Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

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Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Catprint » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:24 am

Pathway to Playoffs 2019 Edition

Welcome to the 2nd edition of “Pathway to Playoffs” post. The weekly analysis of how the Cats can get to the playoffs that is well-researched (I read the Chronicle, Craig Haley and ESPN web site); insider-fed (I have been in the stadium when it is empty) and prophetic (I called 10 out of 11 games right last year).

The Ground Rules

A few reminders of the ground rules. In my weekly posts, my intent is not to delve into how good or bad the Cats are (well maybe just a little); not to dissect last week’s games on the nuances of what players did what and certainly not to call attention to the coaches and their strengths and weaknesses. Plenty of you do a great job in these areas. My goal is to look at the road to the playoffs, determine how last week’s and next week’s games including Big Sky games and ranked teams and competing conference games affect out likelihood of getting into the playoffs and where we might be seeded.

I take the long haul view. Granted, there is serious risk with this approach by starting before the very first game. The Cats might flame out early and the post dies of internal bleeding. Or I could be way off base in my analysis and observations and only irrelevant dribble comes out of my mouth. Last year, I think I did pretty well – both in accurately layout out the path to the playoffs (fairly simple task where I missed only one game out of 11) and in analyzing the events and games that had to break our way to get there (much more difficult and frankly in the last two weeks, I laid out a scenario of a combination of wins and losses by various teams to get the Cats in good standing and it played out pretty darn close including calling 6 out of 7 games that had to break our way on the last day). I will take my chances that I can do as well this year. I welcome your comments and analysis as well. Remember, stay away from the individual game performance and look at how teams are doing relative to the Cats and how our victories/losses are stacking up to the committee of voters – because unless we win the conference title – that is all that matters.

A few Captain Obvious Observations:
• We probably need to win 2 of 4 non-conference games.
• We have to protect home field and lose no more than one conference game at home
• We have to win at least 2 road games, likely 3.
• Last year I said the Big Sky does not get more than four bids every year and would not get more than four. That proved true. This year it is possible the Big Sky can get five bids due to the strength of our teams starting out (4 or 5 rated). I still say we need to finish no worse than 4th in the conference.
• Key players have to stay healthy.
• Our secondary must play better and our D-line provide more pressure against passing teams like SEMS, NAU, Sac State and UCD.
• We have to beat the Griz.

Given the Cats are ranked 8th (too high), 14th, 14th, 15th, and 18th in the five major polls, respect is not an issue this year and an 8-3 FCS record (8-4 full record) will clearly earn a playoff bid and quite likely even a 7-4 FCS record will get us in but we don’t want to think about that option.

I have toyed with either a 9-2 or 8-3 FCS record for the Cats as the most likely path. It is a not any easy decision. The pre-conference season is tough. It is conceivable the Cats could be 1-3 and in a big hole. I suspect they will be 2-2. The conference schedule is much more generous as many have pointed out because we don’t play Eastern or Weber and play the Griz at home. Still there are 3 or 4 tough conference games. And we all know, the big kicker is there is always a surprise team in the Big Sky. Every year a team rises to the top that was not even in the top 5 the previous year – one year it was PSU, another year SUU (seems like every other year they are good); another year Sac State. No one knows who the sleeper will be this year. I really want to say the Cats can finish with a 9-2 FCS record. However, there are so many unknowns, I am going to call the UND game a toss up and go with a final FCS record of 8-3 with the Cats just missing out on the 8th seed and a bye.

