Cure worse than the problem?

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TomCat88
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by TomCat88 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:35 am

rivercat wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:35 am
The Butcher wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:15 pm
Trump spoke of herd “mentality“ at his town hall meeting. I presume he meant herd immunity.

There are approximately 328.2 million people in the US.

To get to the low end of herd immunity, about 60% of the population must catch Covid.

That's about 196,920,000 cases.

The current US death rate is about 2.96%.

So that's 5,836,679 deaths necessary for herd immunity.

Not great.
I see you copied a tweet from CNN's Kyle Feldscher who later took down the tweet down saying:

"I deleted my tweet about herd immunity -- the level of immunity needed to interrupt transmission isn't clear and calculations about infection rates and death rates are more complicated than my simple math implies,"

Feldschers' tweet was responded to with information indicating his simplified math was off by more than a factor of 10.

People that are not epidemiologists or experts knowing the context of the numbers need to stop this kind of crap.
Nice to see Feldsher (any relation to Freida?) took it down. Lots of inaccuracies being shared going both directions. Saw a website saying only 17 people have died from Covid, but no retraction yet.


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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by Cataholic » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm

I happened to be in Bozeman for the first Saturday in some time. Was something special going on today? It was like shopping for holiday season already started. The parking lots were full and the traffic on 19 was worse than Bobcat game days.

Also, disappointing to see so many people in Target without masks. Such a small inconvenience.



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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by wbtfg » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:13 pm

Cataholic wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm
I happened to be in Bozeman for the first Saturday in some time. Was something special going on today? It was like shopping for holiday season already started. The parking lots were full and the traffic on 19 was worse than Bobcat game days.

Also, disappointing to see so many people in Target without masks. Such a small inconvenience.
Welcome to the resistance.



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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by ilovethecats » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:41 am

Cataholic wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm
I happened to be in Bozeman for the first Saturday in some time. Was something special going on today? It was like shopping for holiday season already started. The parking lots were full and the traffic on 19 was worse than Bobcat game days.

Also, disappointing to see so many people in Target without masks. Such a small inconvenience.
This is just typical Bozeman these days. People are coming here in droves. Buying cars and homes, sight unseen. It’s been incredible. But yes, driving, shopping, eating out, is all much more annoying than it was even 6 months ago.



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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by Cataholic » Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:48 am

ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:41 am
Cataholic wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm
I happened to be in Bozeman for the first Saturday in some time. Was something special going on today? It was like shopping for holiday season already started. The parking lots were full and the traffic on 19 was worse than Bobcat game days.

Also, disappointing to see so many people in Target without masks. Such a small inconvenience.
This is just typical Bozeman these days. People are coming here in droves. Buying cars and homes, sight unseen. It’s been incredible. But yes, driving, shopping, eating out, is all much more annoying than it was even 6 months ago.
Crazy. I remember when the interstate off ramp for 19th did not exist just about 20 years ago. Now there are three AA high schools in the area and 19th resembles Reserve street in Missoula.



TomCat88
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by TomCat88 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:07 am

Cataholic wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:48 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:41 am
Cataholic wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm
I happened to be in Bozeman for the first Saturday in some time. Was something special going on today? It was like shopping for holiday season already started. The parking lots were full and the traffic on 19 was worse than Bobcat game days.

Also, disappointing to see so many people in Target without masks. Such a small inconvenience.
This is just typical Bozeman these days. People are coming here in droves. Buying cars and homes, sight unseen. It’s been incredible. But yes, driving, shopping, eating out, is all much more annoying than it was even 6 months ago.
Crazy. I remember when the interstate off ramp for 19th did not exist just about 20 years ago. Now there are three AA high schools in the area and 19th resembles Reserve street in Missoula.
People are coming to a lot of towns in Montana in droves. Friends just sold an old rental house for about $50K over what they expected. Sellers market. Banks are doing a lot of mortgages per day I hear.


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ilovethecats
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by ilovethecats » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:00 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:07 am
Cataholic wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:48 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:41 am
Cataholic wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm
I happened to be in Bozeman for the first Saturday in some time. Was something special going on today? It was like shopping for holiday season already started. The parking lots were full and the traffic on 19 was worse than Bobcat game days.

Also, disappointing to see so many people in Target without masks. Such a small inconvenience.
This is just typical Bozeman these days. People are coming here in droves. Buying cars and homes, sight unseen. It’s been incredible. But yes, driving, shopping, eating out, is all much more annoying than it was even 6 months ago.
Crazy. I remember when the interstate off ramp for 19th did not exist just about 20 years ago. Now there are three AA high schools in the area and 19th resembles Reserve street in Missoula.
People are coming to a lot of towns in Montana in droves. Friends just sold an old rental house for about $50K over what they expected. Sellers market. Banks are doing a lot of mortgages per day I hear.
Ya I imagine many towns are growing. I’d be shocked to learn if any are growing like Bozeman. It’s been nuts to see in person. I read yesterday that median home prices here went up almost $100,000 in a MONTH between July and August. If other towns are seeing it to this level Montana is going to double in size in a few years.



