Montana doing Covid-19 right

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Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by TomCat88 » Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:17 am

Just my opinion, but I really like the way our state has conducted itself during this whole thing.

The MHSA director kept the tournaments going until the first cases arrived and no one at any of the tournaments caught coronavirus, which you can call good fortune, but it is what it is.

We also seem to have shutdown at the right time. If you have been following the numbers in adjacent states, especially ND and SD. All three states were on the same path in terms of cases and deaths, but first SD and now ND are seeing relatively large spikes while Montana is flattening.

I also like how people have been able to keep their heads about it. I don't see any outright tree-hugging or over-the-top hillbilly escapades on either side of the fence. People anxious for the state to re-open have been patient and those anxious about the spread have been accepting of the pace of decisions.

I haven't heard any stories of people confronting each other or people intentionally coughing on food in grocery stores and the like. People respect each others space and their opinions for the most part. While a lot of other parts of the country seem to be on the verge of being violently divided on this, people here seem like they've come together.


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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by wapiti » Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:32 am

Nearly half of the counties do not have a case of Covid-19.
Their restrictions should be less stringent.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by TomCat88 » Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:42 am

wapiti wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:32 am
Nearly half of the counties do not have a case of Covid-19.
Their restrictions should be less stringent.
Yes, counties with less cases should have less restrictions than counties with more cases. Within counties some businesses should be open and some should only be open with certain self-restrictions.

You have to really wonder if bars and gyms will be open. People losing their inhibitions in a rowdy bar high-fiving, hugging, fist-bumping, etc. There's a constant exchange of credit cards, cash, mugs, bottles, glasses and then people sharing bathrooms. Of all the businesses out there, bars seem like the most conducive to spreading germs. Gyms are pretty bad, too. Everyone touching the same equipment and breathing hard. Not sure what effect the chlorine in gym pools/hot tubs has on Covid-19.

Hopefully we don't have people that will go out and ruin this. It probably won't take much. It's a good time to be selfish about your space and respect the space of others.

I feel like this is a big test. The tourism season is going to be a big hurdle.


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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by 91catAlum » Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:07 pm

Other than the initial panic with the grocery and toilet paper hoarding last month, I agree that Montana has conducted itself very well.


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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by catatac » Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:24 am

Generally speaking, I think the MT reaction to everything has been OK. Each state government, like the U.S. government is basically in a catch 22. Coming off as too lenient, or too strict with the restrictions will of course send people with opposing viewpoints into a tailspin.

I still have three main concerns with this pandemic.

First, the media. Bill Mahar did a 5 minute video the other day that was spot on, and hilarious. Some of the stupid, misleading headlines out there are ridiculous. But I get it - the scarier and nastier you can make this whole thing sound, the more your stories will sell. Unfortunately though, the majority of people let the media mass hysteria impact their decisions... which is why you had near riots in some cases, and why it was almost impossible to buy a roll of toilet paper.

Second, the definition of "Essential" businesses. It's not fair to some of the small business owners that have to shut down, while the large box stores are business as usual. I also don't think it's right that I can walk into a dealership, let's say Harley Davidson... shop around for a Harley or HD merchandise.. but I can't go to my favorite BBQ place to sit down and have dinner and a beer.

Last, I am going to make the flu comparison. If the purpose of shutting the country down is solely for saving lives, then why don't we do the shutdown and isolation thing every year? The numbers vary, but certainly tens of thousands in the U.S. die every year from the flu, and a couple years ago I think they estimate 80,000 deaths in the U.S. from the flu? I've heard the argument, it's because this is new and we don't have a vaccine or antibiotics yet. Well we do have them for the flu, but tens of thousands still die annually, so why don't we implement social distancing rules and business shutdowns every flu season?


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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by TomCat88 » Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:24 pm

catatac wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:24 am
Generally speaking, I think the MT reaction to everything has been OK. Each state government, like the U.S. government is basically in a catch 22. Coming off as too lenient, or too strict with the restrictions will of course send people with opposing viewpoints into a tailspin.

