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Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:19 am
by The MICKSTER
Well, we couldn’t have won in more dramatic fashion and I suppose if we’d have won by 3 scores that would help is in the polls, but an FBS win (last one was 18 yrs ago…..2006 vs Colorado) is something to celebrate!
I’ve mentioned this before but……it is amazing to me how important a week 0 game on Aug 24th is and how it can impact who will be playing for the FCS title game on Monday Jan 6th. Let’s face it, the chances of making it to the championship is greatly increased if your team can be at home for a semi-final game……which most likely means ending the season with a top 2 seed. Getting a win against an FBS team (granted not a P5 team but an FBS team none the less) to start the season sure helps that cause. Two of the three teams currently ranked above us both have FBS opponents this coming week. SDSU plays at Oklahoma State on Saturday (ESPN+) and NDSU plays on TH night vs Deon Sanders’ Colorado Buffs (ESPN)….both FBS teams are currently 9.5 point favorites. The third ranked FCS team doesn’t play an FBS team this season and has what I would call the easiest schedule you could hope for while being a member of the BSC. Their toughest game by far will be playing us in Bozeman on Nov 23rd, the next toughest would be playing @ the 5th ranked MVFC team UND or hosting UCD(4th ranked BSC)…. 5 of their first 7 games are at home.
Below is a summary of some of the more ‘difficult’ games each of the top 4 FCS teams have this year………
#1 SDSU; Aug 31@Oklahoma St, Oct 19@NDSU, Oct 26 vs S Dakota, Nov 9@N Dakota, Nov 16 vs S Ill.
#2 NDSU; Aug 29@Colorado, Oct 5 vs N Dakota, Oct 12@ S Ill, Oct 19 vs NDSU, Nov 23@S Dakota
#3 um; Sep 7@N Dakota (picked 5th in MVFC), Nov 9 vs UCDavis, Nov 23@MSU
#4 MSU; Aug 24th@UNM(W), Oct 12vs Idaho, Nov 16@UCDavis, Nov 23 vs um
I don’t want to get too confident, but it appears to me that we won’t have a challenging game until Oct 12 when we host Idaho. I think we’ll be 6-0 then. Also, I think/hope that Davis, Reed, Perkins, & Polidore will be recovered by then. I don’t think that either SDSU & NDSU will be able to pull off their FBS upsets, so they should each have 1 loss…..but that is far from certain. The gris on the other hand would have to lose to the 5th ranked MVFC team for them to have had a loss by Oct 12…..I don’t think that will happen but not certain about that either. Assuming both SDSU & NDSU lose this week……will we move up to 2nd? That depends on IF & how they lose. Also, just because we might be ranked #2 at the end of the season, doesn’t mean the committee will see it that way……i.e. 2022 season.
1 game behind us, 11 regular season games in front of us (which includes a minimum of 3 challenging games), but we just cleared maybe our biggest hurdle of the regular season and is IMHO a big big step in playing on Jan 6th. GO CATS!!!
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:23 am
by luckyirishguy25
The MICKSTER wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:19 am
Well, we couldn’t have won in more dramatic fashion and I suppose if we’d have won by 3 scores that would help is in the polls, but an FBS win
(last one was 18 yrs ago…..2006 vs Colorado) is something to celebrate!
I’ve mentioned this before but……it is amazing to me how important a week 0 game on Aug 24th is and how it can impact who will be playing for the FCS title game on Monday Jan 6th. Let’s face it, the chances of making it to the championship is greatly increased if your team can be at home for a semi-final game……which most likely means ending the season with a top 2 seed. Getting a win against an FBS team
(granted not a P5 team but an FBS team none the less) to start the season sure helps that cause. Two of the three teams currently ranked above us both have FBS opponents this coming week. SDSU plays at Oklahoma State on Saturday (ESPN+) and NDSU plays on TH night vs Deon Sanders’ Colorado Buffs (ESPN)….both FBS teams are currently 9.5 point favorites. The third ranked FCS team doesn’t play an FBS team this season and has what I would call the easiest schedule you could hope for while being a member of the BSC. Their toughest game by far will be playing us in Bozeman on Nov 23rd, the next toughest would be playing @ the 5th ranked MVFC team UND or hosting UCD
(4th ranked BSC)…. 5 of their first 7 games are at home.
Below is a summary of some of the more ‘difficult’ games each of the top 4 FCS teams have this year………
#1 SDSU; Aug 31@Oklahoma St, Oct 19@NDSU, Oct 26 vs S Dakota, Nov 9@N Dakota, Nov 16 vs S Ill.
