Who's got what it takes?

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Eastcoastgriz
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Who's got what it takes?

Post by Eastcoastgriz » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:25 pm

Big Sky Conference Standings
Montana 3-0 6-1
mt state 3-0 4-2
Eastern 3-1 4-3
Northern 2-1 3-3

Remaining Games
Montana
Off 10-23
@Portland 10-30
Northern 11-06
Sac State 11-13
mt state 11-20

mt state
South DU 10-23
@Northern 10-30
@ Sac State 11-06
Eastern Wa 11-13
@Montana 11-20

Eastern Wa
@Weber 10-23
Sac State 10-30
Cal Poly 11-06
@mt state 11-13

Northern Az
Portland 10-23
mt state 10-30
@Montana 11-06
@ISU 11-13
Northern IA 11-20

Lose one more game and both Eastern WA and Northern AZ will not see any post season play. Lose two more and mt state stays home. Montana could lose two of their last four and still get invited to the dance. (Conference champ gets auto bid and could be the exception)

Northern AZ has two tough road games (MT and ISU) and one tough home game (msu). Northern will be lucky to go 2-3 in their final 5 games.

Eastern WA has two easier conference games in Weber and Sac St. Cal Poly will be tough as will mt state. Eastern finishes out 3 -1, losing to Cal Poly.

mt state has the hardest remaining schedule. Northern and Montana on the road, South Dakota and Eastern at home. mt state finishes out 3-2 Beating SD, Sac State and one of Mt, Northern or Eastern

Montana may have the easiest remaining schedule as 3 of the last 4 games at home. Griz finish out 3-1 beating Portland, Sac St and one of Northern AZ or mt state.

This leaves a two way tie for the conference championship between Montana and Eastern WA.

Montana gets only playoff bids. :D



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94VegasCat
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Post by 94VegasCat » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:40 pm

wow, way to break it down.
I think that um has 3 tough ones, MSU has 4 tough ones, ewu has 1 tough one, and nau has a 5 game toughy coming up.

:cry: um loses on the road to psu and at home v the CATS :cry:
:D MSU continues to rise and runs the table :P
:cry: ewu loses in Bozeman, ending up with 2 losses and done :cry:
:cry: nau may get one, but loses out by losing to both MT schools. :cry:

ONLY MY OPINION. That's how I want it to work out. :D
Last edited by 94VegasCat on Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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CARDIAC_CATS
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Post by CARDIAC_CATS » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:11 am

It all comes down to the EWU an UM games for the CATS. We need one of those games I think to make the playoffs.



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Post by WYCAT » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:17 am

Assuming we take care of business this weekend and at Sac. St. I think we really need to win 2 of the other 3 (@NAU, @UM, and vs. EWU) to get into the playoffs. That Cal Poly loss is looming larger each week isn't it?



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Post by CARDIAC_CATS » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:32 am

WYCAT wrote:Assuming we take care of business this weekend and at Sac. St. I think we really need to win 2 of the other 3 (@NAU, @UM, and vs. EWU) to get into the playoffs. That Cal Poly loss is looming larger each week isn't it?
We need Cal Poly to take down EWU and give them 4 losses and then we beat EWU to knock them out of the picture either way for 1st or 2nd. We win 2 out of the 3 we should definately be in the playoff picture for sure I would think.



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Cat Pride
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Post by Cat Pride » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:42 am

I think the Cats need to go 5-0 or 4-1 to be a lock for the playoffs. A 4-1 finish gives us an 8-3 record and 6-1 conference record. That is most likely good enough to win conference, but if not, its definitely good enough to get us an at large bid. I would think the Cats are on the verge of a home field playoff game at 8-3 even if they dont win conference.

Problem is, if the Cats go 7-4 and dont win conference, I dont see them making playoffs.

If MSU runs the table on the remainder of the season to finish 9-2 with their only losses coming to the current #6 team in the county and a D-IA team, I'd think MSU would host the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.



