Masks in Montana

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iaafan
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by iaafan » Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:28 am

coachouert wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:25 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:19 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:15 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:07 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:21 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:15 am
Iaa, was the mask order put into effect on the 11th? I can't remember, I was thinking somewhere towards the first week(ish) of August.

I found this on google, overall the cases seem to be coming down from a high point in July.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALe ... u-H8uQAAAA
I don't know. I just saw the graph take a big dip beginning the 11th, so I started there to intentionally skew the data in Bullock's favor. :wink:

Of course if it continues to go down it's because there's "no testing, no cases" or it doesn't really matter because people didn't start wearing masks due to the mandate. :sick: If it goes away completely, it's just taking it's natural course and has nothing to do with any preventive measures. It'll just have disappeared.
Haha you picked a terrible start date then. I'd have picked like august 13th lol.

It's not going away completely, I think we will still be dealing with it in Spring unfortunately.
Schools are opening up, so that's a big test. I sat in on an orientation conference call between parents/students and administrators yesterday. I was impressed with how seriously the admins are taking this. The bottom line is "we're all in this together' for it to work. But they have a what sounds like a very good plan in place. One that I think all Montana schools are using. Only time will tell how effective it is.
I haven't looked, when I was at MSU there were still those huge chemistry etc. classes that had like 200 kids in them. Do they have a plan for those?
They are blending courses, especially bigger ones where students are split into groups: some in class, some online and then flip. Most smaller classes are still in person in larger rooms. I teach a class of 17 this semester, all 17 are in the room that normally has a capacity of around 45. I also teach a larger class with 75. We are in a room that typically holds 100+, but due to social distancing, I can have up to roughly 40 in the class at a time so I split them and will have one group in class and the other online before flipping them the next week.
For colleges, I'm less concerned with classrooms than I am with big parties. A large group of people drinking and losing their inhibitions is like red meat for viruses.



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coachouert
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by coachouert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:51 am

iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:28 am
coachouert wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:25 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:19 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:15 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:07 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:21 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:15 am
Iaa, was the mask order put into effect on the 11th? I can't remember, I was thinking somewhere towards the first week(ish) of August.

I found this on google, overall the cases seem to be coming down from a high point in July.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALe ... u-H8uQAAAA
I don't know. I just saw the graph take a big dip beginning the 11th, so I started there to intentionally skew the data in Bullock's favor. :wink:

Of course if it continues to go down it's because there's "no testing, no cases" or it doesn't really matter because people didn't start wearing masks due to the mandate. :sick: If it goes away completely, it's just taking it's natural course and has nothing to do with any preventive measures. It'll just have disappeared.
Haha you picked a terrible start date then. I'd have picked like august 13th lol.

It's not going away completely, I think we will still be dealing with it in Spring unfortunately.
Schools are opening up, so that's a big test. I sat in on an orientation conference call between parents/students and administrators yesterday. I was impressed with how seriously the admins are taking this. The bottom line is "we're all in this together' for it to work. But they have a what sounds like a very good plan in place. One that I think all Montana schools are using. Only time will tell how effective it is.
I haven't looked, when I was at MSU there were still those huge chemistry etc. classes that had like 200 kids in them. Do they have a plan for those?
They are blending courses, especially bigger ones where students are split into groups: some in class, some online and then flip. Most smaller classes are still in person in larger rooms. I teach a class of 17 this semester, all 17 are in the room that normally has a capacity of around 45. I also teach a larger class with 75. We are in a room that typically holds 100+, but due to social distancing, I can have up to roughly 40 in the class at a time so I split them and will have one group in class and the other online before flipping them the next week.
For colleges, I'm less concerned with classrooms than I am with big parties. A large group of people drinking and losing their inhibitions is like red meat for viruses.
Agreed. The off campus events are what have caused issues at other schools already (UNC, Notre Dame, Michigan State, etc.).


