MSU vs DumB predictions
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
I think we will see Marks, Konkol, and Hill make plays that will will be key to victory. Like the other seniors, they haven't lost to the griz and have the opportunity to finish undefeated. Marks and Konkol (essentially home town kids and life long Bobcats) have been huge in every Cat griz game since they were freshmen. Hill was injured for last Cat griz but he rises to the big game.
Cats 31
griz 20
Cats 31
griz 20
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
I respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Against good defenses, a successful running game is predicated on having at least a functional passing to keep the D from selling out to stop the run. Or they can stack the box every time and force the Cats to pass. Either scenario requires Rovig to be average to good to effectively move the ball.Counter Assault wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:16 amI respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Our pass D has been weak and Griz secondary has been terrible. What gives? Huge matchup.rivercat wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:28 amAgainst good defenses, a successful running game is predicated on having at least a functional passing to keep the D from selling out to stop the run. Or they can stack the box every time and force the Cats to pass. Either scenario requires Rovig to be average to good to effectively move the ball.Counter Assault wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:16 amI respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
Our rushing attack dominates and the griz have had a good defense against the rush. Who wins?
Those and turnovers will decide this game.
Go Cats!
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
???ilovethecats wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:37 amOur pass D has been weak and Griz secondary has been terrible. What gives? Huge matchup.rivercat wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:28 amAgainst good defenses, a successful running game is predicated on having at least a functional passing to keep the D from selling out to stop the run. Or they can stack the box every time and force the Cats to pass. Either scenario requires Rovig to be average to good to effectively move the ball.Counter Assault wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:16 amI respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
Our rushing attack dominates and the griz have had a good defense against the rush. Who wins?
Those and turnovers will decide this game.
Go Cats!
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
ilovethecats wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:37 amOur pass O has been weak and Griz secondary has been terrible. What gives? Huge matchup.rivercat wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:28 amAgainst good defenses, a successful running game is predicated on having at least a functional passing to keep the D from selling out to stop the run. Or they can stack the box every time and force the Cats to pass. Either scenario requires Rovig to be average to good to effectively move the ball.Counter Assault wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:16 amI respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
Our rushing attack dominates and the griz have had a good defense against the rush. Who wins?
Those and turnovers will decide this game.
Go Cats!
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Honestly the Griz are going to make stopping the run a priority. It doesn't matter if we complete a few deep balls, as evidenced by their stats. They are going to stick to their guns, and say "bet you can't do that twice", and then "bet you can't do that a third time", and so on. As long as we aren't really scoring they will keep selling out on the run and blitzing the sh*t out of Rovig.
If our run game can't get going it's going to be a long day. If the game is a brutal affair and close at halftime, even if we've being somewhat shut down on the ground, we have a shot in the second half as we'll see if those body blows start hurting.
If our run game can't get going it's going to be a long day. If the game is a brutal affair and close at halftime, even if we've being somewhat shut down on the ground, we have a shot in the second half as we'll see if those body blows start hurting.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
I think this is exactly right.CelticCat wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:11 amHonestly the Griz are going to make stopping the run a priority. It doesn't matter if we complete a few deep balls, as evidenced by their stats. They are going to stick to their guns, and say "bet you can't do that twice", and then "bet you can't do that a third time", and so on. As long as we aren't really scoring they will keep selling out on the run and blitzing the sh*t out of Rovig.
If our run game can't get going it's going to be a long day. If the game is a brutal affair and close at halftime, even if we've being somewhat shut down on the ground, we have a shot in the second half as we'll see if those body blows start hurting.
That’s kind of what they’ve done with everyone.
I think they’ll gladly give up a few 50/50 balls to our receivers if it means they can tighten up in the red zone and hold us to 3 and also keep our run game at bay.
Rovig will have to consistently hit those shots and convert 3rd downs through the air for them to think about adjusting. A deep shot or two likely won’t change a thing this defense does.
That and the OL has to own the LOS so we can consistently get 4+ yards.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Fixed it...catatac wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:53 am???ilovethecats wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:37 amOur pass D has been weak and Griz secondary has been terrible. What gives? Huge matchup.rivercat wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:28 amAgainst good defenses, a successful running game is predicated on having at least a functional passing to keep the D from selling out to stop the run. Or they can stack the box every time and force the Cats to pass. Either scenario requires Rovig to be average to good to effectively move the ball.Counter Assault wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:16 amI respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
Our rushing attack dominates and the griz have had a good defense against the rush. Who wins?
