Sagarin Ratings Return

[ZifCat52]

As you know, the Sagarin Ratings can be used to try to predict the winners of each football game for the coming season. A few years ago I posted the predictions for the Basketball Season, here are the ones for this year's football season. All the games are projected for the entire year and each week I will publish that week's individual game predictions and the summary of the predictions for the end of the season. The first one is largely based on last year's results, I would gues that as the next 3-4 weeks go by, the accuracy should increase as this year's results are factored into the model.

This week's game predictions:

Thursday Games

Arizona State over NAU
Oregon State over EWU
Boise State over Sac St

Saturday Games

Colorado over MSU
Iowa over UM
Colorado State over WSU
New Mexico over PSU
UNLV over ISU
and in the only non 1A game for the Big Sky, UC Davis over Northern Colorado (UNC) in Greely.

The predicted final Win/Loss totals are as follows:

Eastern Washington: 9-2 Overall, 8-0 Big Sky
Montana: 9-2 Overall, 7-1 Big Sky
Montana State 8-3: Overall, 6-2 Big Sky
Portland State: 5-6 Overall, 5-3 Big Sky (All 1A non-conference)
Idaho State: 4-7 Overall, 3-5 Big Sky
Northern Colorado: 3-8 Overall, 3-5 Big Sky
Northern Arizona: 3-8 Overall, 2-6 Big Sky
Weber State: 3-8 Overall, 2-6 Big Sky
Sacramento State: 0-11 Overall, 0-8 Big Sky

I don't necessarily agree with these predictions, personally I see Sac St and UNC actually being reversed from these projections, though this week's games should all be right on becasue of nearly all being 1A games. As the season progresses it will be interesting to see how accurate these are, I will publish the ongoing % correct each week. I only look at win and loss projections, not point spreads. I will also update the projections each week based on actual results and the new projections for the remainder of the games. I hope these are fun for everyone. Have a great year watching college football in the Big Sky.