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kmax
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Post by kmax » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:55 am

Four loss teams will NOT make the playoffs unless they happen to win their conference and get an autobid. If we can run the table, obviously we are in very good position and will be in and hosting. However, going 4-1 to finish the season and not winning the Sky puts us on the bubble in my opinion. If we were in the position of the Griz with a high ranking already I would say 4-1 would be good enough as you wouldn't slide very far. However, we are currently around mid twenties in the polls and depending on who the loss was to, may not get much higher with a 4-1 finish.

There are one or two 3 loss teams that get snubbed every year, with our combination of rankings and less than impressive wins, I fear that could be the Cats if they finish 8-3. Another thought that I had, I think that reputation means something to playoff committees, even if just as a tie breaker as I think they give the nod to perenial powers (UM, GSU, etc.) over similar teams if only one could go. Could the reverse work against the Cats this year? What I mean is if we are on the buble with several other teams, could the committee look at the fact that the Cats snuck in the last two years and didn't move on and use that against us? Just a thought and I don't know if it would work that way but it seems very plausible that it could sneak into the thinking of the selection committee.

Anyway, bottom line is we need them all in my opinion so let's take this one at a time and take care of business. First up, the bunnies!!!!!


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Post by jagur1 » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:00 am

Kmart is right. This is just the type of thread that an a hole like me would bring up next week if you don't take care of business this weekend.


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Cat Pride
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Post by Cat Pride » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:11 am

kmax wrote:let's take this one at a time and take care of business. First up, the bunnies!!!!!
This is exactly how all Bobcat fans, players, coaches should be looking at the remainder of the season. We take things one game at a time, and I like our chances. Uphill battle for sure, but I like our chances. Especially with the way the team seems to be coming together. Joe Hirst will be playing this weekend, Kory Austin could be back soon, people are getting healthier which is weird.

One thing I have learned about this team over the last 2.5 seasons....NEVER underestimate what Travis Lulay and gang can do.

But like you said kmax, bring on So-Dak and lets take care of the business that is in front of us first.



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Post by CARDIAC_CATS » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:18 am

Cat Pride wrote:
kmax wrote:let's take this one at a time and take care of business. First up, the bunnies!!!!!
This is exactly how all Bobcat fans, players, coaches should be looking at the remainder of the season. We take things one game at a time, and I like our chances. Uphill battle for sure, but I like our chances. Especially with the way the team seems to be coming together. Joe Hirst will be playing this weekend, Kory Austin could be back soon, people are getting healthier which is weird.

One thing I have learned about this team over the last 2.5 seasons....NEVER underestimate what Travis Lulay and gang can do.

But like you said kmax, bring on So-Dak and lets take care of the business that is in front of us first.
LETS GET THOSE JACKRABBITS!



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kmax
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Post by kmax » Wed Oct 20, 2004 11:32 am



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Post by El_Gato » Wed Oct 20, 2004 11:46 am

Well stated by all.

8-3 gets us in even if we are NOT BSC champs because the NCAA will consider us 8-2 (they've stated in the past an L to a D1 school doesn't hurt you).

9-2; goes without saying, we're 3 time BSC champs, unbeaten in our league & would no doubt host at least 2 games...

7-4; no matter WHO the losses are to, we're not in UNLESS we're BSC champs again. If that happens, we'll undoubtedly be #16 and (sing it, Willy) "on the road again..." Even if we lost this weekend and only 1 conference game, there's no way they will give an at-large invite to a team at 7-4.


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Eastcoastgriz
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Post by Eastcoastgriz » Sun Oct 24, 2004 5:43 pm

Was Last Week
Big Sky Conference Standings
Montana 3-0 6-1
mt state 3-0 4-2
Eastern 3-1 4-3
Northern 2-1 3-3

Now
Big Sky Conference Standings
Montana 3-0 6-1
mt state 3-0 5-2
Eastern 4-1 5-3
Northern 3-1 4-3

Need one more week before we will see any separation on who is moving up and who is moving out.

Either Eastern or Northern lose, no real chance to win the conference and no chance for an at large bid to the big dance. (4 loses) Will be interesting to where we are this time next Sunday.
Last edited by Eastcoastgriz on Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:46 am, edited 2 times in total.



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