DATE...........GAME........Result Needed................Record......FCS Record
Week 1.........TTU..........Big Loss.........................1-0........0-0
Week 2.........SEMO.........Narrow Win....................1-1........1-0
Week 3.........WIU..........Loss.............................1-2........1-1
Week 4.........Norfolk St...Big Win.........................2-2........2-1
Week 5.........NAU..........Win..............................3-2........3-1
Week 6.........Cal Poly......Win…............................4-2........4-1
Week 7 .........Sac State....Win…...........................5-2........5-1
Week 8.........Open...........................................5-2........5-1
Week 9.........NDU...........Coin Flip/Loss................5-3........5-2
Week 10.......SUU............Big Win........................6-3........6-2
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win.........................7-3........7-2
Week 12.......UCD............Loss............................7-4........7-3
Week 13.......UM.............Big Win........................8-4........8-3

Analysis for the Week – How to use the 12th game

This is the odd year where Thanksgiving falls late in November and backing up the Saturdays allows for 12 games for FCS teams. The calendar has to have 14 Saturdays between Labor day weekend (even if the Saturday of Labor Day weekend is in August) and the last Saturday in November (which leaves the first playoff game Thanksgiving weekend). It happens in 2019, 2024, and 2025 in the next 10 years. So what should a coach of a playoff potential FCS school do with that extra game?

Options Include:
• Big Money Game with Power 5 Conference
• Money Game with FBS non-power 5 team
• Extra Game against FSC Powerhouse
• Extra Game against low-end FSC Team
• Extra Home Game against DII Team

What Cats have done with the 12th Game
While it might look like the Texas Tech big money game is our 12th game, history says otherwise. During the Ash years, Cats played a DII school every year regardless of 11 or 12 games, so the DII game was never the extra game. And we played a FBS school 8 out of 11 years. One 12-game year we had seven home games so the extra was a home game against a Power FCS team and the other year it was an away game against a power FCS team. We lost the extra games both years plus we lost the FBS game those years so our pre-conference record was 2-2. This year we can make the assumption our 12th game is a power FCS team – WIU. (Power meaning the team comes from top fiveFCS conference) or the SEMO game since the WIU is part of a home and home series with the MVFC.

Overall, the 12th game seems to be a detriment because we always started with two losses (one FBS and one FCS) the last three 12-game seasons. The argument could be made the FBS loss does not get considered into the playoff picture (unless we win) but moving into conference play at 2-2 is mentally not as advantageous as being 2-1. But there is always conversation FCS might go to 12 games for every season. Until next week,

Go Cats!!



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Danster21 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:28 am

Wow this is not only amazing analysis, but it's right up my alley of interest! I can't wait to catch this thread every week! Thank you for doing this and I pray your predictions are correct!



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by TomCat88 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:31 am

Danster21 wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:28 am
Wow this is not only amazing analysis, but it's right up my alley of interest! I can't wait to catch this thread every week! Thank you for doing this and I pray your predictions are correct!
One of the amazing things is he has MSU 8-3 on a 12 game schedule. Looks like he skipped counting his win prediction over SEMO. :lol:


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by allcat » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:32 am

He has 4 losses on there.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by TomCat88 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:34 am

allcat wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:32 am
He has 4 losses on there.
Ahh, I only saw the optional FBS loss doesn’t count column.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by BleedingBLue » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:12 am

This is good stuff. I think we are going to beat up on WIU this year though.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by thefrank1 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:16 am

I also believe we will beat WIU. They didn't look that strong last night.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by blueandgoldblitz » Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:53 pm

Agreed on those. I'm thinking that if we lose one of SEMO and WIU, it'll be that we lose to SEMO. But I'm thinking we win both. SEMO narrowly (like WIU last year) and WIU by 2 scores



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Cledus » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:35 pm

I agree on WIU being a solid win. I think Cal Poly is going to be a toss up. I’d put the cat griz as a toss up also.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Catprint » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:03 pm

Week 2

Went about as expected. TTU scored fewer points than some predicted (like me) but the Cats scored fewer as well. I was hoping for more from the offense. Oh Well. With regard to the season and assessing the Cats position, we actually moved up one spot (Stats Poll) by losing due to FCS losses by Wofford and Jacksonville State. Overall, the FCS fared poorly against FBS teams. All of the Top 25 teams who played an FBS team lost – a total of 12 games. The adage stayed true that an FBS loss does not hurt you as 10 of the 12 stayed at about the same place in the polls. The only two that changed significantly was UNI who moved up 6 based on their triple OT loss to Iowa State and Colgate who dropped out of the rankings after losing to Air Force. However, Colgate lost a season opener to FCS Villanova so they are 0-2. If you remember, Colgate was undefeated going into its 10th game last year and gave up only 29 points in 9 games. They have given up 82 in two games this year. How, the mighty have fallen. Most of the teams playing an FCS team won and kept their rankings. There were some exceptions and it cost those teams 10 or more spots in the rankings to lose to an FCS team.

