Path to the Playoffs - Week 8 - Conf Overview and Seeds

[Catprint]

Path to the Playoffs – WEEK 8 – First Half

This week I am trying something new. First, I am creating a new post because this year, for whatever reason, no one wants to engage in the longer posts and read the long diatribes. Second, I am splitting my post into two parts. The first part will look at the Big Sky Conference and the status of the top six teams (The only ones with a mathematical chance of 7 wins and a playoff berth) as well as looking at the Playoff status and Seed situation.

1) Big Sky Conference Status

Given I should have a life on the weekends but don’t, I took advantage of the magic of ESPN + and I watched all the Top BSC games into the late hours Saturday – Bobcats in person, all of Eastern/Weber; all of Griz/Idaho; and the first halves of Sac/NAU and Davis/Cal Poly. I use that rich experience (lol) as backdrop for my rating of top to bottom of the Top 6 for teams. My prediction record last weekend was again 5-1 giving me a 10-2 record over two weeks. The tough weeks are coming up. My grandson could have gone 10-2 the last two weeks.

Eastern Washington: Regardless of their loss, I believe Eastern still is the team to beat. They have never scored less than 34 and the have lots of offensive weapons. Watching the game on Saturday showed they can be beaten. But that doesn’t mean they will be and even if the Cats win on the 6th, Eastern will end up 9-2. I would have preferred Weber to play them tough but to lose, as I am a firm believer in Karma in the following game.

Sacramento State: The performance of Sac’s offense in the first half of the NAU game was a remarkable sight. Constant changes in play calling and trick plays and tempo offense. Their schedule is so light, I don’t see them losing except possibly to Davis. They are hitting on all cylinders and their defense is no slack either. They lead the Sky in rushing defense when looking only at conference games

Bobcats: Defense was bend but don’t break. Missing three starters certainly was evident on Saturday. The offense did not look good until the fourth quarter. Something has to give because 13 or 27 points is not going to beat Eastern and certainly will not take us far. I have a fair amount of concern about our offense. More in the next post.

Davis: Yes, UCD is 7-1 and ranked around #10 in all the polls, but they sure don’t have much pizazz. I watched Cal Poly hang around for the entire game. Sure, it was Davis’s rivalry game but this is the CP team that the Bobcats and Griz destroyed and had given up 46 points a game in their last five games. Maybe an off day, but I think Davis could lose to both Eastern and Sac State. I hope they beat Sac state but if not they end up 8-3.

Griz: Starting slow on Saturday, the offense looked challenged. I am still not sure whether their offense can score much against a top defense (Idaho’s is 111th ) but the remaining games before The Brawl lead me to believe Griz will be in the hunt for a seed and almost assured of a playoff spot barring a complete collapse. But see comments later about 6th place BSC team!

Weber: Well, last week I said Weber was out of the playoffs. They are still holding on by a thread. Their game performance was electrifying against the Eagles. The offensive display of innovation was exciting. Three quarterbacks; tons of unusual and trick plays. If they had taken that offense into our game, the score surely would have been different. Relentless defense. Maybe Weber is better than the record shows. While their schedule is very accommodating, it is going to be a difficult slog to a playoff bid.

Here is a summary of current records and my predicted records for the top six teams at the end of the season. As you can see, there is lots of fodder for who will get in the playoffs and who wins the conference title.



In addition, here is the CatPrint SOS stats using winning teams as a benchmark. After 8 weeks, the top six teams in the Big Sky own a total of three wins against teams that currently have a winning record. Overall, the top four teams have played a very weak conference schedule with BSC opponents having an average winning percentage of 32.1%. Not exactly the breakfast of champions. The Griz and Weber both have played a stronger schedule to this point with Weber having played three teams in the Sky with a winning record (not including JMU and Utah). Overall, the schedule Gods did not give Weber much to work with this year. It was a bad schedule draw.



My observation is we still don’t really know the depth of the Big Sky and which teams will come out at the top. The next three weeks provides us with four games where the top five teams clash. It could easily come down the final week of the season to determine who gets the autobid. Clearly, MSU and Sac State could tie by winning out. Realistically, I think 7-1 takes first place but that assumes Sac loses to UCD in the last week. Our chart shows there could be a tight group at the top. The tiebreakers for the top spot will be consider later but they could be complicated.

I will have some key stats in the next post to see if we can see any weak spots in the top six teams in the BSC.


