Bracketology

[ilovethecats]

Yeah I think the play in game is for those who don’t have a slot as tournament champs. If we manage to win it will be time to make another “Hoosiers “ movie

Not correct, see my earlier post in this thread. The two 16 v 16 games are always the lowest four auto qualifiers from low/mid major conferences.

Yep. Straight from the NCAA website:

When selecting the teams for the NCAA tournament, the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee ranks every team from No. 1 through No. 68. In its current format, the First Four consists of eight teams — the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams. Each subset plays against itself (i.e., at-large teams face at-large teams, and automatic qualifiers face automatic qualifiers)

[kmax]

Cool site I found that accumulates all the different bracket predictions. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[Camo_Cat]

Cool site I found that accumulates all the different bracket predictions. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Wow, that's a lot of bracket predictions........................

[aucat]

I just like that for the third year in a row we get to discuss where we'll land in the bracket!

I also look forward to the griz fans next week saying how we embarrassed the conference when we lose to a 1-2 seed.....

Ha. Well, last night, the gris embarrassed the state for the second time in about 2 months. Fortunately, the state’s second gris-provided embarrassment was accompanied by a partial restoration, courtesy of the Cats.

Well, that's why Selection Sunday will be fun to watch. To see where we end up. It will be a great experience for the guys and
coaches no matter where we go.

[CelticCat]

As of this morning, ESPN has us as the #15 seed in the West, with a first game matchup against Arizona:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions

And take a look at the 7 seed should the Cats pull off the upset. hmmmmmmmm

I debated making a "We Want Utah State" meme last night after the win...

[tetoncat]

If Cats are 16 play in game for West and win might get Tennessee and Dalton Knecht.

[TomCat88]

Lunardi currently has MSU playing Grambling in a play-in game with the winner playing Purdue.

Grambling is 18-14 overall and 282 in the Massey rankings. One of their most impressive games was a 68-56 loss to a good Drake team. They held Drake’s best player to just 3-17 (1-9 3s) shooting. Not sure if he just had a bad game or if Grambling has a good defensive, shutdown guy. Lost to a very good Wazzu by 18 in a game Dozier had 34 points off the bench. Those losses were part of a nine-game preseason losing streak in which they went 3-10 with the only wins against sub-D1 teams. They were 14-4 in conference games and beat Alcorn State in championship (looks like they just have the top two teams play for league autobid. They lost to them in 2OT just four days earlier.

MSU is ranked 233 in the Massey rankings after a 30 spot jump from winning the BSC tournament.

[MSU01]

Norfolk State is probably the projected First Four team that MSU would most like to avoid. They beat VCU on the road and South Dakota State by 19 on a neutral court. They're right next to MSU in the NET rankings with Grambling and Wagner significantly lower. Not sure how the Selection Committee decides which of the First Four teams to match up together.

[MSU01]

Lunardi currently has MSU playing Grambling in a play-in game with the winner playing Purdue.

Grambling is 18-14 overall and 282 in the Massey rankings. One of their most impressive games was a 68-56 loss to a good Drake team. They held Drake’s best player to just 3-17 (1-9 3s) shooting. Not sure if he just had a bad game or if Grambling has a good defensive, shutdown guy. Lost to a very good Wazzu by 18 in a game Dozier had 34 points off the bench. Those losses were part of a nine-game preseason losing streak in which they went 3-10 with the only wins against sub-D1 teams. They were 14-4 in conference games and beat Alcorn State in championship (looks like they just have the top two teams play for league autobid. They lost to them in 2OT just four days earlier.

MSU is ranked 233 in the Massey rankings after a 30 spot jump from winning the BSC tournament.

Grambling is still in its conference tournament. They beat Alabama State in the quarterfinal on Wednesday and play Bethune-Cookman today in the semis.

[TomCat88]

Lunardi currently has MSU playing Grambling in a play-in game with the winner playing Purdue.

Grambling is 18-14 overall and 282 in the Massey rankings. One of their most impressive games was a 68-56 loss to a good Drake team. They held Drake’s best player to just 3-17 (1-9 3s) shooting. Not sure if he just had a bad game or if Grambling has a good defensive, shutdown guy. Lost to a very good Wazzu by 18 in a game Dozier had 34 points off the bench. Those losses were part of a nine-game preseason losing streak in which they went 3-10 with the only wins against sub-D1 teams. They were 14-4 in conference games and beat Alcorn State in championship (looks like they just have the top two teams play for league autobid. They lost to them in 2OT just four days earlier.

MSU is ranked 233 in the Massey rankings after a 30 spot jump from winning the BSC tournament.

Grambling is still in its conference tournament. They beat Alabama State in the quarterfinal on Wednesday and play Bethune-Cookman today in the semis.

Ooooh. I’ll, uh, just show myself out.

[MSU01]

I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.

[Prodigal Cat]

I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.

I'm trying to figure this out but to me it really looks like there isn't a scenario left that would move the Cats out of the play-in game? Most of the lower ranked conference tournaments are finished and those 2 conferences are already predicted be play-in games no matter the champion?

[Catprint]

I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.

I'm trying to figure this out but to me it really looks like there isn't a scenario left that would move the Cats out of the play-in game? Most of the lower ranked conference tournaments are finished and those 2 conferences are already predicted be play-in games no matter the champion?