#2 NDSU; Aug 29@Colorado, Oct 5 vs N Dakota, Oct 12@ S Ill, Oct 19 vs NDSU, Nov 23@S Dakota
#3 um; Sep 7@N Dakota
(picked 5th in MVFC), Nov 9 vs UCDavis, Nov 23@MSU
#4 MSU; Aug 24th@UNM(
W), Oct 12vs Idaho, Nov 16@UCDavis, Nov 23 vs um
I don’t want to get too confident, but it appears to me that we won’t have a challenging game until Oct 12 when we host Idaho. I think we’ll be 6-0 then. Also, I think/hope that Davis, Reed, Perkins, & Polidore will be recovered by then. I don’t think that either SDSU & NDSU will be able to pull off their FBS upsets, so they should each have 1 loss…..but that is far from certain. The gris on the other hand would have to lose to the 5th ranked MVFC team for them to have had a loss by Oct 12…..I don’t think that will happen but not certain about that either. Assuming both SDSU & NDSU lose this week……will we move up to 2nd? That depends on IF & how they lose. Also, just because we might be ranked #2 at the end of the season, doesn’t mean the committee will see it that way……
i.e. 2022 season.
1 game behind us, 11 regular season games in front of us
(which includes a minimum of 3 challenging games), but we just cleared maybe our biggest hurdle of the regular season and is IMHO a big big step in playing on Jan 6th.
GO CATS!!!
To be fair, with the transfer portal, Teams can change radically in a year. We really don't know who's tough and who's not yet.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:35 am
by Camo_Cat
I actually think NDSU has a legitimate chance to beat CU. Until Deion can prove his team is more than just talk, I don't see the Buffs improving from last season.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:42 am
by The MICKSTER
Camo_Cat wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:35 am
I actually think NDSU has a legitimate chance to beat CU. Until Deion can prove his team is more than just talk, I don't see the Buffs improving from last season.
Of those 2 games, certainly NDSU has a better chance of pulling off the upset than SDSU......Oklahoma State ranked 3rd in preseason Big 12 poll, where Colorado is ranked 11th.......
by the way, the BIG 12 has 16 teams 
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:52 am
by BleedingBLue
Camo_Cat wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:35 am
I actually think NDSU has a legitimate chance to beat CU. Until Deion can prove his team is more than just talk, I don't see the Buffs improving from last season.
I think they have a small chance, but their chances have decreased with some of their injuries. All-American S Cole Wisniewski is probably out and may require a second foot surgery costing him all of 2024. Their FB/LS is out for an extended period of time last I read as well. Saw a couple updates last week about a DL or 2 and maybe an OL that could hurt them if they are out this week. They're facing two future top 10 picks against CU.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:04 pm
by The Butcher
Fortunately, by the time November comes, people will only notice the win next to New Mexico's name. That game was rough against a subpar team and likely won't earn much consideration when it comes to seeding...
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:11 pm
by mslacatfan
The Butcher wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:04 pm
Fortunately, by the time November comes, people will only notice the win next to New Mexico's name. That game was rough against a subpar team and likely won't earn much consideration when it comes to seeding...
I can promise you that when it comes to seeding- a rough game, but a victory vs New Mexico…. Looks much better than a loss.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:12 pm
by TomCat88
The schedule, especially now that UNM is in the rearview mirror and a win, is night and day from last year. Over the next 13 weekends, MSU will be in Bozeman for eight of them. After this week it will 8 of 12 and all the long road trips will be over, except Davis. Six home games and two byes.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:17 pm
by MSU01
The Butcher wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:04 pm
Fortunately, by the time November comes, people will only notice the win next to New Mexico's name. That game was rough against a subpar team and likely won't earn much consideration when it comes to seeding...
If MSU has the year we hope they will they won't need the New Mexico win to give them much seeding consideration. Nothing's for sure but I feel like it's pretty safe to say at this point that the top two seeds in some order will be the NDSU/SDSU winner if that team also wins the MVFC title, and the Cat/Griz winner if that team also wins the Big Sky title.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:38 pm
by The MICKSTER
TomCat88 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:12 pm
The schedule, especially now that UNM is in the rearview mirror and a win, is night and day from last year. Over the next 13 weekends, MSU will be in Bozeman for eight of them. After this week it will 8 of 12 and all the long road trips will be over, except Davis. Six home games and two byes.
The future is bright
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 3:14 pm
by Prodigal Cat
TomCat88 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:12 pm
The schedule, especially now that UNM is in the rearview mirror and a win, is night and day from last year. Over the next 13 weekends, MSU will be in Bozeman for eight of them. After this week it will 8 of 12 and all the long road trips will be over, except Davis. Six home games and two byes.
