COVID 19 deaths by day

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ilovethecats
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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by ilovethecats » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:27 pm

iaafan wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:52 am
wbtfg wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:36 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:58 am
Yesterday was second worst day. 14 of top 20 in December. Worst month by far.
1. 3,538 - December 16
2. 3,376 - December 22
3. 3,277 - December 17
4. 3,265 - December 9
5. 3,107 - December 10
6. 3,031 - December 11
7. 3,001 - December 15
8. 2,960 - December 8
9. 2,922 - December 3
10. 2,873 - December 2
11. 2,794 - December 18
12. 2,744 - April 21
13. 2,713 - December 4
14. 2,695 - April 15
15. 2,669 - December 1
16. 2,633 - April 14
17. 2,601 - April 17
18. 2,582 - May 6
19. 2,556 - December 19
20. 2,541 - April 28
The US hit 3,882 yesterday for a new record for deaths in a single day.
I have to think it will be. House parties galore tonight and tomorrow with no supervision or procedures in place to require any social distancing whatsoever. People will be in bars all night, and head out at 10 by law and definitely not just go home. I'd think the next couple weeks will show a real nice boost in cases.... #-o

1. 3,880- December 30
2. 3,717 - December 29
3. 3,538 - December 16
4. 3,401- December 23
5. 3,376 - December 22
6. 3,277 - December 17
7. 3,265 - December 9
8. 3,107 - December 10
9. 3,031 - December 11
10. 3,001 - December 15
11. 2,960 - December 8
12. 2,922 - December 3
13. 2,873 - December 2
14. 2,835 - December 24
15. 2,794 - December 18
16. 2,744 - April 21
17. 2,713 - December 4
18. 2,695 - April 15
19. 2,669 - December 1
20. 2,633 - April 14

Yes, the top 20 is almost all December. One more day to go. January might be worse. :(



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RickRund
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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by RickRund » Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:19 pm

The new york state legislature just came up with the cure... Wow, why didn't all of us come up with this thought...

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/0 ... tent=daily



ilovethecats
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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by ilovethecats » Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:28 am

So now that another year is upon us, are the numbers available? I’m SO curious about yet total deaths in 2019 vs 2020. I’m having a hard time finding them



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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by TomCat88 » Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:36 am

ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:28 am
So now that another year is upon us, are the numbers available? I’m SO curious about yet total deaths in 2019 vs 2020. I’m having a hard time finding them
No. They won’t get finalized for quite awhile. However, there are some projections. This is a link wbtfg posted earlier when you asked a similar question.

https://usafacts.org/articles/prelimina ... s-age-flu/

In it there’s a projection that the death rate will be around 9.4 per thousand. Here’s a good graphic for the death rate since 1980: https://usafacts.org/data/topics/people ... =PerCapita

The biggest increase or decrease from one year to the next is just 0.2 and that (9 times in 39 years) is rare. If the 9.4 is correct it would represent an increase of around 0.5 - 0.6. That would be a significant jump. 2018 was 8.7, so even if 2019 was a big jump of 0.2 (8.9) the 9.4 number would be 0.5 increase. That’s a huge jump in these terms. Even a 0.3 jump would have to be considered a very significant increase.

I’ve read that the 2019 death rate is 8.78 or 8.8 rounded up. So right now it appears that it will be a 0.6 jump. That’s very large considering most years see a movement of 0.1.


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by wapiti » Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:31 am

RickRund wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:19 pm
The new york state legislature just came up with the cure... Wow, why didn't all of us come up with this thought...

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/0 ... tent=daily
...
The Governor would have sweeping powers to indefinitely detain American citizens and put them in internment camps.
According to the proposed bill, the Governor will also be able to detain people who have come in contact with the “carrier.”

The only way an individual would be released from detainment is if the “department” determines the person is no longer contagious.
...

This sounds very very dangerous. Then who determines what disease qualifies for this and when you are no longer contagious.
I could see so called "mental disease" being a part of this and the person had voiced dissenting views.