Sure seems like based on Net Ranking as of this morning, hard to see Cats missing the Play-In game. MSU - 209; Norfolk St -210; Stetson - 207; Wagner - 289; Grambling - 289. Without really any other info I think four lowest seeds are Grambling, Wagner, Norfolk St and MSU. Even if Grambling loses, the winner of the SWAC will be in the play-in game. Same with Norfolk State - Everyone is worse. Only question mark is if committee puts Stetson in first 4 rather than MSU. But sure seems at the bottom of the pile, the committee ONLY use Net ranking.

CHecked out going to Dayton. Nothing good about it. Basically have to fly in day before; spend $700 to $1,000 on ticket. spend two nights at hotel; miss three days of work. Even in my best scenario, I can't do that on 1 day's notice. bummer

[catatac]

I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.

I'm trying to figure this out but to me it really looks like there isn't a scenario left that would move the Cats out of the play-in game? Most of the lower ranked conference tournaments are finished and those 2 conferences are already predicted be play-in games no matter the champion?

You may be right, I'm not really up to speed on how it all works. I still don't know why 12 seeds have to do a play in game. All that said, my opinion is that I would strongly prefer a play in game if the other option is automatically getting the 16 seed so we at least have a glimmer of hope to get a win..... although the 16 over 1 has actually now happened twice, including last year. Can you imagine?

[Camo_Cat]

[MinnesotaBobcat]

I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.

I'm trying to figure this out but to me it really looks like there isn't a scenario left that would move the Cats out of the play-in game? Most of the lower ranked conference tournaments are finished and those 2 conferences are already predicted be play-in games no matter the champion?

I don’t think NET rankings are the only factor in determining seeds. Stetson is 207, and the Bobcats are 208. but the Big Sky is ranked 21 in the conference rankings, while the ASUN (Stetson’s conference) is 25.

Historically the Big Sky have always slid into the 14 seed, and there are a few times they’re slid to 15. I think there is a te
Ore chance the Bobcats get 15, but I have a hunch they’ll get one of the 16 seeds that isn’t a play-in game based on conference ranking and historical seeding.

Then again, a first four game would be nice in terms of National exposure in prime time, and a much more winnable game that would bring millions into the conference.

[MSU01]

I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.

I'm trying to figure this out but to me it really looks like there isn't a scenario left that would move the Cats out of the play-in game? Most of the lower ranked conference tournaments are finished and those 2 conferences are already predicted be play-in games no matter the champion?

It seems to me that there are currently five legitimate candidates to be in the First Four. Ranked in order from most likely to be a First Four team (in my judgment) to least likely, these are:

Wagner (16-15 Record, NET 289)
SWAC Champion - #1 seed is Grambling (18-14 Record, NET 288)
MSU (17-17 Record, NET 209)
MEAC Champion - #1 seed is Norfolk State (22-10 Record, NET 210)
Stetson (22-12 Record, NET 207)

My guess here would be that the First Four teams will very likely be Wagner, the SWAC champion, MSU, and either the MEAC champion or Stetson. Three of the teams including MSU are extremely close in the NET rankings but I think MSU will be hurt by its significantly worse overall record compared to Stetson and Norfolk State if they win the MEAC.
 
Aside from the MEAC and SWAC champions, the only two teams I could find who are still alive in their conference tournaments and could be in the First Four if they win are Middle Tennessee in Conference USA (14-18 record, NET 285) and Brown in the Ivy League (12-17 record, NET 192). If either of those teams win their tournament, then perhaps they would go into the First Four and MSU would have a better chance of being a non-First Four 16 seed.

[Camo_Cat]

I still believe that given the Big Sky's conference ranking, and the fact that MSU is now becoming a perennial participant, the bracketeers will put MSU into the main tourney without being in one of the play-in games. Just a gut feeling....

[grizzh8r]

I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.

I'm trying to figure this out but to me it really looks like there isn't a scenario left that would move the Cats out of the play-in game? Most of the lower ranked conference tournaments are finished and those 2 conferences are already predicted be play-in games no matter the champion?

Sure seems like based on Net Ranking as of this morning, hard to see Cats missing the Play-In game. MSU - 209; Norfolk St -210; Stetson - 207; Wagner - 289; Grambling - 289. Without really any other info I think four lowest seeds are Grambling, Wagner, Norfolk St and MSU. Even if Grambling loses, the winner of the SWAC will be in the play-in game. Same with Norfolk State - Everyone is worse. Only question mark is if committee puts Stetson in first 4 rather than MSU. But sure seems at the bottom of the pile, the committee ONLY use Net ranking.

CHecked out going to Dayton. Nothing good about it. Basically have to fly in day before; spend $700 to $1,000 on ticket. spend two nights at hotel; miss three days of work. Even in my best scenario, I can't do that on 1 day's notice. bummer

@Catprint check out flying into Cincinnati instead, it's probably much cheaper. It's a quick drive to Dayton. Cincy is a fun town. And if you go to Dayton, don't miss going to the Air Force Air and Space Museum, it's one of the best in the country. Truly amazing what they have packed into that place...

[Au Blue]

Somebody pass the hat for Kent