2) Playoff Status and Seeds

Ok, I can’t pretend to be smarter than all the writers who pretend to be smarter than all the AD’s on the selection committee who pretend to be smarter than all the fans who pretend to be smarter than….. ok, so what to do? I thought this week; I would present an aggregate of where the top four (maybe 5?) sites have the BSC teams. Lots of speculation on other posts whether we get four or five teams in the playoffs. Frankly, it seems possible the BSC could get five teams. It is even on the edge, we could get six teams. In my chart, I give a relative seed to the 9-16 teams. I realize there is some funny business in this process and I understand regionalization. At the same time, if the committee struggles with whether Sac State or Davis gets a number 8 seed, they are not likely to have the #9 seed play the #1 seed right out of the gate. But that is only my guess.




Here is food for thought from those projections:

MSU sitting between 5th and 15th! Not actually unexpected because we have not played a tough schedule and we are an unknown in terms of real strength.

Sac State is going to move up on everyone’s charts until at least the last weekend. They should be 8-2 going into the Davis game and ranked in the top 10.

Big Sky could have 5 teams in the top 10 before the last game. Right now we have five in the top 15; the next highest conference is MVFC with three in the top 15.

Hero – Sam Herder likes the Big Sky and he has three teams seeded with one more right at the edge. He also thinks Weber could be in if they win out and get some help.

College Madness – This guy must have gone to NDSU. He has the Cats unseeded and playing Sac the first weekend for chance to play NDSU. This would be the worst possible set of brackets we could possibly be given. He only has two BSC teams seeded but five in the playoffs. He is the only one to seed Davis.

FCS Fans Nation – Brian McLaughlin – has lots of detail in his chart. But he seems to dismiss Sac state as he has Sac State last one in. That will change over the next two weeks.

Given so many BSC teams will be in the playoffs, some of us are going to play each other right out of the gate. It is likely teams that without a seed may play each other first game. MSU could play Davis or Sac State as the first game if Cats aren’t seeded.

Do the Griz get in at 8-3 even though they will be the 6th place finisher in the conference? Seems like with an FBS win and eight wins, they would but it would be odd. However, it would be really a disservice to leave out an 8-win team from the Big Sky, even if it was the Griz. If the Griz, win the Brawl then they are in at 9-2.

Could the Big Sky get four seeds again like 2019? This seems possible but less likely due to the schedule and current positioning. Right now, we have only three teams in the top 10 and Cats or EWU loser might drop out. Unfortunately, the bye week is coming at a good time to prepare for the game but not much opportunity to move up in the polls. This week, only ranked game is #3 SUI plays #16 UNI. The other teams above us have easy games but anything could happen.

A couple of tidbits I picked up from the sites beyond the standard knowledge (7 D-1 wins to be considered; SOS matters, won’t be matched against a conference foe in the first game if you played them during the season) is that FBS losses don’t count and D-II wins don’t count to the committee. So If Cats win 2 of the next three, their record is 8-2 in the eyes of the committee and if Eastern wins out, theirs will be 9-1 since they have a D-II victory. This gives us a leg up given our current record and Eastern playing a D-II school.

When you look at seeding and SOS, Per Massey, the worst SOS in the current top 10 teams are MSU (66th); SELA (65th) ; SHSU (61st) and UC Davis (55th). We have played a very lowbrow schedule. Not that Weber was horrible and they obviously played the lights out at Eastern. We still have to win 2 of 3 to get a seed at 9-2. I am fairly certain, barring a long line of upsets that a 8-3 record with no FBS win and maybe only one ranked win (Weber) will not award us a seed.

Give me your thoughts and arguments. In a couple of days, I will present some various stats and Damned Lies and give an overview of upcoming games and how those games might affect seeding and the committees view of the six BSC horsemen.

[vike_king]

My only argument is your statement that Cal Poly is Davis' rivalry game. Sac State is Davis' rivalry game, they are only 20 miles apart..if that.

Nice breakdown.

[84CatGrad]

I have neither the time nor expertise to even begin to illicit an educated response to your thorough dissertation but on behalf of all of us on BN I would like to award you a Doctorate of Extraneous Bobcat Football Analysis for your time and energy in creating this amazing report.

[BleedingBLue]

Well done.

In regards to Sac State I think they win out. The game against Davis will probably be close but I think they win the BSC and get a top 5 seed. Surprisingly they have a 2 QB system that actually works. If they can cut down on turnovers they could be a team to watch in the playoffs. I don't think they think are on of the 4 best teams in the country though.

[catatac]

Great analysis and I think you're very close. I'd rank the top 6 Big Sky teams right now as follows:

EWU
Sac
MSU
Weber
Davis
UM

[Catgotmytung]

Good Analysis, and I think you may be right that we need two more wins. We should handle Idaho and that means a win is needed over EWU or um. Neither is a gimme, and I'm concerned with what I've been seeing on offense and defense although I realize there have been some injuries. It seems like a lot of Ifanse's yards are coming from him breaking a tackle rather than a big hole being made available for him. I believe that more pass catchers need to be involved so defenses don't key on our wideouts. Defenses tend to stack the box on us and we need to make them pay for doing that. While there's been some improvement over the year, I don't think our offense, including blocking schemes, etc., is where it needs to be. This next game will really expose us if we can't keep EWU's defense off-kilter and constantly move the chains.

