Is the economy really that bad?

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Cataholic
Member # Retired
Posts: 2529
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:09 pm

Re: Is the economy really that bad?

Post by Cataholic » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:43 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:23 pm
91catAlum wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:44 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:29 am
91catAlum wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:07 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:31 am
91catAlum wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:28 pm

And hopefully when the bill comes due for the $25,000,000,000,000 national debt, I'll be retired or on to the next life.
:lol:

Me too! I guess in theory the economy will never be bad if we just keep printing monopoly money for the folks!

Just like the virus itself, I'm guessing we won't truly see the impacts of the shutdown for a few months and years ahead. Like you pointed out, right now the people that I envision struggling in the coming months are doing great! People making a few hundred dollars a week are now making almost $1000 a week. Not working. Sounds amazing to me.

However, in a month or so, whenever people aren't getting that government money, we'll see how they do. :-^
Right. That extra $600/week comes to an end in July, but you can still collect Unemployment Insurance beyond that, of course.
Right now a new UI program called "Extended Benefits" is being added which allows you to stay on UI for an extra 3 months or so beyond the usual timeframe (28 weeks i think?? not sure). But the pay rate will not have the extra $600/week so at least the incentive to NOT work will be gone soon.
Isn't unemployment rebounding at historic rates? I thought Trump said that the decrease in unemployment was a record. If it's coming back that fast, then will it be over by the fall? It doesn't seem like it's as bad as the Great Recession in the 2000s, but that's just the way it seems to me. I'm not much when it comes to economics. What little I see in the news they make it sound like it's worse than that and maybe as bad as the Great Depression. Kind of hard to say though since those were different times. Almost everyone has running water, sewage systems, good roads, etc. nowadays. I have renters that are a couple that I would think would be most effected by this, but they're always reassuring me that they're fine, no problems, don't worry.

I guess the USA is still the richest country in the world even during tough times, so we should be as capable as anyone of taking care of our own during tough financial times. Hard to say though. Very confusing.
I can't speak for the country but I can tell you that the numbers have been decreasing over the last 3-4 weeks in Montana. I dont know what the "record" is but when you go from 50,000 unemployed to 40,000 in 3 weeks, that probably is a record! :lol: But its still a really high number, so again it depends on which angle you want to see it from.
I need someone to dumb this down for me as I must be missing something.

If you force people to quit working and shelter in place, and unemployment goes through the roof.....then you allow people to work again, isn't that automatically going to rebound unemployment at historic rates? How is this even a comparison?

Like I said, I assume I'm missing something here.
Unfortunately, a lot of companies won’t recover from the shut down and many of those jobs will never materialize again. Basically, fewer jobs will be available creating higher unemployment.



ilovethecats
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Posts: 4494
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:12 pm

Re: Is the economy really that bad?

Post by ilovethecats » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:50 pm

Cataholic wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:43 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:23 pm
91catAlum wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:44 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:29 am
91catAlum wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:07 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:31 am
91catAlum wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:28 pm

And hopefully when the bill comes due for the $25,000,000,000,000 national debt, I'll be retired or on to the next life.
:lol:

Me too! I guess in theory the economy will never be bad if we just keep printing monopoly money for the folks!

Just like the virus itself, I'm guessing we won't truly see the impacts of the shutdown for a few months and years ahead. Like you pointed out, right now the people that I envision struggling in the coming months are doing great! People making a few hundred dollars a week are now making almost $1000 a week. Not working. Sounds amazing to me.

However, in a month or so, whenever people aren't getting that government money, we'll see how they do. :-^
Right. That extra $600/week comes to an end in July, but you can still collect Unemployment Insurance beyond that, of course.
Right now a new UI program called "Extended Benefits" is being added which allows you to stay on UI for an extra 3 months or so beyond the usual timeframe (28 weeks i think?? not sure). But the pay rate will not have the extra $600/week so at least the incentive to NOT work will be gone soon.
Isn't unemployment rebounding at historic rates? I thought Trump said that the decrease in unemployment was a record. If it's coming back that fast, then will it be over by the fall? It doesn't seem like it's as bad as the Great Recession in the 2000s, but that's just the way it seems to me. I'm not much when it comes to economics. What little I see in the news they make it sound like it's worse than that and maybe as bad as the Great Depression. Kind of hard to say though since those were different times. Almost everyone has running water, sewage systems, good roads, etc. nowadays. I have renters that are a couple that I would think would be most effected by this, but they're always reassuring me that they're fine, no problems, don't worry.

