Re: Covid hits MSU athletes
Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:03 am
There seems to be lots of opinions on when herd immunity is effective. The University of Texas says 60% to 70% of the population to be effective.
Actually the flu vaccine is only about 60% effective on a good year and can be as bad as 15-20% effective when they completely get it wrong. Only about 45-50% of the population gets the flu vaccine in a given year. Estimates are that will be up quite a bit this year due to the covid scare.LCH wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:48 amThe flu vaccine does not produce "herd immunity". First, the flu vaccine is nowhere near 100% effective,closer to 60-70% depending on the year. And 2nd, as you pointed out,not everyone gets the flu vaccine, hence tens of thousands of flu related deaths in a bad year.
Herd immunity isn't the same for all diseases. How contagious a disease is plays a big part in that threshold. I've read estimates that also put herd immunity for covid around 80%.ibleedblue wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:14 pmActually the flu vaccine is only about 60% effective on a good year and can be as bad as 15-20% effective when they completely get it wrong. Only about 45-50% of the population gets the flu vaccine in a given year. Estimates are that will be up quite a bit this year due to the covid scare.LCH wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:48 amThe flu vaccine does not produce "herd immunity". First, the flu vaccine is nowhere near 100% effective,closer to 60-70% depending on the year. And 2nd, as you pointed out,not everyone gets the flu vaccine, hence tens of thousands of flu related deaths in a bad year.
Also most reputable organizations state that about 80% is the key target number for herd immunity.
Again, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???The Butcher wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 amThis isn't good, yesterday COVID:
UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568
UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
Roughly the same as BASE jumping or meth addiction...somewhere around 1% CFR.arvcat2 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:22 pmAgain, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???The Butcher wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 amThis isn't good, yesterday COVID:
UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568
UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
OK, I guess I’m in the ballpark with less than ½ of 1% diagnosed and dying FROM this virus.onceacat wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:08 pmRoughly the same as BASE jumping or meth addiction...somewhere around 1% CFR.arvcat2 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:22 pmAgain, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???The Butcher wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 amThis isn't good, yesterday COVID:
UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568
UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
And I am really worried that the next time a flu virus hits that we will be forced to mask up, maybe even goggle up. They are trying to make us live in fear...arvcat2 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:06 amOK, I guess I’m in the ballpark with less than ½ of 1% diagnosed and dying FROM this virus.onceacat wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:08 pmRoughly the same as BASE jumping or meth addiction...somewhere around 1% CFR.arvcat2 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:22 pmAgain, what is the mortality rate or survivability rate if you are diagnosed???The Butcher wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:29 amThis isn't good, yesterday COVID:
UK new cases (population 66.7 million)
846
USA new cases (population 328 million)
68,568
UK tests per 1,000 residents
232
USA tests per 1,000 residents
173
Coronamania, shutdowns (businesses/jobs, schools, sports, “nonessential” medical care, religious services-unless you’re a hero of the left), suicides, and on and on, is worse than the corona virus.
LCH wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pmSo far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.
The problem with your statistics is the testing is not random. It is concentrated on symptomatic individuals and people identified as close contacts of infected individuals. It is therefore skewed higher.LCH wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pmSo far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.
And your point is?TomCat88 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:04 pmLCH wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pmSo far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.
seataccat is RACIST!Cataholic wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:08 pmPretty f-ing classy Seattacat.seataccat wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pmYep, in two weeks if it all goes away we'll know Trump was right. In the mean time everyone is playing along with the hoax like Herman Cain.Cataholic wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:50 pmWhat??? Then that would mean that Trump was right about “this eventually going away”? Hmmm... maybe his handling wasn’t so bad after all.seataccat wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:49 amIn that case we will reach herd immunity in about another two weeks and the death numbers will drop to a trickle. I suppose we'll know if your right very soon.catatac wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:34 amDoesn't surprise me. I'm sticking with my theory that half the country currently has, or has had this thing.The Butcher wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:22 amThe small local college in my town started testing athletes for the fall season. So far they have over 30 positive cases, and not all athletes are in town yet.
By the way, I never said it was a hoax. I have maintained in multiple posts that it is very dangerous to older people. I have also thought that more people have been infected than we realize and hope we are moving to herd immunity. You seemed to share that hope as well, but just my mention of Trump causes you to lash out. You have a bad case of TDS.
We're in agreement that we as members of the human race have a responsibility to our fellow man (& woman). Where the final statistics fall will be interesting. Having a BS in microbiology from MSU, I would love to be back in epidemiology class in a year or two.LCH wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:08 pmBasically then rivercat we agree. The only thing I would say is that among people tested (which includes sentinel testing) the rates of positive cases and the rate of death hold. I agree that the numbers may not project to the entire population, however at least 40% of our population has a pre- existing condition of diabetes,cancer,heart disease, or obesity. I don't want to shut down society again and if people just stop being stupid we shouldn't have to.
He mentioned wearing a mask, so I was busting him with this article. I agree, and I think the entire scientific community agrees, that Covid isn't deadly for the vast majority of the population. I think that's been known for quite a while, hasn't it? I'm not sure why you're pointing that out.rivercat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:29 pmAnd your point is?TomCat88 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:04 pmLCH wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:21 pmSo far in the US we have run 59,065,600 tests. Of these, 4,747,018 or 8% have been positive, this includes asymptomatic cases. Of the 4,747,018 positive cases 157,394 have died, or 3.3%. If you project this rate of positive tests and rate of death out over the 330,000,000 or so Americans you come up with about 871,200 deaths. These are the actual numbers, if you are OK with that fine. No one has to be afraid of the virus but if you don't respect it and it is too much of an imposition to wear a mask and social distance I don't know what to say.
LCH was responding to my post where I say I have no problem with wearing a mask and that we all should abide by best practices. I'll go further and state that those spouting liberty over wearing a mask are selfish fools.
My point is that the COVID virus is not deadly for the vast majority of the population.