Weekly Playoff Predictions - Week Three

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coochorama42
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Weekly Playoff Predictions - Week Three

Post by coochorama42 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:50 pm

Like in 2019, I’ll l be doing weekly updates on the current projected playoff field. Early in the season, there will be significant movement from one tier to another, but later in the season things tend to stabilize a bit. Looking at the Stats Perform FCS Top 25, there is significant recency bias favoring teams that did well this past spring, and undervaluing teams that performed well in 2019. This is not a “best teams” discussion but instead what I think is a semi-realistic look at what the playoff field looks like as the season unfolds. Last week featured big wins for Northern Iowa (at Sacramento State) and Missouri State (vs. Central Arkansas). The big game this week is obviously James Madison at Weber State, but it is also worth keeping your eye on Richmond at Villanova, which features two CAA playoff contenders. Things will start changing significantly as we reach conference play.

First Tier – These are the teams that I see having a legitimate chance at a top 2 playoff seed (if everything breaks right). Each should make the playoffs unless they underperform significantly. Teams are ranked by probability of “earning” a top seed based upon their current record, the strength of their schedule, and the quality of their team.

South Dakota State, Missouri Valley Conference (0-0 FCS, FBS Win) – SDSU has lost their last two starting QB to knee injuries so it’ll be up to their grad transfer to see whether they can build upon their national title experience last season. A big FBS win @ Colorado State is a good start. Key FCS Matchups include: vs. Southern Illinois (October 9), vs. North Dakota State (November 6), vs. North Dakota (November 20). Big wins: @ Colorado State.

Montana, Big Sky Conference (1-0 FCS, FBS Win) – I think Montana State has the better football team, but I know the Grizzlies have the easier FCS schedule. Montana should be able to sleepwalk their way to seven FCS wins. A huge win at Washington likely gets them a top two seed if they finish the year undefeated, which is quite unlikely. The defense is certainly for real, but the offense is a work-in-progress. Key FCS Matchups include: @ Eastern Washington (October 2), vs. Sacramento State (October 16), vs. Montana State (November 20). Big wins: @ Washington.

UC Davis, Big Sky Conference (1-0 FCS, FBS Win) – UC Davis wins a big game @ Tulsa and puts themselves into the drivers seat for a high seed if they can win out. The November 13 game vs. Eastern Washington may mean the difference between a seed or no seed. Key FCS Matchups: @ Weber State (September 25), vs. Eastern Washington (November 13), vs. Sacramento State (November 20). Big wins: @ Tulsa.

Eastern Washington, Big Sky Conference (0-0 FCS, FBS win) – The FBS win against UNLV gives EWU a path to a top seed. They will have to earn it with a tough Big Sky schedule. Key FCS Matchups: vs. Montana (October 2), vs. Weber State (October 23), vs. Montana State (November 6), @ UC Davis (November 13).

Sam Houston, Western Athletic Conference (2-0 FCS) – Sam Houston has the luxury of having a schedule that should hand them seven wins on a silver platter – and this didn’t include the season opener at Northern Arizona. I really believe that the best 4-5 teams from the MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA will be a lot better than Sam Houston after a full season of high-level competition, but this is the team in the top two tiers that has the easiest path to a top two seed as their schedule is the easiest. That being said, week one was not kind to Sam Houston as FCS contenders South Dakota State, Montana, UC Davis, and Eastern Washington earned FBS wins that will enhance their playoff resume come November. Key FCS Matchups include: @ Central Arkansas (September 25), vs. Jacksonville State (October 23).

James Madison, Colonial Athletic Association (2-0 FCS) – JMU actually has an interesting FCS schedule, with games on the road against Weber State and Delaware. That being said, I don’t feel like JMU should be an underdog in any game this season. I think this team has a chance to make it through the regular season without a loss, but it will be very difficult to do so. Unlike Sam Houston, James Madison has a better case for a top seed even without an FBS win if they defeat Weber State on the road and the Wildcats win the Big Sky. Key FCS Matchups include: @ Weber State (September 18), vs. Villanova (October 9), @ Delaware (October 23).

