Sam Houston

[BStinsMSU]

Sportsbetmontana opened with SHSU as 6.5 pt favorites and the over/under is 49.5.

That feels about right. I’m hammering the under BTW. My bold, irrational homer prediction is 21-17 CATS. I watched our defense shut down EB with my own two eyes. I’ve yet to see them not be up for the challenge.

[FYI]

I thought football was a religion in Texas, but it turns out not everywhere. Sam Houston averaged just 4,378 per home game in 2019.
The Bobcats have that many left in the parking lot at the tailgate parties early in the third quarter.

[RickRund]

They might not put up the yards and points like EWU against good defenses, but SHSU will be a challenge just cause they’re not so one dimensional as EWU is. They have a good qb and wrs and they run it well, so I just think people say they’re the best offense team that we have faced because they are the most balanced team we have faced so far.

SHSU is very good and should be a TD favorite. So hard to say. They won it in 2020. MSU made semis in 2019 and lost to one of the best NDSU teams. I think MSU is better defensively than the 2019 team. I don’t think SDSU is as good as NDSU was in 2019. But the Bobcats lost 42-14, so they don’t have to be.

I have no idea how the MSU offense is going to perform. Definitely need to not get behind. The defense almost has to have its A game and there cannot be any special teams problems. If MSU can keep it close for three quarters and be more physical, then it has a good shot.

Looks like Massey has SH at 28-23...

[TomCat88]

Sportsbetmontana opened with SHSU as 6.5 pt favorites and the over/under is 49.5.

They saw my post.

[rivercat]

Sportsbetmontana opened with SHSU as 6.5 pt favorites and the over/under is 49.5.

They saw my post.

They know where to go.

[GoCats18]

How amazing would it be if we had an indoor practice field for this week. I feel like they should just fly down on Wednesday so they have a few days of warm weather practices.

[kwcat]

[media] [/media]

are they named after this song!

[Joe Bobcat]

Thinking back to our previous games against SHS I think we have substantially closed the talent and speed gap deficits that we had with them in years past. They outweigh us on both lines by a bunch and that could be problematic. What is it that Gregorak always says about mass?
I firmly believe that TM can put up some remarkably better passing numbers than past history would indicate, remarkably better as in the 200 yards plus area. If he and the receivers can do that we win. Watching the game against UIW that QB was an amazing passer which TM won't be, but he doesn't have to be. If he's 200 yards passing decent that will be enough and there were some huge opportunities in that UIW game for the QB to take off out of the pocket for big gains that TM would gash them for big yards. Tommy will have to recognize the times where he isn't going to be able to scramble out of trouble and instead needs to throw the ball away. He'll have to show maturity beyond his years and experience level to make that distinction consistently.

[Lord Vigo]

There has been quite a bit of chatter about how good the Bearkats are against the run, given that MSU is reliant on the running game.

But the opposite is also true, just a little less pronounced. The Bearkats' offense is more driven by the run than the pass. Half of their yards have come in the running game and they run 53.5% of the time. MSU's run defense is almost as good, statistically, as the Bearkats (2.94 YPC allowed vs. 2.62).

One another interesting think that jumped out to me is that while SHSU is among the worst teams in the FCS when it comes to passing yards allowed (270 yds/game is 115th overall), their YPA allowed is actually very respectable (6.47). If you look at the teams around them in terms of total yards allowed, that YPA number stands out (for reference, the Cats are #6 in the nation in passing yards allowed at 162 yards/game, and their YPA allowed is 6.21).

What this tells me is that the SHSU pass defense is not actually bad. They just see a ton of pass attempts because teams don't try to run against them.

[Prodigal Cat]

There has been quite a bit of chatter about how good the Bearkats are against the run, given that MSU is reliant on the running game.

But the opposite is also true, just a little less pronounced. The Bearkats' offense is more driven by the run than the pass. Half of their yards have come in the running game and they run 53.5% of the time. MSU's run defense is almost as good, statistically, as the Bearkats (2.94 YPC allowed vs. 2.62).

One another interesting think that jumped out to me is that while SHSU is among the worst teams in the FCS when it comes to passing yards allowed (270 yds/game is 115th overall), their YPA allowed is actually very respectable (6.47). If you look at the teams around them in terms of total yards allowed, that YPA number stands out (for reference, the Cats are #6 in the nation in passing yards allowed at 162 yards/game, and their YPA allowed is 6.21).

What this tells me is that the SHSU pass defense is not actually bad. They just see a ton of pass attempts because teams don't try to run against them.

Did you watch the UIW game? WRs were running free. When SHSU made it 35-42, UIW scored to tie it in 2 plays. The first the DB's were playing so far off, the receiver ran a short curl then turned and ran, got 13 yards. The next play they moved up and Ward hit a wide open WR that burned his corner with ease on a 9 route. They are very bad at pass coverage. It wouldn't shock me at all if Lance has a game similar to EWU.