Those and turnovers will decide this game.
Go Cats!
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
I was looking at stats this morning. While Jizz are last in pass D, they are #1 in sacks. Meaning they do sell out every time. That is probably why Sac State roasted them on passing, because their QB could handle the pressure and make the throw. While I agree that passing opens up the run D, I also think just offensive line performance and our perimeter run game is what opened us up last year in Missoula. We had some monster option pitch plays, including that one where Jones scored. I don't think UM stopped their blitz program last year, Troy just evaded them and gashed them for yards. He did make some good passes too...
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Ah, duh... I probably could have just figured out it was a typo based on the context, my bad.ilovethecats wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:45 amFixed it...catatac wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:53 am???ilovethecats wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:37 amOur pass D has been weak and Griz secondary has been terrible. What gives? Huge matchup.rivercat wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:28 amAgainst good defenses, a successful running game is predicated on having at least a functional passing to keep the D from selling out to stop the run. Or they can stack the box every time and force the Cats to pass. Either scenario requires Rovig to be average to good to effectively move the ball.Counter Assault wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:16 amI respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
Our rushing attack dominates and the griz have had a good defense against the rush. Who wins?
Those and turnovers will decide this game.
Go Cats!
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
This is an interesting point. I think it’s also worth a mention that Mcgourin the Griz freshman will play in the game. He has only played 3 and is going to redshirt but has made a substantial impact with his lateral quickness in the games he has played. Only had 2 sacks in 3 games but he is very good extending the play to the sideline. I think it might come down to tackling. MSU has some real beasts running the ball and UM has some guys who love to hammer on dudes. We have seen RBs bounce off of hits and tear up the Griz with the yards after contact! Can the Griz bring down the cat backs in one hit? It will be interesting to seeRobertCats wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:47 amI am very concerned about this.....Rovig has had A LOT of balls tipped at the LOS.BadlandsGrizFanAgain wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:09 amEarly in the season I would have agreed...now not so much.catsrback76 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:20 pmIt's Defense that wins championships, and our D is better than their D! At home, The STREAK continues...no need for analysis!
The griz d has been playing pretty phenomenal as of late. Were playing a ton of young guys that are showing talent like we havent had here in a while. They cause a lot of "weird" things to happen to opposing QBs...lots of tipped balls. Gubnner leads the team in INTs.
It will be interesting to see how Rovig handles the chaotic play that our front line generates.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
I think the Cats have 3 of the most physical ball carriers in the league - Ifanse, Troy, Jonsen. Jonsen may not be a guy who trucks people but he doesn’t get pushed back very often and is good at avoiding big hits. I mean he’s 6’4 and all of 215. Throw in Logan Jones who pound for pound is one of the strongest backs we have and this isn’t a finesse backfield, but they can all take it to the house.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
I think the two biggest statistical things MSU has going for it is yards per carry and individual TFL.
MSU averages 5.9 ypc. There’s only one team (EWU) within 1.3 yards of the Bobcats. The next 1.3 yards includes nine teams.
MSU has 4 of the top 7 players in TFL. They have a combined 49.5 TFL. No other team has 4 players in the top 20. MSU has 84 team TFL, SAC has 94. No one else has more than 74.
MSU averages 5.9 ypc. There’s only one team (EWU) within 1.3 yards of the Bobcats. The next 1.3 yards includes nine teams.