I still have three main concerns with this pandemic.

First, the media. Bill Mahar did a 5 minute video the other day that was spot on, and hilarious. Some of the stupid, misleading headlines out there are ridiculous. But I get it - the scarier and nastier you can make this whole thing sound, the more your stories will sell. Unfortunately though, the majority of people let the media mass hysteria impact their decisions... which is why you had near riots in some cases, and why it was almost impossible to buy a roll of toilet paper.

Second, the definition of "Essential" businesses. It's not fair to some of the small business owners that have to shut down, while the large box stores are business as usual. I also don't think it's right that I can walk into a dealership, let's say Harley Davidson... shop around for a Harley or HD merchandise.. but I can't go to my favorite BBQ place to sit down and have dinner and a beer.

Last, I am going to make the flu comparison. If the purpose of shutting the country down is solely for saving lives, then why don't we do the shutdown and isolation thing every year? The numbers vary, but certainly tens of thousands in the U.S. die every year from the flu, and a couple years ago I think they estimate 80,000 deaths in the U.S. from the flu? I've heard the argument, it's because this is new and we don't have a vaccine or antibiotics yet. Well we do have them for the flu, but tens of thousands still die annually, so why don't we implement social distancing rules and business shutdowns every flu season?
Which state(s) is Montana similar to in the catch 22, like the U.S. government?

In what way is Montana just OK? Is that relative to the rest of the U.S. or the rest of the world or...?


Yeah, the Bill Maher thing was great.

Harley Davidson shops probably don't have quite as much interaction as a restaurant. The waiter brings a menu (one of the dirtiest things in any business), brings your water, food (as does the cook), silverware, napkins, butter, dinner rolls, bill, dessert. You probably use the bathroom to wash hands at least at restaurant, might go through a salad bar line, sit in chairs someone else was just sitting in.

If this was the first time we ever had the flu and their was no vaccine for it and no Tamiflu, then we'd shut the country down. If this was the 100th year that we had coronavirus and we had a vaccine, Tamiflu, then we wouldn't shut the country down for Covid-19.


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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by catatac » Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:02 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:24 pm
catatac wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:24 am
Generally speaking, I think the MT reaction to everything has been OK. Each state government, like the U.S. government is basically in a catch 22. Coming off as too lenient, or too strict with the restrictions will of course send people with opposing viewpoints into a tailspin.

I still have three main concerns with this pandemic.

First, the media. Bill Mahar did a 5 minute video the other day that was spot on, and hilarious. Some of the stupid, misleading headlines out there are ridiculous. But I get it - the scarier and nastier you can make this whole thing sound, the more your stories will sell. Unfortunately though, the majority of people let the media mass hysteria impact their decisions... which is why you had near riots in some cases, and why it was almost impossible to buy a roll of toilet paper.

Second, the definition of "Essential" businesses. It's not fair to some of the small business owners that have to shut down, while the large box stores are business as usual. I also don't think it's right that I can walk into a dealership, let's say Harley Davidson... shop around for a Harley or HD merchandise.. but I can't go to my favorite BBQ place to sit down and have dinner and a beer.

Last, I am going to make the flu comparison. If the purpose of shutting the country down is solely for saving lives, then why don't we do the shutdown and isolation thing every year? The numbers vary, but certainly tens of thousands in the U.S. die every year from the flu, and a couple years ago I think they estimate 80,000 deaths in the U.S. from the flu? I've heard the argument, it's because this is new and we don't have a vaccine or antibiotics yet. Well we do have them for the flu, but tens of thousands still die annually, so why don't we implement social distancing rules and business shutdowns every flu season?
Which state(s) is Montana similar to in the catch 22, like the U.S. government?

In what way is Montana just OK? Is that relative to the rest of the U.S. or the rest of the world or...?


Yeah, the Bill Maher thing was great.