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ilovethecats
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by ilovethecats » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:14 am

Cataholic wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:27 am
LTown Cat wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:11 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:45 am
wbtfg wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:22 pm
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:00 pm
I'm interested in the science. Masks are supposed to have a massive impact (paired with our other restrictions including social distancing) on the amount of new cases.
I'm interested in this as well.
August 11 - 174 cases
August 12 - 142
Aug. 13 - 132
14 - 120
15 - 92
16 - 43
17 - 57
18 - ??

I'm not saying this proves it's working, but cases are trending downward. Could be due to a multitude of things.
I noticed this week that Mon/Tues were both under 1,000 test performed. There were days a few weeks ago in the 3,000+ range. So it's probably a combination of masks, people being a bit more cautious again, and fewer tests.
If that is accurate, testing has decreased to one third and the number of positive tests have decreased to one third. Cutting back on testing was idiotic as we can’t tell whether the lower positive tests actually reflect “less tests” or “wearing masks”.
Well, to be fair, the WAY we were testing was idiotic so it actually made sense to decrease the testing. What we were doing was pointless. In a perfect world you'd want to test every single person, and give those people results immediately. If that was possible, ramping up testing would be great. However, when people are waiting to get results back as many as 7-10 days later, those tests become worthless. They don't do anything to stop the spread. So they had no choice but to slow the testing so results could be made sooner.

If that cheap saliva test proves to be as successful as it appears early, it could be a game changer. [-o<



Cataholic
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by Cataholic » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:18 am

ilovethecats wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:14 am
Cataholic wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:27 am
LTown Cat wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:11 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:45 am
wbtfg wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:22 pm
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:00 pm
I'm interested in the science. Masks are supposed to have a massive impact (paired with our other restrictions including social distancing) on the amount of new cases.
I'm interested in this as well.
August 11 - 174 cases
August 12 - 142
Aug. 13 - 132
14 - 120
15 - 92
16 - 43
17 - 57
18 - ??

I'm not saying this proves it's working, but cases are trending downward. Could be due to a multitude of things.
I noticed this week that Mon/Tues were both under 1,000 test performed. There were days a few weeks ago in the 3,000+ range. So it's probably a combination of masks, people being a bit more cautious again, and fewer tests.
If that is accurate, testing has decreased to one third and the number of positive tests have decreased to one third. Cutting back on testing was idiotic as we can’t tell whether the lower positive tests actually reflect “less tests” or “wearing masks”.
Well, to be fair, the WAY we were testing was idiotic so it actually made sense to decrease the testing. What we were doing was pointless. In a perfect world you'd want to test every single person, and give those people results immediately. If that was possible, ramping up testing would be great. However, when people are waiting to get results back as many as 7-10 days later, those tests become worthless. They don't do anything to stop the spread. So they had no choice but to slow the testing so results could be made sooner.

If that cheap saliva test proves to be as successful as it appears early, it could be a game changer. [-o<
That is a good point, but is there any reason to compare to older data when the base variable has been dramatically changed? If you test 3,000 a day two weeks ago, but now test 1,000 today, what does looking at number of positives from the two periods actually mean?



ilovethecats
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by ilovethecats » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:29 am

Cataholic wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:18 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:14 am
Cataholic wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:27 am
LTown Cat wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:11 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:45 am
wbtfg wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:22 pm
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:00 pm
I'm interested in the science. Masks are supposed to have a massive impact (paired with our other restrictions including social distancing) on the amount of new cases.
I'm interested in this as well.
August 11 - 174 cases
August 12 - 142
Aug. 13 - 132
14 - 120
15 - 92
16 - 43
17 - 57
18 - ??

