Who Gets In

[Catprint]

If Weber State (would have to beat EWU) and the Griz (would lose to Idaho) both finish at 7-4 do they both get in the playoffs as the 5th and 6th BSC teams if below scenario plays out. Or just one?
Possible finish of the top 4 BSC teams:
1. Cats 10-1 (8-0 conference)
2. EWU 9-2 (6-2 conference)
3. UC Davis 9-2 (6-2 conference)
4. Sac State 8-3 (7-1 conference)

No. Zero chance they get in under that scenario. I suppose there's a SLIGHT chance Weber would get in as the 5th but that would require several top 20 teams to meld down the stretch.

Really? I think a Weber team at 7-4 with a win in cheney would get in easy.

Yes they would. The committee actually uses how you are playing currently and if Weber wins out they would have won 5 straight with a quality win @ EWU. BSC gets 5 teams in frequently since the expansion, heck we had 4 seeds in 2019.

Big Sky has NEVER got 5 teams in the playoffs before or after the expansion. we only had 4 teams 4 times. (See more in Path to the Playoffs post.)

[coochorama42]

@Catprint, I agree that statistics do not lie, but I also think there has to be a growing perception that the Big Sky is now clearly the #2 conference in the country. This perception is helped by four wins against FBS programs this year.

I think 7 FBS/FCS wins puts you on the fence out of the Big Sky in the past and I am very confident in getting five playoff teams now if they all have 8+ FCS/FBS wins because the conference seems to be stronger at the top than the past.

If it plays out that the Big Sky gets five playoff teams, I think we can also point to the other big change in schedules in the conference - fewer teams are scheduling games against non-Division I teams.

TL;DR: I believe 8 FCS/FBS gets you in out of the Big Sky. Catprint makes a compelling case why Weber is already out.

[Prodigal Cat]

If Weber State (would have to beat EWU) and the Griz (would lose to Idaho) both finish at 7-4 do they both get in the playoffs as the 5th and 6th BSC teams if below scenario plays out. Or just one?
Possible finish of the top 4 BSC teams:
1. Cats 10-1 (8-0 conference)
2. EWU 9-2 (6-2 conference)
3. UC Davis 9-2 (6-2 conference)
4. Sac State 8-3 (7-1 conference)

No. Zero chance they get in under that scenario. I suppose there's a SLIGHT chance Weber would get in as the 5th but that would require several top 20 teams to meld down the stretch.

Really? I think a Weber team at 7-4 with a win in cheney would get in easy.

Yes they would. The committee actually uses how you are playing currently and if Weber wins out they would have won 5 straight with a quality win @ EWU. BSC gets 5 teams in frequently since the expansion, heck we had 4 seeds in 2019.

Big Sky has NEVER got 5 teams in the playoffs before or after the expansion. we only had 4 teams 4 times. (See more in Path to the Playoffs post.)

You are correct and I was wrong. I should not have said frequently. I thought there were a couple other years . However, I do take issue with you saying it's never happened. I know they played as an 'Independent' in 2019 but UND 1. Played a FULL BSC schedule 2. Those games counted for the members as a BSC game (including beating the Cats ) 3. UND made the playoffs based on the strength of that BSC schedule. They were by all intents and purposes a BSC team and they were the 5th team in after the four seeds of um, MSU, Weber, and Sac St.

Also I agree with cooch that 5 to 10 years ago BSC was viewed as the 3rd best conference behind the CAA and MVFC but now they are 2nd to maybe even equal to the MVFC (4 seeds in 2019) and very much ahead of the CAA. Getting 5 (a second time) is not out of the question.

[The Great Catsby]

If Weber State (would have to beat EWU) and the Griz (would lose to Idaho) both finish at 7-4 do they both get in the playoffs as the 5th and 6th BSC teams if below scenario plays out. Or just one?
Possible finish of the top 4 BSC teams:
1. Cats 10-1 (8-0 conference)
2. EWU 9-2 (6-2 conference)
3. UC Davis 9-2 (6-2 conference)
4. Sac State 8-3 (7-1 conference)

No. Zero chance they get in under that scenario. I suppose there's a SLIGHT chance Weber would get in as the 5th but that would require several top 20 teams to meld down the stretch.

Really? I think a Weber team at 7-4 with a win in cheney would get in easy.

A 7-4 griz team with a win at UW would have as good an argument too.

