The Bobcat Nation

I've seen it several places here and I feel like its totally false. The narrative that the Cats need the griz highly ranked when they play them in terms of playoff seeds. So lets break it down:

The contenders for home playoff seeds throughout:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. Tarleton
4. UM
5. MSU
6. SIU
7. UC Davis

These are the only teams that have a realistic possibility to get to a top 2 seed. Any other team won't have the resume or conference strength to get there.

So lets take the top 2 teams. They play each other and there really isn't a realistic way I see the Cats moving ahead of SDSU due to the head to head. The Jacks would have to lose 3 games (like I said realistic) because even with 2 losses they would still get the nod due to the head to head win over the Cats. NDSU could lose the Marker but still stay ahead of the Cats because of SOS and losing in Brookings as opposed to losing at home like the Cats did. IF the Bison drop 2 games they will move behind the Cats though making this week against SIU a big game for seeding purposes.

Tarleton, there is past evidence that an undefeated team gets a top 2 seed even if there is doubt as to whether or not they are actually the best team. In 2021 everyone knew that Sam Houston played an easy schedule and probably weren't the best team but they were 11-0 and the defending champs so they got the #1. Tarleton will get a top 2 if they go 12-0. The UAC has just enough ranked teams and the FBS win to get them there. We need WGA, ACU, or Peay to ruin their run.

UM could go 11-1 but if they lose to the Cats they will be on the outside of the top 2 seeds. The SOS just isn't there to overcome one loss if its to the Cats and the top 2 would go to the MVFC and the Cats(if they are 10-2) or Tar or a 2nd MVFC team.

SIU, if they win this weekend lookout. They do not play SDSU and would have to go win at ISU and YSU and beat UND at home but the schedule isn't a juggernaut for them to go undefeated in the Valley which means they are 11-1 and the only loss is to P4 Purdue. That's a top 2 seed.

Have to include Davis on here because they are unbeaten versus FCS but they have to host NAU and come to Bozeman. They could get to 10-1 and be in consideration but I give it less than 1% it happens and the one less game hurts their resume.

SO really even if the griz are the number 2 team in the nation on Nov. 22 and the Cats win they aren't jumping a 12-0 or 11-1 xDSU. They aren't jumping the winner of the Marker or an undefeated Valley team and a 12-0 Tarleton. And if the griz are 8-3 or 11-0 going into the Brawl it doesn't matter. The easiest path to a top 2 seed is NDSU dropping 2 games and a Tarleton loss.

Really needed to win that week 2 game damnit.

I'd add North Dakota to the list at least for the time being, they get both NDSU and SDSU at home and look good enough to have at least a shot at winning both of those games. Their game at Southern Illinois on the 18th will tell us a lot.

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

If Tarleton wins out I would love to go back to Texas and ruin another undefeated season in the playoffs. I would be there for sure!

A semi at Tarelton would be a gift. Either from the 3 or 6 position depending on how the game over the hill goes. Personally we've seen teams like Tarelton get beat along the way in the playoffs, so I don't think they host a semi even with the #2 seed.

Personally I think we max out at the #4 even with an 8-0 conference record unless we get help (looking at you North Dakota). The way it looks at the moment, marker schools and a 12-0 Tarleton will all be ahead of us in the seeds. Somebody mentioned this already, but it's conceivable they gift Tarelton the #1 just like the previous weak SHSU. All of a sudden the #4 is a perfect spot, although it might mean a rematch with the gris fwiw.

WalkOn79 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:31 am

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:50 am

A semi at Tarelton would be a gift. Either from the 3 or 6 position depending on how the game over the hill goes. Personally we've seen teams like Tarelton get beat along the way in the playoffs, so I don't think they host a semi even with the #2 seed.

Personally I think we max out at the #4 even with an 8-0 conference record unless we get help (looking at you North Dakota). The way it looks at the moment, marker schools and a 12-0 Tarleton will all be ahead of us in the seeds. Somebody mentioned this already, but it's conceivable they gift Tarelton the #1 just like the previous weak SHSU. All of a sudden the #4 is a perfect spot, although it might mean a rematch with the gris fwiw.

I agree that #4 is probably the best we can do but I also think #2 is the best Tarleton can do. The committee isn't going to seed an up and coming team above both XDSUs if they are undefeated outside of the marker game.

Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:52 am

WalkOn79 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:31 am

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

LOL, anyone who states in early October that there is NO WAY the committee will do something is likely going to end up disappointed. I remember how there was NO WAY in 2022 that MSU was going to get any worse than the 3 seed and a semifinal matchup with Sac State instead of SDSU.

coloradocat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:14 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:50 am

A semi at Tarelton would be a gift. Either from the 3 or 6 position depending on how the game over the hill goes. Personally we've seen teams like Tarelton get beat along the way in the playoffs, so I don't think they host a semi even with the #2 seed.

