Bracketology

Discuss anything and everything relating to Bobcat Basketball here.

Moderators: kmax, SonomaCat, rtb

Bobcatstan
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:23 am

Bracketology

Post by Bobcatstan » Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:48 pm

ESPN has lady cats as 14 seed playing UCLA.



TomCat88
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 13711
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:16 am
Location: An endless run of moguls

Re: Bracketology

Post by TomCat88 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:30 pm

That's pretty tough. UCLA is #8 in the nation and third in the PAC-12, which is probably the top conference in the country. They're battle tested. One of six PAC-12 teams ranked in the top 25.


MSU - 14 team National Champions (most recent 2011); 52 individual National Champions (most recent 2017).
toM StUber

aucat
Honorable Mention All-BobcatNation
Posts: 803
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 1:13 am

Re: Bracketology

Post by aucat » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:02 am

Someone earlier said that if we had only prevailed in two or three of those early tough games, we might be looking
at a better seed, maybe as high as 12. I'm afraid a game with UCLA would rate as "unwinnable" unless you get a "miracle on ice," uh,
I mean "Miracle on the hardwood."



MSU01
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4075
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 5:21 pm

Re: Bracketology

Post by MSU01 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:45 am

It's tough to predict what will happen if MSU can win out. A good comparison is the Northern Colorado team from 2017-18 that finished with the same 23-6 regular season record that MSU will have if it sweeps the final two games. The UNC team ended up with a 10 seed, but the major difference is that they had two non-conference wins over major conference schools (DePaul and LSU) that went to the NCAA Tourney as a 5 and 6 seed respectively. MSU just doesn't have that signature non-conference win to point to as a justification for a higher seed than 13 or 14.


Go Bobcats! 24-17 31-23 29-25 48-14

Rich K
BobcatNation Hall of Famer
Posts: 3484
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:40 pm
Location: Cody WY

Re: Bracketology

Post by Rich K » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:22 pm

This bracket shows the ladies Bobcats as a 14 seed playing Gonzaga (3) in Spokane.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-bask ... acketology

While it would be a very tough draw, a game in Spokane would be as close to home as we'd get.


Image

User avatar
Bobcat4Ever
2nd Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1206
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 6:26 pm
Location: Nevada

Re: Bracketology

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:28 pm

aucat wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:02 am
Someone earlier said that if we had only prevailed in two or three of those early tough games, we might be looking
at a better seed, maybe as high as 12. I'm afraid a game with UCLA would rate as "unwinnable" unless you get a "miracle on ice," uh,
I mean "Miracle on the hardwood."
We played UCLA at Pauley in a pre-conference game during the Rachel Semansky era and took the ranked Bruins to the end. Opened the score at the end with free throws. We played very well!

But, the #8 team, divided by 4 should be a #2 seed. This would be a lousy draw.



User avatar
Bobcat4Ever
2nd Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1206
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 6:26 pm
Location: Nevada

Re: Bracketology

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:31 pm

Rich K wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:22 pm
This bracket shows the ladies Bobcats as a 14 seed playing Gonzaga (3) in Spokane.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-bask ... acketology

While it would be a very tough draw, a game in Spokane would be as close to home as we'd get.
I hate rematches in the same season. I just do. Give us new meat. Gonzaga (15 points) is the only team to score a decisive win on the Bobcats all season.



rivercat
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:26 am
Location: Bozeman

Re: Bracketology

Post by rivercat » Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:00 pm

Bobcat4Ever wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:31 pm
Rich K wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:22 pm
This bracket shows the ladies Bobcats as a 14 seed playing Gonzaga (3) in Spokane.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-bask ... acketology

While it would be a very tough draw, a game in Spokane would be as close to home as we'd get.
I hate rematches in the same season. I just do. Give us new meat. Gonzaga (15 points) is the only team to score a decisive win on the Bobcats all season.
That game the Lady Cats shot 0-13 from 3 pt. Had they shot their season average of 0.354, the game would have a been a 1 pt loss 69-70. But there is more than just unscored points when shooting 0-13. Gonzaga could sag down on defense because they didn't have to respect the 3 making scoring in the paint much harder. And the Lady Cats offense stalled repeatedly in that game because the players were afraid of shooting long range.