But I dont think we'll need to worry about this scenario. I think the griz win out until Cat/griz and would get in over Weber even if they beat EWU this weekend. But I dont see that either, Weber's D will hang in there but even if they hold EWU to say 24-28 points, their offense can't score that many.
Griz finish 8-3 and get in
Weebs finishes 6-5 and doesn't.

The Griz look pretty terrible right now. I'm not sure they can win this week let alone the next 4 before facing us.

[catatac]

If Weber State (would have to beat EWU) and the Griz (would lose to Idaho) both finish at 7-4 do they both get in the playoffs as the 5th and 6th BSC teams if below scenario plays out. Or just one?
Possible finish of the top 4 BSC teams:
1. Cats 10-1 (8-0 conference)
2. EWU 9-2 (6-2 conference)
3. UC Davis 9-2 (6-2 conference)
4. Sac State 8-3 (7-1 conference)

No. Zero chance they get in under that scenario. I suppose there's a SLIGHT chance Weber would get in as the 5th but that would require several top 20 teams to meld down the stretch.

Really? I think a Weber team at 7-4 with a win in cheney would get in easy.

A 7-4 griz team with a win at UW would have as good an argument too.

But I dont think we'll need to worry about this scenario. I think the griz win out until Cat/griz and would get in over Weber even if they beat EWU this weekend. But I dont see that either, Weber's D will hang in there but even if they hold EWU to say 24-28 points, their offense can't score that many.
Griz finish 8-3 and get in
Weebs finishes 6-5 and doesn't.

The Griz look pretty terrible right now. I'm not sure they can win this week let alone the next 4 before facing us.

Man. If they get dumped by that terrible Idaho team, I'm guessing that does it for this year's version of UM and Bobby loses the locker room. If I was betting this game I'd take UM. I've kinda had the NAU game circled for the Griz for an unexpected loss, still sticking with that.

[iaafan]

For the griz, put up the records of the teams they have beat. Fbs teams they have beat have 0 FBS wins.

Washington (FBS) has beat two FBS teams (Arkansas State and Cal).

WeLl, YeAh, bUt, ExCepT fOr ThOse tWo tHeY haVe 0 FbS WiNs!

[Catprint]

If Weber State (would have to beat EWU) and the Griz (would lose to Idaho) both finish at 7-4 do they both get in the playoffs as the 5th and 6th BSC teams if below scenario plays out. Or just one?
Possible finish of the top 4 BSC teams:
1. Cats 10-1 (8-0 conference)
2. EWU 9-2 (6-2 conference)
3. UC Davis 9-2 (6-2 conference)
4. Sac State 8-3 (7-1 conference)

No. Zero chance they get in under that scenario. I suppose there's a SLIGHT chance Weber would get in as the 5th but that would require several top 20 teams to meld down the stretch.

Really? I think a Weber team at 7-4 with a win in cheney would get in easy.

Yes they would. The committee actually uses how you are playing currently and if Weber wins out they would have won 5 straight with a quality win @ EWU. BSC gets 5 teams in frequently since the expansion, heck we had 4 seeds in 2019.

Big Sky has NEVER got 5 teams in the playoffs before or after the expansion. we only had 4 teams 4 times. (See more in Path to the Playoffs post.)

You are correct and I was wrong. I should not have said frequently. I thought there were a couple other years . However, I do take issue with you saying it's never happened. I know they played as an 'Independent' in 2019 but UND 1. Played a FULL BSC schedule 2. Those games counted for the members as a BSC game (including beating the Cats ) 3. UND made the playoffs based on the strength of that BSC schedule. They were by all intents and purposes a BSC team and they were the 5th team in after the four seeds of um, MSU, Weber, and Sac St.

Also I agree with cooch that 5 to 10 years ago BSC was viewed as the 3rd best conference behind the CAA and MVFC but now they are 2nd to maybe even equal to the MVFC (4 seeds in 2019) and very much ahead of the CAA. Getting 5 (a second time) is not out of the question.

Point well taken on UND. I honestly think if they had been in the conference standings, the committee would NOT have selected them but whose to say. However, i do agree we are the second best conference. Read the Path to the Playoffs for more details and how it is quite possible for this year for there to be five teams from the BSC in the playoffs. It does, however, require the Griz to win some games. I really don't think they are as bad as some people are inferring. I mean, Idaho and Dixie State are about on the same level, right? so they can win at least 3 more!

[CelticCat]

As much as I'd love to see Bobby and the Griz go down in flames, that loss to Sac isn't that bad of a loss and the Griz can and I think will right the ship.

