Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

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cats2506
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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by cats2506 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:53 am

RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:39 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:31 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:21 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:16 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:11 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:04 am


You do realize that it is signifigently flatter than was projected, now do deaths on the curve.
You do realize that they don't make projections and related decisions based on deaths. They look at hospitalizations and percentage of positive tests.
there have been projections for all of the above, cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Saying that they were not making those types of projections early in the outbreak is just revisionist history.
Of course they modeled those numbers, but deciding to mandate masks and other steps is not based on the projected death number. The death number is bad, but a hollow number when making future projections on decisions on steps to be taken to prevent future deaths.
Deciding to mandate masks is based on politics and not on science or any other projections.
Remember early in the outbreak when every scientist out there was saying that "masks don't work", they were either lying then or are lying now, they may have reasons for the lies but all they have established is that they are willing to lie to meet their own objectives.
because they never had any experience with corona type viruses before? This type of virus has been around for years (SARS I and SARS II are relatives).

They knew they had a mask shortage so instead of saying that, they lied and said they don't work. Now they want to keep the fear up so they want to require them for everyone, meanwhile reducing testing so they can point to reduced cases (false positives) as results of the mask mandate.

The motives are political and have always been, it has very little to do with saving lives.

Or making adjustments as they learn more about the virus. But keep wearing that tinfoil hat.


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by LCH » Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:53 am

As I stated PCR testing is highly accurate. Hence its use as a confirmatory test. Many small labs don't have access to this method and not all methods are very accurate especially if procedures are not followed to the letter. Again the false positives were discovered by confirmatory testing and were correctly reported.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by RationalGriz » Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:56 am

cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:31 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:21 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:16 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:11 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:04 am


You do realize that it is signifigently flatter than was projected, now do deaths on the curve.
You do realize that they don't make projections and related decisions based on deaths. They look at hospitalizations and percentage of positive tests.
there have been projections for all of the above, cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Saying that they were not making those types of projections early in the outbreak is just revisionist history.
Of course they modeled those numbers, but deciding to mandate masks and other steps is not based on the projected death number. The death number is bad, but a hollow number when making future projections on decisions on steps to be taken to prevent future deaths.
Deciding to mandate masks is based on politics and not on science or any other projections.
Remember early in the outbreak when every scientist out there was saying that "masks don't work", they were either lying then or are lying now, they may have reasons for the lies but all they have established is that they are willing to lie to meet their own objectives.

EDIT: second point, using positive test numbers is false too, we know there is an issue with false positives and there are major reporting inconsistencies.
And I can without a doubt tell you that there are false negatives also. But even so, you need to base decisions on the best information available.



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cats2506
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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by cats2506 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:01 am

CelticCat wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:34 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:31 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:21 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:16 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:11 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:04 am


You do realize that it is signifigently flatter than was projected, now do deaths on the curve.
You do realize that they don't make projections and related decisions based on deaths. They look at hospitalizations and percentage of positive tests.
there have been projections for all of the above, cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Saying that they were not making those types of projections early in the outbreak is just revisionist history.
Of course they modeled those numbers, but deciding to mandate masks and other steps is not based on the projected death number. The death number is bad, but a hollow number when making future projections on decisions on steps to be taken to prevent future deaths.
Deciding to mandate masks is based on politics and not on science or any other projections.
Remember early in the outbreak when every scientist out there was saying that "masks don't work", they were either lying then or are lying now, they may have reasons for the lies but all they have established is that they are willing to lie to meet their own objectives.
I don't understand why this is such a sticking point? They learned more about the virus, they changed their viewpoints on masks based on their new findings. Why is that so hard to understand?
They are not backing it up with any data, all the previous random studies showed that cloth masks are not effective and that they may be detrimental is used incorrectly.

The video I posted earlier about the ineffectiveness of mask has been fact checked by facebook, they call it misleading since it used studies from 2010 to 2019 (pre Wuhan Flu), but they show no data or studies to show that masks are effective, just quotes from "scientist" and politicians saying that they the think they are now effective. They are basically throwing out actual scientific studies for some peoples hypothesis.


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by cats2506 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:02 am

RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:56 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:31 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:21 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:16 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:11 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:04 am


You do realize that it is signifigently flatter than was projected, now do deaths on the curve.
You do realize that they don't make projections and related decisions based on deaths. They look at hospitalizations and percentage of positive tests.
there have been projections for all of the above, cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Saying that they were not making those types of projections early in the outbreak is just revisionist history.
Of course they modeled those numbers, but deciding to mandate masks and other steps is not based on the projected death number. The death number is bad, but a hollow number when making future projections on decisions on steps to be taken to prevent future deaths.
Deciding to mandate masks is based on politics and not on science or any other projections.
Remember early in the outbreak when every scientist out there was saying that "masks don't work", they were either lying then or are lying now, they may have reasons for the lies but all they have established is that they are willing to lie to meet their own objectives.