[coochorama42]

Nice work, as always. I will likely be bringing back my playoff projections post next week, but I remember from 2019 that I had 23 of 24 playoff teams and 7 of 8 seeds correct (it was a pretty easy year) and was most closely aligned with Sam Herder and Craig Haley. I think those two guys do a great job predicting what the committee will do. Brian McLaughlin is my least favorite, fwiw.

[Catprint]

Well done.

In regards to Sac State I think they win out. The game against Davis will probably be close but I think they win the BSC and get a top 5 seed. Surprisingly they have a 2 QB system that actually works. If they can cut down on turnovers they could be a team to watch in the playoffs. I don't think they think are on of the 4 best teams in the country though.

Frankly, even the best analysis leads one to defer to emotional wanderings and hopeful prayers. I want Sac State to lose to UC Davis so the Cats have a chance at tying for the crown. But honestly I cannot see Sac State losing a Big Sky game. I see them at 8-0 and winning the auto bid. At 9-2, they get a Top 4/5 seed. It will get interesting if - big if - Cats can pull one out at Eastern

[Catprint]

The problem of top seeds this year is a plethora of undefeated and 1 or 2 loss teams. There are 20 in the Top 25 and only three 2-loss teams in the top 15 and one of those is Sac State. At this point in 2019, the Cats were ranked just outside of the Top 10 with 3 losses. Now you have to go to number 15 for a 3 loss team. In addition, the number of top 10 teams dropping a game in the last two weeks is significantly less than in 2019 at the same point making it harder to climb back into the Top 10 after suffering a loss or two.

I think it will be extremely difficult for the Big Sky to get 4 seeds like they did in 2019. Already, it seems highly likely five seeds are taken by the CAA (Villanova, JMU), the MVFC (NDSU, Southern Ill.) and Sam Houston State. These teams all have fairly easy end of year schedules giving them a leg up to finish strong. That leaves only three seeds left up for grabs among the five Big Sky teams plus a couple other strong teams (SDSU, SELA). That is seven teams shoe horning into three seeds. More on this in Part II later this week as I look at the other conferences and who is left in the hunt for a Top Eight Seed.

[Catprint]

My only argument is your statement that Cal Poly is Davis' rivalry game. Sac State is Davis' rivalry game, they are only 20 miles apart..if that.

Nice breakdown.

I thought the same thing until I heard the TV announcers repeatedly called it the "rivalry game" Here is what Wikipedia says about it.

"The Battle for the Golden Horseshoe is an annual rivalry college football game played between the UC Davis Aggies and the Cal Poly Mustangs.[1] Although the two teams have met on the gridiron since 1939, the rivalry officially began with the 2004 game at Cal Poly. The winner of the game receives the Golden Horseshoe Trophy, which was also created in 2004 for the inaugural game. Due to a misunderstanding, both schools constructed a trophy for the rivalry and brought it to the inaugural game. The teams decided that the rivalry would adopt the trophy created by the winner of that game; UC Davis won 36–33 and was therefore allowed to make its trophy the official one to be exchanged in all subsequent meetings"

So it is so....

[vike_king]

My only argument is your statement that Cal Poly is Davis' rivalry game. Sac State is Davis' rivalry game, they are only 20 miles apart..if that.

Nice breakdown.

I thought the same thing until I heard the TV announcers repeatedly called it the "rivalry game" Here is what Wikipedia says about it.

"The Battle for the Golden Horseshoe is an annual rivalry college football game played between the UC Davis Aggies and the Cal Poly Mustangs.[1] Although the two teams have met on the gridiron since 1939, the rivalry officially began with the 2004 game at Cal Poly. The winner of the game receives the Golden Horseshoe Trophy, which was also created in 2004 for the inaugural game. Due to a misunderstanding, both schools constructed a trophy for the rivalry and brought it to the inaugural game. The teams decided that the rivalry would adopt the trophy created by the winner of that game; UC Davis won 36–33 and was therefore allowed to make its trophy the official one to be exchanged in all subsequent meetings"

So it is so....

Thanks for setting me straight!

[seataccat]

My only argument is your statement that Cal Poly is Davis' rivalry game. Sac State is Davis' rivalry game, they are only 20 miles apart..if that.

Nice breakdown.

If you ask anyone from UC Davis who their rival is it would be Cal Poly. They see sac state as a low life commuter school who they have traditionally kicked the crap out of. Poly is the academic equivalent and fellow ag school.