The only winner of an FBS game was Central Arkansas who beat Western Kentucky and moved into the rankings at #20. However, I would take that with a grain of salt. The Hilltoppers are not exactly a prime FBS team. Then again, for FCS teams, maybe they are. In the last ten years, the Hilltoppers have played 6 FCS teams and they are a whopping 3-3. This is easily the worst 10 year FBS record against FCS teams. Let’s line up a game with Western Kentucky!

Path to the Playoffs Summary

DATE...........GAME........Result Needed................Record......FCS....... Comments
Week 1.........TTU..........Big Loss.........................1-0........0-0........ Well, I got the easy one right.
Week 2.........SEMO.........Narrow Win....................1-1........1-0
Week 3.........WIU..........Loss.............................1-2........1-1
Week 4.........Norfolk St...Big Win.........................2-2........2-1
Week 5.........NAU..........Win..............................3-2........3-1
Week 6.........Cal Poly......Win…...........................4-2........4-1
Week 7 .........Sac State....Win…...........................5-2........5-1
Week 8.........Open...........................................5-2........5-1
Week 9.........NDU...........Coin Flip/Loss................5-3........5-2
Week 10.......SUU............Big Win........................6-3........6-2
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win.........................7-3........7-2
Week 12.......UCD............Loss............................7-4........7-3
Week 13.......UM.............Big Win........................8-4........8-3
(Reminder, I have two sets of records – total and FCS only games. It is only the second column that matters to the playoff committee).

Some of you have mentioned that WIU should be an easier win. With regard to SEMO vs WIU, I pretty much picked based on home field. No idea of where WIU was going to sit this year. They are a program always in the mix but last year was definitely a down year. However, their loss to North Alabama is foreboding. With Colorado State on the plate this week and then the Cats, it is conceivable WIU will be 0-3 going into their last preconference game. So with no data significant data, I went with home team. One week at a time.

This week

As expected, MSU vs SEMO is the Stats and Hero Sports FCS game of the week. It is the only game between two ranked teams so that in and of itself made it prime fodder for such recognition. I don’t think we can overstate the significance of this game in the playoff positioning. The Cats have yet to beat a ranked team in the Choate era (well if we don’t count the Griz as ranked!) and this game is highly important due to the raw nature of our first five games. Next week is WIU on the road which will be tough, then Norfolk State at home, then NAU at home. We don’t know if Norfolk State is real but they took FBS Old Dominion to the wire and lost by 3. There are NO give me games on the schedule in the first five games.

I am not qualified to give much analysis on this game. Secondary has to play outstanding and we have to run the ball quite a bit successfully. No matter how much we wish, a week one game against a solid FBS team gives us no real markers for this week’s game. Everyone says “the Cats melted in the Texas heat” but those pretty sounding clichés are not metric-based.

But let’s look at a few key items about the Redhawks from a statistical view.

Offense
On offense the Redhawks pass slightly more than they run typically and that was the case last yea. Last week, they had more running yards than passing (by 33 yards) but still, they put up decent numbers in the air of 248 years against what looks like a weak Southern Illinois team. However, their attack is balanced and they were 12th in the nation in scoring offense. If we stop the run, you can bet they will be going over the top with lots of passes. The Redhawks don’t have to depend on one option or the other. They put up 48,56 and 70 points last year in three games. Other than one bad game, they did not score less than 31 against FCS competition during the regular season. Knowing the Cats strength against the run and weakness in pass defense, I expect to see them air it out significantly on their first few possessions. We struggled against pass heavy teams last year – SDSU (319); EWU (311); UM (354) winning only 1 out of 3.

