Covid hits MSU athletes

[MSU01]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

THIS is why its all so confusing, and why many people dare to question the "experts". You hear doom and gloom in the media 24/7 and how everything is blowing up again (even heard a rumor Bullock was going to move MT back to phase 1!!!); then you see the data presented like this and it seems like things are really improving.
Why is it so hard to get honest, real information?!?

It's not hard at all to get real information. The amount of publicly available data that's out there on Covid-19 is massive. We just have to take the time to research and think for ourselves instead of relying on others to do so.

[thefrank1]

Great post MSU01!

[91catAlum]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

THIS is why its all so confusing, and why many people dare to question the "experts". You hear doom and gloom in the media 24/7 and how everything is blowing up again (even heard a rumor Bullock was going to move MT back to phase 1!!!); then you see the data presented like this and it seems like things are really improving.
Why is it so hard to get honest, real information?!?

It's not hard at all to get real information. The amount of publicly available data that's out there on Covid-19 is massive. We just have to take the time to research and think for ourselves instead of relying on others to do so.

Yes the raw data is publicly available, but i guess what I'm saying is, can a layperson evaluate it and draw hard conclusions and have confidence in them, when those conclusions contradict the media and many experts? It would sure be nice if everyone was agreeing on the conclusions, wouldn't it?

[iaafan]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

THIS is why its all so confusing, and why many people dare to question the "experts". You hear doom and gloom in the media 24/7 and how everything is blowing up again (even heard a rumor Bullock was going to move MT back to phase 1!!!); then you see the data presented like this and it seems like things are really improving.
Why is it so hard to get honest, real information?!?

It's not hard at all to get real information. The amount of publicly available data that's out there on Covid-19 is massive. We just have to take the time to research and think for ourselves instead of relying on others to do so.

Yes the raw data is publicly available, but i guess what I'm saying is, can a layperson evaluate it and draw hard conclusions and have confidence in them, when those conclusions contradict the media and many experts? It would sure be nice if everyone was agreeing on the conclusions, wouldn't it?

The experts tend to be vague on their evaluations and they express that they don't have all the answers. If you watch the back-n-forth between Rand Paul and Dr. Fauci, you'll see what I mean. The experts that act like they do have answers are usually off. The problem with novel viruses is that they are just that...novel. Being novel means we can only learn about them as we go. We still don't know exactly how contagious or deadly coronavirus is. It could be much worse or much better than we've experienced so far.

As we've discussed, you and I don't perceive the media in the same way. I see the media reporting the news and I don't read much bias into it. I can read a story by Fox or CNN and come away feeling like I understand what's going on facts/news-wise. So the media regarding Covid has been pretty accurate on both sides. I don't feel scared or feel safe regardless of what outlet I'm reading/viewing.

[MSU01]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

THIS is why its all so confusing, and why many people dare to question the "experts". You hear doom and gloom in the media 24/7 and how everything is blowing up again (even heard a rumor Bullock was going to move MT back to phase 1!!!); then you see the data presented like this and it seems like things are really improving.
Why is it so hard to get honest, real information?!?

It's not hard at all to get real information. The amount of publicly available data that's out there on Covid-19 is massive. We just have to take the time to research and think for ourselves instead of relying on others to do so.

Yes the raw data is publicly available, but i guess what I'm saying is, can a layperson evaluate it and draw hard conclusions and have confidence in them, when those conclusions contradict the media and many experts? It would sure be nice if everyone was agreeing on the conclusions, wouldn't it?

I don't consider myself an expert in any way on virology, but I feel like I can look at the data in its various forms and notice trends in the various metrics that can be used to measure the spread of the virus (e.g. cases, deaths, positive test rate, total numbers of tests, etc.). The media does tend to focus on case numbers, which is a fraction of the overall picture a well-informed person should be looking at.

It's hard to draw conclusions though in the middle of this process, as there's still more we don't know about the virus than what we do know. Making predictions is a vastly more complex process because it involves making assumptions on things like asymptomatic case rate, the effect of social distancing/mask wearing on the spread, and so on. There will always be a range of possibilities when we move to making predictions about future trends. It would be nice if the experts agreed but it's not going to happen - I can barely get my family to agree on what's for dinner tonight.

[catatac]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

[Blixtonz]

Nicely put. Any chance you have a degree in Economics from MSU?

[Cataholic]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

This might be the best write up I have ever seen on the data. I actually think it merits national attention.

[onceacat]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

This might be the best write up I have ever seen on the data. I actually think it merits national attention.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. The people who died on June 27 probably contracted Covid in May, or maybe early June. In 3 weeks, if deaths are still at 200+/- per day, we get to celebrate. If deaths start to increase around the 4th, then we know that the celebration was premature.

I guess I'm a "hope for the best, plan for the worst" sort of guy.

[ilovethecats]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

Holy crap that is good info. You might get bashed pretty good for it, or your stats will be labeled “misinformation”, but I appreciate the effort in this post.

FYI, if you posted something this great, with data to back it up; something about how deadly this virus is.....you’d have much better success.

[Cataholic]

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

This might be the best write up I have ever seen on the data. I actually think it merits national attention.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. The people who died on June 27 probably contracted Covid in May, or maybe early June. In 3 weeks, if deaths are still at 200+/- per day, we get to celebrate. If deaths start to increase around the 4th, then we know that the celebration was premature.

I guess I'm a "hope for the best, plan for the worst" sort of guy.

Actually, I believe he is comparing “like” data from each period. The early period and the late period both have the “lag” built into the numbers.

[Hawks86]

[Hawks86]

[The Butcher]

No joke. Wear a mask and social distance and we get college football! Otherwise the season in in jeopardy...

[CelticCat]

The fact is you can interpret the data however you want, but if if you really want college football then do your part, and tell others to do the same.

[Helcat72]

Just look at the graph of Europe vs the graph of the USA. They are way down...we are on the way into unknown territory. Take it anyway you want
I'm hoping for football like crazy but I don't see it happening. We don't live in a vacuum there are other teams and a lot of fans...older ones!

[catatac]

Just look at the graph of Europe vs the graph of the USA. They are way down...we are on the way into unknown territory. Take it anyway you want
I'm hoping for football like crazy but I don't see it happening. We don't live in a vacuum there are other teams and a lot of fans...older ones!

What do the death charts look like for Europe versus U.S.?

[TomCat88]

No joke. Wear a mask and social distance and we get college football! Otherwise the season in in jeopardy...

Man things sure flipped in a hurry. 2-3 weeks ago, everything looked like it was on its way back to normalcy. Now it looks like there's one last shot to get this done and there's only a month to do it.

[PHAT CAT]

Just look at the graph of Europe vs the graph of the USA. They are way down...we are on the way into unknown territory. Take it anyway you want
I'm hoping for football like crazy but I don't see it happening. We don't live in a vacuum there are other teams and a lot of fans...older ones!

What do the death charts look like for Europe versus U.S.?

This!!! I don't trust the CDC for ******.

[TomCat88]

Yup.