QB controversy? Statistical analysis QB1 vs QB2

[Long Time Cat]

QB1 vs QB2

A lot of talk on this board about McKay vs Rovig and also about McKay’s performance since the Weber game. I have done some statistical analysis of the situation, so in the info below you will see a comparison of McKay vs. Rovig and an analysis of McKay pre-Weber and post-Weber. Statistics don’t tell the whole story for sure but there are clearly some interesting tidbits in here.

Here is McKay vs Rovig. Rovig started the last 8 games of the regular season and so this is a comparison of the last 8 games of the regular season for both players. McKay was 7-1 Rovig was 6-2. These are all totals except for long which is average.

Stat____Comp__Att___Pct_____Yds___YPA___TD___Int___Long___Sack___Rush___Tot Yds
McKay__103____171___60.2___1341___7.8____9____3____42.8____13____188____1529
Rovig___104____176___59.1___1160___6.6____9____3____38.5____7_____6.0____1166

To me the passing stats are surprisingly close although McKay, in no small part because of his running ability, has about a 30% edge in total yardage. Which is significant.

McKay vs McKay vs Rovig

Because there are not an equal number of games to compare pre-Weber to post-Weber these statistics are all averages. The Weber game itself is not included so there are 6 games pre and 4 games post. The Weber game was statistically Mckay's worst game of the year, 76 yards passing and 4.0 YPA. As an interesting side note I have included Rovig’s last 4 regular season games from 2019.

Stat____Comp__Att____Pct____Yds___YPA___TD___Int___Long___Sack___Rush___Tot Yds
Pre_____15.5___22.8__67.9____224___9.8___2.0___0.2__45.7____0.8____27.2___251.2
Post____12.0___22.5__53.3____135___6.0___0.8___0.4__41.6____2.2____30.6___165.6
Rovig___11.8___19.0__61.8____134___7.1___0.6___0.2__34.8____0.8____-2.4____131.6

This tells me that what many have suspected is true, McKay has gotten worse. Much worse in the passing department. A drop off of nearly 40% in yards per attempt. If that is the most important QB stat then Rovig is better. Total yards says McKay is still better than Rovig, because he is a better runner. My eyes tell me McKay has lost his confidence and, according to my tag line, that means more than stats.

Disclaimer: I calculated all of these statistics so it's possible there is a mistake in there but I assure you it wasn't intentional.

[gtapp]

It is interesting you mention losing his confidence. After the ISU game I mentioned he looked like he lost all of his confidence. The change in numbers is dramatic. He obviously has not lost talent/ability so what else is it. Coaching? Adjustments?

[kennethnoisewater]

I just think you have to put a giant asterisk on any comparison of McKay in 2021 to Rovig in 2019. The offensive line was just so much better, and the run game (partially because of the OL) was more dynamic. I just don't think there's enough apples-to-apples to get much out of that.

As for McKay's regression, you could also say the toughest games of the season came after Weber. Having said that, I do agree he's not been as good as he was earlier in the season and I wouldn't argue with you about him dropping off. I personally just don't believe Rovig would've been any better, and I don't think you upset the apple cart for a lateral move. Just my $.02

[91catAlum]

QB1 vs QB2

A lot of talk on this board about McKay vs Rovig and also about McKay’s performance since the Weber game. I have done some statistical analysis of the situation, so in the info below you will see a comparison of McKay vs. Rovig and an analysis of McKay pre-Weber and post-Weber. Statistics don’t tell the whole story for sure but there are clearly some interesting tidbits in here.

Here is McKay vs Rovig. Rovig started the last 8 games of the regular season and so this is a comparison of the last 8 games of the regular season for both players. McKay was 7-1 Rovig was 6-2. These are all totals except for long which is average.

Stat____Comp__Att___Pct_____Yds___YPA___TD___Int___Long___Sack___Rush___Tot Yds
McKay__103____171___60.2___1341___7.8____9____3____42.8____13____188____1529
Rovig___104____176___59.1___1160___6.6____9____3____38.5____7_____6.0____1166

To me the passing stats are surprisingly close although McKay, in no small part because of his running ability, has about a 30% edge in total yardage. Which is significant.

McKay vs McKay vs Rovig

Because there are not an equal number of games to compare pre-Weber to post-Weber these statistics are all averages. The Weber game itself is not included so there are 6 games pre and 4 games post. The Weber game was statistically Mckay's worst game of the year, 76 yards passing and 4.0 YPA. As an interesting side note I have included Rovig’s last 4 regular season games from 2019.

Stat____Comp__Att____Pct____Yds___YPA___TD___Int___Long___Sack___Rush___Tot Yds
Pre_____15.5___22.8__67.9____224___9.8___2.0___0.2__45.7____0.8____27.2___251.2
Post____12.0___22.5__53.3____135___6.0___0.8___0.4__41.6____2.2____30.6___165.6
Rovig___11.8___19.0__61.8____134___7.1___0.6___0.2__34.8____0.8____-2.4____131.6

This tells me that what many have suspected is true, McKay has gotten worse. Much worse in the passing department. A drop off of nearly 40% in yards per attempt. If that is the most important QB stat then Rovig is better. Total yards says McKay is still better than Rovig, because he is a better runner. My eyes tell me McKay has lost his confidence and, according to my tag line, that means more than stats.