Defense
The defense starts and stops with Zach Hall, the 2018 Buck Buchanan winner, going for a second award. He is an outstanding player leading the team in tackles with 168 last year and tied for first with four interceptions. Various writers say SEMO has trouble containing the run but the numbers don’t support that view. Opponents passed more than they ran against SEMO. In fact, SEMO was 70th against the rush while the Cats were 81st. Yes, they play a softer schedule but I think it is not supported to say SEMO has difficulty against the run.

In total defense and scoring defense, the Redhawks look softer, ranking only 110th and 81st while Montana State was 74th and 65th for comparison. So my take is the Cats need a balanced attack and not rely too much on the run. Zach Hall will make sure of that. This is not a soft defensive line.

I am counting on a win but I don’t think we know what the offense will look like on the field until a few series. With a win, we have a better chance of being 3-1 but we could easily go 2-2 in preconference games and still get a solid playoff berth. I do think we need the win here to solidify ourselves as solid contenders and be in the mix for a bye spot in the playoffs and avoid the inevitable “on the bubble” talk.

Other Games of consequence

It is certainly early in the season to predict if any other games will have a significant impact on the Bobcats opportunity to make the playoffs. We just don’t know who is good and who is not. But hey, let’s take a look.

BSC Gang of Five – For now, I put EWU, WSU, UCD, MSU and UM in the top five. Eagles and Aggies play DII and almost DII school – Lindenwood and University of San Diego. No consequences to those games. WSU takes on Cal Poly in a non-conference matchup but it could easily layout the strength of each team. Cal Poly historically has played the Wildcats tight keeping nearly every game to a one score in the last 5-6 years. The Griz play North Alabama which is an intriguing matchup. North Alabama joins the ranks of FCS this year coming from DII where they were dominant team for years and played in the DII championship game 3 years ago. North Alabama beat WIU (who Cats play in a week) at home. Is this team for real? The Griz will find out this week with many potential implications. I suspect the Griz will find a way to win and we may learn WIU is really not that good.

Other BSC – Of the other 7 BSC teams, 4 play FBS teams and 2 play DII teams. Only game of note is SUU against UNI. If UNI is as good as they played last week, they might crush SUU. But the Thunderbirds have been a surprise team 2 or 3 times in the last few years. The other noteworthy point to make is PSU lost to Arkansas last week by only a score of 20-13. This game hardly got a mention in the press. It was a close game throughout. Barnum is a great coach and PSU may be a sleeper. Granted, Arkansas was 2-10 last year and has 11 new starters so they may be the next Hilltoppers!

Top Ten Teams – The Bison play UND and that may be a tough game. I expect UND to lose putting them on the down side of a playoff climb. Maine plays recent FBS Georgia Southern. Maine surprised Weber last year and they have a chance against Georgia Southern. We already talked about UNI vs Southern Utah. This is a pretty important game for both teams and a UNI strong victory will lower SUU playoff role early in the season. No other games in the top 15 have any long term playoff implications.

So overall, not a do or die game but as close as they come this early in the year.

Go Cats!!



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by sdsyvie » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:20 am

Love your write ups, thanks



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by utucats » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:53 am

I don’t think that the defense is weak against the pass. I think we’ll see how dominate our defense is this weekend.

My prediction for this weekend is that our secondary turns some heads and we realize that Texas Tech was not an accurate measuring stick at all.

As for the playoff picture as a whole, this game against SEMO is critical. We need the confidence of a first game win after last week and against a ranked playoff team would be great. This is one the committee will be thinking about at the end of the year.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by TomCat88 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:39 am

utucats wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:53 am
I don’t think that the defense is weak against the pass. I think we’ll see how dominate our defense is this weekend.

My prediction for this weekend is that our secondary turns some heads and we realize that Texas Tech was not an accurate measuring stick at all.