Personally I think we max out at the #4 even with an 8-0 conference record unless we get help (looking at you North Dakota). The way it looks at the moment, marker schools and a 12-0 Tarleton will all be ahead of us in the seeds. Somebody mentioned this already, but it's conceivable they gift Tarelton the #1 just like the previous weak SHSU. All of a sudden the #4 is a perfect spot, although it might mean a rematch with the gris fwiw.

I agree that #4 is probably the best we can do but I also think #2 is the best Tarleton can do. The committee isn't going to seed an up and coming team above both XDSUs if they are undefeated outside of the marker game.

I agree with that. It was more of a dream bracket if we get the #4. I really do think we would have a dUMb rematch in Bozeman if we land the #4, which would be epic. Unlike what's posted on egris, that team is really soft on defense. ISU exposed weaknesses at each level. Not a good recipe for playoffs wins in the road.

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:19 am

coloradocat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:14 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:50 am

A semi at Tarelton would be a gift. Either from the 3 or 6 position depending on how the game over the hill goes. Personally we've seen teams like Tarelton get beat along the way in the playoffs, so I don't think they host a semi even with the #2 seed.

Personally I think we max out at the #4 even with an 8-0 conference record unless we get help (looking at you North Dakota). The way it looks at the moment, marker schools and a 12-0 Tarleton will all be ahead of us in the seeds. Somebody mentioned this already, but it's conceivable they gift Tarelton the #1 just like the previous weak SHSU. All of a sudden the #4 is a perfect spot, although it might mean a rematch with the gris fwiw.

I agree that #4 is probably the best we can do but I also think #2 is the best Tarleton can do. The committee isn't going to seed an up and coming team above both XDSUs if they are undefeated outside of the marker game.

I agree with that. It was more of a dream bracket if we get the #4. I really do think we would have a dUMb rematch in Bozeman if we land the #4, which would be epic. Unlike what's posted on egris, that team is really soft on defense. ISU exposed weaknesses at each level. Not a good recipe for playoffs wins in the road.

A rematch when? Assuming that NDSU, SDSU, and Tarleton keep winning I think it's pretty easy to predict at this point that the Cat/Griz winner will be a Top 4 seed and the loser will be in the 5-8 range. The new 1 through 16 seeding format should help to minimize Big Sky vs Big Sky games in the early rounds.

MSU01 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:22 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:19 am

coloradocat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:14 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:50 am

A semi at Tarelton would be a gift. Either from the 3 or 6 position depending on how the game over the hill goes. Personally we've seen teams like Tarelton get beat along the way in the playoffs, so I don't think they host a semi even with the #2 seed.

Personally I think we max out at the #4 even with an 8-0 conference record unless we get help (looking at you North Dakota). The way it looks at the moment, marker schools and a 12-0 Tarleton will all be ahead of us in the seeds. Somebody mentioned this already, but it's conceivable they gift Tarelton the #1 just like the previous weak SHSU. All of a sudden the #4 is a perfect spot, although it might mean a rematch with the gris fwiw.

I agree that #4 is probably the best we can do but I also think #2 is the best Tarleton can do. The committee isn't going to seed an up and coming team above both XDSUs if they are undefeated outside of the marker game.

I agree with that. It was more of a dream bracket if we get the #4. I really do think we would have a dUMb rematch in Bozeman if we land the #4, which would be epic. Unlike what's posted on egris, that team is really soft on defense. ISU exposed weaknesses at each level. Not a good recipe for playoffs wins in the road.

A rematch when? Assuming that NDSU, SDSU, and Tarleton keep winning I think it's pretty easy to predict at this point that the Cat/Griz winner will be a Top 4 seed and the loser will be in the 5-8 range. The new 1 through 16 seeding format should help to minimize Big Sky vs Big Sky games in the early rounds.

Quarterfinals rematch. An 11-1 gris team will still be the #5. They pit MVFC teams against each other in the quarters and semis all the time. We played Idaho in the quarters last year. It happens.

MSU01 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:22 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:19 am

coloradocat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:14 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:50 am

A semi at Tarelton would be a gift. Either from the 3 or 6 position depending on how the game over the hill goes. Personally we've seen teams like Tarelton get beat along the way in the playoffs, so I don't think they host a semi even with the #2 seed.

Personally I think we max out at the #4 even with an 8-0 conference record unless we get help (looking at you North Dakota). The way it looks at the moment, marker schools and a 12-0 Tarleton will all be ahead of us in the seeds. Somebody mentioned this already, but it's conceivable they gift Tarelton the #1 just like the previous weak SHSU. All of a sudden the #4 is a perfect spot, although it might mean a rematch with the gris fwiw.

I agree that #4 is probably the best we can do but I also think #2 is the best Tarleton can do. The committee isn't going to seed an up and coming team above both XDSUs if they are undefeated outside of the marker game.