North Dakota State, Missouri Valley Conference (2-0 FCS) – NDSU will be looking to rebound from a subpar performance last spring. While the Bison catch a break by not having to play a highly regarded Southern Illinois team in the regular season, they do have their two most challenging games on the road. I expect them to rebound this year and make a run at a perfect regular season. Like Sam Houston, NDSU loses ground early in the seeding race because of the big FBS wins in the MVFC and Big Sky. Key FCS Matchups include: @ North Dakota (October 2), @ South Dakota State (November 6).

Second Tier – These teams are likely just as good as the teams in the First Tier, but they either start the season lower in the rankings or have a very difficult schedule. It is possible these teams do not make the playoffs, but it is much more likely that they have a playoff bye.

Weber State, Big Sky Conference (1-0 FCS) – I give the Wildcats a slight edge over MSU just because the head-to-head matchup is in Ogden a week after their bye. They are always talented and well coached. Key FCS matchups include: vs. James Madison (September 18), vs. Montana State (October 15), @ Eastern Washington (October 23).

Montana State, Big Sky Conference (1-0 FCS) – The schedule makers really didn’t smile on MSU this year. The Bobcats go on the road to play both Weber State and Eastern Washington a week after each team’s bye week. I think this is the best team in the Big Sky, but they will have to win three big games on the road to earn a top seed. The loss to Wyoming will not hurt this team much as they get to take on two FBS game winners in EWU and UM. Key FCS matchups include: @ Weber State (October 15), @ Eastern Washington (November 6), @ Montana (November 20).

Southern Illinois, Missouri Valley Conference (1-0 FCS) – Southern Illinois is coming off a strong playoff performance after a long playoff drought. I am not confident that this team is for real, but they did shore up some weaknesses on defense with a host of FBS transfers. I’m keeping them in tier two because they don’t have North Dakota State on their schedule and they are starting the season very high in the FCS rankings. Key FCS matchups include: @ South Dakota State (October 9), vs. North Dakota (October 16), @ Northern Iowa (October 30).

North Dakota, Missouri Valley Conference (1-0 FCS) – North Dakota was 10-0 at home in the past two seasons, but only 2-7 on the road. Poor road performance might be the thing that keeps them from an FBS upset (@ Utah State). Their FCS road schedule this year (@ Idaho State, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, and South Dakota State) may cause them real problems. Of all the teams in tier two, this is the team I think has the highest probability of missing the playoffs. Key FCS matchups include: vs. North Dakota State (October 2), @ Southern Illinois (October 16), @ Missouri State (October 30), @ South Dakota State (November 20).

East Tennessee State University, Southern Conference (0-0 FCS, FBS win) – They beat Vanderbilt. There’s not much more to say. Unless they fall apart in league play, they probably get a playoff bid.

Jacksonville State, Atlantic Sun Conference (0-0 FCS) – Not scoring – at home – against UAB (an FBS team) is not a good start. Winning @ Florida State redeems them. Key FCS Matchups: @ Kennesaw State (October 2), @ Sam Houston (October 23), vs. Central Arkansas (October 30). Prediction: 7-4 overall, 7-1 vs. FCS). Big wins: @ Florida State.

Northern Iowa, Missouri Valley Conference (1-0 FCS) – Note: Brutal Schedule. Key FCS Matchups: @ Sacramento State (September 11), @ North Dakota State (October 9), @ South Dakota State (October 23), @ Illinois State (November 6), @ Missouri State (November 13). Big wins: @ Sacramento State.

Third Tier – These are teams that start with solid rankings in the FCS poll or are contenders in the top 3 conferences most years. I will slowly include write-ups on these teams as we begin to see them in action. Until then, I will provide key FCS matchups and predictions.

Delaware, Colonial Athletic Association (2-0 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: vs. James Madison (October 23), vs. Villanova (November 20).

