The Bobcat Nation

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:02 pm

Hey rivercat I also have a BS in Micro from MSU. When did you graduate?

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.

The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:41 pm

My point is that the hand wringing about schools opening and sports being cancelled is a gross over reaction. There, I said it. Sports should not be cancelled. My point is that we should be socially responsible and go about our business as usual. My point is we should focus efforts on protecting the vulnerable.

Here's an interesting exercise for you Tom. Consider the population in Montana that may, in even the slightest possibility, have encountered a grizzly bear this year. Hikers, campers, fishers, residents of the Rocky Mountain front, etc. Now count the number of attacks this year. Do the math and you'll see that said population is way more likely to get chewed on than to die of Covid. There's some risk analysis perspective.

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:41 pm

My point is that the hand wringing about schools opening and sports being cancelled is a gross over reaction. There, I said it. Sports should not be cancelled. My point is that we should be socially responsible and go about our business as usual. My point is we should focus efforts on protecting the vulnerable.

Here's an interesting exercise for you Tom. Consider the population in Montana that may, in even the slightest possibility, have encountered a grizzly bear this year. Hikers, campers, fishers, residents of the Rocky Mountain front, etc. Now count the number of attacks this year. Do the math and you'll see that said population is way more likely to get chewed on than to die of Covid. There's some risk analysis perspective.

Cataholic wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 pm

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.

The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.

Nice posts Rivercat. Here is an article that states over 40% of Covid deaths in the US are nursing home related.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

You make a lot of sense, but political agendas will keep our country terrified from returning to normalcy until the election is over.

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:42 am

Cataholic wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 pm

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.

The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.

Nice posts Rivercat. Here is an article that states over 40% of Covid deaths in the US are nursing home related.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

You make a lot of sense, but political agendas will keep our country terrified from returning to normalcy until the election is over.

Thanks for the article. I'll wager we see that percentage go even higher. The article cites Montana as having 3 nursing home related deaths when there are more 20 deaths between the two facilities in Shelby and Billings alone.

TomCat88 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:17 am

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:42 am

Cataholic wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 pm

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.

The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.

Nice posts Rivercat. Here is an article that states over 40% of Covid deaths in the US are nursing home related.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

You make a lot of sense, but political agendas will keep our country terrified from returning to normalcy until the election is over.

Thanks for the article. I'll wager we see that percentage go even higher. The article cites Montana as having 3 nursing home related deaths when there are more 20 deaths between the two facilities in Shelby and Billings alone.

I’ve yet to see an argument stating most deaths aren’t in nursing homes (age related). I’ve seen an argument that old person deaths aren’t as significant as young deaths, but didn’t see anyone argue that.

TomCat88 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:17 am

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:42 am

Cataholic wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 pm

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.

The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.

Nice posts Rivercat. Here is an article that states over 40% of Covid deaths in the US are nursing home related.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

You make a lot of sense, but political agendas will keep our country terrified from returning to normalcy until the election is over.

Thanks for the article. I'll wager we see that percentage go even higher. The article cites Montana as having 3 nursing home related deaths when there are more 20 deaths between the two facilities in Shelby and Billings alone.

I’ve yet to see an argument stating most deaths aren’t in nursing homes (age related). I’ve seen an argument that old person deaths aren’t as significant as young deaths, but didn’t see anyone argue that.

catsrback76 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:31 am

TomCat88 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:17 am

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:42 am

Cataholic wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 pm

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.

The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.

Nice posts Rivercat. Here is an article that states over 40% of Covid deaths in the US are nursing home related.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

You make a lot of sense, but political agendas will keep our country terrified from returning to normalcy until the election is over.

Thanks for the article. I'll wager we see that percentage go even higher. The article cites Montana as having 3 nursing home related deaths when there are more 20 deaths between the two facilities in Shelby and Billings alone.

I’ve yet to see an argument stating most deaths aren’t in nursing homes (age related). I’ve seen an argument that old person deaths aren’t as significant as young deaths, but didn’t see anyone argue that.

Well, I've heard that not all death are created equal. As someone who has held the hands of both young and old at deaths door, I didn't really see a difference.

TomCat88 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:55 am

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:41 pm

My point is that the hand wringing about schools opening and sports being cancelled is a gross over reaction. There, I said it. Sports should not be cancelled. My point is that we should be socially responsible and go about our business as usual. My point is we should focus efforts on protecting the vulnerable.

Here's an interesting exercise for you Tom. Consider the population in Montana that may, in even the slightest possibility, have encountered a grizzly bear this year. Hikers, campers, fishers, residents of the Rocky Mountain front, etc. Now count the number of attacks this year. Do the math and you'll see that said population is way more likely to get chewed on than to die of Covid. There's some risk analysis perspective.

That’s exactly what is happening in Montana. Sports are not being cancelled. I already agreed with you that death for the vast majority of Americans is very rare. I think almost everyone agrees with that.

I think if death was the only factor, then this would be less of an issue.

PHAT CAT wrote: ↑

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:26 pm

The majority of Idaho players, don't want to play the season. So they're out.

catsrback76 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:31 am

TomCat88 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:17 am

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:42 am

Cataholic wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 pm

rivercat wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:18 pm

LCH wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pm

So far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.

The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.

It is becoming more and more published that the mortality rate is really between 0.5 to 1% and the vast majority of deaths are elderly or individuals with pre-morbity conditions. This population should be afraid of this virus. That is the whole point of my post. Protect them and everyone else should practice good hygiene and go about life. The economy doesn't need to shut down again, schools can open (elderly teachers may need to sit out), and, in my opinion, sports can proceed with fans. My parents, in their late 70's won't attend games for the first time in many years which is the responsible decision for them.

Nice posts Rivercat. Here is an article that states over 40% of Covid deaths in the US are nursing home related.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

You make a lot of sense, but political agendas will keep our country terrified from returning to normalcy until the election is over.

Thanks for the article. I'll wager we see that percentage go even higher. The article cites Montana as having 3 nursing home related deaths when there are more 20 deaths between the two facilities in Shelby and Billings alone.

I’ve yet to see an argument stating most deaths aren’t in nursing homes (age related). I’ve seen an argument that old person deaths aren’t as significant as young deaths, but didn’t see anyone argue that.

Well, I've heard that not all death are created equal. As someone who has held the hands of both young and old at deaths door, I didn't really see a difference.