Good point about head to head.onceacat wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:09 amTruth. And the Huskies are pretty clearly a better overall team than the Griz, even though the Griz won head to head.rivercat wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:54 amSagarin ratings get better/more realistic later in the season with more games played. Over rated teams at the beginning of the season will skew up ratings of teams that beat them early in the season. I think it's plain to see a 2-3 Husky team us no where close to a top 20 team it was preseason. They are more likely a top 75 team. Still a good win for um, but not remarkable.
2021 Sagarin Rankings
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- Golden Bobcat
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
TomCat88 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:07 amWell my season-ending rankings are good at the end of the season, too. I find it fascinatingly pointless, which is kinda the point.Catsrgrood wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:00 amAt the end of the 2019 season the Sagarin rankings were pretty dang close to how the season actually worked out.
No it’s not perfect, none are, but as the season goes on it gets more and more accurate and is as good as any out there.
I meant to say at the end of the regular season, Sagarin’s top 24 was very similar to what the committee picked for the playoffs, sans a couple teams. And Sagarins top 4-8 at that time are who ended up in the quarters and semi’s. Considering there is no personal opinion in Sagarin, it’s purely an algorithm, all I’m saying is that it ends up being pretty close to reality by seasons end.
But, I get what you’re saying, and to each their own.
There tends to be two kinds of fans when it comes to this stuff.
One kind could not care less about any kind of poll, ranking, etc.
The other kind likes to follow the polls, see where there team is ranked, see who is above and below them, where the team they’re about to play, etc.
Neither one is wrong. Ultimately polls and rankings don’t mean a thing at the end of the season, it all gets figured out on the field. It’s just something for the fans to follow and discuss and have fun with.
- kennethnoisewater
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
It's all worth paying attention to. It's just like stats, especially at this point of the season. They can inform your opinion of a team but if they completely determine what you think about a player or team, you've missed it. Stats and rankings are good, but figures can lie and liars can figure. I like seeing the Sagarin rankings, though the "eye test" seems to be missing from it.Catsrgrood wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:33 amTomCat88 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:07 amWell my season-ending rankings are good at the end of the season, too. I find it fascinatingly pointless, which is kinda the point.Catsrgrood wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:00 amAt the end of the 2019 season the Sagarin rankings were pretty dang close to how the season actually worked out.
No it’s not perfect, none are, but as the season goes on it gets more and more accurate and is as good as any out there.
I meant to say at the end of the regular season, Sagarin’s top 24 was very similar to what the committee picked for the playoffs, sans a couple teams. And Sagarins top 4-8 at that time are who ended up in the quarters and semi’s. Considering there is no personal opinion in Sagarin, it’s purely an algorithm, all I’m saying is that it ends up being pretty close to reality by seasons end.
But, I get what you’re saying, and to each their own.
There tends to be two kinds of fans when it comes to this stuff.
One kind could not care less about any kind of poll, ranking, etc.
The other kind likes to follow the polls, see where there team is ranked, see who is above and below them, where the team they’re about to play, etc.
Neither one is wrong. Ultimately polls and rankings don’t mean a thing at the end of the season, it all gets figured out on the field. It’s just something for the fans to follow and discuss and have fun with.
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
After week 6, Cats are 114th overall and 9th in the FCS.
Wyoming- 60th overall
Drake- 251 overall, 122nd FCS
San Diego- 239 overall, 110th FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 98 overall, 6th FCS
Montana- 99 overall, 7th FCS
Montana State- 114 overall, 9th FCS
Weber- 128 overall, 17th FCS
UC Davis- 132 overall, 19th FCS
Sac St- 145 overall, 25th FCS
NAU- 175 overall, 48th FCS
Idaho- 177 overall, 50th FCS
Portland St- 183 overall, 55th FCS
Idaho St-206 overall, 62nd FCS
Southern Utah- 204 overall, 74th FCS
Northern CO- 206 overall, 76th FCS
Cal Poly- 222 overall, 93rd FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Wyoming- 60th overall
Drake- 251 overall, 122nd FCS
San Diego- 239 overall, 110th FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 98 overall, 6th FCS
Montana- 99 overall, 7th FCS
Montana State- 114 overall, 9th FCS
Weber- 128 overall, 17th FCS
UC Davis- 132 overall, 19th FCS
Sac St- 145 overall, 25th FCS
NAU- 175 overall, 48th FCS
Idaho- 177 overall, 50th FCS
Portland St- 183 overall, 55th FCS
Idaho St-206 overall, 62nd FCS
Southern Utah- 204 overall, 74th FCS
Northern CO- 206 overall, 76th FCS
Cal Poly- 222 overall, 93rd FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
After week 7, Cats are 104th overall and 8th in the FCS.