Disclaimer: I calculated all of these statistics so it's possible there is a mistake in there but I assure you it wasn't intentional.

Its an interesting breakdown, but a big factor in that is the quality of opponents. The "pre" stats include much weaker opponents like Drake, San Diego, Cal Poly, UNC and includes 4 home games. The "post" stats include just 2 home games plus tougher defenses like the griz and even Idaho (yes they have some dudes in their front 7).
So I think we all agree that McKay is struggling since Weber (minus the EWU game), but there are other moving parts.

[Camo_Cat]

It is interesting you mention losing his confidence. After the ISU game I mentioned he looked like he lost all of his confidence. The change in numbers is dramatic. He obviously has not lost talent/ability so what else is it. Coaching? Adjustments?

McKay took that big hit on a cheap WWE piledrive tackle in the first series of the Weber game. Ever since, he looks like a different QB. No confidence and he wants almost nothing to do with the ball.

[Bear Spray II]

It is interesting you mention losing his confidence. After the ISU game I mentioned he looked like he lost all of his confidence. The change in numbers is dramatic. He obviously has not lost talent/ability so what else is it. Coaching? Adjustments?

McKay took that big hit on a cheap WWE piledrive tackle in the first series of the Weber game. Ever since, he looks like a different QB. No confidence and he wants almost nothing to do with the ball.

Hard to say what the issue is. I thought he got his bell rung in the Idaho game but haven't confirmed. Anyone? I trust the coaches to put the best players out there & believe there's a reason McKay is starting, and I like Rovig. Our issues start with the O line and end with play calling. What worked in the first half of the year won't now - we have to adjust, & we have to let out O line shine.

[Lord Vigo]

The longer the season has gone on, the smaller the gap appears to be between McKay and Rovig. However, I still believe McKay is better.

And I agree with what's been mentioned about their supporting casts. Rovig had a better OL, a better group at RB, and a better group at WR.

Both players have to be complements on offenses that are driven by the run. McKay has fallen apart when the run game isn't working.

[catatac]

The longer the season has gone on, the smaller the gap appears to be between McKay and Rovig. However, I still believe McKay is better.

And I agree with what's been mentioned about their supporting casts. Rovig had a better OL, a better group at RB, and a better group at WR.

Both players have to be complements on offenses that are driven by the run. McKay has fallen apart when the run game isn't working.

This is 100% where I'm at with it. I watched the game again today, and man there were some plays where we were super close to tying it up or going ahead and we all know how that changes the dynamic of the game. Also was impressed with several throws MM made where the receivers didn't get it done. Also some impressive runs from MM. It's a team game.

[onceacat]

The longer the season has gone on, the smaller the gap appears to be between McKay and Rovig. However, I still believe McKay is better.

And I agree with what's been mentioned about their supporting casts. Rovig had a better OL, a better group at RB, and a better group at WR.

Both players have to be complements on offenses that are driven by the run. McKay has fallen apart when the run game isn't working.

This is 100% where I'm at with it. I watched the game again today, and man there were some plays where we were super close to tying it up or going ahead and we all know how that changes the dynamic of the game. Also was impressed with several throws MM made where the receivers didn't get it done. Also some impressive runs from MM. It's a team game.

I'd say a tough call. I love the element McKay brings with running. But its hard to overstate the importance of how the O Line play has impacted things.

Does anyone tally hurries & hits on college QBs? McKay must have been hit on 10 of his 30 drop backs. Probably hurried on at least 5 more. Mostly by blitzes that came in completely unblocked.

But, to your point, absent a change in scheme that gives our QB a chance, I'm not inclined to think that Rovig suddenly turns things around.

[catatac]

The longer the season has gone on, the smaller the gap appears to be between McKay and Rovig. However, I still believe McKay is better.

And I agree with what's been mentioned about their supporting casts. Rovig had a better OL, a better group at RB, and a better group at WR.

Both players have to be complements on offenses that are driven by the run. McKay has fallen apart when the run game isn't working.

This is 100% where I'm at with it. I watched the game again today, and man there were some plays where we were super close to tying it up or going ahead and we all know how that changes the dynamic of the game. Also was impressed with several throws MM made where the receivers didn't get it done. Also some impressive runs from MM. It's a team game.

I'd say a tough call. I love the element McKay brings with running. But its hard to overstate the importance of how the O Line play has impacted things.

Does anyone tally hurries & hits on college QBs? McKay must have been hit on 10 of his 30 drop backs. Probably hurried on at least 5 more. Mostly by blitzes that came in completely unblocked.

But, to your point, absent a change in scheme that gives our QB a chance, I'm not inclined to think that Rovig suddenly turns things around.

