MSU vs UT-M mini-scouting report

[BWahlberg]

Alright, it’s the playoffs and the brawl is in the rearview mirror, I’ve done this before and happy to do it again. Just like the Griz – the cats have a much needed week off. However there’s a first round game that’ll send the winner to Bozeman. Here’s a few things to look at from each team in a somewhat mini scouting report.

Missouri State Bears 8-3

MSU, coached by Bobby Petrino, is on a 4 game winning streak heading into the playoffs. They’ve got a pretty good resume as well, of their losses one was at Oklahoma State, by 7. The other two were in-conference, a 27-20 loss to NDSU and a head scratching loss to 3-7 Youngstown State. That YSU loss probably cost MSU a chance at a seed. MSU has beat a few playoff bound teams as well, South Dakota 32-23, Southern Illinois 38-28, and UNI 34-27. They also beat then ranked UCA 43-34. MSU did make the spring playoffs but lost in the 1st round to North Dakota.

UT-Martin Skyhawks 9-2

UT-Martin saw a 9 game winning streak hit a wall with a loss last week to SEMO – a team that’s been in Bozeman a few times of late. Their only other loss this season was 52-21 to Western Kentucky (7-4). Being from a lower-tier conference they don’t have quite the opponent resume as MSU. They did beat then-ranked Jacksonville State on the road, 34-31. They actually played SEMO twice this year, they beat them earlier 38-30. They’re from the Ohio Valley Conference, where Austin Peay won the AQ in 2019 and came to Bozeman, they beat AP 17-16 this season.

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General Stats

Passing yards per game MSU (285 for MSU vs 175 for UT-M)
Rushing yards per game UT-M (156 for MSU vs 231 for UT-M)
Total offense MSU (441 for MSU vs 406 for UT-M)
Passing yards allowed per game UT-M (241 for MSU vs 220 for UT-M)
Rushing yards allowed per game Push (130 for MSU vs 130 for UT-M)
Total defense MSU (371 for MSU vs 350 for UT-M)

MSU is more of the passing team, UT-M the rushing team, they actually allow the same amount of rushing yards per game as well, which is pretty wild. MSU gets 3, UT-M gets 2.

Offense points scored MSU (34.5 for MSU vs 31.9 for UT-M)
Defense points allowed UT-M (24.6 for MSU vs 24.4 for UT-M)
Turnover margin UT-M – (+4 for MSU / +12 for UT-M)
Fieldgoal % MSU (87% for MSU vs 41% for UT-M)
Punt Returns UT-M (2 yards for MSU vs 5.8 yards for UT-M)
Kick Returns MSU (25 yards for MSU vs 14.9 yards for UT-M)
T.O.P. UT-M (31:32 for MSU vs 32:38 for UT-M)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) UT-M (71% MSU / 44% UT-M)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) UT-M (59% MSU / 74% UT-M)
3rd down offense MSU – (46% for MSU / 44% for UT-M)
3rd down defense MSU – (35% allowed for MSU vs 40% allowed for UT-M)

Kind of an all-over grab bag with who gets what for stats. MSU gets 5 while UT-M gets 6. That puts the final at 8-8 with 1 push. Wow.

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MSU Players to Watch:

#3 Jason Shelley, QB – A 5-11 Junior, he’s averaging 280 passing per game and about 30 rushing per game. He’s got 19 TDs to 6 INTs and he’s got 10 rushing TDs. Dual threat dude.

#19 Tyrone Scott, WR – A big 6-3 kid, I assume he’s going to get some MVFC all-conference team love. He has 1039 yards this season and 8 TDs.

#5 Kevon Latulas, RB – He has far less touches than #0 Tobias Little, but has more rushing yards with 617 and 3 TDs, he’s also got 175 receiving and 1 TD. As for #0 Tobias Little, he has 588 rushing and 9 TDs, he’s 6-0, 230.

#15 Kevin Ellis, DE – 6-4, 244, he’s 2nd best on the team with TFLs at 12 (#10 Tylar Wiltz has 12.5) and has a team high in sacks with 8, he’s also forced 3 fumbles.

UT-M Players to Watch:

#9 Keon Howard, QB – On the Walter Payton watch list, he’s also a dual threat kid. He’s got 470 rushing and 10 TDs to go with an average of about 181 passing per game with 15 TDs and 7 INTs.

#21 Zak Wallace, RB – a 220 pound freshman, he’s not listed as having started a single game, but has 745 rushing yards and 14 TDs this season.

#23 Peyton Logan, RB – The starter at RB, a smaller guy at 5-8, 190. He’s got 982 rushing and 3 rushing TDs. He’s also the 2nd leading receiver on the team with 24 catches for 242 yards and 3 more TDs there.

#18 John Ford, LB – A 6-3, 230 pound linebacker he’s 2nd on the team in tackles with 74, he’s got 5 TFLs and 0.5 sacks. He’s also tied for the most amount of interceptions with 3 – including a pick 6.

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Many times we see these matchups and the team from the far weaker division just cannot hang when facing tougher competition. Then we get instances like Austin Peay 2 years ago who upset Sac State. So there is some intrigue here with this game. UT-Martin is a run-heavy offense while MSU focuses more on the passing game, but does have a QB that can beat teams with his feet. I honestly have a hard time imagining an 8-3 MVFC team that lost to NDSU by 7 would drop this game, especially with UT-M dropping a late game to SEMO. My guess, it’s MSU vs MSU in a little less than 2 weeks with Bobby Petrino and crew coming to town. I’ll say Missouri State wins 41-17.