EDIT: second point, using positive test numbers is false too, we know there is an issue with false positives and there are major reporting inconsistencies.
And I can without a doubt tell you that there are false negatives also. But even so, you need to base decisions on the best information available.
50% false positives is not what I would consider good information, I wouldn't base any decision on that.


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by RationalGriz » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:05 am

cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:02 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:56 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:31 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:21 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:16 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:11 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:04 am


You do realize that it is signifigently flatter than was projected, now do deaths on the curve.
You do realize that they don't make projections and related decisions based on deaths. They look at hospitalizations and percentage of positive tests.
there have been projections for all of the above, cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Saying that they were not making those types of projections early in the outbreak is just revisionist history.
Of course they modeled those numbers, but deciding to mandate masks and other steps is not based on the projected death number. The death number is bad, but a hollow number when making future projections on decisions on steps to be taken to prevent future deaths.

Deciding to mandate masks is based on politics and not on science or any other projections.
Remember early in the outbreak when every scientist out there was saying that "masks don't work", they were either lying then or are lying now, they may have reasons for the lies but all they have established is that they are willing to lie to meet their own objectives.

EDIT: second point, using positive test numbers is false too, we know there is an issue with false positives and there are major reporting inconsistencies.
And I can without a doubt tell you that there are false negatives also. But even so, you need to base decisions on the best information available.
50% false positives is not what I would consider good information, I wouldn't base any decision on that.
50% huh. But I get it, there is no reason to even bother since this is all just a political stunt. Carry-on.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by Cataholic » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:06 am

LCH wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:53 am
As I stated PCR testing is highly accurate. Hence its use as a confirmatory test. Many small labs don't have access to this method and not all methods are very accurate especially if procedures are not followed to the letter. Again the false positives were discovered by confirmatory testing and were correctly reported.
Regardless of the accuracy of the tests, there have been all kinds of anomalies in the data reported. Following is just one example. Not sure if this is political or there are other reasons, but it hard to have 100% confidence in the data.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-man-ki ... ta-1518994



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by LCH » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:12 am

There is no 100% accurate data. You make decisions based on the best data available and go from there.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by cats2506 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:14 am

LCH wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:53 am
As I stated PCR testing is highly accurate. Hence its use as a confirmatory test. Many small labs don't have access to this method and not all methods are very accurate especially if procedures are not followed to the letter. Again the false positives were discovered by confirmatory testing and were correctly reported.
Total numbers of cases does not drop, they consider a positive test a case but don't remove it from the total number of cases.

This is not scientific but it is an example, in Fergus county we have only had 4 cases, the first 2 were out of state, before, during and after the test, I have no idea what their situation was. Recently 2 young people tested positive, one of them tested negative twice a few days later. I would assume that you would call that a false positive. We currently have no active cases so that implies that the other recent case was also a false positive. Less than a week after the testing we had no active cases. BUT we still show as having 4 total cases in the county. Call it misreporting or whatever you want but at least 1 false positive has not been removed from the total. that amounts to 25% in Fergus County. I don't know the other recent individual but if they were a false positive that would put the error at 50%.

Simple logic says that something smells fishy


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by cats2506 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:17 am

RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:05 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:02 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:56 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:31 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:21 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:16 am
RationalGriz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:11 am
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:04 am


You do realize that it is signifigently flatter than was projected, now do deaths on the curve.
You do realize that they don't make projections and related decisions based on deaths. They look at hospitalizations and percentage of positive tests.
there have been projections for all of the above, cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Saying that they were not making those types of projections early in the outbreak is just revisionist history.
Of course they modeled those numbers, but deciding to mandate masks and other steps is not based on the projected death number. The death number is bad, but a hollow number when making future projections on decisions on steps to be taken to prevent future deaths.

Deciding to mandate masks is based on politics and not on science or any other projections.
Remember early in the outbreak when every scientist out there was saying that "masks don't work", they were either lying then or are lying now, they may have reasons for the lies but all they have established is that they are willing to lie to meet their own objectives.

EDIT: second point, using positive test numbers is false too, we know there is an issue with false positives and there are major reporting inconsistencies.
And I can without a doubt tell you that there are false negatives also. But even so, you need to base decisions on the best information available.
50% false positives is not what I would consider good information, I wouldn't base any decision on that.
50% huh. But I get it, there is no reason to even bother since this is all just a political stunt. Carry-on.
The posted article had 40 out of 90 false positives, 44%, close enough for me

Do you base your decisions on a 44% error rate and say "Its the best data we have" and ignore the errors


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by cats2506 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:21 am

LCH wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:12 am
There is no 100% accurate data. You make decisions based on the best data available and go from there.
If it was 90% accurate I would take it, hell even 80%, but we really have no randomized data and we have no way to evaluate the accuracy of any of it, add in the political motives of some and it becomes absurd to base any major decisions on flawed testing and reporting.