If they lose to Idaho, they might as well quit football.

[onceacat]

As much as I'd love to see Bobby and the Griz go down in flames, that loss to Sac isn't that bad of a loss and the Griz can and I think will right the ship.

If they lose to Idaho, they might as well quit football.

I think NAU is a more likely loss. Not that NAU is great, but it’s always a tough trip. Maybe a 30-40% chance of the NAU upset.

[Marana CAT]

If Weber State and Northern Iowa win out they will both be at 7-4. If NDSU knocks off SDSU in two weeks the best SDSU can finish 8-3 however 1 of the wins is a non-counter. UM is not out of the fire just yet and could easily finish at 7-4.

Which 7-4 teams from the BSC & MVC get in?
1. UNI
2. SDSU
3. Weber
4. UM

I just don’t see UM getting in the playoffs at 7-4.

[BelligerentBobcat]

U of Washington is a joke. EWU would have beat UW by 30 points had they played them when UM did. No matter what happens, EWU will finish ranked and most likely in the top 10. At 7-4, WSU would get in before UM. Other then UW, Griz schedule is a pathetic.

EWU Sac State & MSU plus the FCS play up game? Thats likely to be 3 playoff teams

MSU is only playing Weber, EWU & the Griz. Only 2 playoff teams (assuming the Griz don't drop another)

EWU plays Weber, Davis, UM and UM (Weber, Davis, and MSU as consecutive games)

Weber plays MSU, Davis, EWU. (Credit where credit is due, they played JMU in the non-conference)

Davis plays EWU, Weber, and Sac

Sac only plays UM & Davis. (but they played Cal & UNI)

Sac has the easiest schedule, followed by the Cats, then Davis (Davis & the Cats are really close, you could flip those) then UM, then Weber.

I don't usually say nice things about the Griz, but I don't think we as Cat fans should be poking fun at the strength of anyones schedule.

So the griz play 3 playoff teams. They have lost 2 and will have lost all 3 of those games by the end of the season.

Just trying to keep things in perspective. Weber keeps losing to playoff teams, but all the posters here are convinced that they are the FCS reincarnation of the ‘85 Bears or the steel curtain. Weber isn’t goid, Griz aren’t really good…we will find out if the Cats & Eagles are good over the next month.

Yup. That EWU defense sure is better than Weber’s, huh?

[CatsFan10]

Next week will be telling that’s for sure. IMO we match up well against EWU. I think it’s tough to argue either side as to if we get 5 in or not. SAC might very well finish strong, EWU is basically a Lock, we need to win only 1 of our next 3 and we are in, i don’t see how UM loses until Cat/Griz, Weber is going to finish 7-4 and I don’t see a team outside the top 15 that can honestly say they’d beat Weber. It’s much like when Alabama lost and Fans wanted them outside the top 5 but how I look at rankings is who do you NOT wanna play. Weber at 19 or whatever they are ranked is a #19 NOBODY wants to play rn as EWU found out. They deserve to be there. Time too look into teams more than just their ranking and final scores.

[LTown Cat]

What if MSU loses out and finishes 7-4? Are the Cats in?

[Catsrgrood]

What if MSU loses out and finishes 7-4? Are the Cats in?

If that happened? No they wouldn’t be.

7-4 is a bubble record anyway, finishing with 3 straight losses, one of which would be to a not so good Idaho team, and Cats SOS is not great as is.
7-4 wouldn’t cut it this year for them.

[The MICKSTER]

Next week will be telling that’s for sure. IMO we match up well against EWU. I think it’s tough to argue either side as to if we get 5 in or not. SAC might very well finish strong, EWU is basically a Lock, we need to win only 1 of our next 3 and we are in, i don’t see how UM loses until Cat/Griz, Weber is going to finish 7-4 and I don’t see a team outside the top 15 that can honestly say they’d beat Weber. It’s much like when Alabama lost and Fans wanted them outside the top 5 but how I look at rankings is who do you NOT wanna play. Weber at 19 or whatever they are ranked is a #19 NOBODY wants to play rn as EWU found out. They deserve to be there. Time too look into teams more than just their ranking and final scores.

I could easily see um losing at NAU. NAU's only home loss was in the opener to #1 ranked Sam Houston, they have a P5 W vs Arizona and their offense is 3rd in the BSC at 488 yards/game (their defense gave up 656 yards to SAC though). Those things combined with the fact that um doesn't necessarily 'travel well' especially at 6900 ft. So I think the ? is....if um loses to NAU & the CATS, and finishes at 7-4 with loses @EWU, SAC, @NAU, MSU.....would they get in? I don't think they get in at 7-4 over a Weber at 7-4. So the BSC teams that would get in could be MSU, SAC, EWU, possibly UCD & WSU....leaving um out. Time will tell. GO CATS!