I guess the USA is still the richest country in the world even during tough times, so we should be as capable as anyone of taking care of our own during tough financial times. Hard to say though. Very confusing.
I can't speak for the country but I can tell you that the numbers have been decreasing over the last 3-4 weeks in Montana. I dont know what the "record" is but when you go from 50,000 unemployed to 40,000 in 3 weeks, that probably is a record! :lol: But its still a really high number, so again it depends on which angle you want to see it from.
I need someone to dumb this down for me as I must be missing something.

If you force people to quit working and shelter in place, and unemployment goes through the roof.....then you allow people to work again, isn't that automatically going to rebound unemployment at historic rates? How is this even a comparison?

Like I said, I assume I'm missing something here.
Unfortunately, a lot of companies won’t recover from the shut down and many of those jobs will never materialize again. Basically, fewer jobs will be available creating higher unemployment.
Oh I completely agree with that. I think many places are gone for good. It’s terrible.

I’m just saying, if I’m throwing a party and I tell 100 people they’re not allowed to come, but then the next day I tell them they all can come......even if 20 people tell me to get bent I went from 0 people to 80 people overnight. Kind of...

I guess I don’t understand. I’m gonna go have drinks.



Cataholic
Member # Retired
Posts: 2529
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:09 pm

Re: Is the economy really that bad?

Post by Cataholic » Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:29 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:50 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:43 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:23 pm
91catAlum wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:44 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:29 am
91catAlum wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:07 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:31 am
91catAlum wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:28 pm

And hopefully when the bill comes due for the $25,000,000,000,000 national debt, I'll be retired or on to the next life.
:lol:

Me too! I guess in theory the economy will never be bad if we just keep printing monopoly money for the folks!

Just like the virus itself, I'm guessing we won't truly see the impacts of the shutdown for a few months and years ahead. Like you pointed out, right now the people that I envision struggling in the coming months are doing great! People making a few hundred dollars a week are now making almost $1000 a week. Not working. Sounds amazing to me.

However, in a month or so, whenever people aren't getting that government money, we'll see how they do. :-^
Right. That extra $600/week comes to an end in July, but you can still collect Unemployment Insurance beyond that, of course.
Right now a new UI program called "Extended Benefits" is being added which allows you to stay on UI for an extra 3 months or so beyond the usual timeframe (28 weeks i think?? not sure). But the pay rate will not have the extra $600/week so at least the incentive to NOT work will be gone soon.
Isn't unemployment rebounding at historic rates? I thought Trump said that the decrease in unemployment was a record. If it's coming back that fast, then will it be over by the fall? It doesn't seem like it's as bad as the Great Recession in the 2000s, but that's just the way it seems to me. I'm not much when it comes to economics. What little I see in the news they make it sound like it's worse than that and maybe as bad as the Great Depression. Kind of hard to say though since those were different times. Almost everyone has running water, sewage systems, good roads, etc. nowadays. I have renters that are a couple that I would think would be most effected by this, but they're always reassuring me that they're fine, no problems, don't worry.

I guess the USA is still the richest country in the world even during tough times, so we should be as capable as anyone of taking care of our own during tough financial times. Hard to say though. Very confusing.
I can't speak for the country but I can tell you that the numbers have been decreasing over the last 3-4 weeks in Montana. I dont know what the "record" is but when you go from 50,000 unemployed to 40,000 in 3 weeks, that probably is a record! :lol: But its still a really high number, so again it depends on which angle you want to see it from.
I need someone to dumb this down for me as I must be missing something.

If you force people to quit working and shelter in place, and unemployment goes through the roof.....then you allow people to work again, isn't that automatically going to rebound unemployment at historic rates? How is this even a comparison?

Like I said, I assume I'm missing something here.
Unfortunately, a lot of companies won’t recover from the shut down and many of those jobs will never materialize again. Basically, fewer jobs will be available creating higher unemployment.
Oh I completely agree with that. I think many places are gone for good. It’s terrible.

