Playoff hypothetical

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Sun Nov 12, 2006 12:04 pm

For all the 7-4 naysayers out there, this is the year a 7-4 team gets in, and if the right combination of outcomes happens this upcoming Saturday, the committee is going to have their hands full.

Playoff Projection with one week to play(if MSU loses to the Griz)
* Maine beats New Hampshire, JMU beats Towson, Tenn Martin wins, Illinois St. beats UNI
Char. Southern beats Coastal Carolina, Lehigh beats Lafayette, Howard beats Deleware St.
(The two most unlikely predictions from above are Char. Southern beating Coastal, and Howard
beating Deleware St., so MSU needs to root for those two upsets next Saturday)

That leaves the committee with choosing the last 4 at-large spots from the following 11 teams(listed in estimated gpi ranking):
Portland St 7-4
San Diego 10-0 I think the committee will put San Diego in
Maine 7-4 Maine is in, as the 3rd A-10 team, with a head to head win over New Hampshire
New Hampshire 7-4 Committee will not put 4 A-10 teams in
Cal Poly 7-4 Losing 3 of last 5 games will hurt Poly's chances
Montana St 7-4
Wofford 7-4 So-Con is down this year, so they won't get 3 teams in
E. Illinois 8-4 Just too low on the GPI list
Towson 7-4 Just too low on the GPI list
Sam Houston 7-4 Just too low on the GPI list
Holly Cross 7-4 Just too low on the GPI list

The final two spots should come down to PSU, MSU, New Hampshire and Cal Poly. I accually like the argument that PSU will get in, and they can't put them in without MSU, since MSU beat them head to head. I would say MSU's chances of making the field at 7-4 are still alive.

GPI(est) TeamConferenceOverall Rec.Conf. RecSPN Poll(est Attendance
1MassachusettsA-10 10-1 8-0 3 9353
2Appalachian St.Southern 10-1 7-0 1 17917
3Montana Big Sky 10-1 8-0 2 22479
4Youngstown St.Gateway 9-2 6-1 4 14544
6Illinois St. Gateway 9-2 6-1 6 9084
7James Madison A-10 9-2 7-1 7 13525
8Southern Ill. Gateway 8-3 4-3 8 9581
9Portland St. Big Sky 7-4 6-2 11 6597
10San Diego Pioneer 10-0 7-0 9 3216
11Furman Southern 8-3 6-1 10 11052
12Tenn. Martin Ohio Valley9-2 6-1 12 3865
13Maine A-10 7-4 6-2 13 5415
14New Hampshire A-10 7-4 4-4 14 7284
15Hampton MEAC 10-1 7-1 15 8142
16Cal Poly Great West 7-4 2-2 16 6959
17Montana State Big Sky 7-4 6-2 17 13710
18Wofford Southern 7-4 5-2 18 6674
19E. Illinois Ohio Valle8-4 7-1 19 6182
20Towson A-10 7-4 4-4 20 5308
25Lehigh Patriot 7-4 6-0 28 10656
30Sam Houston Southland 7-4 5-1 27 9269
31McNeese St Southland 7-4 5-1 26 7896
32Northern Iowa Gateway 6-5 4-3 25 10625
40Coastal Carolina Big South 8-3 4-1 22 7327
49Delaware St MEAC 8-3 6-2 30 2864
52Charl. So. Big South 10-1 4-1 31 1849
53Holy Cross Patriot 7-4 4-2 32 7051
65Lafayette Patriot 5-6 4-2 NR 5563
69Tenn. St. Ohio Valley 6-5 5-2 NR 15023

Auto bid
at-large playoff spot

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Sun Nov 12, 2006 12:11 pm

Cal Poly is out. Even with a win next Sat. against Savannah St. they'll only have 6 D-I wins. Their other win is against D-II Ft. Lewis which doesn't count in playoff eligibility.

anacondagriz · Post by **anacondagriz** » Sun Nov 12, 2006 4:10 pm

GOKATS wrote:Cal Poly is out. Even with a win next Sat. against Savannah St. they'll only have 6 D-I wins. Their other win is against D-II Ft. Lewis which doesn't count in playoff eligibility.

Same goes for Sam Houson St. They must win, coupled w/a McNeese St. loss to win the Southland autobid.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Sun Nov 12, 2006 6:08 pm

GoKats,

While I agree that Cal Poly's lack of 7 div I wins hurts them, it doesn't exlude them entirely.

Straight from the NCAA manual:

3. The won/loss record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team's strength of schedule; however, less than 7 Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected.