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by Cataholic » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:27 am

LCH wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:12 am
There is no 100% accurate data. You make decisions based on the best data available and go from there.
True, but every decision and action made today seems to have a political reason behind it. Trump wouldn’t wear a mask, so it became a rallying point for the left to push for wearing masks. Trump saying he would not wear a mask was childish and left the door open for criticism. His advisors need to get him to think about public reaction and public perception before he makes statements, otherwise he will lose the election in November.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by catatac » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:37 am

LCH wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:33 am
Just for perspective. More people have died of Covid in 7 months than died as combat deaths WWI,Korea,Vietnam,the Gulf War,Afghanistan,and the Iraq wars combined.
Just for perspective... 70 MILLION people died last year, and it will be about the same in 2020. Old people die.


Great time to be a BOBCAT!

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by LCH » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:40 am

Once again the false positives were discovered through confirmatory testing. Incorrect results were not reported. This is like having a circular argument with a 2 year old except my 2 year olds were more rational. You win I quit trying to explain this to you.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by ilovethecats » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:48 am

For the sake of getting ahead of this virus, we MUST figure this testing out. It's a nightmare and I now have first hand experience with it.

Two of my employees got calls this week saying that they tested positive for the virus. NEITHER ONE OF THEM GOT TESTED!!! This is a major issue in my view as I assume this isn't an isolated issue. It's a mess.

Ironically, I had one employee actually GET tested on Wednesday as he had spent a day with someone who tested positive. He's still waiting for those results. In the meantime I obviously can't have him working.

I've heard there is no continuity in the contact tracing either but have not had any direct experience with that. But talking to a couple other business owners, it appears some ask for ALL people a positive person has been around while others are only asking for people a positive person has been around for 15 minutes or more and without the presence of masks. With the new mandate it seems odd. But I know of one business for certain that had no choice but to close for a period of time because while doing the contact tracing the positive person gave the names of every employee in the building!

Everyone knows my stance on this, but I would hope that we could agree that the testing simply must get better. Especially if we're going to make all the rules and mandates on these tests. But in just my one example in little old Bozeman, Montana I know that there are at least two positive cases that are not positive cases. To be clear, I'm not suggesting they were reported as such. But it shows that we have major testing issues is all I'm saying. How often is this going on? How often are there false negatives? Those seem just as bad. Hopefully this can get fixed sooner rather than later.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by PapaG » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:54 am

BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:55 pm
Arguing with a dude like PapaG is pointless. He will argue on the board, tell you to PM him as to why you think he is being stupid, unreasonable, an a**hole or what have you, then argue with you in the PMs. And nobody will ever convince him differently because he is the type of dude that will tell people they are wrong because he hasn't seen any proof.
Welcome to almost three years ago. Geez, I sure made an impression on you. I forgot we ever PM’d. I’m glad I could touch your heart!


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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by bobcat99 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:01 am

PapaG wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:54 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:55 pm
Arguing with a dude like PapaG is pointless. He will argue on the board, tell you to PM him as to why you think he is being stupid, unreasonable, an a**hole or what have you, then argue with you in the PMs. And nobody will ever convince him differently because he is the type of dude that will tell people they are wrong because he hasn't seen any proof.
Welcome to almost three years ago. Geez, I sure made an impression on you. I forgot we ever PM’d. I’m glad I could touch your heart!
You do have a well earned reputation.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by LCH » Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:09 am

Agreed, testing must get better. Trying to gear up a testing program from 0 to 15,000 tests a week in Montana ( the stated goal by Governor Bullock) for a novel pathogen is no small feat. Hopefully we have the fortitude to pull it off. Designing a new clinical test and testing program is no insignificant task. It would help greatly to have some standard methods throughout the country.



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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by PapaG » Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:12 am

bobcat99 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:01 am
PapaG wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:54 am
BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:55 pm
Arguing with a dude like PapaG is pointless. He will argue on the board, tell you to PM him as to why you think he is being stupid, unreasonable, an a**hole or what have you, then argue with you in the PMs. And nobody will ever convince him differently because he is the type of dude that will tell people they are wrong because he hasn't seen any proof.
Welcome to almost three years ago. Geez, I sure made an impression on you. I forgot we ever PM’d. I’m glad I could touch your heart!
You do have a well earned reputation.
Digressing, re-reading it, BleedingBlue and I had a very short and positive PM conversation. Odd flex by him here but whatever. Have we cured cancer, I mean, Covid yet in this thread?


Greg K.

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Re: Jeff Welsch Says Fall Football is Toast

Post by PapaG » Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:23 am

Yep, stop the tests. Can’t have that mortality rate collapse even more.



Greg K.

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