Grizzly George's Playoff Scenarios

BigSkyCat · Post by **BigSkyCat** » Wed Oct 25, 2006 9:43 pm

Many I-AA playoff spots up for grabs
By: George Geise, Great Falls Tribune Sports Editor

Could this be the rare year when only one Big Sky Conference football team makes the NCAA Division I-AA playoffs?

Sure could, although that doesn't happen very often. The last time only one Big Sky school was selected was 1998, when the Montana Grizzlies won the automatic berth with perhaps their worst team of the past decade.

Could this be the rare year when a Big Sky team with four losses makes the I-AA playoffs as an at-large choice?

Sure could, although that hardly ever happens, either. The last time it occurred was 1995, when a 6-4 Idaho club was chosen as an at-large team and was buried 33-3 by McNeese State in the first round.

With a month remaining in the Big Sky season, no playoff berths have been secured. But one thing is certain — this hasn't been a banner year for the nine-team league that likes to think of itself as the Best in the West.

No. 2 Montana (6-1) has performed as well as expected, and both No. 21 Portland State (5-3) and No. 24 Montana State (5-3) have had their moments in the spotlight.

But for much of this season, the Great West has been the best I-AA league in this region. However, that's changed a bit the last few weeks. Cal Poly's loss to South Dakota State last Saturday dropped the No. 9 Mustangs to 5-2, with a brutal schedule ahead — road games at I-A San Diego State, No. 2 Montana and No. 6 North Dakota State (6-1) the next three weeks.

UC Davis (4-3) has tumbled to No. 16, so the Great West portfolio lost a little more luster. Moreover, neither UC Davis nor North Dakota State is eligible for I-AA postseason play for two more years, so even if they were undefeated, they couldn't go.

The Gateway probably will get three teams into the playoffs, since four conference members (Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Youngstown State and Southern Illinois) have two or less losses heading into the final month.

But the Southland Conference is really having a down year, with only Central Arkansas (5-3) and Sam Houston State (4-3) above .500.

That's a positive note for Big Sky schools, since the I-AA selection committee prefers to select playoff teams on a regional basis.

Montana obviously has the inside track in any race. Even if the Grizzlies stumble once in the next three weeks, they should be a lock for their 14th straight playoff berth.

UM could sew up at least a tie for the league title with a victory Saturday at home against Idaho State, if MSU were to lose at home against Weber State (not likely, of course, but stranger things have happened in Bozeman this season).

Portland State is almost certain to absorb its fourth loss Saturday when the Vikings play at nationally ranked Oregon. But a fourth defeat — normally the kiss of death — may not kill a school's playoff hopes this season.

"If Portland State finishes 7-4, I think we (Big Sky office) could make a great, great case for them to be picked," said Jon Kasper, director of media relations for the league. "They would have two losses against I-A teams (Oregon and Cal) and a win over a I-A team (New Mexico)."

Montana State earned national props with its opening victory at I-A Colorado, but the Cats lost some status with a home loss against Division II Chadron (Neb.) State. The Bobcats still control their playoff destiny since they'll be the undisputed Big Sky champions if they run the table against Weber State, Northern Colorado and Montana to finish 7-1 in conference, 8-3 overall.

But if they finish 6-2, 7-4, coach Mike Kramer's guys probably will watch the playoffs on TV.

We'll likely have to wait until the Bobcat-Grizzly game on Nov. 18 in Missoula to unravel the playoff mystery. And really, isn't that what Treasure State football fans want their rivalry game to mean every year?

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 8:28 am

He's definitely trying to jinx us.

vike_king · Post by **vike_king** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 8:31 am

Grizzly George....lol....good one.

I just refer to him as the Grizzly Sprots Information Director!

tetoncat · Post by **tetoncat** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:08 am

What I don't understand is his comment that Portland State can make an argument for the playoffs at 7-4 because of its 1-A win but then discounts the Cats. If we win next two and lost to Griz and end up 7-4 we would have a 6 game winning streak, be higher ranked than we are now and then have lost to the #1 or #2 ranked team assuming they don't lose. We also would have a 1-A victory from a stronger conference, and would have won the head to head with PSU. Got to at least give us the same consideration that you do PSU George. I don't think either of us get in though unless there are several more losses within the top 25.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:10 am

tetoncat wrote:What I don't understand is his comment that Portland State can make an argument for the playoffs at 7-4 because of its 1-A win but then discounts the Cats. If we win next two and lost to Griz and end up 7-4 we would have a 6 game winning streak, be higher ranked than we are now and then have lost to the #1 or #2 ranked team assuming they don't lose. We also would have a 1-A victory from a stronger conference, and would have won the head to head with PSU. Got to at least give us the same consideration that you do PSU George. I don't think either of us get in though unless there are several more losses within the top 25.