[catatac]

Thinking back to our previous games against SHS I think we have substantially closed the talent and speed gap deficits that we had with them in years past. They outweigh us on both lines by a bunch and that could be problematic. What is it that Gregorak always says about mass?
I firmly believe that TM can put up some remarkably better passing numbers than past history would indicate, remarkably better as in the 200 yards plus area. If he and the receivers can do that we win. Watching the game against UIW that QB was an amazing passer which TM won't be, but he doesn't have to be. If he's 200 yards passing decent that will be enough and there were some huge opportunities in that UIW game for the QB to take off out of the pocket for big gains that TM would gash them for big yards. Tommy will have to recognize the times where he isn't going to be able to scramble out of trouble and instead needs to throw the ball away. He'll have to show maturity beyond his years and experience level to make that distinction consistently.

Huh? I glanced at their starting lines and they average 289 on the OL and 266 on the DL. Bobcats average 298 on the OL and 260 on the DL. Regardless, even if they did outweigh us significantly, I don't think we're undersized on either line whatsoever. We've held up well (usually winning) against much bigger lines.

[Lord Vigo]

There has been quite a bit of chatter about how good the Bearkats are against the run, given that MSU is reliant on the running game.

But the opposite is also true, just a little less pronounced. The Bearkats' offense is more driven by the run than the pass. Half of their yards have come in the running game and they run 53.5% of the time. MSU's run defense is almost as good, statistically, as the Bearkats (2.94 YPC allowed vs. 2.62).

One another interesting think that jumped out to me is that while SHSU is among the worst teams in the FCS when it comes to passing yards allowed (270 yds/game is 115th overall), their YPA allowed is actually very respectable (6.47). If you look at the teams around them in terms of total yards allowed, that YPA number stands out (for reference, the Cats are #6 in the nation in passing yards allowed at 162 yards/game, and their YPA allowed is 6.21).

What this tells me is that the SHSU pass defense is not actually bad. They just see a ton of pass attempts because teams don't try to run against them.

Did you watch the UIW game? WRs were running free. When SHSU made it 35-42, UIW scored to tie it in 2 plays. The first the DB's were playing so far off, the receiver ran a short curl then turned and ran, got 13 yards. The next play they moved up and Ward hit a wide open WR that burned his corner with ease on a 9 route. They are very bad at pass coverage. It wouldn't shock me at all if Lance has a game similar to EWU.

Yes. But I’m giving more weight to a season’s worth of results.

[Joe Bobcat]

Thinking back to our previous games against SHS I think we have substantially closed the talent and speed gap deficits that we had with them in years past. They outweigh us on both lines by a bunch and that could be problematic. What is it that Gregorak always says about mass?
I firmly believe that TM can put up some remarkably better passing numbers than past history would indicate, remarkably better as in the 200 yards plus area. If he and the receivers can do that we win. Watching the game against UIW that QB was an amazing passer which TM won't be, but he doesn't have to be. If he's 200 yards passing decent that will be enough and there were some huge opportunities in that UIW game for the QB to take off out of the pocket for big gains that TM would gash them for big yards. Tommy will have to recognize the times where he isn't going to be able to scramble out of trouble and instead needs to throw the ball away. He'll have to show maturity beyond his years and experience level to make that distinction consistently.

Huh? I glanced at their starting lines and they average 289 on the OL and 266 on the DL. Bobcats average 298 on the OL and 260 on the DL. Regardless, even if they did outweigh us significantly, I don't think we're undersized on either line whatsoever. We've held up well (usually winning) against much bigger lines.

Well that's what I get for not doing my research better or at all actually. I watched their game from last weekend and the announcers kept talking about this 300 pounder and that one and another... They also seemed like they were bigger than our linemen. I'm very glad to hear that we are on par with their size. I'm hoping that we are quicker and have better technique.

[Helcat72]

I think they are huge on the right side and a bit under 300 on the left.

[Prodigal Cat]

There has been quite a bit of chatter about how good the Bearkats are against the run, given that MSU is reliant on the running game.

But the opposite is also true, just a little less pronounced. The Bearkats' offense is more driven by the run than the pass. Half of their yards have come in the running game and they run 53.5% of the time. MSU's run defense is almost as good, statistically, as the Bearkats (2.94 YPC allowed vs. 2.62).

One another interesting think that jumped out to me is that while SHSU is among the worst teams in the FCS when it comes to passing yards allowed (270 yds/game is 115th overall), their YPA allowed is actually very respectable (6.47). If you look at the teams around them in terms of total yards allowed, that YPA number stands out (for reference, the Cats are #6 in the nation in passing yards allowed at 162 yards/game, and their YPA allowed is 6.21).