Would it be weird to say the Davis game might be the toughest on the schedule if Larison is still healthy? Not because I think they are better than um, they aren't. It's just playing on the road against a quality opponent, late kick, the week before the brawl. Tricky spot.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 5:18 pm
by catatac
The MICKSTER wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:38 pm
TomCat88 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:12 pm
The schedule, especially now that UNM is in the rearview mirror and a win, is night and day from last year. Over the next 13 weekends, MSU will be in Bozeman for eight of them. After this week it will 8 of 12 and all the long road trips will be over, except Davis. Six home games and two byes.
The future is bright
Agree, that's an interesting breakdown of our remaining games - and thanks for the first post that started this thread, great info! Will be really interested to see if NDSU, SDSU, but mainly UM has a their NAU game this year, and who that will be against.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2024 5:24 pm
by Prodigal Cat
mslacatfan wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:11 pm
The Butcher wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:04 pm
Fortunately, by the time November comes, people will only notice the win next to New Mexico's name. That game was rough against a subpar team and likely won't earn much consideration when it comes to seeding...
I can promise you that when it comes to seeding- a rough game, but a victory vs New Mexico…. Looks much better than a loss.
yup... Cats played a top 20 FBS team in '22 and got creamed and it most certainly hurt them. It was the only loss of the season and they were given the 4 when they deserved the 3. Now it can't be factored in as a negative. A win is a win is a win.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 12:19 pm
by The MICKSTER
Well we're 2-0 on the road to start the season with an FBS win. At this point we couldn't ask for anything better. In fact, we are the only FCS team to have an FBS win to their credit (UNM had a respectible showing @ Arizona I thought). Although in the next few weeks there 'likely(?)' will be more.
As we saw, the top 2 ranked FCS teams lost to FBS teams in what I would describe as 'good showings'. The #3 team had a 'less than impressive' 5 point win at home vs the 9th ranked MVFC team.....they play the #5 ranked MVFC team on the road this week. Will we move up in the polls? Who knows....???? On thing we do know, we have our destiny in our own hands.......the #1 & #2 teams play each other (which means 1 of them will have at least 2 losses) and we play the #3 team at home to end the conference season.
Idaho had an impressive showing @Oregon. UCD had a recpectible showing @Cal, as did Sac @SJSU. We play all of those BSC teams. The #3 team only plays UCD......at home none-the-less. It is what it is. We're 2-0 now and unless the 'wheels fall off' we'll be 4-0 in 3 weeks which includes a bye week. As 'tomcat' has noted....in the next 12 weeks we're home 8 of them....6 home games, 2 byes and 4 road trips, 2 of which are short trips to Pocatello and Cheney.
Apparently Tommy just had 'cramps' on his last play. IMHO, the fact that our #4 was carrying the ball in the 4th qtr, whether or not he was significantly injured or not, is not a 'sound' decision. Our OL was dominating and at that point I think I could have played QB and we still would have won handily. Having Tommy run the ball in the 4th qrtr in a game like that is a herendious decision. I hope that it was just 'cramps', AND, the coaching staff has learned from this experience.
Maine, our Gold Rush opponent, held on at home to beat Colgate 17-14 (each team had ~ 300 yds of offense total) . FYI, our TE Rohan Jones is a transfer from Maine. I don't think we've ever had a Gold Rush game as the third game of the season.....it'll be rockin'! GO CATS!!!
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:10 pm
by RobertSebastianCat-81
Nice summary. You said a lot that I was thinking.
I think it was 1st down and 1 yard for goal when Tommy got hurt. We sure could have got it in having four chances using other personnel.
I was listening to the friz game as well and they almost lost to Mo State. They were well-matched teams. And Mo State got called for 5 false starts because of the home town noise which affected their ability to score, one was on their final drive. Glad to see this vulnerability in the friz. I think they will go down vs. Western Carolina!
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 2:17 pm
by catatac
RobertSebastianCat-81 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:10 pm
Nice summary. You said a lot that I was thinking.
I think it was 1st down and 1 yard for goal when Tommy got hurt. We sure could have got it in having four chances using other personnel.
I was listening to the friz game as well and they almost lost to Mo State. They were well-matched teams. And Mo State got called for 5 false starts because of the home town noise which affected their ability to score, one was on their final drive. Glad to see this vulnerability in the friz. I think they will go down vs. Western Carolina!
First I think they lose to UND, not sure about Western Carolina. I'm thinking they are about even with them but the ten or so points that stadium give them will probably be the difference. I think going to UND to face a jacked up crowd and a good, tough team, with a good defense, is a bigger challenge at this point. Those Griz QBs will make some mistakes and it will probably cost them the game.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 3:12 pm
by Common Cat
catatac wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 2:17 pm
RobertSebastianCat-81 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:10 pm
Nice summary. You said a lot that I was thinking.
I think it was 1st down and 1 yard for goal when Tommy got hurt. We sure could have got it in having four chances using other personnel.