Ya, that's what I was saying, or agreeing to if it wasn't clear. Our OL made it super tough on MM. I trust our coaches to start the QB that gives us the best chance. Currently, that's MM. I doubt Rovig or any other QB gives us a better chance in 11 days but we'll see.

[Long Time Cat]

QB1 vs QB2

A lot of talk on this board about McKay vs Rovig and also about McKay’s performance since the Weber game. I have done some statistical analysis of the situation, so in the info below you will see a comparison of McKay vs. Rovig and an analysis of McKay pre-Weber and post-Weber. Statistics don’t tell the whole story for sure but there are clearly some interesting tidbits in here.

Here is McKay vs Rovig. Rovig started the last 8 games of the regular season and so this is a comparison of the last 8 games of the regular season for both players. McKay was 7-1 Rovig was 6-2. These are all totals except for long which is average.

Stat____Comp__Att___Pct_____Yds___YPA___TD___Int___Long___Sack___Rush___Tot Yds
McKay__103____171___60.2___1341___7.8____9____3____42.8____13____188____1529
Rovig___104____176___59.1___1160___6.6____9____3____38.5____7_____6.0____1166

To me the passing stats are surprisingly close although McKay, in no small part because of his running ability, has about a 30% edge in total yardage. Which is significant.

McKay vs McKay vs Rovig

Because there are not an equal number of games to compare pre-Weber to post-Weber these statistics are all averages. The Weber game itself is not included so there are 6 games pre and 4 games post. The Weber game was statistically Mckay's worst game of the year, 76 yards passing and 4.0 YPA. As an interesting side note I have included Rovig’s last 4 regular season games from 2019.

Stat____Comp__Att____Pct____Yds___YPA___TD___Int___Long___Sack___Rush___Tot Yds
Pre_____15.5___22.8__67.9____224___9.8___2.0___0.2__45.7____0.8____27.2___251.2
Post____12.0___22.5__53.3____135___6.0___0.8___0.4__41.6____2.2____30.6___165.6
Rovig___11.8___19.0__61.8____134___7.1___0.6___0.2__34.8____0.8____-2.4____131.6

This tells me that what many have suspected is true, McKay has gotten worse. Much worse in the passing department. A drop off of nearly 40% in yards per attempt. If that is the most important QB stat then Rovig is better. Total yards says McKay is still better than Rovig, because he is a better runner. My eyes tell me McKay has lost his confidence and, according to my tag line, that means more than stats.

Disclaimer: I calculated all of these statistics so it's possible there is a mistake in there but I assure you it wasn't intentional.

Its an interesting breakdown, but a big factor in that is the quality of opponents. The "pre" stats include much weaker opponents like Drake, San Diego, Cal Poly, UNC and includes 4 home games. The "post" stats include just 2 home games plus tougher defenses like the griz and even Idaho (yes they have some dudes in their front 7).
So I think we all agree that McKay is struggling since Weber (minus the EWU game), but there are other moving parts.

These are good observations and one more point to make is that MM stunk it up against both Weebs and Idaho State and then played a pretty good game against Eastern, after a bye week, so hopefully he can turn it around like he did at least once before. I also think this shows we are better off playing a team with a good offense than a good defense since his worst two games by far were Weber and UM.

[Helcat72]

We need a QB that can flush if and when needed, and will make quicker decisions whether that be to run, or throw. MM hesitates and thus makes throws into the middle zone almost impossible because the windows are smaller. He doesn't mind throwing to the outside because he can always throw it out of bounds. MM needs a garage door not a window due to his hesitation. He doesn't like to take hits (who does!), but against the Griz he threw passes to Lance that were very inaccurate because he just got rid of the ball to try to avoid it.
Watch the Sac St game and notice that their passing QB completed most of his passes over the middle. He didn't have any more time than MM, but he stood in with confidence and completed a lot of passes. That won the game!
At this late date MM may be our best chance, but I think Austin or Mellot may be our best bet to improve the offense next year if they can pull the trigger faster.

[technoCat]

One thing I've been thinking about today was that for all of MM's athleticism, have you ever seen him break the pocket on a pass play and scramble like we saw with Humphrey? Just the step up through a gap when the pocket washes around him? I wonder if being as big as it is actually makes that harder. I think I remember one time again Idaho that he actually made it out of the pocket and picked up 9.

[Helcat72]

He's pretty fast after about 10 yards, but just like throwing, he hesitates before running and that first ten yards is pretty slow. He's not very quick of mind or foot, consequently he takes a lot of sacks.

[onceacat]

He's pretty fast after about 10 yards, but just like throwing, he hesitates before running and that first ten yards is pretty slow. He's not very quick of mind or foot, consequently he takes a lot of sacks.

MSU is top 40 for sacks allowed. Some of that is a function of the fact that we don't drop back to pass very much, but allowing 1.6 sacks/game on 25 drop backs/game isn't really "giving up a lot of sacks"...Actually, its 180 degrees the opposite.