The Bobcat Nation

Points/Game:

-MSU: 42.1
-USD: 37.2

Points/Game Allowed:

-MSU: 17.1
-USD: 16.2

Yards/Attempt:

-MSU: 9.0
-USD: 9.7

Yards/Attempt Allowed:

-MSU: 5.9
-USD: 6.9

Yards/Carry:

-MSU: 6.8
-USD: 6.1

Yards/Carry Allowed:

-MSU: 3.9
-USD: 3.2

3rd Down Conversion %:

-MSU: 56.5%
-USD: 46.2%

3rd Down Conversion % Allowed:

-MSU: 32.1%
-USD: 40.9%

Red Zone TD %:

-MSU: 83%
-USD: 76%

Red Zone TD % Allowed:

-MSU: 63%
-USD: 62%

Apart from homefield advantage and MSU having the best single player on the field in Mellott, I think those 3rd Down stats are the biggest reason why MSU will win comfortably on Saturday.

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 17, 2024 5:49 pm

Points/Game:

-MSU: 42.1
-USD: 37.2

Points/Game Allowed:

-MSU: 17.1
-USD: 16.2

Yards/Attempt:

-MSU: 9.0
-USD: 9.7

Yards/Attempt Allowed:

-MSU: 5.9
-USD: 6.9

Yards/Carry:

-MSU: 6.8
-USD: 6.1

Yards/Carry Allowed:

-MSU: 3.9
-USD: 3.2

3rd Down Conversion %:

-MSU: 56.5%
-USD: 46.2%

3rd Down Conversion % Allowed:

-MSU: 32.1%
-USD: 40.9%

Red Zone TD %:

-MSU: 83%
-USD: 76%

Red Zone TD % Allowed:

-MSU: 63%
-USD: 62%

Thanks for the breakdown

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:30 pm

Apart from homefield advantage and MSU having the best single player on the field in Mellott, I think those 3rd Down stats are the biggest reason why MSU will win comfortably on Saturday.

Through three quarters against Idaho, the Cats converted 11-13 third downs. Can’t help but feel like that will win 100% of the time no matter the opponent.

Cledus wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:57 pm

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:30 pm

Apart from homefield advantage and MSU having the best single player on the field in Mellott, I think those 3rd Down stats are the biggest reason why MSU will win comfortably on Saturday.

Through three quarters against Idaho, the Cats converted 11-13 third downs. Can’t help but feel like that will win 100% of the time no matter the opponent.

When you average 6+ yards per carry and don't get flagged a lot, it's really easy to spend most of your 3rd downs in short yardage.

Pick up 6 yards on 1st down...then theres a lot of playbook open to start stretching the field...and if you stretch the field with Mellots run skill...well, it looks good for the Cats.

This should be tough, no doubt. I've got nothing but respect for what the Yotes have done this season. But I don't think USD has the ball in a position to take the lead with <5 minutes left in the 4th.

Cats 31-24

Here's a weird stat I found on Twitter...Montana State doesn't punt a whole lot either so part of this trend will hopefully continue:

They're very big on both lines.

Cledus wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:57 pm

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:30 pm

Apart from homefield advantage and MSU having the best single player on the field in Mellott, I think those 3rd Down stats are the biggest reason why MSU will win comfortably on Saturday.

Through three quarters against Idaho, the Cats converted 11-13 third downs. Can’t help but feel like that will win 100% of the time no matter the opponent.

And Idaho was 0/8 at that point on 3rd.

The only 2 conversions they had were late in the 4th against backups to finish 2/10.

It’s like what Geno Auriemma once said when asked why he was confident of winning: “We have Diana Taurasi, and they don’t”. We have Tommy Mellott, and they don’t.

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 17, 2024 6:30 pm

Apart from homefield advantage and MSU having the best single player on the field in Mellott, I think those 3rd Down stats are the biggest reason why MSU will win comfortably on Saturday.

I think it will be the crowd. They are coming in to “the belly of the BEAST!” This won’t be the typical small dome crowd from the Missouri Valley. They will be dealing with a crazy Montana State bunch, the likes of something they haven’t seen before. Our fans will bring it Saturday! Guaranteed!