1-A victory from stronger conference .... 14-0 head to head against PSU (and held them to 130 some yards) should say it all for the selection comittee to me

The Butcher · Post by **The Butcher** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:13 am

tetoncat wrote:What I don't understand is his comment that Portland State can make an argument for the playoffs at 7-4 because of its 1-A win but then discounts the Cats. If we win next two and lost to Griz and end up 7-4 we would have a 6 game winning streak, be higher ranked than we are now and then have lost to the #1 or #2 ranked team assuming they don't lose. We also would have a 1-A victory from a stronger conference, and would have won the head to head with PSU. Got to at least give us the same consideration that you do PSU George. I don't think either of us get in though unless there are several more losses within the top 25.

Yeah, but we lost to a D-II

Blue and Gold · Post by **Blue and Gold** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:46 am

Way to cut to the heart of the matter Butcher

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:53 am

The criteria the selection committee uses for at-large bids goes something like this:
At large teams shall be selected by the Division I-AA football committee. assisted by four regional advisory committees that serve in an advisory capacityonly.

The following principles shall apply when selecting at large teams:

1) The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket.

2) There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference.

3) The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team's strength of schedule; however, less then seven division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected.

4) The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all divison I opponents; and

5) If the team of a committee member is under consideration; the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/f ... ndbook.pdf

So, what does this mean? Win out and we're in. Lose and leave our fate in the hands of someone else.

WYCAT · Post by **WYCAT** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 10:03 am

barechestcat wrote:So, what does this mean? Win out and we're in. Lose and leave our fate in the hands of someone else.

I think it would mean just what it meant last year. Win out and we are in or lose one more, finish 7-4, and spend nine months saying what if. I would venture to say we were one of the best teams that didn't make the field last year and we would be again this season. I guess we will just have to win out and take away any questions won't we?

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 10:12 am

The Butcher wrote:
tetoncat wrote:What I don't understand is his comment that Portland State can make an argument for the playoffs at 7-4 because of its 1-A win but then discounts the Cats. If we win next two and lost to Griz and end up 7-4 we would have a 6 game winning streak, be higher ranked than we are now and then have lost to the #1 or #2 ranked team assuming they don't lose. We also would have a 1-A victory from a stronger conference, and would have won the head to head with PSU. Got to at least give us the same consideration that you do PSU George. I don't think either of us get in though unless there are several more losses within the top 25.
Yeah, but we lost to a D-II

A Div II team that is undefeated at 8-0 though. NO SLOUCH. That was a good team with a stud RB. We CLOBBERED PSU head to head. So if there is a TIE at 7-4 and I'm on the selection Committee that is #1 criteria that has to be looked at when comparing 2 teams. HEAD TO HEAD.

But yes, they have those selection criteria VERY VAGUE for a reason so they can pick and choose who they want in there.

WE WIN OUT OR NO PLAYOFFS. Only way I think.

DaCats Forever · Post by **DaCats Forever** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 12:56 pm

barechestcat wrote: 3) The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team's strength of schedule; however, less then seven division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected.

I thought that you had to have minimum 7 Division I wins. News to me. Looks like they could take a 6-5 team with that, although it could be highly scrutinized. I guess you learn something new every day.

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 1:27 pm

DaCats Forever wrote:
barechestcat wrote: 3) The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team's strength of schedule; however, less then seven division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected.
I thought that you had to have minimum 7 Division I wins. News to me. Looks like they could take a 6-5 team with that, although it could be highly scrutinized. I guess you learn something new every day.

The rule changed this year- you're right though, it did use to require 7 D-I wins.

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 3:01 pm

CARDIAC_CATS wrote:
The Butcher wrote:
tetoncat wrote:What I don't understand is his comment that Portland State can make an argument for the playoffs at 7-4 because of its 1-A win but then discounts the Cats. If we win next two and lost to Griz and end up 7-4 we would have a 6 game winning streak, be higher ranked than we are now and then have lost to the #1 or #2 ranked team assuming they don't lose. We also would have a 1-A victory from a stronger conference, and would have won the head to head with PSU. Got to at least give us the same consideration that you do PSU George. I don't think either of us get in though unless there are several more losses within the top 25.
Yeah, but we lost to a D-II
A Div II team that is undefeated at 8-0 though. NO SLOUCH. That was a good team with a stud RB. We CLOBBERED PSU head to head. So if there is a TIE at 7-4 and I'm on the selection Committee that is #1 criteria that has to be looked at when comparing 2 teams. HEAD TO HEAD.