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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by wapiti » Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:36 am

TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:36 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:28 am
So now that another year is upon us, are the numbers available? I’m SO curious about yet total deaths in 2019 vs 2020. I’m having a hard time finding them
No. They won’t get finalized for quite awhile. However, there are some projections. This is a link wbtfg posted earlier when you asked a similar question.

https://usafacts.org/articles/prelimina ... s-age-flu/

In it there’s a projection that the death rate will be around 9.4 per thousand. Here’s a good graphic for the death rate since 1980: https://usafacts.org/data/topics/people ... =PerCapita

The biggest increase or decrease from one year to the next is just 0.2 and that (9 times in 39 years) is rare. If the 9.4 is correct it would represent an increase of around 0.5 - 0.6. That would be a significant jump. 2018 was 8.7, so even if 2019 was a big jump of 0.2 (8.9) the 9.4 number would be 0.5 increase. That’s a huge jump in these terms. Even a 0.3 jump would have to be considered a very significant increase.

I’ve read that the 2019 death rate is 8.78 or 8.8 rounded up. So right now it appears that it will be a 0.6 jump. That’s very large considering most years see a movement of 0.1.

If 25% is considered rare, then a death rate of 1% from covid should be considered very very rare.



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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by TomCat88 » Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:30 am

wapiti wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:36 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:36 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:28 am
So now that another year is upon us, are the numbers available? I’m SO curious about yet total deaths in 2019 vs 2020. I’m having a hard time finding them
No. They won’t get finalized for quite awhile. However, there are some projections. This is a link wbtfg posted earlier when you asked a similar question.

https://usafacts.org/articles/prelimina ... s-age-flu/

In it there’s a projection that the death rate will be around 9.4 per thousand. Here’s a good graphic for the death rate since 1980: https://usafacts.org/data/topics/people ... =PerCapita

The biggest increase or decrease from one year to the next is just 0.2 and that (9 times in 39 years) is rare. If the 9.4 is correct it would represent an increase of around 0.5 - 0.6. That would be a significant jump. 2018 was 8.7, so even if 2019 was a big jump of 0.2 (8.9) the 9.4 number would be 0.5 increase. That’s a huge jump in these terms. Even a 0.3 jump would have to be considered a very significant increase.

I’ve read that the 2019 death rate is 8.78 or 8.8 rounded up. So right now it appears that it will be a 0.6 jump. That’s very large considering most years see a movement of 0.1.

If 25% is considered rare, then a death rate of 1% from covid should be considered very very rare.
Yes, poor choice of words on my part. I should’ve said rarest, not rare. A 0.2 increase or decrease is the rarest of the three possible outcomes, which are 0.0, 0.1, and 0.2.

Covid in 2020 was the third leading cause of death.


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by TomCat88 » Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am

Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 am

TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am
Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/
Appreciate it. Brings me to a couple questions.

Why would deaths in 2020 not be available for months? People die. It’s on record. We have obituaries. And we even have a death calculator right on this board that has been updated every day for months. I don’t understand why there shouldn’t be a concrete, black and white total of how many people died this past year and be able to compare them to other years.

Which brings me to my next question. Why am I seeing conflicting reports on deaths? Whether it be total deaths in 2020 or how they relate to other years? It seems to me this would be hard fact, no nonsense, no grey area, facts.

We have to have a total of deaths in our county right? And each county should do the same? Thus we should know exactly how many deaths in our state? And if all states do the same thing we should know how many people died? I’m not asking “why” people died... but I got to admit I’m mind blown we don’t have numbers of deaths for each year and to get those numbers takes months after the year is over.

I’m going to keep digging a bit but I appreciate the links. Just seems weird in 2021 something like this would still prove to be difficult. I guess projections can go all directions. That’s frustrating in itself.



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catatac
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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by catatac » Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:23 pm

Edit - I had 300,000, meant 3,000,000 for the estimated deaths in 2020.
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am
Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/
Appreciate it. Brings me to a couple questions.