I agree with that. It was more of a dream bracket if we get the #4. I really do think we would have a dUMb rematch in Bozeman if we land the #4, which would be epic. Unlike what's posted on egris, that team is really soft on defense. ISU exposed weaknesses at each level. Not a good recipe for playoffs wins in the road.

A rematch when? Assuming that NDSU, SDSU, and Tarleton keep winning I think it's pretty easy to predict at this point that the Cat/Griz winner will be a Top 4 seed and the loser will be in the 5-8 range. The new 1 through 16 seeding format should help to minimize Big Sky vs Big Sky games in the early rounds.

Since there aren't more than 6 legit championship contending teams (and that number might be high), if we go into Cat-griz 4 and 5 I could see us coming out of that game 4 and 5 as well.

coloradocat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:15 am

Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:52 am

WalkOn79 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:31 am

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The obvious thing to root for is for SDSU to win out and lock up the #1.

Them getting one loss somewhere doesn’t help us, it actually just complicates things. And they’re not losing 3 games, so might as well just win out and lock up #1.

That leaves NDSU, Tarleton and um to jump for that #2.

If we beat the gris, then they’re out of the conversation obviously, and if we get beat, we’re out of the conversation. So assuming a Cat/gris win in this argument, it’s down to Tarleton and NDSU.

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Tarleton lose before the end of the regular season. But there is no team I’d rather see get the #2 seed besides us in this scenario. There is a solid chance they wouldn’t make it to the semi’s to begin with, and if they do, give me a road game against them in TX over a trip to Fargo or Brookings every damn time.

NDSU would be interesting. If they only have the one loss to SDSU, and it’s not as close as our game, it won’t be easy to pick who should be higher between us and them. Both would have one loss to the same FCS opponent, and one team, at least at this point, has a substantially tougher SOS. That should even out a bit over the rest of the season, but it’s definitely a feather in the Cats cap at the moment when comparing to NDSU.

@Catprint does a great job breaking all this down way more than I ever care to attempt in his Path to the Playoffs thread though, so that’ll be fun to follow these next few weeks.

Pretty straightforward. MSU needs to win out and South Dakota State needs to win out.

RockyBearCat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:28 am

coloradocat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:15 am

Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:52 am

WalkOn79 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:31 am

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:25 am

MSU01 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:22 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:19 am

coloradocat wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:14 am

ClowderUp wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 06, 2025 8:50 am

A semi at Tarelton would be a gift. Either from the 3 or 6 position depending on how the game over the hill goes. Personally we've seen teams like Tarelton get beat along the way in the playoffs, so I don't think they host a semi even with the #2 seed.

Personally I think we max out at the #4 even with an 8-0 conference record unless we get help (looking at you North Dakota). The way it looks at the moment, marker schools and a 12-0 Tarleton will all be ahead of us in the seeds. Somebody mentioned this already, but it's conceivable they gift Tarelton the #1 just like the previous weak SHSU. All of a sudden the #4 is a perfect spot, although it might mean a rematch with the gris fwiw.

I agree that #4 is probably the best we can do but I also think #2 is the best Tarleton can do. The committee isn't going to seed an up and coming team above both XDSUs if they are undefeated outside of the marker game.

I agree with that. It was more of a dream bracket if we get the #4. I really do think we would have a dUMb rematch in Bozeman if we land the #4, which would be epic. Unlike what's posted on egris, that team is really soft on defense. ISU exposed weaknesses at each level. Not a good recipe for playoffs wins in the road.

A rematch when? Assuming that NDSU, SDSU, and Tarleton keep winning I think it's pretty easy to predict at this point that the Cat/Griz winner will be a Top 4 seed and the loser will be in the 5-8 range. The new 1 through 16 seeding format should help to minimize Big Sky vs Big Sky games in the early rounds.

Quarterfinals rematch. An 11-1 gris team will still be the #5. They pit MVFC teams against each other in the quarters and semis all the time. We played Idaho in the quarters last year. It happens.

Agreed, I can see it as a 4 vs 5 quarterfinal game but it definitely won't happen before that unless whoever loses Cat/Griz also drops another game or two along the way and gets bumped down into the lower end of the 9-16 seed range. We will see if Tarleton can win out (I suspect they won't), if they drop a game then a 10-2 MSU team with losses to Oregon and SDSU would have a strong argument for the 3 seed over them.

Hell, worst case Tarleton gets #2 and the Cats are in the same side of the bracket, as I would not be surprised at all if Tarleton losses out before having to play the Cats.

So here is a question. If NDSU loses to SDSU, then NDSU and Cats are both X-1 in FCS games. Cats loss to SDSU was inches in double overtime. If SDSU handles NDSU much easier, does that vault Cats over NDSU? I would think it should as well, but "will it?"