But yes, they have those selection criteria VERY VAGUE for a reason so they can pick and choose who they want in there.

WE WIN OUT OR NO PLAYOFFS. Only way I think.

Boy, I don't know. I'm trying to remain neutral and look at this from afar... we got beat 45 zip by UC Davis at home, lost to a DII school at home, and lost to an average Big Sky school at home. Those are 3 strikes against us, regardless of how we're playing now. Fortunately I have a good feeling about how we're going to end the season, so we won't need to let anyone else decide our fate...

Don't want to look too far ahead but our of curiosity, of we win the next three, what is our home playoff game situation, anyone know?

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 3:18 pm

The frustrating thing to me is that dang EWU performance, or rather, lack of performance.

Does anyone believe that we'd lose to them based on how we're playing right now? We'd be a SERIOUS favorite if we played them today.

Despite that loss, we still "control our own destiny", yes, but wouldn't it be nice to know (assuming we take care of WSU & UNC) that even if we stumbled vs the Griz, we'd still be in the playoffs?

Here's hoping that the EWU loss doesn't become this year's version of last year's loss @ PSU...

orsalak · Post by **orsalak** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 3:20 pm

The Butcher wrote:Yeah, but we lost to a D-II

On the bright side, we have a great road record!!

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 3:49 pm

catatac wrote:
CARDIAC_CATS wrote:
The Butcher wrote:
tetoncat wrote:What I don't understand is his comment that Portland State can make an argument for the playoffs at 7-4 because of its 1-A win but then discounts the Cats. If we win next two and lost to Griz and end up 7-4 we would have a 6 game winning streak, be higher ranked than we are now and then have lost to the #1 or #2 ranked team assuming they don't lose. We also would have a 1-A victory from a stronger conference, and would have won the head to head with PSU. Got to at least give us the same consideration that you do PSU George. I don't think either of us get in though unless there are several more losses within the top 25.
Yeah, but we lost to a D-II
A Div II team that is undefeated at 8-0 though. NO SLOUCH. That was a good team with a stud RB. We CLOBBERED PSU head to head. So if there is a TIE at 7-4 and I'm on the selection Committee that is #1 criteria that has to be looked at when comparing 2 teams. HEAD TO HEAD.

But yes, they have those selection criteria VERY VAGUE for a reason so they can pick and choose who they want in there.

WE WIN OUT OR NO PLAYOFFS. Only way I think.

Don't want to look too far ahead but our of curiosity, of we win the next three, what is our home playoff game situation, anyone know?[/quote]

The way I understand it the top 4 seeds get home games plus another 4 to be determined by the committee. If the Cats win out and get the auto-bid we'll be 8-3. Whether that would get us a home game or not depends on how the other teams finish and our ranking at the end of the season.

Cat-theotherwhitemeat · Post by **Cat-theotherwhitemeat** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:02 pm

GOKATS wrote:If the Cats win out and get the auto-bid we'll be 8-3. Whether that would get us a home game or not depends on how the other teams finish and our ranking at the end of the season.

From what I understand, after the top four seeds, it is done with a bidding process. Anyone?

canyoncat · Post by **canyoncat** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:03 pm

Thought it was a bid process after the top 4. I am sure MSU would put in enough of bid to get a home game to open up the playoffs. But, then again maybe I am wrong and it is the second round that is open to bids after the top 4 seeds.

STREETCAT · Post by **STREETCAT** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:05 pm

Realisticly there is no way that we would host a first round game with an 8-3 record. Simply for the fact that missoula will get a home game no matter if they finished the season 7-4 (which i doubt will happen too) due to the fact that they would can easily double the money we could bring in.

Second I would highly doubt they would give two teams from the same conference a home game.

When we win out we will be on the road probably against a team from either the Gateway or the Southland

Cat-theotherwhitemeat · Post by **Cat-theotherwhitemeat** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:07 pm

canyoncat wrote:Thought it was a bid process after the top 4. I am sure MSU would put in enough of bid to get a home game to open up the playoffs. But, then again maybe I am wrong and it is the second round that is open to bids after the top 4 seeds.

One bright side of this, if the Cats and the Griz both make the playoff's the Cats won't have to worry about outbidding the Griz for the first round. The second round would be a different story and I seriously doubt the Cats would outbid the Griz because of the stadium sizes.