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RickRund
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by RickRund » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:35 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:00 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:07 am
Cataholic wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:48 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:41 am
Cataholic wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm
I happened to be in Bozeman for the first Saturday in some time. Was something special going on today? It was like shopping for holiday season already started. The parking lots were full and the traffic on 19 was worse than Bobcat game days.

Also, disappointing to see so many people in Target without masks. Such a small inconvenience.
This is just typical Bozeman these days. People are coming here in droves. Buying cars and homes, sight unseen. It’s been incredible. But yes, driving, shopping, eating out, is all much more annoying than it was even 6 months ago.
Crazy. I remember when the interstate off ramp for 19th did not exist just about 20 years ago. Now there are three AA high schools in the area and 19th resembles Reserve street in Missoula.
People are coming to a lot of towns in Montana in droves. Friends just sold an old rental house for about $50K over what they expected. Sellers market. Banks are doing a lot of mortgages per day I hear.
Ya I imagine many towns are growing. I’d be shocked to learn if any are growing like Bozeman. It’s been nuts to see in person. I read yesterday that median home prices here went up almost $100,000 in a MONTH between July and August. If other towns are seeing it to this level Montana is going to double in size in a few years.
Crazy... Here in CDA it is nuts. We bought our home here Nov of 17 for $234000. Our Granddaughter and her hubby bought a small 3, 2 home on a smallish lot about 4 years ago for $160000ish. Just sold it in about 3 days had been asking $250000 and went into a bidding war. Sold for $285000. Smallish house not in a subdivision... A few months ago we thought of selling and wondering if we could pull $285000 on a 3, 2 with a mancave, den, FULLY landscaped yard, greenhouse, shed/playhouse, heat/AC, deck, patio and full raingutters. Neighbors have figured we might get $350000. Yep, things are crazy. How long will it last? How much more can it go up.
We want to look at the tax sales coming up and get a small chunk of rural land and drop on a small house. Not in love with the hoa thing very much. Behind us is a half section of alfalfa land that will not be around much longer. Don't want to be around for that.



arvcat2
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by arvcat2 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:38 pm

Is the following the latest CDC survival rates for people who test positive?

Age 0-19 99.997%
Age 20-49 99.98%
Age 50-69 99.5%
Age 70+ 94.6%

If they are, YES to the thread subject line.



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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by The Butcher » Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:50 am

arvcat2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:38 pm
Is the following the latest CDC survival rates for people who test positive?

Age 0-19 99.997%
Age 20-49 99.98%
Age 50-69 99.5%
Age 70+ 94.6%

If they are, YES to the thread subject line.
If herd immunity is 80% of the population based on these survival rates we would lose over a million 70+ Americans. :shrug:



iaafan
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by iaafan » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09 pm

The Butcher wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:50 am
arvcat2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:38 pm
Is the following the latest CDC survival rates for people who test positive?

Age 0-19 99.997%
Age 20-49 99.98%
Age 50-69 99.5%
Age 70+ 94.6%

If they are, YES to the thread subject line.
If herd immunity is 80% of the population based on these survival rates we would lose over a million 70+ Americans. :shrug:
Way over 1 million. Closer to 2 million. 35,000,000 over 70 x 5.4% is roughly 1.8 million. There are >60,000,000 in the 50-69 age bracket. >60,000,000 x 0.5% is 300,000. So easily over 2 million in just those two groups if those numbers hold. That leaves 160,000,000 in the 20-49 bracket, which comes to 8,000.

When 50,000 people die from the flu, 90% is aged. Same as this only not anywhere near as contagious/preventable.



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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by arvcat2 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:53 am

iaafan wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09 pm
The Butcher wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:50 am
arvcat2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:38 pm
Is the following the latest CDC survival rates for people who test positive?

Age 0-19 99.997%
Age 20-49 99.98%
Age 50-69 99.5%
Age 70+ 94.6%

If they are, YES to the thread subject line.
If herd immunity is 80% of the population based on these survival rates we would lose over a million 70+ Americans. :shrug:
Way over 1 million. Closer to 2 million. 35,000,000 over 70 x 5.4% is roughly 1.8 million. There are >60,000,000 in the 50-69 age bracket. >60,000,000 x 0.5% is 300,000. So easily over 2 million in just those two groups if those numbers hold. That leaves 160,000,000 in the 20-49 bracket, which comes to 8,000.

When 50,000 people die from the flu, 90% is aged. Same as this only not anywhere near as contagious/preventable.
Thanks for some arithmetic on this. I am just a simple accountant, so help me out...it appears that both of you make the assumption that everyone will test positive. :shrug:



iaafan
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by iaafan » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:38 am

arvcat2 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:53 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09 pm
The Butcher wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:50 am
arvcat2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:38 pm
Is the following the latest CDC survival rates for people who test positive?