While I agree that Cal Poly is probably out, it is not due to any NCAA rule. I just think this will be a wild year for the selection committee, should a few key teams lose this next weekend. If so, I predict more than one 7-4 team getting in. Start with the propoganda, so the Cats can be one of them should we falter this weekend. However, I truly hope we just win and finish 8-3.

94VegasCat · Post by **94VegasCat** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 1:03 pm

If you look at those numbers for the average attendence, MSU would be around #5 of those listed.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:05 pm

Yes, we are in good shape attendance wise. Should we win this weekend, we very well could have a home game. Higher attendance figures definitely gives the Athletic Department confidence in putting together a high bid.

On a side note, I really hope the committee doesn't "let" San Diego in. In a weird scenario, I could see San Diego going to Missoula if they make the playoffs, then we could very well be bidding gainst McNeese(should they win the SLC auto) to see where the game is played? And McNeese's numbers for attendance are usually very strong.

Post by **kmax** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:15 pm

old wise one wrote:Yes, we are in good shape attendance wise. Should we win this weekend, we very well could have a home game. Higher attendance figures definitely gives the Athletic Department confidence in putting together a high bid.

On a side note, I really hope the committee doesn't "let" San Diego in. In a weird scenario, I could see San Diego going to Missoula if they make the playoffs, then we could very well be bidding gainst McNeese(should they win the SLC auto) to see where the game is played? And McNeese's numbers for attendance are usually very strong.

Not this year they aren't. McNeese is averaging 10,690 per game in attendance to MSU's 13,314 per game.

HelenaCat95 · Post by **HelenaCat95** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:23 pm

Does the attendance really matter? Or is it simply dollars (which of course would be supplied by attendance)?

Hypothetically, could one school with an average attendance of 1,000 submit a bid with a higher dollar figure, and therefore get the Home Game, over a school with an average attendance of 14,000?

Post by **kmax** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:29 pm

HelenaCat95 wrote:Does the attendance really matter? Or is it simply dollars (which of course would be supplied by attendance)?

Hypothetically, could one school with an average attendance of 1,000 submit a bid with a higher dollar figure, and therefore get the Home Game, over a school with an average attendance of 14,000?

I think they could(and I could be wrong), but I believe then the school that overbid would have to pay any overage between tickets sold and the bid amount out of their own pocket to cover the bid they put in to the NCAA.

94VegasCat · Post by **94VegasCat** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:32 pm

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to draw some southern team in to Bozeman and snow like a bugger. Oh wait, that is the um way......

I would like to see McNeese come to Bozeman for some payback from a few years ago.

HelenaCat95 · Post by **HelenaCat95** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:36 pm

kmax wrote:
HelenaCat95 wrote:Does the attendance really matter? Or is it simply dollars (which of course would be supplied by attendance)?

Hypothetically, could one school with an average attendance of 1,000 submit a bid with a higher dollar figure, and therefore get the Home Game, over a school with an average attendance of 14,000?
I think they could(and I could be wrong), but I believe then the school that overbid would have to pay any overage between tickets sold and the bid amount out of their own pocket to cover the bid they put in to the NCAA.

So to continue the hypothetical, one booster could cover the $50,000-$70,000 bid for a school, and then they wouldn't have to worry about the attendance numbers.

Post by **kmax** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:41 pm

HelenaCat95 wrote:
kmax wrote:
HelenaCat95 wrote:Does the attendance really matter? Or is it simply dollars (which of course would be supplied by attendance)?

Hypothetically, could one school with an average attendance of 1,000 submit a bid with a higher dollar figure, and therefore get the Home Game, over a school with an average attendance of 14,000?
I think they could(and I could be wrong), but I believe then the school that overbid would have to pay any overage between tickets sold and the bid amount out of their own pocket to cover the bid they put in to the NCAA.
So to continue the hypothetical, one booster could cover the $50,000-$70,000 bid for a school, and then they wouldn't have to worry about the attendance numbers.

Like I said, I could be very wrong, but that is the way I have always understood it.

HelenaCat95 · Post by **HelenaCat95** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:45 pm

kmax wrote:
HelenaCat95 wrote:
kmax wrote:
HelenaCat95 wrote:Does the attendance really matter? Or is it simply dollars (which of course would be supplied by attendance)?

Hypothetically, could one school with an average attendance of 1,000 submit a bid with a higher dollar figure, and therefore get the Home Game, over a school with an average attendance of 14,000?
I think they could(and I could be wrong), but I believe then the school that overbid would have to pay any overage between tickets sold and the bid amount out of their own pocket to cover the bid they put in to the NCAA.
So to continue the hypothetical, one booster could cover the $50,000-$70,000 bid for a school, and then they wouldn't have to worry about the attendance numbers.
Like I said, I could be very wrong, but that is the way I have always understood it.