QB's:

-Mellott: 183/260, 70.4%, 2454 yards, 9.4 YPA, 28 TD, 2 INT, 9 Sacks, 183.7 rating, 92 attempts, 790 rush yards, 8.6 YPC, 12 TD

-Bouman: 194/283, 68.6%, 2722 yards, 9.6 YPA, 19 TD, 4 INT, 11 sacks, 168.7 rating, 21 carries, -41 rush yards, -2.0 YPC, 0 TD

Mellott has played in one extra game.

Mellott has produced 232 total yards and 2.6 TD's per contest; Bouman has produced 206 and 1.4 respectively.

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:29 pm

QB's:

-Mellott: 183/260, 70.4%, 2454 yards, 9.4 YPA, 28 TD, 2 INT, 9 Sacks, 183.7 rating, 92 attempts, 790 rush yards, 8.6 YPC, 12 TD

-Bouman: 194/283, 68.6%, 2722 yards, 9.6 YPA, 19 TD, 4 INT, 11 sacks, 168.7 rating, 21 carries, -41 rush yards, -2.0 YPC, 0 TD

Mellott has played in one extra game.

Mellott has produced 232 total yards and 2.6 TD's per contest; Bouman has produced 206 and 1.4 respectively.

Going by nothing but the final score, I count probably 6 games that Bouman would have played the entire game; no subbing in 2's and 3's because the 'Yotes were comfortably winning. I think Tommy only had two games where he was not eventually subbed out: New Mexico and UC Davis.

So even if the numbers are seemingly comparable, Tommy is producing more from the reps he does get than Bouman.

Cledus wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:41 pm

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:29 pm

QB's:

-Mellott: 183/260, 70.4%, 2454 yards, 9.4 YPA, 28 TD, 2 INT, 9 Sacks, 183.7 rating, 92 attempts, 790 rush yards, 8.6 YPC, 12 TD

-Bouman: 194/283, 68.6%, 2722 yards, 9.6 YPA, 19 TD, 4 INT, 11 sacks, 168.7 rating, 21 carries, -41 rush yards, -2.0 YPC, 0 TD

Mellott has played in one extra game.

Mellott has produced 232 total yards and 2.6 TD's per contest; Bouman has produced 206 and 1.4 respectively.

Going by nothing but the final score, I count probably 6 games that Bouman would have played the entire game; no subbing in 2's and 3's because the 'Yotes were comfortably winning. I think Tommy only had two games where he was not eventually subbed out: New Mexico and UC Davis.

So even if the numbers are seemingly comparable, Tommy is producing more from the reps he does get than Bouman.

Not to mention all our other starters that also sat. Imagine our stats if we Robby Hauck’ed them.

Cledus wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:41 pm

Lord Vigo wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:29 pm

QB's:

-Mellott: 183/260, 70.4%, 2454 yards, 9.4 YPA, 28 TD, 2 INT, 9 Sacks, 183.7 rating, 92 attempts, 790 rush yards, 8.6 YPC, 12 TD

-Bouman: 194/283, 68.6%, 2722 yards, 9.6 YPA, 19 TD, 4 INT, 11 sacks, 168.7 rating, 21 carries, -41 rush yards, -2.0 YPC, 0 TD

Mellott has played in one extra game.

Mellott has produced 232 total yards and 2.6 TD's per contest; Bouman has produced 206 and 1.4 respectively.

Going by nothing but the final score, I count probably 6 games that Bouman would have played the entire game; no subbing in 2's and 3's because the 'Yotes were comfortably winning. I think Tommy only had two games where he was not eventually subbed out: New Mexico and UC Davis.

So even if the numbers are seemingly comparable, Tommy is producing more from the reps he does get than Bouman.

And Idaho State. A lot of people forget about that game but starters played wire to wire.

Their defensive stats give me vibes of a bend don't break defense

blueandgoldblitz wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 18, 2024 2:09 pm

Their defensive stats give me vibes of a bend don't break defense

Agree, so 3rd down and red zone conversion will be key.