Harley Davidson shops probably don't have quite as much interaction as a restaurant. The waiter brings a menu (one of the dirtiest things in any business), brings your water, food (as does the cook), silverware, napkins, butter, dinner rolls, bill, dessert. You probably use the bathroom to wash hands at least at restaurant, might go through a salad bar line, sit in chairs someone else was just sitting in.

If this was the first time we ever had the flu and their was no vaccine for it and no Tamiflu, then we'd shut the country down. If this was the 100th year that we had coronavirus and we had a vaccine, Tamiflu, then we wouldn't shut the country down for Covid-19.
I didn't say anything about comparing MT to how other states are handling this, so you might have missed my point there. Maybe I didn't state it clearly. My point is that each Governor, like the President, has very difficult choices to make about how much to shut down the economy. There are people sitting on both sides here, some thinking this is the apocalypse and we all better head for the bomb shelters... and others that say this virus isn't that big of a deal and it doesn't warrant the governments stepping in and making us modify any of our behaviors. Most people fall somewhere between those extremes, so as I said, I think Bullock is doing OK given who all he is trying to make happy. Personally I lean towards loosening restrictions and measures taken but I understand others don't feel that way.

As for the Harley example, my point there is I think we should be smarter about who and how we clamp down in terms of businesses. There are smarter ways to do this than to say, all non essential businesses need to shut down whereas "essential" businesses stay open, based on somebody's definition of essential. Why is it essential that I"m allowed to hang out in the Harley store all day, touch all the bikes, test drive a few, use their bathroom, buy some Harley bling, and then go home? The restaurant thing you mention is not at all what I had in mind. I think there could be rules and guidelines to follow that would make it completely reasonable for me to drop by Big Mouth BBQ, order a pulled pork sammich and a beer, have my dinner and then go home. I went to Home Depot the other day to buy a drill bit and between the two workers that helped my find the right type and size of bit (I brought in a different bit to make sure I got the same exact size), and the check out person, I promise you I had way more contact and interaction with other people than I do when I eat at Big Mouth BBQ.


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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by wapiti » Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:39 am

I think Bullock did a poor job leading through this pandemic.

He imposed his orders on counties that did not have a case of Covid-19.
He also did nothing for developing a plan to lift his orders until the Feds made a plan to reopen.

It will be interesting to see how close he follows the Federal suggestions.
The counties without a case of Covid-19 are already at phase 3.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by iaafan » Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:29 am

I think Montana did a great job. All you have to do is look at ND and SD and you can see we did the right thing. The degree of uncertainty in those two states is way higher than in Montana. They didn't gain much by staying open, because a lot of people weren't using businesses much where they deemed risk to be high. Short time gain for a long time loss.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:51 am

iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:29 am
I think Montana did a great job. All you have to do is look at ND and SD and you can see we did the right thing. The degree of uncertainty in those two states is way higher than in Montana. They didn't gain much by staying open, because a lot of people weren't using businesses much where they deemed risk to be high. Short time gain for a long time loss.
It's funny because I was going to use those states to support the other side!

It's obviously far too early to determine, and no doubt we'll see more deaths in these states. But last I checked both only had a few more deaths than we did, despite not taking the same action.

Had it not been for that meat packing plant in South Dakota, they would have been the poster child of not shutting down the economy. We'll see how much their deaths ramp up in the coming weeks.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:58 am

wapiti wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:39 am
I think Bullock did a poor job leading through this pandemic.

He imposed his orders on counties that did not have a case of Covid-19.
He also did nothing for developing a plan to lift his orders until the Feds made a plan to reopen.

It will be interesting to see how close he follows the Federal suggestions.
The counties without a case of Covid-19 are already at phase 3.
I've made no bones about my thoughts on the pandemic and am one on the side lobbying to open the economy back up. That said, your comment shows just how impossible it is to be a leader these days. If he waited until their was enough deaths to warrant action it would have been too late. Because he took action before deaths he was too early! Not an easy place to be.