As for the playoff picture as a whole, this game against SEMO is critical. We need the confidence of a first game win after last week and against a ranked playoff team would be great. This is one the committee will be thinking about at the end of the year.
MSU was fourth in pass D efficiency last year and allowed a Big Sky low of just one TD pass per game.

It’s hard to say if the Texas Tech game exposed the defense. Bowman is very good. He has a great OC in Jost. Bowman was shredding MSU the first two drives, but MSU was actually pretty decent the rest of the way.

MSU forced five punts, a turnover on downs and one turnover. MSU stopped Tech, which had its starters in most of the game and didn’t take Bowman out until the final possession, on seven of its last 12 possessions.

In Bowman’s seven starts last year Tech scored over 45 points four times, including FCS playoff team Lamar 77-0 and Oklahoma.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by 1984champ » Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:12 am

SEMO has also won recent games against 5 ranked teams. I do not believe that MSU has won any games against ranked teams and needs this win for credibility.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by cats2506 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:27 am

1984champ wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:12 am
SEMO has also won recent games against 5 ranked teams. I do not believe that MSU has won any games against ranked teams and needs this win for credibility.
won 3 of last 6 against ranked opponents, includes 2018 Jacksonville State and Stonybrook

I'm thinking Incarnate Word last year was ranked when MSU played them


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by iaafan » Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:39 am

TomCat88 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:39 am
utucats wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:53 am
I don’t think that the defense is weak against the pass. I think we’ll see how dominate our defense is this weekend.

My prediction for this weekend is that our secondary turns some heads and we realize that Texas Tech was not an accurate measuring stick at all.

As for the playoff picture as a whole, this game against SEMO is critical. We need the confidence of a first game win after last week and against a ranked playoff team would be great. This is one the committee will be thinking about at the end of the year.
MSU was fourth in pass D efficiency last year and allowed a Big Sky low of just one TD pass per game.

It’s hard to say if the Texas Tech game exposed the defense. Bowman is very good. He has a great OC in Jost. Bowman was shredding MSU the first two drives, but MSU was actually pretty decent the rest of the way.

MSU forced five punts, a turnover on downs and one turnover. MSU stopped Tech, which had its starters in most of the game and didn’t take Bowman out until the final possession, on seven of its last 12 possessions.

In Bowman’s seven starts last year Tech scored over 45 points four times, including FCS playoff team Lamar 77-0 and Oklahoma.
This is the game. If SEMO can’t pass the ball, then MSU should win this game. SEMO needs to successfully throw the ball to win.

I think MSU’s ground game will wear on them.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by CARDIAC_CATS » Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:55 am

Take care of business at home (6 wins), split(or better) on the road =======> PLAYOFFS!



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Cledus » Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:57 am

iaafan wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:39 am
This is the game. If SEMO can’t pass the ball, then MSU should win this game. SEMO needs to successfully throw the ball to win.

I think MSU’s ground game will wear on them.
If it doesn't, the 4,450 feet in elevation change from Cape Girardeau to Bozeman surely will.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by BozoneCat » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:50 pm

iaafan wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:39 am
This is the game. If SEMO can’t pass the ball, then MSU should win this game. SEMO needs to successfully throw the ball to win.

I think MSU’s ground game will wear on them.
Wear them down on the ground like Boise State did to FSU last weekend. Take their souls.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Catprint » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:14 am

cats2506 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:27 am
1984champ wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:12 am
SEMO has also won recent games against 5 ranked teams. I do not believe that MSU has won any games against ranked teams and needs this win for credibility.
won 3 of last 6 against ranked opponents, includes 2018 Jacksonville State and Stonybrook

I'm thinking Incarnate Word last year was ranked when MSU played them
Incarnate Word was #24 after the regular season in the last poll of the year before the playoffs started. The Cats have not beat a ranked team during the regular season during the Choate era except the Grizzlies who were #22 when we beat them in 2016. Putting Incarnate Word at #24 was a highly questionable move but a poll is a poll.



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