I was listening to the friz game as well and they almost lost to Mo State. They were well-matched teams. And Mo State got called for 5 false starts because of the home town noise which affected their ability to score, one was on their final drive. Glad to see this vulnerability in the friz. I think they will go down vs. Western Carolina!
First I think they lose to UND, not sure about Western Carolina. I'm thinking they are about even with them but the ten or so points that stadium give them will probably be the difference. I think going to UND to face a jacked up crowd and a good, tough team, with a good defense, is a bigger challenge at this point. Those Griz QBs will make some mistakes and it will probably cost them the game.
Are you stating that you think Western Carolina is as good as the griz?
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 3:35 pm
by 4KornerKat
Common Cat wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 3:12 pm
catatac wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 2:17 pm
RobertSebastianCat-81 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:10 pm
Nice summary. You said a lot that I was thinking.
I think it was 1st down and 1 yard for goal when Tommy got hurt. We sure could have got it in having four chances using other personnel.
I was listening to the friz game as well and they almost lost to Mo State. They were well-matched teams. And Mo State got called for 5 false starts because of the home town noise which affected their ability to score, one was on their final drive. Glad to see this vulnerability in the friz. I think they will go down vs. Western Carolina!
First I think they lose to UND, not sure about Western Carolina. I'm thinking they are about even with them but the ten or so points that stadium give them will probably be the difference. I think going to UND to face a jacked up crowd and a good, tough team, with a good defense, is a bigger challenge at this point. Those Griz QBs will make some mistakes and it will probably cost them the game.
Are you stating that you think Western Carolina is as good as the griz?
I'd argue that point. I think that stadium is good for 7-10 points, if they were playing at WCU I think it might be a tossup. Look how well WCU played NC State for 3 quarters
UND who knows. They can beat anyone or lose to anyone depending on the week
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 4:14 pm
by Common Cat
4KornerKat wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 3:35 pm
Common Cat wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 3:12 pm
catatac wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 2:17 pm
RobertSebastianCat-81 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:10 pm
Nice summary. You said a lot that I was thinking.
I think it was 1st down and 1 yard for goal when Tommy got hurt. We sure could have got it in having four chances using other personnel.
I was listening to the friz game as well and they almost lost to Mo State. They were well-matched teams. And Mo State got called for 5 false starts because of the home town noise which affected their ability to score, one was on their final drive. Glad to see this vulnerability in the friz. I think they will go down vs. Western Carolina!
First I think they lose to UND, not sure about Western Carolina. I'm thinking they are about even with them but the ten or so points that stadium give them will probably be the difference. I think going to UND to face a jacked up crowd and a good, tough team, with a good defense, is a bigger challenge at this point. Those Griz QBs will make some mistakes and it will probably cost them the game.
Are you stating that you think Western Carolina is as good as the griz?
I'd argue that point. I think that stadium is good for 7-10 points, if they were playing at WCU I think it might be a tossup. Look how well WCU played NC State for 3 quarters
UND who knows. They can beat anyone or lose to anyone depending on the week
Agreed to say washington/griz stadium is good for 7-10 pts, maybe even 14. But to say WCU is as good as the griz is just crazy talk. Go ahead and look at the massey ratings, or any metric. Hanging with NC State for one game does not qualify them for elite FCS status.
Re: Looking forward........
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 4:23 pm
by tetoncat
Common Cat wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 4:14 pm
4KornerKat wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 3:35 pm
Common Cat wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 3:12 pm
catatac wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 2:17 pm
RobertSebastianCat-81 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:10 pm
Nice summary. You said a lot that I was thinking.
I think it was 1st down and 1 yard for goal when Tommy got hurt. We sure could have got it in having four chances using other personnel.
I was listening to the friz game as well and they almost lost to Mo State. They were well-matched teams. And Mo State got called for 5 false starts because of the home town noise which affected their ability to score, one was on their final drive. Glad to see this vulnerability in the friz. I think they will go down vs. Western Carolina!
First I think they lose to UND, not sure about Western Carolina. I'm thinking they are about even with them but the ten or so points that stadium give them will probably be the difference. I think going to UND to face a jacked up crowd and a good, tough team, with a good defense, is a bigger challenge at this point. Those Griz QBs will make some mistakes and it will probably cost them the game.
Are you stating that you think Western Carolina is as good as the griz?
I'd argue that point. I think that stadium is good for 7-10 points, if they were playing at WCU I think it might be a tossup. Look how well WCU played NC State for 3 quarters
UND who knows. They can beat anyone or lose to anyone depending on the week
Agreed to say washington/griz stadium is good for 7-10 pts, maybe even 14. But to say WCU is as good as the griz is just crazy talk. Go ahead and look at the massey ratings, or any metric. Hanging with NC State for one game does not qualify them for elite FCS status.
Metrics don't mean much until mid season. They sell readers on them but not much to base it off,just like polls.