What this tells me is that the SHSU pass defense is not actually bad. They just see a ton of pass attempts because teams don't try to run against them.

Did you watch the UIW game? WRs were running free. When SHSU made it 35-42, UIW scored to tie it in 2 plays. The first the DB's were playing so far off, the receiver ran a short curl then turned and ran, got 13 yards. The next play they moved up and Ward hit a wide open WR that burned his corner with ease on a 9 route. They are very bad at pass coverage. It wouldn't shock me at all if Lance has a game similar to EWU.

Yes. But I’m giving more weight to a season’s worth of results.

I wouldn't. Not when they have played teams with the talent disparity of Dixie St, Tarleton St, and Lamar. Those teams were behind multiple scores and didn't abandon the run, they were throwing to get chunk plays and they were overmatched at the line of scrimmage and pretty much everywhere else on the field. The results give really no useful information. I'd rather analyze games where the opposing team was not totally out of their league. Stats can be misleading and often are.

[Lord Vigo]

There has been quite a bit of chatter about how good the Bearkats are against the run, given that MSU is reliant on the running game.

But the opposite is also true, just a little less pronounced. The Bearkats' offense is more driven by the run than the pass. Half of their yards have come in the running game and they run 53.5% of the time. MSU's run defense is almost as good, statistically, as the Bearkats (2.94 YPC allowed vs. 2.62).

One another interesting think that jumped out to me is that while SHSU is among the worst teams in the FCS when it comes to passing yards allowed (270 yds/game is 115th overall), their YPA allowed is actually very respectable (6.47). If you look at the teams around them in terms of total yards allowed, that YPA number stands out (for reference, the Cats are #6 in the nation in passing yards allowed at 162 yards/game, and their YPA allowed is 6.21).

What this tells me is that the SHSU pass defense is not actually bad. They just see a ton of pass attempts because teams don't try to run against them.

Did you watch the UIW game? WRs were running free. When SHSU made it 35-42, UIW scored to tie it in 2 plays. The first the DB's were playing so far off, the receiver ran a short curl then turned and ran, got 13 yards. The next play they moved up and Ward hit a wide open WR that burned his corner with ease on a 9 route. They are very bad at pass coverage. It wouldn't shock me at all if Lance has a game similar to EWU.

Yes. But I’m giving more weight to a season’s worth of results.

I wouldn't. Not when they have played teams with the talent disparity of Dixie St, Tarleton St, and Lamar. Those teams were behind multiple scores and didn't abandon the run, they were throwing to get chunk plays and they were overmatched at the line of scrimmage and pretty much everywhere else on the field. The results give really no useful information. I'd rather analyze games where the opposing team was not totally out of their league. Stats can be misleading and often are.

Look man, I'm with you-- they haven't really played anyone. I've been arguing that.

However, I still think the season long stats are telling.

Let me illustrate with their games against Central Arkansas and Stephen F. Austin.

Both teams have really strong YPA results on the season. CARK finished at 8.17 and SFA at 8.40.

In their games against SHSU, they were at 6.9 and 6.3 respectively.

Now check this out-- SHSU opponents ran 776 plays against them on the season. 458 of them were passes (59%). Much of that surely had to do with teams being in catch up mode, but there's no doubt that a big part of the reason for it is also that they've had one of the stingiest run defenses in the FCS. Their 2.62 YPC allowed is 6th overall.

So my point is that, on the season, their passing defense has given up a lot of yards because of a lot of volume, not necessarily because they get shredded through the air with big plays.

To your point, the IW game illustrates that they can be had via the big play; it's possible. But the balance of their season says that that weakness isn't a defining characteristic.

[Pecos24]

I think they are huge on the right side and a bit under 300 on the left.

Their starting LT is 345, LG 340, I don’t remember the rest. Like 310, 300, 290?

[catatac]

I think they are huge on the right side and a bit under 300 on the left.

Their starting LT is 345, LG 340, I don’t remember the rest. Like 310, 300, 290?

Oops, I stand corrected. I just looked at the participation report from the last game and ya - that left side of the line is huge! So whatever two deep I found was either incorrect, of maybe I accidentally pulled up the pre game notes 2-deep from one of the prior years we played them. Stiff test for our D Line but I think they can hold their own. Really hope CB is OK to play.

[St George]

I feel this game will come down to who has the 12th man on field. dUMb had the refs on their side against eastern, the only way lil hauck got away with targeting was the booth did not want to take the coaches kid out of the game. And I hope we don't run the same running play that's not working 47 times in a row.

[91catAlum]

Sam Herder game breakdown.
https://herosports.com/fcs-playoffs-mon ... view-dsds/