[91catAlum]

Thanks Brint, much appreciated! I also think it will be Missouri State coming to Bozeman unless something crazy happens.

[cats2506]

Thanks, always enjoy your scouting reports.

BTW I heard you guys with the GFP on the R&R Cat Cast, thought it was on of the best pre game listens with the roundtable.

[kwcat]

UT Martin
[media] [/media]
I wonder how Grady Robison is doing at WKU?
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[media] [/media]

[Bobcat4Ever]

Passing yards allowed per game UT-M (241 for MSU vs 220 for UT-M)
Rushing yards allowed per game Push (130 for MSU vs 130 for UT-M)
Total defense MSU (371 for MSU vs 350 for UT-M)

Total defense should go to UT-M as they allow less yards per game.

[jgrilley406]

Passing yards allowed per game UT-M (241 for MSU vs 220 for UT-M)
Rushing yards allowed per game Push (130 for MSU vs 130 for UT-M)
Total defense MSU (371 for MSU vs 350 for UT-M)

Total defense should go to UT-M as they allow less yards per game.

Even though I think this is almost the best case scenario as far as bracketing goes, besides actually getting the #1 seed, and I too think Missouri state wins this game against UT Martin, but I don’t think us beating them is going to be as easy as some people might think. They came in second in the MVFC, and they had the lead going into the 4th against NDSU, this team will be a tough out for us. Yes they lost to Youngstown but you look at there only wins on the year and all 3 of em are against playoff teams incarnate word, Missouri state and southern Illinois. Even Illinois state the other bottom feeder in that conference has two wins against playoff teams. That conference always beats each other up so I don’t take them losing to Youngstown as them not being a very tough opponent as some people might think.

[CatBot]

Thanks @BWahlberg! Very much appreciated.

[kwcat]

Passing yards allowed per game UT-M (241 for MSU vs 220 for UT-M)
Rushing yards allowed per game Push (130 for MSU vs 130 for UT-M)
Total defense MSU (371 for MSU vs 350 for UT-M)

Total defense should go to UT-M as they allow less yards per game.

Even though I think this is almost the best case scenario as far as bracketing goes, besides actually getting the #1 seed, and I too think Missouri state wins this game against UT Martin, but I don’t think us beating them is going to be as easy as some people might think. They came in second in the MVFC, and they had the lead going into the 4th against NDSU, this team will be a tough out for us. Yes they lost to Youngstown but you look at there only wins on the year and all 3 of em are against playoff teams incarnate word, Missouri state and southern Illinois. Even Illinois state the other bottom feeder in that conference has two wins against playoff teams. That conference always beats each other up so I don’t take them losing to Youngstown as them not being a very tough opponent as some people might think.

??
Missouri State lost to Oklahoma State ,Youngstown State, and North Dakota State. (I don’t think they played themselves.)
UT Martin lost to western Kentucky and southeast Missouri

[kennethnoisewater]

Passing yards allowed per game UT-M (241 for MSU vs 220 for UT-M)
Rushing yards allowed per game Push (130 for MSU vs 130 for UT-M)
Total defense MSU (371 for MSU vs 350 for UT-M)

Total defense should go to UT-M as they allow less yards per game.

Even though I think this is almost the best case scenario as far as bracketing goes, besides actually getting the #1 seed, and I too think Missouri state wins this game against UT Martin, but I don’t think us beating them is going to be as easy as some people might think. They came in second in the MVFC, and they had the lead going into the 4th against NDSU, this team will be a tough out for us. Yes they lost to Youngstown but you look at there only wins on the year and all 3 of em are against playoff teams incarnate word, Missouri state and southern Illinois. Even Illinois state the other bottom feeder in that conference has two wins against playoff teams. That conference always beats each other up so I don’t take them losing to Youngstown as them not being a very tough opponent as some people might think.

??
Missouri State lost to Oklahoma State ,Youngstown State, and North Dakota State. (I don’t think they played themselves.)
UT Martin lost to western Kentucky and southeast Missouri

That's Youngstown's wins...

[kwcat]

Passing yards allowed per game UT-M (241 for MSU vs 220 for UT-M)
Rushing yards allowed per game Push (130 for MSU vs 130 for UT-M)
Total defense MSU (371 for MSU vs 350 for UT-M)

Total defense should go to UT-M as they allow less yards per game.

Even though I think this is almost the best case scenario as far as bracketing goes, besides actually getting the #1 seed, and I too think Missouri state wins this game against UT Martin, but I don’t think us beating them is going to be as easy as some people might think. They came in second in the MVFC, and they had the lead going into the 4th against NDSU, this team will be a tough out for us. Yes they lost to Youngstown but you look at there only wins on the year and all 3 of em are against playoff teams incarnate word, Missouri state and southern Illinois. Even Illinois state the other bottom feeder in that conference has two wins against playoff teams. That conference always beats each other up so I don’t take them losing to Youngstown as them not being a very tough opponent as some people might think.

??
Missouri State lost to Oklahoma State ,Youngstown State, and North Dakota State. (I don’t think they played themselves.)
UT Martin lost to western Kentucky and southeast Missouri

That's Youngstown's wins...

thanks . Now I got it. Couldn’t figure out how that was relevant

[kwcat]

Bump

Wahlberg get a nice break down of UT Martin here