Now I don't think Gonzaga played their best game, but that one was definitely winnable on that night.


"...get in 21 personnel and pound people and take their souls and have fun doing that..." coach Choate

User avatar
BelgradeBobcat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6559
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 9:52 pm
Location: Belgrade, Montana

Re: Bracketology

Post by BelgradeBobcat » Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:06 pm

Gonzaga seems plausible...IF we get that far.
What about Big Sky bracketology? Our first game will be against the winner of Sac State and probably Portland State...or maybe Northern Colorado? PSU isn't a gimme but we should win that one. The semi-final is shaking out to quite possibly be Cat-griz III. Either them or NAU. That will be interesting.



aucat
Honorable Mention All-BobcatNation
Posts: 803
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 1:13 am

Re: Bracketology

Post by aucat » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:06 pm

I agree with the above comment about Gonzaga. We played one of our worst games, at least in terms of shooting, though I'm sure Gonzaga had something to do with that. However, I was at the game and I thought we played pretty even with them. In other words, the score was not indicative of how the game went. I would rather play Gonzaga in Spokane than UCLA



MSU01
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4075
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 5:21 pm

Re: Bracketology

Post by MSU01 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:39 pm

Remember that while it isn't a hard and fast rule, there is a guideline the committee uses to avoid regular season rematches in the first round if possible. That would seem to make a Gonzaga matchup less likely unless there's no other reasonable option.


Go Bobcats! 24-17 31-23 29-25 48-14

rivercat
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:26 am
Location: Bozeman

Re: Bracketology

Post by rivercat » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:52 pm

MSU will climb up from #20 in the mid-major poll today due to higher ranked teams having some bad losses. Maybe #16 or #17 is my guess. I don't know what weight this poll will have when the bracket is filled out but it can't hurt.


"...get in 21 personnel and pound people and take their souls and have fun doing that..." coach Choate

rivercat
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:26 am
Location: Bozeman

Re: Bracketology

Post by rivercat » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:25 pm

rivercat wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:52 pm
MSU will climb up from #20 in the mid-major poll today due to higher ranked teams having some bad losses. Maybe #16 or #17 is my guess. I don't know what weight this poll will have when the bracket is filled out but it can't hurt.
I was too optimistic in my guess. Lady Cats are #18 in the most recent mid-major poll that came out today. Still, headed in the right direction.


"...get in 21 personnel and pound people and take their souls and have fun doing that..." coach Choate

User avatar
kennethnoisewater
1st Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1907
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:41 pm
Location: Bigfork, MT

Re: Bracketology

Post by kennethnoisewater » Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:28 pm

I was just thinking back to November/December, and thinking this team had taken a step back (admittedly I was only looking at scores/results). The Cats started 2-5 (4-5 if you count wins over Carroll and Northern), and I remember thinking the men would have the better season because of the way they started. As we all know, a one-point loss to Idaho is the only blemish in what would have been a 19-0 run after Puerto Rico. I would have never guessed we'd be having this conversation after the way things got started. What a run--keep it going Cats!


Image

User avatar
Darth Yoda
2nd Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1124
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:47 pm

Re: Bracketology

Post by Darth Yoda » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:48 am

With a win tonight, the Cat teams will be at a combined 39 wins. Has Montana State ever had 40 combined wins in the regular season before?



Ilikecats
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 111
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:50 pm
Location: Butte

Re: Bracketology

Post by Ilikecats » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:12 pm

kennethnoisewater wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:28 pm
I was just thinking back to November/December, and thinking this team had taken a step back (admittedly I was only looking at scores/results). The Cats started 2-5 (4-5 if you count wins over Carroll and Northern), and I remember thinking the men would have the better season because of the way they started. As we all know, a one-point loss to Idaho is the only blemish in what would have been a 19-0 run after Puerto Rico. I would have never guessed we'd be having this conversation after the way things got started. What a run--keep it going Cats!
Hopefully you’re kidding! They were playing top teams and playing well. Yes they lost, but it’s part of the reasons we’re playing well today! We always had a top notch team this year and my only surprise is they didn’t beat Minnesota! Played tremendously well against Texas A&M. There’s still lots of things to achieve, but this is the top WBB team at MSU of all time. They can have an off game and win by 20 points. I like that players like Freije, Smith and Braxton play for the team. I know that Freije and Smith could get better stats and Blair could start somewhere instead of being our top reserve. This team is all about the Win and that’s what makes them elite. That and a Tasmanian devil point guard 😂! This team makes the game fun again!



