana State week with a 3-4 record, they will be in it during that MSU-Sac-Idaho-UM gauntlet. But if you start 0-6, which is totally feasible, or even 1-5, going into that murder's row....good luck!

The over-under win totals (which I'm thrilled is generating discussion) are not my picks for how many games I think PSU will win. I'm playing the book. I am the house. I'm setting the line. Portland State being at 2.5 is actually generous by book standards....going into the season, I bet the only game they are definitely favored in is Northern Colorado at home. Could be at Chattanooga or at Idaho State....but I would say a Vegas book would have it -6.5 for Chattanooga (a playoff team last year) and -3.5 for Idaho State. PSU will be 7-9 point dogs at Weber as well and double-digit dogs in every other game.

They totally could win 5 games. But the over-under win total should actually be 1.5
I'm bullish on PSU as well. They will certainly get a win they probably shouldn't this year that has playoff implications for the other team.

If you gave PSU UM's schedule they are at least 6-6 and if they stole a game or 2 here or there like @UND, @EWU vs Davis or Weber and they are potentially 8-4 and playoff bubble team. No way to prove this but I believe it. Chachere gives me Prukop type of vibes.


Brewer/Owner Copper Furrow Brewing

User avatar
BleedingBLue
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6236
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:00 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by BleedingBLue » Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:11 pm

Well said @Colter_Nuanez. I think the SoCon has passed the CAA for the 3rd best FCS conference. I also think the Southland is poised to pass the CAA if they add Tarleton and bring Central Arkansas back into the mix. Both of whom I think will be the top 2 teams in the UAC this year. Tarleton is pouring massive amounts of funding into their football program, and I expect them to be a top 10 team in the next year or two.



User avatar
kennethnoisewater
BobcatNation Hall of Famer
Posts: 3829
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:41 pm
Location: Kalispell, MT

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by kennethnoisewater » Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:14 pm

Prodigal Cat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:00 pm
Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:59 am
CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:04 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:14 pm
coloradocat wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2024 10:40 am
Listening to yesterday's conversation on PSU now. Their only realistically winnable game before the season finale at home against UNCU is @ Idaho State. They could easily go winless this year. Barney may finally get fired so he can get his dream job as an assistant for Bobbi.
That is a brutal schedule. They probably thought a few years ago the Chattanooga and South Dakota games would be winnable. Now, both are a lot tougher. They got the short end of the conference stick this year too. I wouldn't be surprised with one win, and I wouldn't be surprised with four because they do have some solid guys.
I think PSU will win way more than one game. Im higher on PSU than Colter.

@WSU: Loss
@Weber: Win
vs USD: Loss
@Boise: Loss
@Chat: Win
vs. UC Davis: Loss
@ISU: Win
vs. MSU: Loss
@Sac: Loss
vs. Idaho: Win
@missoula: Loss
vs. NoCo: Win

5-7 is possible. I dont know if I actually think PSU will win five games. But, I think its certainly possible. I think PSU is in the mix for the middle part of the conference with Weber and Idaho. Im not high on Idaho and I still cant figure out why people are. Maybe because of Eck? I do think he is tremendous. But, they have a pile of question marks. Some people (including Colter) have said more than once that middle teams in the BSC would win most other FCS conferences. If thats true, PSU could go on the road and beat Chattanooga.
I think talent-wise, especially with QB Dante Chachere and RB Quincy Craig, DL Kennedy Freeman, Portland State is atop the third tier in the Big Sky. Top tier is Montana State & Montana; second tier is UC Davis, Sac State and Idaho; Portland State is on par or better in terms of talent than Weber State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona and certainly better than Idaho State, Cal Poly and Northern Colorado.

They MUST win at Weber in Week 2 and at Idaho State Week 7 for their season to have any momentum. When Bruce Barnum's teams have some steam, they are always a tough out. When they don't, they roll over and pack it in.

If Portland State can get to the Montana State week with a 3-4 record, they will be in it during that MSU-Sac-Idaho-UM gauntlet. But if you start 0-6, which is totally feasible, or even 1-5, going into that murder's row....good luck!

The over-under win totals (which I'm thrilled is generating discussion) are not my picks for how many games I think PSU will win. I'm playing the book. I am the house. I'm setting the line. Portland State being at 2.5 is actually generous by book standards....going into the season, I bet the only game they are definitely favored in is Northern Colorado at home. Could be at Chattanooga or at Idaho State....but I would say a Vegas book would have it -6.5 for Chattanooga (a playoff team last year) and -3.5 for Idaho State. PSU will be 7-9 point dogs at Weber as well and double-digit dogs in every other game.

They totally could win 5 games. But the over-under win total should actually be 1.5
I'm bullish on PSU as well. They will certainly get a win they probably shouldn't this year that has playoff implications for the other team.