Wyoming- 78th overall
Drake- 251 overall, 120th FCS
San Diego- 237 overall, 106th FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 89 overall, 3rd FCS
Montana State- 104 overall, 8th FCS
Montana- 105 overall, 9th FCS
Weber- 132 overall, 18th FCS
UC Davis- 133 overall, 19th FCS
Sac St- 134 overall, 20th FCS
Portland St- 163 overall, 37th FCS
NAU- 165 overall, 39th FCS
Idaho- 182 overall, 52nd FCS
Idaho St-194 overall, 62nd FCS
Southern Utah- 203 overall, 71st FCS
Northern CO- 205 overall, 73rd FCS
Cal Poly- 217 overall, 85th FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Wyoming- 78th overall
Drake- 251 overall, 120th FCS
San Diego- 237 overall, 106th FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 89 overall, 3rd FCS
Montana State- 104 overall, 8th FCS
Montana- 105 overall, 9th FCS
Weber- 132 overall, 18th FCS
UC Davis- 133 overall, 19th FCS
Sac St- 134 overall, 20th FCS
Portland St- 163 overall, 37th FCS
NAU- 165 overall, 39th FCS
Idaho- 182 overall, 52nd FCS
Idaho St-194 overall, 62nd FCS
Southern Utah- 203 overall, 71st FCS
Northern CO- 205 overall, 73rd FCS
Cal Poly- 217 overall, 85th FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
After week 8, Cats are 110th overall and 9th in the FCS.
Wyoming- 101st overall
Drake- 249 overall, 119th FCS
San Diego- 232 overall, 102nd FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 100 overall, 7th FCS
Montana- 107 overall, 8th FCS
Montana State- 110 overall, 9th FCS
Weber- 124 overall, 17th FCS
Sac St- 125 overall, 18th FCS
UC Davis- 130 overall, 21st FCS
Portland St- 169 overall, 42nd FCS
NAU- 178 overall, 51st FCS
Idaho- 183 overall, 56th FCS
Idaho St-193 overall, 64th FCS
Northern CO- 202 overall, 72nd FCS
Southern Utah- 209 overall, 79th FCS
Cal Poly- 221 overall, 91st FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Wyoming- 101st overall
Drake- 249 overall, 119th FCS
San Diego- 232 overall, 102nd FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 100 overall, 7th FCS
Montana- 107 overall, 8th FCS
Montana State- 110 overall, 9th FCS
Weber- 124 overall, 17th FCS
Sac St- 125 overall, 18th FCS
UC Davis- 130 overall, 21st FCS
Portland St- 169 overall, 42nd FCS
NAU- 178 overall, 51st FCS
Idaho- 183 overall, 56th FCS
Idaho St-193 overall, 64th FCS
Northern CO- 202 overall, 72nd FCS
Southern Utah- 209 overall, 79th FCS
Cal Poly- 221 overall, 91st FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
After week 9, Cats are 107th overall and 8th in the FCS.