Why would deaths in 2020 not be available for months? People die. It’s on record. We have obituaries. And we even have a death calculator right on this board that has been updated every day for months. I don’t understand why there shouldn’t be a concrete, black and white total of how many people died this past year and be able to compare them to other years.

Which brings me to my next question. Why am I seeing conflicting reports on deaths? Whether it be total deaths in 2020 or how they relate to other years? It seems to me this would be hard fact, no nonsense, no grey area, facts.

We have to have a total of deaths in our county right? And each county should do the same? Thus we should know exactly how many deaths in our state? And if all states do the same thing we should know how many people died? I’m not asking “why” people died... but I got to admit I’m mind blown we don’t have numbers of deaths for each year and to get those numbers takes months after the year is over.

I’m going to keep digging a bit but I appreciate the links. Just seems weird in 2021 something like this would still prove to be difficult. I guess projections can go all directions. That’s frustrating in itself.
Totally agree, and I don't understand it either. I understand it taking awhile to sort out "causes" of death, etc... but the total numbers should be available. When I did some research a few months ago on death rate statistics (because like you I am really interested in the total number of deaths we have in 2020 compared to how many were expected) I found it strange that I couldn't even find the 2019 totals yet because they were still not available. I think that has changed now and the 2019 numbers are available. I'll see if I can find the website, but I had listed out all U.S. deaths from 2010 to see the rates, and they were climbing year after year so I want to say 2020 was expected to have right around 3,000,000 if memory serves.
Last edited by catatac on Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by iaafan » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:51 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am
Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/
Appreciate it. Brings me to a couple questions.

Why would deaths in 2020 not be available for months? People die. It’s on record. We have obituaries. And we even have a death calculator right on this board that has been updated every day for months. I don’t understand why there shouldn’t be a concrete, black and white total of how many people died this past year and be able to compare them to other years.

Which brings me to my next question. Why am I seeing conflicting reports on deaths? Whether it be total deaths in 2020 or how they relate to other years? It seems to me this would be hard fact, no nonsense, no grey area, facts.

We have to have a total of deaths in our county right? And each county should do the same? Thus we should know exactly how many deaths in our state? And if all states do the same thing we should know how many people died? I’m not asking “why” people died... but I got to admit I’m mind blown we don’t have numbers of deaths for each year and to get those numbers takes months after the year is over.

I’m going to keep digging a bit but I appreciate the links. Just seems weird in 2021 something like this would still prove to be difficult. I guess projections can go all directions. That’s frustrating in itself.
You mean you don’t know? :lol: Just kidding, but seriously I doubt Tom knows the answer to that. I doubt he knew the answer to your previous question either. I’m sure he used a search engine to gather the information. I assume you’re using a search engine to try to find the answers yourself. What did you find?



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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:54 pm

iaafan wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:51 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am
Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/
Appreciate it. Brings me to a couple questions.

Why would deaths in 2020 not be available for months? People die. It’s on record. We have obituaries. And we even have a death calculator right on this board that has been updated every day for months. I don’t understand why there shouldn’t be a concrete, black and white total of how many people died this past year and be able to compare them to other years.

Which brings me to my next question. Why am I seeing conflicting reports on deaths? Whether it be total deaths in 2020 or how they relate to other years? It seems to me this would be hard fact, no nonsense, no grey area, facts.

We have to have a total of deaths in our county right? And each county should do the same? Thus we should know exactly how many deaths in our state? And if all states do the same thing we should know how many people died? I’m not asking “why” people died... but I got to admit I’m mind blown we don’t have numbers of deaths for each year and to get those numbers takes months after the year is over.