We know social distancing works. However, the biggest question remains whether it is playing the biggest role in our numbers staying so low; or is it because the virus was never that dangerous or because a much larger percentage have already had it and never knew it.

We won't know that for a while obviously. But in my eyes it's a slippery slope. Being told that something amongst us is so deadly it could kill millions. Being told to close businesses. Being forced to stay home. The being told those steps were the sole reason that we had almost no deaths is hard for me to jump on board with. And I don't know what would stop this from just being a way of life going forward? That bothers me.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by wapiti » Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:58 am

ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:58 am
wapiti wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:39 am
I think Bullock did a poor job leading through this pandemic.

He imposed his orders on counties that did not have a case of Covid-19.
He also did nothing for developing a plan to lift his orders until the Feds made a plan to reopen.

It will be interesting to see how close he follows the Federal suggestions.
The counties without a case of Covid-19 are already at phase 3.
I've made no bones about my thoughts on the pandemic and am one on the side lobbying to open the economy back up. That said, your comment shows just how impossible it is to be a leader these days. If he waited until their was enough deaths to warrant action it would have been too late. Because he took action before deaths he was too early! Not an easy place to be.

We know social distancing works. However, the biggest question remains whether it is playing the biggest role in our numbers staying so low; or is it because the virus was never that dangerous or because a much larger percentage have already had it and never knew it.

We won't know that for a while obviously. But in my eyes it's a slippery slope. Being told that something amongst us is so deadly it could kill millions. Being told to close businesses. Being forced to stay home. The being told those steps were the sole reason that we had almost no deaths is hard for me to jump on board with. And I don't know what would stop this from just being a way of life going forward? That bothers me.
My issue with Bullock is not with the initial action he took, but the lack of action since then.
We now have more data about the virus and the counties without a case should already have restrictions being lifted.
and Bullock appeared to be doing nothing to plan for lifting the closures until Trump and Feds submitted a plan.

The counties that never reported a case will already be at phase 3 of the Feds plan. So it will be interesting if Bullock will follow that guideline for these counties.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:07 am

wapiti wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:58 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:58 am
wapiti wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:39 am
I think Bullock did a poor job leading through this pandemic.

He imposed his orders on counties that did not have a case of Covid-19.
He also did nothing for developing a plan to lift his orders until the Feds made a plan to reopen.

It will be interesting to see how close he follows the Federal suggestions.
The counties without a case of Covid-19 are already at phase 3.
I've made no bones about my thoughts on the pandemic and am one on the side lobbying to open the economy back up. That said, your comment shows just how impossible it is to be a leader these days. If he waited until their was enough deaths to warrant action it would have been too late. Because he took action before deaths he was too early! Not an easy place to be.

We know social distancing works. However, the biggest question remains whether it is playing the biggest role in our numbers staying so low; or is it because the virus was never that dangerous or because a much larger percentage have already had it and never knew it.

We won't know that for a while obviously. But in my eyes it's a slippery slope. Being told that something amongst us is so deadly it could kill millions. Being told to close businesses. Being forced to stay home. The being told those steps were the sole reason that we had almost no deaths is hard for me to jump on board with. And I don't know what would stop this from just being a way of life going forward? That bothers me.
My issue with Bullock is not with the initial action he took, but the lack of action since then.
We now have more data about the virus and the counties without a case should already have restrictions being lifted.
and Bullock appeared to be doing nothing to plan for lifting the closures until Trump and Feds submitted a plan.

The counties that never reported a case will already be at phase 3 of the Feds plan. So it will be interesting if Bullock will follow that guideline for these counties.
Gotcha. And I totally agree.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by iaafan » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:26 am

ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:51 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:29 am
I think Montana did a great job. All you have to do is look at ND and SD and you can see we did the right thing. The degree of uncertainty in those two states is way higher than in Montana. They didn't gain much by staying open, because a lot of people weren't using businesses much where they deemed risk to be high. Short time gain for a long time loss.
It's funny because I was going to use those states to support the other side!