MSU has 4 of the top 7 players in TFL. They have a combined 49.5 TFL. No other team has 4 players in the top 20. MSU has 84 team TFL, SAC has 94. No one else has more than 74.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Hard to get a good gut feeling on this one. I agree that UM should be favored, but I can certainly see MSU finding a way to win. Here's my take though: If we play good hard, mistake-free football for 4 full quarters, we win. I think the key in this game will be Rovig. He MUST hit the open receiver quickly. UM will go all out to stop our run and put the burden on Rovig. Sneed is just too dang good for UM to not score several times, so the O will need to get it done. Wouldn't hurt to get a couple of turnovers as well.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Bobcats play like they’re capable:
MSU 27
UM 17
Bobcats shoot selves in foot:
MSU 17
UM 27
MSU 27
UM 17
Bobcats shoot selves in foot:
MSU 17
UM 27
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Totally bizarre thing to say. The Griz are #5 in the conference against the pass (Cats are #3). Not a big difference there.ilovethecats wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:45 amFixed it...catatac wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:53 am???ilovethecats wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:37 amOur pass D has been weak and Griz secondary has been terrible. What gives? Huge matchup.rivercat wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:28 amAgainst good defenses, a successful running game is predicated on having at least a functional passing to keep the D from selling out to stop the run. Or they can stack the box every time and force the Cats to pass. Either scenario requires Rovig to be average to good to effectively move the ball.Counter Assault wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:16 amI respectfully disagree,I think the biggest X factor is establishing our running game. The Griz are tough on run D. We can clearly score a lot of points when we can consistently break out runs.VimSince03 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:51 pmAverage QB play has been the X-factor for MSU all season. Honestly, we've won half our games with below average QB play. Tucker is absolutely the biggest X-factor in this game. If he plays average (doesn't make mistakes and keeps his head), we have a good shot. If he plays above average (makes plays and exudes confidence throughout the game), MSU has a very good chance of winning this game going away.kennethnoisewater wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:18 pm100% agree. It'll be harder for him to do well, but I think that might depend on how well he's protected by the RB's. If they pick up pressure and keep him relatively upright, he can have a good game.iaafan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:12 pmRovig has a huge chance to be the X factor. If he screws up, MSU probably loses. If he does well, MSU probably wins. If he does neither, well, it’s back to square one.BleedingBLue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:58 pmI never predict the score in this game but I think both defenses will play well and the winner will have 1 more big offensive play than the loser. I think Rovig is going to make a couple big plays.
UC Davis threw a lot at Tucker on defense. Tons of blitzes/disguised pressure and Tucker handled it relatively well (no big losses on sacks and made some good throws when under duress). He'll see that all day against UM. Will be a great opportunity for him to change the narrative on his career so far.
Our rushing attack dominates and the griz have had a good defense against the rush. Who wins?
Those and turnovers will decide this game.
Go Cats!
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
That’s an absurdly good run game. For me, I think t comes down to this. The Griz are going to stack the box, bring run blitzes, and pressure the heck out of TR in passing situations. They are also one of the best pass Ds we’ve faced all year (similar numbers to UND, not as good as a Sac).iaafan wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:57 pmI think the two biggest statistical things MSU has going for it is yards per carry and individual TFL.
MSU averages 5.9 ypc. There’s only one team (EWU) within 1.3 yards of the Bobcats. The next 1.3 yards includes nine teams.
MSU has 4 of the top 7 players in TFL. They have a combined 49.5 TFL. No other team has 4 players in the top 20. MSU has 84 team TFL, SAC has 94. No one else has more than 74.
I think it all hinges on Rovig. A pick 6 probably loses the game...but if he plays like he did against Davis, that running game is going to lock things down in the 4thquarter.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Not bizarre at all. Everyone in the world knows the weakness of the griz D is their secondary. That’s not even really questionable. Pretty good line, great linebackers. Secondary prone to give up the play. Whether or not we can take advantage of that remains to be seen.
Offensively we run the ball better than anyone. You guys stop the run better than everyone. Someone has to win this battle?
What’s bizarre is a guy that was “once” a cat fan but is now a fan of the griz.
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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
I expect it to be close. Looking at the matchups is interesting though.
I see strength against strength weakness against weakness.
Yards per attempt of offense vs defense
MSU run offense #1(5.9) vs um run defense #2(3.3)
MSU pass offense #12(6.5) vs um pass defense #13(7.2)
MSU run defense #5(5.9) vs um run offense #7(4.2)
MSU pass defense #5(6.6) vs um pass offense #4(8.0)
MSU wins every matchup
https://static.bigskyconf.com/custompag ... nfldrs.htm
I see strength against strength weakness against weakness.
Yards per attempt of offense vs defense
MSU run offense #1(5.9) vs um run defense #2(3.3)
MSU pass offense #12(6.5) vs um pass defense #13(7.2)
MSU run defense #5(5.9) vs um run offense #7(4.2)
MSU pass defense #5(6.6) vs um pass offense #4(8.0)
MSU wins every matchup
https://static.bigskyconf.com/custompag ... nfldrs.htm
PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.