I’m going to keep digging a bit but I appreciate the links. Just seems weird in 2021 something like this would still prove to be difficult. I guess projections can go all directions. That’s frustrating in itself.
You mean you don’t know? :lol: Just kidding, but seriously I doubt Tom knows the answer to that. I doubt he knew the answer to your previous question either. I’m sure he used a search engine to gather the information. I assume you’re using a search engine to try to find the answers yourself. What did you find?
I've tried a little bit. Seems the info is all over the board, which is odd to me. Especially when we have this very thread where we keep track of covid deaths by the day, but we don't know if it amounted to any more deaths than we see every year. I've seen reports it's WAY higher due to the pandemic, and other reports saying the death rate is basically the same as every other year.

Sometimes this place is actually a source of information and some posters seem to really know the ins and outs of the virus so I thought I'd pose the question. :-k



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catatac
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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by catatac » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:25 pm

Just did a quick search again, not even finding the 2019 total deaths so far, but I'm pretty sure I found them once, will keep looking. This is great "death data" for the U.S. from the CDC, but I'm not sure why they don't have the 2019 numbers posted here... I mean it's been over a year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by catatac » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:30 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:54 pm
iaafan wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:51 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am
Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/
Appreciate it. Brings me to a couple questions.

Why would deaths in 2020 not be available for months? People die. It’s on record. We have obituaries. And we even have a death calculator right on this board that has been updated every day for months. I don’t understand why there shouldn’t be a concrete, black and white total of how many people died this past year and be able to compare them to other years.

Which brings me to my next question. Why am I seeing conflicting reports on deaths? Whether it be total deaths in 2020 or how they relate to other years? It seems to me this would be hard fact, no nonsense, no grey area, facts.

We have to have a total of deaths in our county right? And each county should do the same? Thus we should know exactly how many deaths in our state? And if all states do the same thing we should know how many people died? I’m not asking “why” people died... but I got to admit I’m mind blown we don’t have numbers of deaths for each year and to get those numbers takes months after the year is over.

I’m going to keep digging a bit but I appreciate the links. Just seems weird in 2021 something like this would still prove to be difficult. I guess projections can go all directions. That’s frustrating in itself.
You mean you don’t know? :lol: Just kidding, but seriously I doubt Tom knows the answer to that. I doubt he knew the answer to your previous question either. I’m sure he used a search engine to gather the information. I assume you’re using a search engine to try to find the answers yourself. What did you find?
I've tried a little bit. Seems the info is all over the board, which is odd to me. Especially when we have this very thread where we keep track of covid deaths by the day, but we don't know if it amounted to any more deaths than we see every year. I've seen reports it's WAY higher due to the pandemic, and other reports saying the death rate is basically the same as every other year.

Sometimes this place is actually a source of information and some posters seem to really know the ins and outs of the virus so I thought I'd pose the question. :-k
Ok, here's a decent link. The 2020 numbers are still fuzzy yet and it sounds like this doesn't include Covid numbers but at least this should be accurate all the way through 2019 so we have a good idea of the death rate trend.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/U ... death-rate


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by TomCat88 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:31 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am
Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/
Appreciate it. Brings me to a couple questions.

Why would deaths in 2020 not be available for months? People die. It’s on record. We have obituaries. And we even have a death calculator right on this board that has been updated every day for months. I don’t understand why there shouldn’t be a concrete, black and white total of how many people died this past year and be able to compare them to other years.

Which brings me to my next question. Why am I seeing conflicting reports on deaths? Whether it be total deaths in 2020 or how they relate to other years? It seems to me this would be hard fact, no nonsense, no grey area, facts.

We have to have a total of deaths in our county right? And each county should do the same? Thus we should know exactly how many deaths in our state? And if all states do the same thing we should know how many people died? I’m not asking “why” people died... but I got to admit I’m mind blown we don’t have numbers of deaths for each year and to get those numbers takes months after the year is over.