It's obviously far too early to determine, and no doubt we'll see more deaths in these states. But last I checked both only had a few more deaths than we did, despite not taking the same action.

Had it not been for that meat packing plant in South Dakota, they would have been the poster child of not shutting down the economy. We'll see how much their deaths ramp up in the coming weeks.
The deaths haven’t gone up at the same time with the cases. It takes awhile for a case to kill someone. SD’s just started going up relatively dramatically about a week ago. ND’s more recently than that. Let’s pray you’re right though.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by iaafan » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:38 am

It appears Montana has zero cases and no deaths in its report today!! (Web page is supposed to update at 10:00 am and it’s past 10:30)

ND 42 new cases and three deaths.

SD no report yet.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:41 am

iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:26 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:51 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:29 am
I think Montana did a great job. All you have to do is look at ND and SD and you can see we did the right thing. The degree of uncertainty in those two states is way higher than in Montana. They didn't gain much by staying open, because a lot of people weren't using businesses much where they deemed risk to be high. Short time gain for a long time loss.
It's funny because I was going to use those states to support the other side!

It's obviously far too early to determine, and no doubt we'll see more deaths in these states. But last I checked both only had a few more deaths than we did, despite not taking the same action.

Had it not been for that meat packing plant in South Dakota, they would have been the poster child of not shutting down the economy. We'll see how much their deaths ramp up in the coming weeks.
The deaths haven’t gone up at the same time with the cases. It takes awhile for a case to kill someone. SD’s just started going up relatively dramatically about a week ago. ND’s more recently than that. Let’s pray you’re right though.
Totally. I get all that. No doubt they will go up. The question will be how much, and where should we draw the line?

I've prefaced before that even one death is too many. I'm not trying to be insensitive. That said, what would the "magic number" be in South Dakota for instance? If their deaths dramatically increase to 100 people, would that have warranted shutting the state down? What if only 50 people die? Or fewer?

On the flip side, what is the number for them to look really bad in how they acted? Obviously if hundreds start dying many will agree their strategy was bad. But there is a line there I believe where the risk/reward of shutting down an entire state becomes blurry based on deaths.

They'll be two states to really keep an eye on the next couple weeks.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by allcat » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:50 am

iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:38 am
It appears Montana has zero cases and no deaths in its report today!! (Web page is supposed to update at 10:00 am and it’s past 10:30)

ND 42 new cases and three deaths.

SD no report yet.
7 cases, no deaths.


Now sorry for caring about Cat/griz too much. I've been properly chastised by the coach of the other team. :-^

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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by iaafan » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:53 am

allcat wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:50 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:38 am
It appears Montana has zero cases and no deaths in its report today!! (Web page is supposed to update at 10:00 am and it’s past 10:30)

ND 42 new cases and three deaths.

SD no report yet.
7 cases, no deaths.
That’s yesterday.



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by wbtfg » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:56 am

allcat wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:50 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:38 am
It appears Montana has zero cases and no deaths in its report today!! (Web page is supposed to update at 10:00 am and it’s past 10:30)

ND 42 new cases and three deaths.

SD no report yet.
7 cases, no deaths.
where do you see that? The quick glance I took at the state site indicates 0 new cases and says it was updated at 10:00



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Re: Montana doing Covid-19 right

Post by allcat » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:59 am

iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:53 am
allcat wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:50 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:38 am
It appears Montana has zero cases and no deaths in its report today!! (Web page is supposed to update at 10:00 am and it’s past 10:30)

ND 42 new cases and three deaths.

SD no report yet.
7 cases, no deaths.
That’s yesterday.
You are right. The map just updated for me. 0 new. 19 hospitalized.


Now sorry for caring about Cat/griz too much. I've been properly chastised by the coach of the other team. :-^

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