I’m just saying, if I’m throwing a party and I tell 100 people they’re not allowed to come, but then the next day I tell them they all can come......even if 20 people tell me to get bent I went from 0 people to 80 people overnight. Kind of...

I guess I don’t understand. I’m gonna go have drinks.
Sorry. I am probably just not explaining it very well. Or maybe I misunderstood your question. I will use a similar example to yours above to try and explain.

If prior to Covid, only 97 jobs existed but 100 people wanted employment, you would have an unemployment rate of 3% (the 3 people who couldn’t find a job).

With the shutdown, there are layoffs and only 75 jobs exist leaving 25 people who can’t find work resulting in 25% unemployment.

After Covid, companies reopen but a number either scale back or went out of business. Now there are only 90 jobs available and 10 seeking work for 10% employment.

So basically, there will be fewer jobs available after the shutdown with the same number in the workforce seeking work.

Before anybody tears this apart, this is just a simplified example to illustrate a point.



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BigBruceBaker
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Re: Is the economy really that bad?

Post by BigBruceBaker » Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:06 am

Cataholic wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:37 pm
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:06 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:54 am
BigBruceBaker wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:28 am
The Butcher wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:53 am
Another area that has took an absolute beating is the minority population. In May's unemployment report African Americans rose to 16.8% — the highest level in a decade. The unemployment rate for Latino workers was 17.6%, while the rate for white workers was 12.4%.
Wow those numbers are scary. What were they before covid?
They were at historic lows. Our economy was arguably the strongest it has been in the past 50 years.
I know they were, I want to see the same breakdown that @The Butcher just showed. Statistics are awesome, but they ALWAYS need context.
The unemployment rate towards the end of last year was 3.5%. It was the lowest since 1969. The jobless rate for Hispanics hit a record low of 3.9% in September, while African Americans maintained its lowest rate ever, 5.5%.
The unemployment rate for Asian Americans was 2.5% in September. The jobless rate for adult women came in at 3.1%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/black-a ... d-low.html
Appreciate this.

So:
Hispanics.... 3.9% before COVID to 17.6% currently
African Americans.....5.5% before COVID to 16.8% currently
Whites.....3.2% before COVID to 12.4% currently

Hispanics have been hit the hardest with the COVID 19 crisis followed by African Americans by percentage of their respective populations. White have lost the most number of jobs (because of the population discrepancy).

Overall this doesn't surprise me knowing that COVID 19 has hit the Coasts the hardest (specifically the East Coast) and the population densities of minorities are much larger in big cities.

Regardless of race this has been devastating for so many people and businesses, I hope we all can recover from it.


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catatac
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Re: Is the economy really that bad?

Post by catatac » Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:26 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:04 pm
I've always believed a bad economy is really bad. People are really hammering on Trump over it, but he seems to think it's okay and I have to say, I don't see any soup kitchens popping up and no one jumping out of Wall Street windows. Is it too soon for that? I also recall the Great Recession supposedly being the second worst recession ever -- next to the Great Depression -- only to have it stopped by ARRA fairly easily it seemed to me. Did we learn so much from the Great Depression that we now have a playbook to rebound from any economic downturn.

Trump is saying that unemployment is fine, the stock market is excellent, so I'm just kind of wondering where are the numbers to back up that this economy is really tanking. Why aren't people in the streets protesting anymore? Did they all just decide it isn't so bad? I've heard all these dire predictions, but I don't see much happening along those lines. Are the stimulus checks helping that much?

The worst thing I've seen so far is that Starbucks is closing 200 stores, but they have them across the street from each other, so maybe that's just a natural retraction?

I just looked at Fox News and there's nothing there about the economy tanking.
Economics wasn't my favorite class in college, and I don't want to brag or anything but I did nail a solid C in my 400 level Econ class my senior year. :lol:

The GDP dropped 4.8% in about eight weeks. That is staggering, and unprecedented. The 2008 debacle was I believe the worst on record up until 2020 and if memory serves that was only like 3% and was over a 2 or 3 year time span. Someone way smarter than me can correct my numbers and probably explain this better.


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