I’m going to keep digging a bit but I appreciate the links. Just seems weird in 2021 something like this would still prove to be difficult. I guess projections can go all directions. That’s frustrating in itself.
Perhaps not enough resources are put into keeping track of that on a daily basis? Possibly because projecting it has been fairly easy and accurate until this year? I'm sure this is something we could do if it were deemed to be of high enough importance. There are 3,002 counties in the USA and I believe each one has a county coroner. I'm not sure how it works. Does the CC get the information and then process it to the state, then each state processes it to the federal gov't. Do all CC's have a deadline each week/month to have their data off to the state gov't and does each state have a weekly/monthly/quarterly date? I work in an office that reports information from about 40 different agencies to us, but only each quarter and then that information is sent to the feds yearly. So I assume there's some kind of plan for reporting deaths, but no idea at all how it works. Interesting subject. Anyone know?

I look at Worldometers.com. As for the Covid numbers we get each day, those aren't always for that day. Most of those deaths occurred the day before and some before that. I notice that some states have a number by 10:00 AM and others not until noon or later. Some more populous states have a number reported, but it gets up dated once or more as the day goes along. So to say that we're capable of tracking the Covid deaths, but not the other deaths might be giving those tracking Covid too much credit. The Covid deaths are generally thought to be significantly undercounted at this point. There are those that think Covid is overcounted, but the general consensus is that they're undercounted. There are also people that want there to be as much confusion about the numbers a possible in order to create doubt. Maybe I'm one of them? :twisted:

Could it be that every person that died of Covid would've died within a few days/weeks anyway? I tend to think not. My guess is that quite a few people that died of Covid, probably would've died within the year anyway, but very hard to say just what percentage that would be. Some people that die from cancer would've died before the year was out from something else if they didn't have cancer. We know that due to the sheer number of people that die from cancer annually, which is 650,000 or so. If you took a cross-section of perfectly healthy people on Jan. 1, certainly some of them would die of other ailments or accidents before the end of the year.

So the more I write, the more apparent it becomes that you can go all kinds of directions with this due to all the variables. Even if someone was tracking all deaths in the US daily, there would be some discussion about the accuracy.


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:01 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:31 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:32 am
Here’s another article for iltc.

“Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 006270001/
Appreciate it. Brings me to a couple questions.

Why would deaths in 2020 not be available for months? People die. It’s on record. We have obituaries. And we even have a death calculator right on this board that has been updated every day for months. I don’t understand why there shouldn’t be a concrete, black and white total of how many people died this past year and be able to compare them to other years.

Which brings me to my next question. Why am I seeing conflicting reports on deaths? Whether it be total deaths in 2020 or how they relate to other years? It seems to me this would be hard fact, no nonsense, no grey area, facts.

We have to have a total of deaths in our county right? And each county should do the same? Thus we should know exactly how many deaths in our state? And if all states do the same thing we should know how many people died? I’m not asking “why” people died... but I got to admit I’m mind blown we don’t have numbers of deaths for each year and to get those numbers takes months after the year is over.

I’m going to keep digging a bit but I appreciate the links. Just seems weird in 2021 something like this would still prove to be difficult. I guess projections can go all directions. That’s frustrating in itself.
Perhaps not enough resources are put into keeping track of that on a daily basis? Possibly because projecting it has been fairly easy and accurate until this year? I'm sure this is something we could do if it were deemed to be of high enough importance. There are 3,002 counties in the USA and I believe each one has a county coroner. I'm not sure how it works. Does the CC get the information and then process it to the state, then each state processes it to the federal gov't. Do all CC's have a deadline each week/month to have their data off to the state gov't and does each state have a weekly/monthly/quarterly date? I work in an office that reports information from about 40 different agencies to us, but only each quarter and then that information is sent to the feds yearly. So I assume there's some kind of plan for reporting deaths, but no idea at all how it works. Interesting subject. Anyone know?