Age 0-19 99.997%
Age 20-49 99.98%
Age 50-69 99.5%
Age 70+ 94.6%

If they are, YES to the thread subject line.
If herd immunity is 80% of the population based on these survival rates we would lose over a million 70+ Americans. :shrug:
Way over 1 million. Closer to 2 million. 35,000,000 over 70 x 5.4% is roughly 1.8 million. There are >60,000,000 in the 50-69 age bracket. >60,000,000 x 0.5% is 300,000. So easily over 2 million in just those two groups if those numbers hold. That leaves 160,000,000 in the 20-49 bracket, which comes to 8,000.

When 50,000 people die from the flu, 90% is aged. Same as this only not anywhere near as contagious/preventable.
Thanks for some arithmetic on this. I am just a simple accountant, so help me out...it appears that both of you make the assumption that everyone will test positive. :shrug:
Yes, that’s true but the number is still closer to 2 million considering the number of people needed to reach herd immunity.
Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-con ... t-20486808



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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by Cataholic » Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:25 am

arvcat2 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:53 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09 pm
The Butcher wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:50 am
arvcat2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:38 pm
Is the following the latest CDC survival rates for people who test positive?

Age 0-19 99.997%
Age 20-49 99.98%
Age 50-69 99.5%
Age 70+ 94.6%

If they are, YES to the thread subject line.
If herd immunity is 80% of the population based on these survival rates we would lose over a million 70+ Americans. :shrug:
Way over 1 million. Closer to 2 million. 35,000,000 over 70 x 5.4% is roughly 1.8 million. There are >60,000,000 in the 50-69 age bracket. >60,000,000 x 0.5% is 300,000. So easily over 2 million in just those two groups if those numbers hold. That leaves 160,000,000 in the 20-49 bracket, which comes to 8,000.

When 50,000 people die from the flu, 90% is aged. Same as this only not anywhere near as contagious/preventable.
Thanks for some arithmetic on this. I am just a simple accountant, so help me out...it appears that both of you make the assumption that everyone will test positive. :shrug:
He has an agenda that I just don’t understand. He wants to scare as many people as possible. In working toward herd immunity, I would fully expect that anyone over 70 (Even 50) would be told to take all safety precautions and avoid getting sick. Yet in his calculations, he assumes that everyone over 50 contracts the disease.



iaafan
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by iaafan » Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:07 am

Cataholic wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:25 am
arvcat2 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:53 am
iaafan wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09 pm
The Butcher wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:50 am
arvcat2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:38 pm
Is the following the latest CDC survival rates for people who test positive?

Age 0-19 99.997%
Age 20-49 99.98%
Age 50-69 99.5%
Age 70+ 94.6%

If they are, YES to the thread subject line.
If herd immunity is 80% of the population based on these survival rates we would lose over a million 70+ Americans. :shrug:
Way over 1 million. Closer to 2 million. 35,000,000 over 70 x 5.4% is roughly 1.8 million. There are >60,000,000 in the 50-69 age bracket. >60,000,000 x 0.5% is 300,000. So easily over 2 million in just those two groups if those numbers hold. That leaves 160,000,000 in the 20-49 bracket, which comes to 8,000.

When 50,000 people die from the flu, 90% is aged. Same as this only not anywhere near as contagious/preventable.
Thanks for some arithmetic on this. I am just a simple accountant, so help me out...it appears that both of you make the assumption that everyone will test positive. :shrug:
He has an agenda that I just don’t understand. He wants to scare as many people as possible. In working toward herd immunity, I would fully expect that anyone over 70 (Even 50) would be told to take all safety precautions and avoid getting sick. Yet in his calculations, he assumes that everyone over 50 contracts the disease.
I'm not trying to scare anyone. Give me a break, literally. I've asked several times now. Nothing I said is scary. It's just a fact, that if you try to do herd immunity with this disease it will kill close to 1.5-2 million people based on the survival rates that arvcat provided. That's what the numbers say, it has nothing to do with me having an agenda or trying to scare anyone. Please cease and desist. It you're going to respond to something I say be constructive (like check my math; I'm totally fine being corrected), not hyperbolic. Otherwise, like I've asked several times, please leave me be. Thanks in advance.
Last edited by iaafan on Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:26 am, edited 2 times in total.



iaafan
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by iaafan » Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:08 am




arvcat2
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by arvcat2 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:33 pm

iaafan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:08 am
Who the fook is far-left Nathan Bernard or Max Linn and why are they relevant to anybody outside of Maine?



iaafan
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by iaafan » Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:10 am

arvcat2 wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:33 pm
iaafan wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:08 am
Who the fook is far-left Nathan Bernard or Max Linn and why are they relevant to anybody outside of Maine?
Max Linn is an independent Senate candidate from Maine running against Susan Collins. I posted it because he's cutting up part of the cure, so that it doesn't make the problem worse. Perhaps the wrong thread.



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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by The Butcher » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:11 pm

Yikes! If POTUS isn’t safe, how are we?

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/01/poli ... index.html



TomCat88
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Re: Cure worse than the problem?

Post by TomCat88 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:19 am

I have a feeling a lot of people are going to start thinking the cure actually is worse than the problem starting this morning.


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