Wyoming- 98th overall
Drake- 250 overall, 120th FCS
San Diego- 232 overall, 102nd FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 99 overall, 6th FCS
Montana State- 107 overall, 8th FCS
Montana- 111 overall, 10th FCS
Weber- 117 overall, 12th FCS
Sac St- 124 overall, 16th FCS
UC Davis- 127 overall, 18th FCS
Portland St- 162 overall, 37th FCS
NAU- 163 overall, 38th FCS
Idaho- 188 overall, 60th FCS
Idaho St-194 overall, 65th FCS
Northern CO- 199 overall, 69th FCS
Southern Utah- 203 overall, 73rd FCS
Cal Poly- 221 overall, 91st FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Wyoming- 98th overall
Drake- 250 overall, 120th FCS
San Diego- 232 overall, 102nd FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 99 overall, 6th FCS
Montana State- 107 overall, 8th FCS
Montana- 111 overall, 10th FCS
Weber- 117 overall, 12th FCS
Sac St- 124 overall, 16th FCS
UC Davis- 127 overall, 18th FCS
Portland St- 162 overall, 37th FCS
NAU- 163 overall, 38th FCS
Idaho- 188 overall, 60th FCS
Idaho St-194 overall, 65th FCS
Northern CO- 199 overall, 69th FCS
Southern Utah- 203 overall, 73rd FCS
Cal Poly- 221 overall, 91st FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
- Bobcat4Ever
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
Thanks @Catsrgrood for posting these ratings. My coursework at MSU included quite a bit of statistics, particularly modeling and simulation. So I do personally enjoy perusing the various computer-generated ratings throughout the season.
Big Sky Conference Three-Tier Football
The thing that’s been interesting to watch in the computer ratings (I watch Massey, but that algorithm has shown the same thing) is the stratification of the Big Sky into three distinct tiers, and then the gradual closing of the gap between 1 and 2. These trends are something that ratings (as opposed to poll rankings) are very good at discovering. Watching the interaction between the tiers is interesting, and can clarify things a bit in a 13-team league by ignoring the rating of teams within tiers.
After Big Sky play started, the conference split rather quickly into tiers of 3, 3, and 7 teams. Remarkably there has been almost no change in the tier members since week 4, with only Montana State and UC Davis exchanging places at week 6 — that’s all! (This is based on the Sagarin ratings in this thread).
At week 6 the tiers became EWU, Montana, Montana St (6-9 FCS). Weber St, UC-Davis, Sac St (17-25 FCS). NAU, Idaho, Portland St, Idaho St, Southern Utah, Northern Colorado, Cal Poly (48-93 FCS).
After week 9 no teams have moved between tiers, but now look at the current FCS national rating groups: 6-10, 12-18, and 37-91. The middle tier of Weber St, Sac St, and UC Davis has made a strong move up! There are now 6 Big Sky teams in the top 18 nationally.
Who ever ends the season in tier 1 may get a piece of the Big Sky Championship and a playoff bye. Tier 2 teams are fighting between themselves for the playoffs and seeding. Tier 3 is wait until next year, or longer.
So, which tier 2 team is ready to keep winning and move into or expand tier 1 and enhance their playoff positioning? One or none of them? Watch tier 2 to see how many Big Sky teams will make the playoffs.
Big Sky Conference Three-Tier Football
The thing that’s been interesting to watch in the computer ratings (I watch Massey, but that algorithm has shown the same thing) is the stratification of the Big Sky into three distinct tiers, and then the gradual closing of the gap between 1 and 2. These trends are something that ratings (as opposed to poll rankings) are very good at discovering. Watching the interaction between the tiers is interesting, and can clarify things a bit in a 13-team league by ignoring the rating of teams within tiers.
After Big Sky play started, the conference split rather quickly into tiers of 3, 3, and 7 teams. Remarkably there has been almost no change in the tier members since week 4, with only Montana State and UC Davis exchanging places at week 6 — that’s all! (This is based on the Sagarin ratings in this thread).
At week 6 the tiers became EWU, Montana, Montana St (6-9 FCS). Weber St, UC-Davis, Sac St (17-25 FCS). NAU, Idaho, Portland St, Idaho St, Southern Utah, Northern Colorado, Cal Poly (48-93 FCS).
After week 9 no teams have moved between tiers, but now look at the current FCS national rating groups: 6-10, 12-18, and 37-91. The middle tier of Weber St, Sac St, and UC Davis has made a strong move up! There are now 6 Big Sky teams in the top 18 nationally.
Who ever ends the season in tier 1 may get a piece of the Big Sky Championship and a playoff bye. Tier 2 teams are fighting between themselves for the playoffs and seeding. Tier 3 is wait until next year, or longer.