I look at Worldometers.com. As for the Covid numbers we get each day, those aren't always for that day. Most of those deaths occurred the day before and some before that. I notice that some states have a number by 10:00 AM and others not until noon or later. Some more populous states have a number reported, but it gets up dated once or more as the day goes along. So to say that we're capable of tracking the Covid deaths, but not the other deaths might be giving those tracking Covid too much credit. The Covid deaths are generally thought to be significantly undercounted at this point. There are those that think Covid is overcounted, but the general consensus is that they're undercounted. There are also people that want there to be as much confusion about the numbers a possible in order to create doubt. Maybe I'm one of them? :twisted:

Could it be that every person that died of Covid would've died within a few days/weeks anyway? I tend to think not. My guess is that quite a few people that died of Covid, probably would've died within the year anyway, but very hard to say just what percentage that would be. Some people that die from cancer would've died before the year was out from something else if they didn't have cancer. We know that due to the sheer number of people that die from cancer annually, which is 650,000 or so. If you took a cross-section of perfectly healthy people on Jan. 1, certainly some of them would die of other ailments or accidents before the end of the year.

So the more I write, the more apparent it becomes that you can go all kinds of directions with this due to all the variables. Even if someone was tracking all deaths in the US daily, there would be some discussion about the accuracy.
Appreciate the info! Good stuff.



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Bobcat4Ever
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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:29 pm

Only anecdotal evidence, but about more populated areas at least, I’ve read several articles about morgues and morticians and crematoriums and funeral homes being absolutely overrun by the number of deaths. That would certainly indicate an over-abundance of deaths.



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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by TomCat88 » Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:46 am

A good indication that those who died from Covid were extremely weak due to age and/or other illnesses will be the amount of decrease in the death rate.

For example, if the 2019 death rate is 8.8 and it jumps to 9.4, but is followed by a huge drop to something like an 8.4, then we can attribute the high rate to age and/or illness. If it just drops back to something in the 8.7-8.9 range then the likelihood of that decreases. That assumes that Covid is all but eliminated at some point. If it continues then it will be awhile to use this method of evaluation.

It’s also important to note that the increase in the death rate for 2020 does not include very many Covid deaths in the months of January, February and March. I’m guessing over 95% of the deaths occurred from April through December. Death rates are based on the calendar year. The Covid year, if you will, may run from from April 2020 to March 2021. That year would give a more accurate depiction of the the effect of Covid on deaths if you want compare Covid to a normal year.


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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by The Butcher » Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:23 am

Bobcat4Ever wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:29 pm
Only anecdotal evidence, but about more populated areas at least, I’ve read several articles about morgues and morticians and crematoriums and funeral homes being absolutely overrun by the number of deaths. That would certainly indicate an over-abundance of deaths.
This was in the Gazette yesterday.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/state- ... 17609.html



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Re: COVID 19 deaths by day

Post by iaafan » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:14 pm

Back over 3,000 (and counting) today.

1. 3,882 - December 30
2. 3,717 - December 29
3. 3,539 - December 31
4. 3,538 - December 16
5. 3,401- December 23
6. 3,376 - December 22
7. 3,277 - December 17
8. 3,265 - December 9
9. 3,014 - January 5
10. 3,107 - December 10
11. 3,031 - December 11
12. 3,001 - December 15
13. 2,960 - December 8
14. 2,922 - December 3
15. 2,873 - December 2
16. 2,835 - December 24
17. 2,794 - December 18
18. 2,744 - April 21
19. 2,713 - December 4
20. 2,695 - April 15.
21. 2,669 - December 1
22. 2,633 - April 14
23. 2,601 - April 17
24. 2,582 - May 6
25. 2,556 - December 19
26. 2,541 - April 28
27. 2,459 - April 29
28. 2,420 - April 22
29. 2,413 - April 23
29. 2,413 - May 5
31. 2,332 - November 25
32. 2,309 - December 12
33. 2,283 - April 10
35. 2,280 - April 30
36. 2,278 - April 7
37. 2,256 - December 5
38. 2,255 - April 16
39. 2,212 - April 8
40. 2,210 - November 24
41. 2,177 - May 7
42. 2,174 - January 1
43. 2,151 - April 9
44. 2,114 - April 25
45. 2,110 - January 2
45. 2,070 - April 11
46. 2,067 - November 1



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