If you gave PSU UM's schedule they are at least 6-6 and if they stole a game or 2 here or there like @UND, @EWU vs Davis or Weber and they are potentially 8-4 and playoff bubble team. No way to prove this but I believe it. Chachere gives me Prukop type of vibes.
They always have athletes and they always SEEM to give a couple teams fits every year--and pull off upsets. Like Colter, I could see them not getting one or two of those wins early on and mailing it in like EWU seemed to do last year. But give them a little hope and I see them winning a few games.


Image

Colter_Nuanez
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 9766
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:55 pm
Location: Big Sky Country
Contact:

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by Colter_Nuanez » Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:20 pm

BleedingBLue wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:51 am
I would absolutely take the over on Idaho, Sac State and Idaho State. Idaho has, in my opinion, one of the easiest conference schedules this year. I think 9-3 is very realistic for that team, even with all the guys they lost.
Idaho

At Oregon - L
At Wyoming - L
UAlbany - huge coin flip, although it's in Moscow and Great Danes lost more than UI - W
At Abilene Christian - W
At UC Davis - coin flip, but Davis will be favored by 10+ - L
at Montana State - L
Cal Poly - W
Eastern Washington - W
At Portland State - W unless PSU jumps up and gets one, as previously discussed
Weber State - W
At Idaho State W

To get to 9-3 and smash the over, they'll have to for sure sweep their home schedule, including beating Final 4 UAlbany in a rematch of the quarterfinals, plus win at Davis or at Montana State. They win both, they are probably a 10-win team. Split, sweep home schedule, 9-3. Drop both FBS, lose to UAlbany, lose Davis & Montana State - 7-5. That's why I set it at 7.5. They have six pretty certain wins, two almost certain losses and four coin flip games. A betting book would give them 1.5 wins in the four coin flips. You're bullish? Take the over.

I think Idaho is good. But replacing a first-team All-Big Sky quarterback in Gevani McCoy, one of the greatest offensive players in recent memory in Hayden Hatten and a first-team All-Big Sky running back in Anthony Woods along with a receiver who's probably going to make the New Orleans Saints in Jermaine Jackson is a tall task.



CodyCat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2159
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:49 pm
Location: Cody, WY

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by CodyCat » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:12 pm

Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:20 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:51 am
I would absolutely take the over on Idaho, Sac State and Idaho State. Idaho has, in my opinion, one of the easiest conference schedules this year. I think 9-3 is very realistic for that team, even with all the guys they lost.
Idaho

At Oregon - L
At Wyoming - L
UAlbany - huge coin flip, although it's in Moscow and Great Danes lost more than UI - W
At Abilene Christian - W
At UC Davis - coin flip, but Davis will be favored by 10+ - L
at Montana State - L
Cal Poly - W
Eastern Washington - W
At Portland State - W unless PSU jumps up and gets one, as previously discussed
Weber State - W
At Idaho State W

To get to 9-3 and smash the over, they'll have to for sure sweep their home schedule, including beating Final 4 UAlbany in a rematch of the quarterfinals, plus win at Davis or at Montana State. They win both, they are probably a 10-win team. Split, sweep home schedule, 9-3. Drop both FBS, lose to UAlbany, lose Davis & Montana State - 7-5. That's why I set it at 7.5. They have six pretty certain wins, two almost certain losses and four coin flip games. A betting book would give them 1.5 wins in the four coin flips. You're bullish? Take the over.

I think Idaho is good. But replacing a first-team All-Big Sky quarterback in Gevani McCoy, one of the greatest offensive players in recent memory in Hayden Hatten and a first-team All-Big Sky running back in Anthony Woods along with a receiver who's probably going to make the New Orleans Saints in Jermaine Jackson is a tall task.
Why do you think Idaho is going to be good? For all the players you just listed is why I don't see them as much of a threat. My only reason for thinking they could be decent is Eck. He is a heck of a ball coach and has been recruiting pretty well from what I've seen, which I will admit isnt much.


Hating the griz since 02.

TomCat88
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 19510
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:16 am
Location: An endless run of moguls

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by TomCat88 » Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:17 pm

Such a wide range of teams in the BSC. Idaho loses what it does and they’re expected to win six BSC games.

2024 is shaping up to look nothing like the last 4-5 years.

I don’t think Idaho is going to be good but the BSC just looks way down. Oddly, it is still the second best, if not the best conference, in the country.