[jgrilley406]

If Weber State and Northern Iowa win out they will both be at 7-4. If NDSU knocks off SDSU in two weeks the best SDSU can finish 8-3 however 1 of the wins is a non-counter. UM is not out of the fire just yet and could easily finish at 7-4.

Which 7-4 teams from the BSC & MVC get in?
1. UNI
2. SDSU
3. Weber
4. UM

I just don’t see UM getting in the playoffs at 7-4.

Out of that list I’d say it goes in this order as far as who gets in : SDSU UNI Weber UM…Griz would be on a two game losing streak one of em to a non ranked opponent and have no wins vs the playoff field and their biggest win coming the first game of the year. Weber edges them out due to them being on a 5 game win streak and one of them being against EWU.

[catatac]

What if MSU loses out and finishes 7-4? Are the Cats in?

Highly doubt it, and if we lose the last three games we do not deserve to be in the playoffs. EWU is excellent and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose to them, I'm guessing they'll be favored by the odds makers. UM is a pretty good team, at this point I'd lean towards a CAT win but only 60-40 or so. Idaho completely sucks and it's our last reg season home game, we will pound them.

[CatsFan10]

Next week will be telling that’s for sure. IMO we match up well against EWU. I think it’s tough to argue either side as to if we get 5 in or not. SAC might very well finish strong, EWU is basically a Lock, we need to win only 1 of our next 3 and we are in, i don’t see how UM loses until Cat/Griz, Weber is going to finish 7-4 and I don’t see a team outside the top 15 that can honestly say they’d beat Weber. It’s much like when Alabama lost and Fans wanted them outside the top 5 but how I look at rankings is who do you NOT wanna play. Weber at 19 or whatever they are ranked is a #19 NOBODY wants to play rn as EWU found out. They deserve to be there. Time too look into teams more than just their ranking and final scores.

I could easily see um losing at NAU. NAU's only home loss was in the opener to #1 ranked Sam Houston, they have a P5 W vs Arizona and their offense is 3rd in the BSC at 488 yards/game (their defense gave up 656 yards to SAC though). Those things combined with the fact that um doesn't necessarily 'travel well' especially at 6900 ft. So I think the ? is....if um loses to NAU & the CATS, and finishes at 7-4 with loses @EWU, SAC, @NAU, MSU.....would they get in? I don't think they get in at 7-4 over a Weber at 7-4. So the BSC teams that would get in could be MSU, SAC, EWU, possibly UCD & WSU....leaving um out. Time will tell. GO CATS!

Very fair points. I agree Webs gets in at 7-4 over UM. I am just not sold on NAU this year to upset them, AZ is ranked ridiculously low in the Sargin rankings and for good reason. So the NAU win over AZ doesn’t impress me, neither does NAU losing against UNC. BUT I do think NAU is due one crazy game each year, maybe (hopefully) that’s the one. I think UCD finishes 8-3 where does that put them with 2 quality loses and 1 bad loss? So question is: what does the committee do with a finish like this?

MSU: 10-1
EWU: 9-2
SAC: 9-2
UCD: 8-3
UM: 8-3 can UM argue they’re better than UCD? (Yes they can, they’ll tell you all day about how good they were in 2001). But is it factual?
WSU: 7-4 (unfortunately out at 7-4) when realistically they beat any team #15-25. I’ll argue that all day and IMO better than the griz.

[PortlandCat90]

Most likely scenario is that BBQU wins out (6-2; 7-4) and UM (5-3; 8-3) loses to the Cats.

BBQU finishes higher in the conference standings - is that taken into consideration?

[CatsFan10]

Most likely scenario is that BBQU wins out (6-2; 7-4) and UM (5-3; 8-3) loses to the Cats.

BBQU finishes higher in the conference standings - is that taken into consideration?

I hope it is, like I said the committee needs to look more into teams than just final scores and overall records. Ask anyone in the top 10 which team they don’t wanna play that’s ranked 11-25 or NR, and right now the answer is Weber. They finally got healthy when we played them and look what they did. Beat EWU and barely lost to us. JMU and UCD caught them at a great time. UM is lucky they don’t have to play them.