I'm not saying this proves it's working, but cases are trending downward. Could be due to a multitude of things.
I noticed this week that Mon/Tues were both under 1,000 test performed. There were days a few weeks ago in the 3,000+ range. So it's probably a combination of masks, people being a bit more cautious again, and fewer tests.
If that is accurate, testing has decreased to one third and the number of positive tests have decreased to one third. Cutting back on testing was idiotic as we can’t tell whether the lower positive tests actually reflect “less tests” or “wearing masks”.
Well, to be fair, the WAY we were testing was idiotic so it actually made sense to decrease the testing. What we were doing was pointless. In a perfect world you'd want to test every single person, and give those people results immediately. If that was possible, ramping up testing would be great. However, when people are waiting to get results back as many as 7-10 days later, those tests become worthless. They don't do anything to stop the spread. So they had no choice but to slow the testing so results could be made sooner.

If that cheap saliva test proves to be as successful as it appears early, it could be a game changer. [-o<
That is a good point, but is there any reason to compare to older data when the base variable has been dramatically changed? If you test 3,000 a day two weeks ago, but now test 1,000 today, what does looking at number of positives from the two periods actually mean?
Absolutely nothing. Which has been one of my points the whole time. People fixate on these numbers too much considering all that has changed the last 6 months.

No different than any of the other talking points. Like allowing businesses to open after months of being closed, opening schools, allowing travel all over the country, keeping big box stores open, and allowing protests with thousands of people....but then acting SHOCKED that cases are going up. :lol:



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BigBruceBaker
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by BigBruceBaker » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:05 pm

coachouert wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:25 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:19 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:15 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:07 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:21 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:15 am
Iaa, was the mask order put into effect on the 11th? I can't remember, I was thinking somewhere towards the first week(ish) of August.

I found this on google, overall the cases seem to be coming down from a high point in July.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALe ... u-H8uQAAAA
I don't know. I just saw the graph take a big dip beginning the 11th, so I started there to intentionally skew the data in Bullock's favor. :wink:

Of course if it continues to go down it's because there's "no testing, no cases" or it doesn't really matter because people didn't start wearing masks due to the mandate. :sick: If it goes away completely, it's just taking it's natural course and has nothing to do with any preventive measures. It'll just have disappeared.
Haha you picked a terrible start date then. I'd have picked like august 13th lol.

It's not going away completely, I think we will still be dealing with it in Spring unfortunately.
Schools are opening up, so that's a big test. I sat in on an orientation conference call between parents/students and administrators yesterday. I was impressed with how seriously the admins are taking this. The bottom line is "we're all in this together' for it to work. But they have a what sounds like a very good plan in place. One that I think all Montana schools are using. Only time will tell how effective it is.
I haven't looked, when I was at MSU there were still those huge chemistry etc. classes that had like 200 kids in them. Do they have a plan for those?
They are blending courses, especially bigger ones where students are split into groups: some in class, some online and then flip. Most smaller classes are still in person in larger rooms. I teach a class of 17 this semester, all 17 are in the room that normally has a capacity of around 45. I also teach a larger class with 75. We are in a room that typically holds 100+, but due to social distancing, I can have up to roughly 40 in the class at a time so I split them and will have one group in class and the other online before flipping them the next week.
Thanks! Really appreciate hearing from a professor. Its going to be an interesting year, I wish you and all the other faculty (and students) the best of luck.


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BigBruceBaker
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by BigBruceBaker » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:07 pm

Hawks86 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:27 am
Man you are a twitter wiz, thanks for posting!


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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by TomCat88 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:50 pm

Lots of masks in Montana. So far I’ve seen Batman and Robin, Green Hornet, Lone Ranger, and Catwoman ((twice)) :). Actually with Catwoman right now.


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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by wapiti » Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 pm

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... 9-0009.pdf
1981: Surgeon’s medical mask study concludes, “minimum contamination can best be achieved by not wearing a mask at all”
Last edited by wapiti on Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by wbtfg » Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:56 pm

wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...01509-0009.pdf
1981: Surgeon’s medical mask study concludes, “minimum contamination can best be achieved by not wearing a mask at all”
Link doesn’t work



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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by wapiti » Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:58 pm

wbtfg wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:56 pm
wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...01509-0009.pdf
1981: Surgeon’s medical mask study concludes, “minimum contamination can best be achieved by not wearing a mask at all”
Link doesn’t work
It should be fixed now.