Alright. Let's all chip in if we win, and we can call it the Bobcatnation.com Bowl.

Egg Salad · Post by **Egg Salad** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:49 pm

I've got four....almost five dollars.

HelenaCat95 · Post by **HelenaCat95** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 3:50 pm

Egg Salad wrote:I've got four....almost five dollars.

Look out Tostito's Fiesta Bowl. We're on our way.

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 5:14 pm

This explains it all in language an 8 yr. old could understand.

Site Determination. With regard to first-round, quarterfinal and semifinal sites, in addition to the criteria listed in Bylaw 31.1.3, the NCAA Division I-AA Football Committee shall consider the following additional criteria when selecting playoff sites:
a. Prospective host institutions must submit the following minimum financial guarantees, which shall be 75 percent of the estimated net receipts as submitted on the proposed budget:
First round—$30,000
Quarterfinal—$40,000
Semifinal—$50,000

b. If the minimum financial guarantees are met, the committee will award the playoff sites to the top four seeded teams.

c. When determining host institutions for playoff games when both teams are unseeded, criteria shall apply as follows: (1) quality of facility, (2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, (3) attendance history and potential, (4) team’s performance (i.e., conference place finish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents), and (5) student-athlete well-being (e.g., travel, missed class time).

d. If a quarterfinal or semifinal playoff site is not available due to the fact the institutions involved did not submit a proposed budget, the committee will contact the institutions and offer the opportunity to submit a bid at the current round’s minimum financial guarantee level. If seeded teams are not involved, the committee will determine the host institutions by applying the championship site-selection criteria in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1.
e. If no institution is willing to submit a proposed budget at the current level, the previous round’s minimum financial guarantee will be offered. If seeded teams are not involved, the committee will determine the host institutions by applying the championship site-selection criteria in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1.
f. The committee will consider previous crowd-control measures and crowd behavior of the prospective host institution.

Division I Football Championship Information
Important Dates
October 25—Championship information and forms mailed from NCAA national office to prospective championship participants.
November 10—Prospective host institutions return proposed budget to national office.
November 19—Final selections and announcement of bracket during televised announcement at approximately 1 p.m. (Eastern time) on ESPNews.
November 25—First-round games.
December 2—Quarterfinal games.
December 8 and 9—Semifinal games.
December 15—Championship game, W. Max Finley Stadium/Davenport Field, Chattanooga, Tennessee.

game coaches/players

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 5:46 pm

94VegasCat wrote:I would like to see McNeese come to Bozeman for some payback from a few years ago.

Yeah, that would be nice. That McNeese team went on to be the national runner up. Up to that point, we were one of only two teams they beat by a touchdown or less, not counting thier loss to Nebraska (they beat the Griz the next week 24-20). Had we not had those key injuries in that game, we might have won (and Zack Wolf might have been our starting center this year...). Man that 2002 Bobcat Defense was gooooood.

WyomingGrizFan · Post by **WyomingGrizFan** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 12:42 am

I would like to see McNeese come to Bozeman for some payback from a few years ago.

I would much rather see McNeese St. (that is, if anyone wants to really win that conference of theirs this year) come to Missoula for some payback from a few years ago. You Bobcats can go to Appalachian St. if you make it. LOL

WyomingGrizFan · Post by **WyomingGrizFan** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:24 am

December 15—Championship game, W. Max Finley Stadium/Davenport Field, Chattanooga, Tennessee.

That being the case then this year would be the last in calling the NC winner the I-AA champion, since the different appellation would be effective 22 Dec 06 in changing the designation to Division One Subdivision etc. etc. etc. According to the 2006 I-AA.org Football Yearbook.

Go Griz!!!

Cat in NC · Post by **Cat in NC** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 7:49 am

WyomingGrizFan wrote:
I would like to see McNeese come to Bozeman for some payback from a few years ago.
I would much rather see McNeese St. (that is, if anyone wants to really win that conference of theirs this year) come to Missoula for some payback from a few years ago. You Bobcats can go to Appalachian St. if you make it. LOL

From a "seeing the Cats" point of view, nothing would make me happier. I'd love to be able to watch the boys play without the joy of spending 8 hours on planes. However, I don't think there's and chance that the Cats travel to Boone (unless it's in the quarters or semis).

I look into my crystal ball and see the Griz hosting the Torreros in the first round. (Note: I'm not happy about it, as I don't think that USD should get in. Just a prediction...)