User avatar
kennethnoisewater
1st Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1907
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:41 pm
Location: Bigfork, MT

Re: Bracketology

Post by kennethnoisewater » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:40 pm

Ilikecats wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:12 pm
kennethnoisewater wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:28 pm
I was just thinking back to November/December, and thinking this team had taken a step back (admittedly I was only looking at scores/results). The Cats started 2-5 (4-5 if you count wins over Carroll and Northern), and I remember thinking the men would have the better season because of the way they started. As we all know, a one-point loss to Idaho is the only blemish in what would have been a 19-0 run after Puerto Rico. I would have never guessed we'd be having this conversation after the way things got started. What a run--keep it going Cats!
Hopefully you’re kidding! They were playing top teams and playing well. Yes they lost, but it’s part of the reasons we’re playing well today! We always had a top notch team this year and my only surprise is they didn’t beat Minnesota! Played tremendously well against Texas A&M. There’s still lots of things to achieve, but this is the top WBB team at MSU of all time. They can have an off game and win by 20 points. I like that players like Freije, Smith and Braxton play for the team. I know that Freije and Smith could get better stats and Blair could start somewhere instead of being our top reserve. This team is all about the Win and that’s what makes them elite. That and a Tasmanian devil point guard 😂! This team makes the game fun again!
No I'm not kidding! You don't have to sell me on how good this team is now. And like I said, I was only looking at scores, and I've seen enough close losses to good teams to know that doesn't always mean you're very good. But from a very casual fan standpoint, 2-5 does not APPEAR to be really strong. So I'm admitting I was wrong--you don't need to berate me about being an idiot back in November/December!


Image

rivercat
BobcatNation Letterman
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:26 am
Location: Bozeman

Re: Bracketology

Post by rivercat » Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:06 pm

So I decided spending the last of my Friday afternoon doing a little research. There are 32 conferences that get an auto bid into the NCAA tournament. Reading some information on how teams are seeded, it seems like the RPI is primarily used for the women. I found each conference's leading team in the RPI. As of right now, there are 11 conferences whose best team is behind the Lady Cats which currently sit at 66 in RPI rank.

If the #16 seeds are auto bid teams with the 4 lowest RPI ratings, the #15 seeds are the next 4 lowest auto bid teams, then the Lady Cats would be in the group of #14 seeded auto bids. But, as a reference earlier, they are currently sitting at better that 11 auto bids. If they pass one more auto bid team, they would jump to the group of #13 seeds.

I'm a novice looking at this but this seems like the way it goes. The RPI updates several times daily and it is possible to go up or down even if a team doesn't play because of outcomes of other games. If the Lady Cats stay the course (winning) and another higher ranked auto bid stumbles (this would have to be Fresno State most likely because they currently sit at #62 and currently are the predicted MWC auto bid team) then a 13 seed seems likely.


"...get in 21 personnel and pound people and take their souls and have fun doing that..." coach Choate

wapiti
BobcatNation Team Captain
Posts: 357
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:04 am

Re: Bracketology

Post by wapiti » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:14 am

How are the 2nd round match ups done in the Big Sky tourney?

Does the #1 seed get the lowest remaining seed?
#2 seed gets 2nd lowest remaining?
# 3 gets 3rd lowest remaining?

or do they get the winner of a particular game?



User avatar
Darth Yoda
2nd Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1124
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:47 pm

Re: Bracketology

Post by Darth Yoda » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:37 am

I believe WBB is lining up with GU in a 3-14 match up in Spokane. Of the possibilities, I think this would be a best scenario even considering potential 4-13 match ups. I doubt that we get to the 12 unless there's total calamity in several conference tournaments, but there could be some nice match ups if that materializes. I doubt it, but who knows. With a little help and a dominating 3 games in Boise, it just might be enough.



Post Reply