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The Butcher
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by The Butcher » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:49 am

wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:58 pm
wbtfg wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:56 pm
wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...01509-0009.pdf
1981: Surgeon’s medical mask study concludes, “minimum contamination can best be achieved by not wearing a mask at all”
Link doesn’t work
It should be fixed now.
Page still not found.
I would just make a simple point; when one doctor or study says something is effective or ineffective, why do some people so willfully dismiss the multitudes of doctors and studies that say otherwise?



iaafan
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by iaafan » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:07 am

The Butcher wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:49 am
wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:58 pm
wbtfg wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:56 pm
wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...01509-0009.pdf
1981: Surgeon’s medical mask study concludes, “minimum contamination can best be achieved by not wearing a mask at all”
Link doesn’t work
It should be fixed now.
Page still not found.
I would just make a simple point; when one doctor or study says something is effective or ineffective, why do some people so willfully dismiss the multitudes of doctors and studies that say otherwise?
I don’t know, but I’ll take a stab at that one: because the doctor said it in 1981?



wapiti
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by wapiti » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:11 am

The Butcher wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:49 am
wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:58 pm
wbtfg wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:56 pm
wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...01509-0009.pdf
1981: Surgeon’s medical mask study concludes, “minimum contamination can best be achieved by not wearing a mask at all”
Link doesn’t work
It should be fixed now.
Page still not found.
I would just make a simple point; when one doctor or study says something is effective or ineffective, why do some people so willfully dismiss the multitudes of doctors and studies that say otherwise?
The link works for me. Click on the link in my post.

You are not arguing against me, but against science. This study showed a decrease in infections from surgeries when a mask was not used.
yes, this is just one study, I understand that, but the results are eye opening. The results surprised me.



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wbtfg
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by wbtfg » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:29 am

wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:58 pm
wbtfg wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:56 pm
wapiti wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:54 pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...01509-0009.pdf
1981: Surgeon’s medical mask study concludes, “minimum contamination can best be achieved by not wearing a mask at all”
Link doesn’t work
It should be fixed now.
I keep getting: “The requested page does not exist”



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RickRund
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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by RickRund » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:33 pm

I got wapiti's link to work. It comes out as a pdf...



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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by TomCat88 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:45 pm

Blood letting was the go to cure for a lot of things in 1081.


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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by BigBruceBaker » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:05 am

Well cases definitely aren't going down by much. There are a ton of causes of this I'm sure, from kids returning to school to vacationers (both to and from Montana) to larger gatherings.

I was hoping with this mask mandate we would start seeing a big drop in cases and hopefully get back to a more normal life by the middle of fall, it doesn't seem to be happening.


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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by LTown Cat » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:34 pm

BigBruceBaker wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:05 am
Well cases definitely aren't going down by much. There are a ton of causes of this I'm sure, from kids returning to school to vacationers (both to and from Montana) to larger gatherings.

I was hoping with this mask mandate we would start seeing a big drop in cases and hopefully get back to a more normal life by the middle of fall, it doesn't seem to be happening.
About another week gone by and still no downward trend to speak of. I'm guessing the next few weeks we could see some pretty big spikes in cases due to school, sports, etc. as you mentioned.



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Re: Masks in Montana

Post by wbtfg » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:41 pm

LTown Cat wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:34 pm
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:05 am
Well cases definitely aren't going down by much. There are a ton of causes of this I'm sure, from kids returning to school to vacationers (both to and from Montana) to larger gatherings.

I was hoping with this mask mandate we would start seeing a big drop in cases and hopefully get back to a more normal life by the middle of fall, it doesn't seem to be happening.
About another week gone by and still no downward trend to speak of. I'm guessing the next few weeks we could see some pretty big spikes in cases due to school, sports, etc. as you mentioned.
It sure seems like it depends on the county. But yeah, statewide, it sure seems like things have stayed pretty steady....mostly driven by Yellowstone and two or three other "hot spot" counties.



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