So, which tier 2 team is ready to keep winning and move into or expand tier 1 and enhance their playoff positioning? One or none of them? Watch tier 2 to see how many Big Sky teams will make the playoffs.
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
After week 10, Cats are 102nd overall and 6th in the FCS.
Wyoming- 91st overall
Drake- 252 overall, 122nd FCS
San Diego- 231 overall, 101st FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
Montana State- 102 overall, 6th FCS
EWU- 105 overall, 8th FCS
Montana- 110 overall, 10th FCS
UC Davis- 127 overall, 16th FCS
Sac St- 128 overall, 17th FCS
Weber- 130 overall, 19th FCS
Portland St- 155 overall, 33rd FCS
NAU- 173 overall, 48th FCS
Idaho- 182 overall, 55th FCS
Idaho St-192 overall, 64th FCS
Northern CO- 203 overall, 73rd FCS
Southern Utah- 208 overall, 78th FCS
Cal Poly- 223 overall, 93rd FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Wyoming- 91st overall
Drake- 252 overall, 122nd FCS
San Diego- 231 overall, 101st FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
Montana State- 102 overall, 6th FCS
EWU- 105 overall, 8th FCS
Montana- 110 overall, 10th FCS
UC Davis- 127 overall, 16th FCS
Sac St- 128 overall, 17th FCS
Weber- 130 overall, 19th FCS
Portland St- 155 overall, 33rd FCS
NAU- 173 overall, 48th FCS
Idaho- 182 overall, 55th FCS
Idaho St-192 overall, 64th FCS
Northern CO- 203 overall, 73rd FCS
Southern Utah- 208 overall, 78th FCS
Cal Poly- 223 overall, 93rd FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
After week 11, Cats are 106th overall and 10th in the FCS.
Wyoming- 91st overall
Drake- 251 overall, 121st FCS
San Diego- 228 overall, 98th FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 95 overall, 5th FCS
Montana- 105 overall, 9th FCS
Montana State- 106 overall, 10th FCS
Sac St- 124 overall, 15th FCS
Weber- 125 overall, 16th FCS
UC Davis- 135 overall, 22nd FCS
Portland St- 162 overall, 38th FCS
NAU- 177 overall, 51st FCS
Idaho- 182 overall, 56th FCS
Idaho St-198 overall, 69th FCS
Northern CO- 202 overall, 73rd FCS
Southern Utah- 212 overall, 82nd FCS
Cal Poly- 218 overall, 88th FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Wyoming- 91st overall
Drake- 251 overall, 121st FCS
San Diego- 228 overall, 98th FCS
Big Sky (opponents in bold):
EWU- 95 overall, 5th FCS
Montana- 105 overall, 9th FCS
Montana State- 106 overall, 10th FCS
Sac St- 124 overall, 15th FCS
Weber- 125 overall, 16th FCS
UC Davis- 135 overall, 22nd FCS
Portland St- 162 overall, 38th FCS
NAU- 177 overall, 51st FCS
Idaho- 182 overall, 56th FCS
Idaho St-198 overall, 69th FCS
Northern CO- 202 overall, 73rd FCS
Southern Utah- 212 overall, 82nd FCS
Cal Poly- 218 overall, 88th FCS
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
- RockyBearCat
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- Montanabob
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
Check it again. It says bobcats have a win projected.
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- cats2506
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
I havent put much stock in Sagarin for quite awhile now.
I used to be part of a group where each week we picked the winners of each NFL game, since I never watch a lot of NFL I used Sagarin to do the picking. I straight up let his data do the picking. There were about 20 players in the game and at the end of the year I was 14th.
PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
Sagarin's algo doesn't have a variable for common sense.
MSU - 15 team National Champions (most recent 2021); 57 individual National Champions (most recent 2023).
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
And yet it's used as a Big Sky Conference championship tiebreaker.....smdh
- kennethnoisewater
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Re: 2021 Sagarin Rankings
I was thinking the same thing. Fortunately for this year, the only way we need the tiebreaker with Sac is if we both have the same outcome. They're 18 spots below MSU so at worst they shouldn't make a big move.blueandgoldblitz wrote: ↑Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:08 amAnd yet it's used as a Big Sky Conference championship tiebreaker.....smdh