MSU - 16 team National Champions (most recent 2024); 57 individual National Champions (most recent 2023).
toM StUber

User avatar
BleedingBLue
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6236
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2015 1:00 pm

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by BleedingBLue » Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:40 pm

Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:20 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:51 am
I would absolutely take the over on Idaho, Sac State and Idaho State. Idaho has, in my opinion, one of the easiest conference schedules this year. I think 9-3 is very realistic for that team, even with all the guys they lost.
Idaho

At Oregon - L
At Wyoming - L
UAlbany - huge coin flip, although it's in Moscow and Great Danes lost more than UI - W
At Abilene Christian - W
At UC Davis - coin flip, but Davis will be favored by 10+ - L
at Montana State - L
Cal Poly - W
Eastern Washington - W
At Portland State - W unless PSU jumps up and gets one, as previously discussed
Weber State - W
At Idaho State W

To get to 9-3 and smash the over, they'll have to for sure sweep their home schedule, including beating Final 4 UAlbany in a rematch of the quarterfinals, plus win at Davis or at Montana State. They win both, they are probably a 10-win team. Split, sweep home schedule, 9-3. Drop both FBS, lose to UAlbany, lose Davis & Montana State - 7-5. That's why I set it at 7.5. They have six pretty certain wins, two almost certain losses and four coin flip games. A betting book would give them 1.5 wins in the four coin flips. You're bullish? Take the over.

I think Idaho is good. But replacing a first-team All-Big Sky quarterback in Gevani McCoy, one of the greatest offensive players in recent memory in Hayden Hatten and a first-team All-Big Sky running back in Anthony Woods along with a receiver who's probably going to make the New Orleans Saints in Jermaine Jackson is a tall task.
This is why you get paid the bucks (maybe big bucks :lol: ). I think Idaho's QB is going to impress this year, just like he did in a couple games last year. Can't remember his name now. I could be wrong, but I see their defense improving as well.



Colter_Nuanez
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 9766
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:55 pm
Location: Big Sky Country
Contact:

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by Colter_Nuanez » Wed Jul 10, 2024 7:41 pm

CodyCat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:12 pm
Colter_Nuanez wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:20 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:51 am
I would absolutely take the over on Idaho, Sac State and Idaho State. Idaho has, in my opinion, one of the easiest conference schedules this year. I think 9-3 is very realistic for that team, even with all the guys they lost.
Idaho

At Oregon - L
At Wyoming - L
UAlbany - huge coin flip, although it's in Moscow and Great Danes lost more than UI - W
At Abilene Christian - W
At UC Davis - coin flip, but Davis will be favored by 10+ - L
at Montana State - L
Cal Poly - W
Eastern Washington - W
At Portland State - W unless PSU jumps up and gets one, as previously discussed
Weber State - W
At Idaho State W

To get to 9-3 and smash the over, they'll have to for sure sweep their home schedule, including beating Final 4 UAlbany in a rematch of the quarterfinals, plus win at Davis or at Montana State. They win both, they are probably a 10-win team. Split, sweep home schedule, 9-3. Drop both FBS, lose to UAlbany, lose Davis & Montana State - 7-5. That's why I set it at 7.5. They have six pretty certain wins, two almost certain losses and four coin flip games. A betting book would give them 1.5 wins in the four coin flips. You're bullish? Take the over.

I think Idaho is good. But replacing a first-team All-Big Sky quarterback in Gevani McCoy, one of the greatest offensive players in recent memory in Hayden Hatten and a first-team All-Big Sky running back in Anthony Woods along with a receiver who's probably going to make the New Orleans Saints in Jermaine Jackson is a tall task.
Why do you think Idaho is going to be good? For all the players you just listed is why I don't see them as much of a threat. My only reason for thinking they could be decent is Eck. He is a heck of a ball coach and has been recruiting pretty well from what I've seen, which I will admit isnt much.
Reasons I think Idaho will be pretty good:

- last year, UI started nothing but freshmen and sophomores on the offensive line and did well. Eck knows how to recut and develop offensive linemen. He got Mason McCormick and Garrett Greenfield to SDSU.

- Idaho’s new defensive coordinator Dan Jackson has a great reputation in the coaching world and goes way back with Eck. He’s an upgrade over Rob Aurich, who was good last year.

- Jack Layne is really talented and Eck knows how to find QBs.

- Eck is one of the best in game coaches in the country. And he’s one of the best coaches when it comes to getting back on track if his team gets knocked off. This is something many Big Sky coaches - namely Barnum, Best, formerly Petrino at UI, Kramer and even Bobby Hauck - struggle with

- with the departure of Jay Hill at Weber State, Jerome Souers at Northern Arizona, Beau Baldwin at Eastern Washington and Cal Poly, Tim Walsh at Cal Poly and Troy Taylor at Sac State, the only programs who have made definitive head coaching upgrades the last handful of years in the Big Sky are Idaho State with Cody Hawkins, Ed Lamb at UNC and Eck. Montana State is TBD. Sac State probably still is too. The rest have downgraded. That’s a huge reason why the league has dipped outside of the Montana-Idaho corridor.



User avatar
PapaG
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 8623
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 11:44 am
Location: The Magic City, MT

Re: Big Sky Over/Unders

Post by PapaG » Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:39 pm

Gris having to go 11-1 to hit an Over is just wild to me. This can’t be a real bet because that’s just asking to lose the casino to expect anyone other than SDSU to win 11 games.

I’d bet that under all day.


Seattle to Billings to Missoula to Bozeman to Portland to Billings

What a ride

Post Reply