Villanova, Colonial Athletic Association (2-0 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: @ James Madison (October 30), @ Delaware (November 20).

Missouri State, Missouri Valley Conference (1-0 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: vs. Central Arkansas (September 11), @ Illinois State (October 2), @ North Dakota State (October 23), vs. North Dakota (October 30), vs. Northern Iowa (November 13). Big wins: vs. Central Arkansas.

Southeastern Louisiana, Southland Conference (1-0 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: @ Nicholls State (October 9), vs. Nicholls State (November 18).

Nicholls State, Southland Conference (0-0 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: vs. Southeastern Louisiana (October 9), @ Southeastern Louisiana (November 18).

Monmouth, Big South (1-0 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: vs. Princeton (October 9), @ North Carolina A&T (October 30), @ Kennesaw State (November 20).

Kennesaw State, Atlantic Sun Conference (0-0 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: vs. Jacksonville State (October 2), vs. North Carolina A&T (October 16), vs. Monmouth (November 20).

North Carolina A&T, Big South (0-1 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: @ Kennesaw State (October 16), vs. Monmouth (October 30). Prediction: 8-3 overall, 8-2 vs. FCS. Bad loss: @ Furman.

Central Arkansas, Atlantic Sun Conference (0-1 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: @ Missouri State (September 11), vs. Sam Houston (September 25), vs. Jacksonville State (October 30).

Sacramento State, Big Sky Conference (1-1 FCS) – Key FCS Matchups: vs. Northern Iowa (September 11), @ Montana (October 16), @ UC Davis (November 20).

Here is my updated playoff field prediction after two weeks of play. This is a pseudo-prediction for the rest of the season. It differs significantly from the tiers above because I just cannot see teams from the Big Sky or Missouri Valley conference making it through the season undefeated in the FCS (except maybe NDSU or SDSU). JMU – on the other hand – likely has an easy run if they make it past Weber State.

First, the seeds:
1. Sam Houston (automatic bid – Atlantic Sun + Western Athletic Conference)
2. James Madison (automatic bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
3. South Dakota State (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Conference)
4. Montana (automatic bid – Big Sky Conference)
5. North Dakota State (automatic bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
6. Eastern Washington (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
7. Montana State University (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
8. Delaware (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)

Other automatic bids:
Monmouth (Big South)
Duquesne/Central Connecticut State/Sacred Heart (Northeast Conference)
Davidson (Pioneer League)
VMI/Chattanooga (Southern Conference)
Holy Cross (Patriot League) – Note: Holy Cross had an FBS win @ Connecticut.
Austin Peay/Southeast Missouri State/Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)
Southeastern Louisiana (Southland Conference)

This leaves nine additional at large bids. Here’s my best guess at who earns those bids:

Villanova (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
Nicholls State (at-large bid – Southland Conference)
Jacksonville State – (at-large bid – Atlantic Sun Conference)
Southern Illinois (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Conference)
Weber State (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
UC Davis (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
North Dakota (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Conference)
Northern Iowa (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Conference)
East Tennessee State (at-large bid – Southern Conference)

Also keep an eye on:
Richmond – Colonial Athletic Conference
New Hampshire – Colonial Athletic Conference
Rhode Island – Colonial Athletic Conference
Albany – Colonial Athletic Conference
Missouri State – Missouri Valley Conference
Illinois State – Missouri Valley Conference
Sacramento State – Big Sky Conference
Alabama A&M – Southwestern Athletic Conference
Alcorn State – Southwestern Athletic Conference
South Carolina State – Mideastern Athletic Conference
Samford – Southern Conference
Kennesaw State – Atlantic Sun Conference
Central Arkansas – Atlantic Sun Conference



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PapaG
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Re: Weekly Playoff Predictions - Week Three

Post by PapaG » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:35 pm

Good read and I like how you focused on the schedules. I didn’t know MSU plays both Weber and EWU on the road after their bye weeks. Ridiculous!


Seattle to Billings to Missoula to Bozeman to Portland to Billings

What a ride

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